{"id":1351,"date":"2012-04-08T07:58:42","date_gmt":"2012-04-08T05:58:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=1351"},"modified":"2025-06-26T16:00:56","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T14:00:56","slug":"%e6%bd%9c%e5%9c%a8%e7%9a%84%e5%8e%8b%e5%8a%9b%e5%92%8c%e4%ba%8b%e4%bb%b6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/04\/08\/potential-pressures-and-events\/","title":{"rendered":"2218 EVT - \u60b2\u5267\u4e8b\u4ef6"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u60b2\u60e8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u88ad\u51fb\u4e86 Everstate\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u7779\u4e86\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u91cd\u5927\u5de5\u4e1a\u4e8b\u6545\uff0c\u800c\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u53c8\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5168\u7403\u3001\u5730\u533a\u548c Everstate \u5185\u90e8\u6240\u505a\u6216\u672a\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u4e3b\u5bb0 Everstate \u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5e94\u4f7f\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5bf9\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u8fdb\u884c\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5c06\u653e\u5728\u9996\u4f4d\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c06\u4ee5\u53d7\u60c5\u666f\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5178\u578b\u5e74\u4efd<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff08\u6700\u957f 10 \u5e74\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u538b\u529b\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u00a0<strong>\u4e94\u6708\u4efd<\/strong>\u4ee5\u524d\u4ece\u672a\u5728 Everstate \u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u7684\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\uff0c\u5728\u897f\u90e8\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u8086\u8650\u4e86\u51e0\u5929\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u57ce\u5e02\u906d\u53d7\u91cd\u521b\u3002(1)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u4e4b\u540e\u662f\u00a0<strong>6 \u4e2a\u6708<\/strong>\u00a0\u957f\u671f\u70ed\u6d6a\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\u3002(2)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u671f\u95f4\u00a0<strong>\u590f\u5b63<\/strong>\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5cf0\u503c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e\u6bcf\u6876 200$ \u7684\u6cb9\u4ef7\uff08\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u6bcf\u79cd\u80fd\u6e90\uff09\u3002(3)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Novcybio \u662f\u4e00\u5bb6\u5f00\u53d1\u65b0\u578b\u751f\u7269\u6280\u672f\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u516c\u53f8\u3002Everstatan \u7684\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8 Novcybio Everstate \u4e0e Novcybio \u6709\u5404\u79cd\u5546\u4e1a\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5728 <strong>\u516b\u6708<\/strong>\u636e\u5168\u7403\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6050\u6016\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6f5c\u5165\u4e86 Novcybio \u516c\u53f8\u5728\u672c\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\uff0c\u7a83\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u5de5\u7a0b\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\uff0c\u5e76\u7be1\u6539\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b9e\u9a8c\u57fa\u56e0\uff0c\u6539\u53d8\u548c\u91cd\u7ec4\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u8f6c\u57fa\u56e0\u690d\u7269\u7684 DNA \u5e8f\u5217\u3002(4)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728\u00a0<strong>\u5341\u6708\u4efd<\/strong>\uff0c\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u3002(5)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u5728 <strong>\u5341\u4e00\u6708<\/strong> \u4e2d\u4e1c\u6218\u4e89\u7206\u53d1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tiki-toki.com\/timeline\/entry\/34580\/Tragic-Events-hit-Everstate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/timeline2png-1024x516.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1966\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/timeline2png-1024x516.png 1024w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/timeline2png-250x126.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/timeline2png-1038x524.png 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/timeline2png-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/timeline2png-500x252.png 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/timeline2png.png 1383w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u548c\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u6307\u5bfc\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u521d\u59cb\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u5982\u751f\u6001\u73af\u5883\u3001\u65b0\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u4e8b\u4ef6\/\u6761\u4ef6\/\u8fdb\u5316\u3001\u65b0\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u519b\u4e8b\u5a01\u80c1\u7b49\uff09\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u805a\u7c7b\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u53d1\u5c55\u4e3a <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2011\/11\/13\/%e5%88%9b%e5%bb%ba%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b-%e4%bb%8e%e5%9c%b0%e5%9b%be%e5%88%b0%e5%8a%a8%e6%80%81%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c-%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u5177\u4f53\u578b\u53f7\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u9875\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\">\u7279\u5b9a\u578b\u53f7<\/a> \u9488\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7136\u540e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u7efc\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e\u8fd9\u91cc\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u7406\u60f3\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u521b\u5efa\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8bbe\u60f3\u5f71\u54cd\u65f6\u5f80\u5f80\u53ea\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1\u3002\u5c31\u73af\u5883\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u89c6\u89d2\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u548c\u590d\u539f\u529b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f80\u5f80\u4e0d\u591f\u5168\u9762\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u653e\u5f03\u4e86\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u5019\u5ffd\u89c6\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u6001\u3002 <strong>\u8fd9\u79cd\u7247\u9762\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u591f\u7684\u3002<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca <span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">\u6d77\u5730\u548c\u65e5\u672c\u90fd\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u81f4\u547d\u5730\u9707\u7684\u8e42\u8e8f\uff082010 \u5e74\u6d77\u5730\u5730\u9707\uff0c7 \u5146\u74e6\uff1b2011 \u5e74\u4e1c\u5317\u5927\u5730\u9707\uff0c9 \u5146\u74e6\uff09\u3001\u00a0<\/span>\u4e0d\u540c\u653f\u6cbb\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u538b\u529b\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4e5f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u591a\u5b66\u79d1\u65b9\u6cd5\u624d\u80fd\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5e0c\u671b\u5b9e\u73b0\u590d\u539f\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u518d\u6b21\u9762\u4e34\u540c\u6837\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5373\u65f6\u95f4\u987a\u5e8f\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u5b89\u6392\uff08\u89c1\"......\"\uff09\u3002<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/01\/30\/%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b4-%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5-%e8%bf%9c%e8%a7%81-%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9-%e7%ae%a1%e7%90%86\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\"<\/a>; <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u521b\u5efaEvertime (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/07\/%e5%88%9b%e9%80%a0-%e6%b0%b8%e8%bf%9c\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u521b\u9020\u6052\u65f6<\/a>).\u540c\u6837\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u548c\u65f6\u673a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ec4\u5408\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u6bcf\u7ec4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u5e94\u6839\u636e\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u6761\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u5145\u8db3\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u548c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u8bbe\u65bd\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9884\u6d4b\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7528\u6237\u548c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61 Everstate \u5728\u540c\u4e00\u5e74\u6216\u968f\u540e\u51e0\u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\uff08\u76f8\u5bf9\uff09\u8f7b\u677e\u5730\u8c03\u6574\u53d9\u8ff0\u5185\u5bb9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6ce8\u91ca\u548c\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">---<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(1) \u53c2\u89c1\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_European_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6b27\u6d32\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u548c\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u7206\u53d1\u6e05\u5355<\/a> \u7531\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\u63d0\u4f9b\u3002\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.torro.org.uk\/home\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u4e0e\u98ce\u66b4\u7814\u7a76\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(2) \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/europeandroughtcentre.com\/\">\u6b27\u6d32\u5e72\u65f1\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a>;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.drought.gov\/international\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Drought.gov<\/a>Lena M. Tallaksen \u6559\u6388\u5728\u5979\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u6f14\u8bb2 \"\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u4f4e\u6d41\u91cf\uff1a\u89c2\u6d4b\u548c\u591a\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u62df\"\uff08\u6458\u8981\uff09\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u6f14\u8bb2\u4e2d\u3002\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/statistik.boku.ac.at\/cilfad2012\/cilfadabstracts.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6c14\u5019\u5bf9\u4f4e\u6d41\u91cf\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56fd\u9645\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a<\/a>\u7b2c 10 \u9875\uff1a\u5f3a\u8c03<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u5728 20 \u4e16\u7eaa\u540e\u534a\u53f6\u53d1\u751f\u5f97\u66f4\u4e3a\u9891\u7e41\uff0c\u4f46\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u5bf9\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u5e72\u65f1\u80cc\u540e\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5e76\u4e0d\u5168\u9762\u3002\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5317\u65b9\u51ac\u5b63\u53d8\u6696\u4ee5\u53ca\u5730\u4e2d\u6d77\u5730\u533a\u66f4\u52a0\u6e29\u6696\u5e72\u71e5\uff0c\u5e72\u65f1\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u9891\u7e41\u548c\u4e25\u91cd......\"<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(3) \u5e94\u6839\u636e\u5f53\u524d\u548c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5230 2050 \u5e74\u5b9e\u73b0\u51c0\u96f6\u6392\u653e\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4fee\u8ba2\u548c\u8c03\u6574 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u8bbe\u60f3\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u53ef\u80fd\u7206\u53d1\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u5965\u5c14\u7a46\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u5173\u95ed\u6709\u5173\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u60c5\u666f\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pimco.com\/EN\/Insights\/Pages\/Playing-What-If-with-Oil-Prices-and-a-Potential-Strike-on-Iranian-Nuclear-Facilities-.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pimco<\/a>&nbsp;\u4f5c\u4e3a\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/pimcos-4-iran-invasion-oil-price-scenarios-140-doomsday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pimco \u7684 4 \u79cd \"\u4f0a\u6717\u5165\u4fb5 \"\u6cb9\u4ef7\u60c5\u666f\uff1a\u4ece $140 \u5230 \"\u672b\u65e5<\/a>\"\u7531 Zerohedge \u4e8e 2011 \u5e74 11 \u6708 29 \u65e5\u62a5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"i) \u60c5\u666f 1\uff1a\u51fa\u53e3\u53d7\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5c0f\u3002\u62c5\u5fe7\u5c06\u63a8\u52a8\u6700\u521d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u5e94\uff1b\u6cb9\u4ef7\u6700\u521d\u53ef\u80fd\u98d9\u5347\u81f3 $130 \u81f3 $140 \u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5728\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u533a\u95f4\u5185\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u5927\u7ea6\u5728 $120 \u81f3 $125 \u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\u4e4b\u95f4\uff1bii) \u60c5\u666f 2\uff1a\u4f0a\u6717\u51fa\u53e3\u88ab\u5207\u65ad\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u6cb9\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230 $145 \u7f8e\u5143\/\u6876\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u70b9\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u822a\u8fd0\u95ee\u9898\uff1biii) \u60c5\u666f 3\uff1a\u4f0a\u6717\u51fa\u53e3\u4e2d\u65ad\u534a\u5e74\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6cb9\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u5e73\u5747\u8fbe\u5230 $150\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u8be5\u6c34\u5e73\u4e4b\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u660e\u663e\u7684\u98d9\u5347\uff1biv) \u60c5\u666f 4\uff1a\u7531\u4e8e\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u540e\u7eed\u53cd\u5e94\u6216\u7531\u4e8e\u7f3a\u4e4f\u901a\u8fc7\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u8fd0\u8f93\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u635f\u5931\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u4e25\u91cd\u5236\u7ea6\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f......\"<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6cd5\u56fd\u5174\u4e1a\u94f6\u884c\uff1a\"SocGen Lays It Out\uff1a''\"\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/socgen-lays-it-out-eu-iran-embargo-brent-125-150-straits-hormuz-shut-150-200\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6b27\u76df\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u7981\u8fd0\uff1a\u5e03\u4f26\u7279 $125-150.\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u5173\u95ed\uff1a$150-200<\/a>'\"\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e Zerohedge\uff0c2012 \u5e74 1 \u6708 8 \u65e5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1) \"\u60c5\u666f 1\uff1a\u6b27\u76df\u9881\u5e03\u5168\u9762\u7981\u4ee4\uff0c\u7981\u6b62\u6bcf\u5929\u8fdb\u53e3 60 \u4e07\u6876\u4f0a\u6717\u539f\u6cb9\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u98d9\u5347\u81f3 $125-150 \u7684\u533a\u95f4\"\u30022\uff09\"\u60c5\u666f 2\uff1a\u4f0a\u6717\u5173\u95ed\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\uff0c\u4e2d\u65ad 15 \u5146\u6876\/\u5929\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u5e03\u4f26\u7279\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u5728\u6709\u9650\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u98d9\u5347\u81f3 $150-200 \u7684\u533a\u95f4....\"\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(4) \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u89c1\u56fd\u5bb6\u7814\u7a76\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u3002 <em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.nap.edu\/catalog.php?record_id=10827\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u751f\u7269\u6280\u672f\u7814\u7a76<\/a><\/em>.\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7279\u533a\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c2004 \u5e74\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7b2c 22-24 \u9875\uff1bGigi Kwik\u3001Joe Fitzgerald\u3001Thomas V. Inglesby \u548c Tara O'toole\uff0c\"......\"\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/15040212\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u751f\u7269\u5b89\u5168\uff1a\u5728\u707e\u96be\u6027\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d1f\u8d23\u4efb\u5730\u7ba1\u7406\u751f\u7269\u79d1\u5b66<\/a>\", <em>\u751f\u7269\u5b89\u5168\u4e0e\u751f\u7269\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\uff1a\u751f\u7269\u9632\u5fa1\u6218\u7565\u3001\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66<\/em>Danny J. Llewellyn, M. Brown, Y. Cousins, L. Hartweck, D. Last, A. Mathews, F. Murray &amp; J. Thistleton.\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u8054\u90a6\u79d1\u5b66\u4e0e\u5de5\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08CSIRO\uff09\u690d\u7269\u4ea7\u4e1a\u90e8\uff0c\u582a\u57f9\u62c9\u5e02\u90ae\u653f\u4fe1\u7bb1\uff1a1600 A.C.T 2601\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cottoncrc.org.au\/communities\/Cotton_Info\/The_Science_behind_Transgenic_cotton\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8f6c\u57fa\u56e0\u68c9\u82b1\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u539f\u7406<\/a>,\u201d <em>\u7b2c\u516d\u5c4a\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u68c9\u82b1\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bba\u6587\u96c6<\/em> Broadbeach Qld\uff0c1992 \u5e74 8 \u6708\uff1bGlenda D. Webber\uff0c\u7231\u8377\u534e\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\u751f\u7269\u6280\u672f\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/mospace.umsystem.edu\/xmlui\/bitstream\/handle\/10355\/7598\/InsectResistantCropsGeneticEngineering.pdf?sequence=1&amp;isAllowed=y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u901a\u8fc7\u57fa\u56e0\u5de5\u7a0b\u57f9\u80b2\u6297\u866b\u4f5c\u7269<\/a>\".\u751f\u7269\u6280\u672f\u4fe1\u606f\u4e1b\u4e66\uff0c1995 \u5e74\uff1bK.S. Jayaraman\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/news\/india-investigates-bt-cotton-claims-1.10015\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5370\u5ea6\u8c03\u67e5 Bt \u68c9\u82b1\u7d22\u8d54\u6848 \u7814\u7a76\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5b5f\u5c71\u90fd\u57fa\u56e0\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u5370\u5ea6\u672c\u571f\u8f6c\u57fa\u56e0\u68c9\u82b1\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u5c55\u5f00\u8c03\u67e5<\/a>.\u201d <em>\u81ea\u7136\u754c<\/em>\uff0c2012 \u5e74 3 \u6708\uff0cdoi:10.1038\/nature.2012.10015\uff1bB. M. Khadi\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cabidigitallibrary.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.5555\/20073029170#:~:text=The%20Bt%2Dcotton%20area%20increased,to%20the%20menacing%20cotton%20bollworm.\">Bt \u68c9\u82b1\u5bf9\u5370\u5ea6\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a>\"\uff0c\u300a\u8f6c\u57fa\u56e0\u751f\u7269\u5b89\u5168\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(5) \u8fd9\u573a\u65b0\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u5c06\u6e90\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373\u9664\u4e86\u51cf\u5c11\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f00\u652f\u5916\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u6216\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u52aa\u529b\u5e94\u5bf9 2007 \u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5371\u673a\u5728\u6682\u65f6\u7684\u5e73\u9759\u4e4b\u540e\u53c8\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u548c\u98d9\u5347\u5bf9\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c06\u4f7f\u5371\u673a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6076\u5316\uff1a\u8bf7\u9605\u8bfb\u674e\u660e\u542f\u535a\u58eb\uff08\u72b9\u4ed6\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u526f\u6559\u6388\uff09\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bba\u6587\uff1a\"\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u548c\u98d9\u5347\u5bf9\u5b9e\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\"\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theoildrum.com\/node\/9008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d7\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5417\uff1f<\/a>\u201d <em>\u6cb9\u6876<\/em>\uff0c2012 \u5e74 3 \u6708 14 \u65e5\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u60b2\u5267\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u88ad\u51fb\u4e86Everstate\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u7779\u4e86\u9f99\u5377\u98ce\u548c\u5e72\u65f1,\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u6218\u4e89,\u751a\u81f3\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5de5\u4e1a\u4e8b\u6545,\u800c\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5168\u7403\u3001\u533a\u57df\u548cEverstate\u5185\u90e8\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6216\u672a\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u4e3b\u6301Everstate\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5b9e\u4f8b\u3002 <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u90fd\u5e94\u4f7f\u7528\u540c\u4e00\u7ec4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8fdb\u884c\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u5c06\u662f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u7684\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u5b83\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c....<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13,1722,3237],"tags":[615,1383,604,414,619,605,339,146,1245,219,156,205,618,606,625,623,612,354,609,608,611,345,383,610,613,602,190,626,622,123,627,620,614,139,624,617,601,522],"class_list":["post-1351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-communication","category-everstates-futures","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-scenario-building","tag-biotechnology","tag-capabilities","tag-change","tag-cyber-security","tag-drought","tag-duress","tag-ecological-setting","tag-environment","tag-extreme-weather-events","tag-financial-crisis","tag-future","tag-governance","tag-heat-wave","tag-impact","tag-likelihood","tag-medium-term","tag-middle-east","tag-modern-nation-state","tag-natural-catastrophe","tag-natural-event","tag-novcybio","tag-oil","tag-oil-price","tag-organised-crime","tag-pathogen","tag-pressure","tag-scenarios","tag-set-of-events","tag-short-term","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-stress-test","tag-summer","tag-terrorist-group","tag-the-chronicles-of-everstate","tag-timing","tag-tornadoe","tag-tragic-event","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2218 EVT - Tragic events &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/04\/08\/\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u538b\u529b\u548c\u4e8b\u4ef6\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2218 EVT - Tragic events &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Tragic events strike Everstate. We witness tornadoes and drought, war in the Middle East and even a major industrial accident, while a new episode of financial crisis starts. These are instances of the various conditions presiding to Everstate&#039;s destiny, considering what has been done, or not, globally, regionally and within Everstate.   The same set of events should be used to stress test each scenario. The logic of the scenario will however comes first, assuming it impacts the plausibility of the event. 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