{"id":12928,"date":"2016-10-03T09:30:11","date_gmt":"2016-10-03T07:30:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=12928"},"modified":"2024-05-23T15:42:10","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T13:42:10","slug":"%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e7%9a%84%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-2-4-%e5%88%86%e5%89%b2%e5%92%8c%e6%ba%a2%e5%87%ba%e7%9a%84%e6%83%85%e6%99%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/03\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-sc-2-4-partition-and-spill-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.4 Partition and Spill Over"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Featured image: United Nations Photo, [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0], via Flickr In our previous article, we detailed a partition scenario where Libya splits into independent states along tribal and provincial lines, as well as a north-south axis, and in the one before, we focused on various possible spill over. This article focuses on a combination of the two cases, partition and spill over scenarios. In the first scenario, the Amazigh, Tuareg, and Toubou tribes outright declare independence and break away from the Libyan state, which leads to significant spill over in Algeria, Niger, and Chad. In the second scenario, Libya is partitioned along provincial lines, which leads to spill over in all directions. In the last scenario, Libya splits apart along &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/03\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-sc-2-4-partition-and-spill-over\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cScenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.4 Partition and Spill Over\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=12928\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Featured image: United Nations Photo, [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0], via Flickr In our previous article, we detailed a partition scenario where Libya splits into independent states along tribal and provincial lines, as well as a north-south axis, and in the one before, we focused on various possible spill over. This article focuses on a combination of the two cases, partition and spill over scenarios. In the first scenario, the Amazigh, Tuareg, and Toubou tribes outright declare independence and break away from the Libyan state, which leads to significant spill over in Algeria, Niger, and Chad. In the second scenario, Libya is partitioned along provincial lines, which leads to spill over in all directions. In the last scenario, Libya splits apart along &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/03\/scenarios-for-the-future-of-libya-sc-2-4-partition-and-spill-over\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cScenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.4 Partition and Spill Over\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=12928\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":14885,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2502,312,2499,3247,2500],"tags":[1789,2317,2163,2060,1862,1210,2033,1643,1033],"class_list":["post-12928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","category-sub-saharan-africa","tag-featured","tag-libya","tag-libyan-tribes","tag-libyan-war","tag-partition","tag-risk","tag-scenario","tag-spill-over","tag-uncertainty","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 2.4 Partition and Spill Over &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article focuses on partition and spill over scenarios for Libya. 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