{"id":14869,"date":"2017-04-18T10:24:59","date_gmt":"2017-04-18T08:24:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=14869"},"modified":"2024-05-23T16:01:40","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T14:01:40","slug":"%e8%af%84%e4%bb%b7%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af-2-%e5%88%86%e5%8c%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%80%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/04\/18\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-partition\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8bc4\u4f30\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027--\u65b9\u68482\u7684\u5206\u6cbb\u60c5\u51b5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Image: United Nations Photo, [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0], via Flickr We shall now discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various partition scenarios, after having detailed the indicators and determined the likelihood for intervention in the last article. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and GNA for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (unity government). Organizing the Scenarios and Indicators Considering that external actors are already intervening in Libya, as we saw previously, as well as the fact that surrounding countries are experiencing migrant, smuggling, and jihadist spillover from Libya\u2019s civil war, we organized the parent scenarios to account for these certainties. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/04\/18\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-partition\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cEvaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Partition\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=14869\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Image: United Nations Photo, [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0], via Flickr We shall now discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various partition scenarios, after having detailed the indicators and determined the likelihood for intervention in the last article. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and GNA for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (unity government). Organizing the Scenarios and Indicators Considering that external actors are already intervening in Libya, as we saw previously, as well as the fact that surrounding countries are experiencing migrant, smuggling, and jihadist spillover from Libya\u2019s civil war, we organized the parent scenarios to account for these certainties. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/04\/18\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-partition\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cEvaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Partition\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=14869\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":14885,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,2499,3247],"tags":[1789,2473,1100,2317,2474,1862,1210,190,123,1033,522,2331],"class_list":["post-14869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-featured","tag-geopolitical","tag-indicators","tag-libya","tag-libyan-partition","tag-partition","tag-risk","tag-scenarios","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-uncertainty","tag-war","tag-warning","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Partition &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/04\/18\/\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a-\u60c5\u666f-2-\u5206\u533a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Partition &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Image: United Nations Photo, [CC BY-NC-ND 2.0], via Flickr We shall now discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various partition scenarios, after having detailed the indicators and determined the likelihood for intervention in the last article. 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