{"id":15027,"date":"2017-05-09T13:02:59","date_gmt":"2017-05-09T11:02:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=15027"},"modified":"2024-05-23T15:26:07","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T13:26:07","slug":"%e8%af%84%e4%bb%b7%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af2%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%80%a7-%e5%a2%9e%e5%8a%a0%e6%ba%a2%e5%87%ba%e5%92%8c%e5%88%86%e5%8c%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8bc4\u4f30\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027--\u60c5\u666f2 \u6ea2\u51fa\u548c\u5206\u5316\u52a0\u5267"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Featured image: Operation Triton by\u00a0Tomh903\u00a0[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring\u2014thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. When discussing the potential directions of spillover, north refers to Europe; east refers to Egypt; south refers to Niger and Chad; and west refers to Algeria and Tunisia. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cEvaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15027\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Featured image: Operation Triton by\u00a0Tomh903\u00a0[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring\u2014thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. In this article, we shall discuss the organization, indicators, and likelihood of the various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. When discussing the potential directions of spillover, north refers to Europe; east refers to Egypt; south refers to Niger and Chad; and west refers to Algeria and Tunisia. Note: In the following article, we shall use the acronym COR for the Council of Representatives (nationalists), GNC for the General National Congress (Islamists), and &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/09\/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-2-increased-spillover-and-partition\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cEvaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=15027\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":15030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2502,312,2499,3247,2500],"tags":[2010,2483,289,1789,156,2434,695,2317,625,2078,1484,2334,190,2318,123,1391,522,2331],"class_list":["post-15027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","category-sub-saharan-africa","tag-algeria","tag-chad","tag-egypt","tag-featured","tag-future","tag-geopolitical-uncertainty","tag-indicator","tag-libya","tag-likelihood","tag-migrants","tag-niger","tag-risk-management","tag-scenarios","tag-spillover","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-tunisia","tag-war","tag-warning","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/09\/\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a-\u60c5\u666f2\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027-\u589e\u52a0\u6ea2\u51fa\u548c\u5206\u533a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evaluating Likelihoods for Libya \u2013 Scenario 2 Increased Spillover and Partition &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Featured image: Operation Triton by\u00a0Tomh903\u00a0[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia As we discussed in the previous article, intervention and spillover are already occurring\u2014thus we determined the likelihood of three partition scenarios occurring in the midst of intervention and spillover was highly unlikely. 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