{"id":13090,"date":"2016-10-24T10:00:57","date_gmt":"2016-10-24T08:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=13090"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:36:26","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:36:26","slug":"%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-1-islamist-libya\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3--3.1 \u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u5206\u6cbb\u548c\u5916\u6ea2\u7684\u5b50\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\u662f\u5916\u6ea2\u5230\u90bb\u56fd\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u7cfb\u5217\u60c5\u666f2\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5185\u6218\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u5373\u5730\u5f62\u6216\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u89c1\u7c73\u5207\u5c14\uff0c\"\u672a\u6765\u4e09\u81f3\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u666f\"\uff0c2015\u5e746\u67081\u65e5\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u62c9\u6c83\u514b\u65af\uff0c\"\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u6790\u672a\u6765\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\uff084\uff09\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u672c\u6587\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e24\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559\u5f92\u6216\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5728\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u5168\u9762\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u60c5\u666f... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-1-islamist-libya\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3--\u7b2c3.1\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=13090\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e09\u4e2a\u5206\u6cbb\u548c\u5916\u6ea2\u7684\u5b50\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5373\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\u662f\u5916\u6ea2\u5230\u90bb\u56fd\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u7cfb\u5217\u60c5\u666f2\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5185\u6218\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u5373\u5730\u5f62\u6216\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u89c1\u7c73\u5207\u5c14\uff0c\"\u672a\u6765\u4e09\u81f3\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u666f\"\uff0c2015\u5e746\u67081\u65e5\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u62c9\u6c83\u514b\u65af\uff0c\"\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u6790\u672a\u6765\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\uff084\uff09\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e7412\u670830\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u672c\u6587\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e24\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559\u5f92\u6216\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u5728\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u5168\u9762\u80dc\u5229\u3002\u60c5\u666f... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/scenarios-future-libya-sc-3-1-islamist-libya\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3--\u7b2c3.1\u90e8\u5206\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=13090\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":13096,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,2499,3247],"tags":[1789,695,2317,2163,466,2033,2331],"class_list":["post-13090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-featured","tag-indicator","tag-libya","tag-libyan-tribes","tag-muslim-brotherhood","tag-scenario","tag-warning","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/\u573a\u666f-\u672a\u6765-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a-sc-3-1-\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In our previous article we detailed three sub-scenarios of combined partition and spill over where Libya disappears as such through the creation of three new states, while consequent weaknesses is the cause of spill over to neighboring nations. We thus concluded the series of scenarios 2, which depicted a continuing civil war but with different &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cScenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya\u201dThis content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/\u573a\u666f-\u672a\u6765-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a-sc-3-1-\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"372\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@jbmitchell1212\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"14 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/51268d86724cf8a939cfc4f20643ccd6\"},\"headline\":\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2804,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/Misrata-Photo.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"indicator\",\"Libya\",\"Libyan tribes\",\"Muslim Brotherhood\",\"scenario\",\"warning\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Libya and Scenarios\",\"Middle-East and North Africa\",\"Real World Examples of Scenarios\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\",\"name\":\"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/Misrata-Photo.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/24\\\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/Misrata-Photo.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/10\\\/Misrata-Photo.jpg\",\"width\":672,\"height\":372},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"description\":\"Strategic Foresight &amp; Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/51268d86724cf8a939cfc4f20643ccd6\",\"name\":\"Jon Mitchell (Ma)\",\"description\":\"He is an independent researcher and writer pursuing his MA in Public Policy \u2013 International Affairs from Liberty University, U.S.. He has contributed to a political-economic analysis report for a non-profit international organization, compiled an unofficial analysis report on Boko Haram for a U.S. Congressional Committee, and writes articles for Foreign Policy Journal. While interning with the Hudson Institute, he researched critical regional security issues and analyzed complex international challenges in their Center for Political-Military Analysis.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/jonbmitchell\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/jbmitchell1212\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/jonmitchell\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u60c5\u666f\u2014\u2014\u60c5\u666f3.1\uff1a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a \u2022 Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/\u573a\u666f-\u672a\u6765-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a-sc-3-1-\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"In our previous article we detailed three sub-scenarios of combined partition and spill over where Libya disappears as such through the creation of three new states, while consequent weaknesses is the cause of spill over to neighboring nations. We thus concluded the series of scenarios 2, which depicted a continuing civil war but with different &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cScenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya\u201dThis content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/\u573a\u666f-\u672a\u6765-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a-sc-3-1-\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559-\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00","og_image":[{"width":672,"height":372,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Jon Mitchell (Ma)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@jbmitchell1212","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u4f5c\u8005":"Jon Mitchell (Ma)","\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4":"14 \u5206"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/"},"author":{"name":"Jon Mitchell (Ma)","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/51268d86724cf8a939cfc4f20643ccd6"},"headline":"Scenarios for the Future of Libya \u2013 Sc 3.1 An Islamist Libya","datePublished":"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00","dateModified":"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/"},"wordCount":2804,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg","keywords":["featured","indicator","Libya","Libyan tribes","Muslim Brotherhood","scenario","warning"],"articleSection":["Libya and Scenarios","Middle-East and North Africa","Real World Examples of Scenarios"],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/","name":"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u60c5\u666f\u2014\u2014\u60c5\u666f3.1\uff1a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a \u2022 Red Team Analysis Society","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg","datePublished":"2016-10-24T08:00:57+00:00","dateModified":"2021-10-08T10:36:26+00:00","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2016\/10\/24\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-sc-3-1-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e6%95%99-%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg","width":672,"height":372},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","name":"\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240","description":"\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u4e0e\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66 \uff65 \u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669 \u00b7 \u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization","name":"\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Red Team Analysis Society"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/helenelavoix\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/5403964\/admin\/dashboard\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/51268d86724cf8a939cfc4f20643ccd6","name":"\u4e54\u6069-\u7c73\u5207\u5c14\uff08\u9a6c\uff09","description":"\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u548c\u4f5c\u5bb6\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u81ea\u7531\u5927\u5b66\u653b\u8bfb\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56-\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u3002\u4ed6\u66fe\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u8425\u5229\u6027\u56fd\u9645\u7ec4\u7ec7\u64b0\u5199\u653f\u6cbb\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5206\u6790\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u4f1a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7f16\u64b0\u5173\u4e8e\u535a\u79d1\u5723\u5730\u7684\u975e\u5b98\u65b9\u5206\u6790\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u300a\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\u64b0\u5199\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u5728\u54c8\u5fb7\u900a\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5b9e\u4e60\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5176\u653f\u6cbb-\u519b\u4e8b\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u590d\u6742\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u6311\u6218\u3002","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/jonbmitchell","https:\/\/x.com\/jbmitchell1212"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/author\/jonmitchell\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Misrata-Photo.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/156"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13090"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13090\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}