{"id":1534,"date":"2012-03-25T09:00:24","date_gmt":"2012-03-25T07:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=1534"},"modified":"2024-11-13T18:04:19","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T17:04:19","slug":"2013-2018-evt-mamominarch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/25\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\/","title":{"rendered":"2213 - 2218 EVT - \u7f29\u51cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6536\u5165 (Mamominarch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a title=\"2013 - 2018 EVT - \u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u76c8\u4f59\uff1f\u518d\u60f3\u60f3\u5427(\u5988\u5988\u541b\u4e3b)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/18\/2013-2014-evt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e0a\u96c6\u6458\u8981<\/a><\/span>:\u5728 2212 EVT\u3001&nbsp;<a title=\"\u521b\u5efaEverstate\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2011\/11\/13\/%e5%88%9b%e4%bd%9c-%e5%b8%b8%e6%80%81\/\">Everstate<\/a>&nbsp;(\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u65e8\u5728&nbsp;<a title=\"\u9884\u89c1\u6cd5\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2011\/09\/28\/%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81-%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95\/\">\u9884\u77e5<\/a>&nbsp;\u7684&nbsp;<a title=\"Everstate\u7684\u7f16\u5e74\u53f2\uff1a\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2011\/10\/30\/launching-the-chronicles-of-everstate\/\">\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a>Everstate \u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u673a\u6784\u5c06\u9a6c\u83ab\u660e\u7eb3\u514b\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u56f0\u96be\u548c\u666e\u904d\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cEverstate \u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u673a\u6784\u5c06\u9a6c\u83ab\u660e\u7eb3\u514b\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\uff1a\u5728\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u5b9e\u65bd\u5927\u5e45\u524a\u51cf\u516c\u5171\u5f00\u652f\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e0c\u671b\u8fc5\u901f\u5b9e\u73b0\u8d38\u6613\u5e73\u8861\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u6539\u5584\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u670d\u52a1\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5374\u6076\u5316\u4e86\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6559\u80b2\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u8870\u8d25\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u9752\u5e74\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u7531\u4e8e Everstatan \u5de5\u4e1a\u96be\u4ee5\u72ec\u81ea\u9762\u5bf9\u65b0\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u8d27\u7269\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u597d\u8f6c\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d38\u6613\u5dee\u989d (2)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728 Everstate \u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u4ee4\u4eba\u62c5\u5fe7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u80fd\u6e90\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5305\u62ec\u8d38\u6613\u5728\u5185\u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u73b0\u4ee3\u6d3b\u52a8\u90fd\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u673a\u6784\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u90a3\u6837<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u8fd0\u8f93\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u4e0a\u6e38\u6210\u672c\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\u518d\u6b21\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u5ec9\u4ef7\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u548c\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u77f3\u6cb9\u91cd\u8fd4\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u9884\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7f13\u89e3\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u9700\u53cc\u65b9\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u4ecd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u9020\u6210\u538b\u529b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u5b9a\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u7f72\u539f\u6cb9\u8fdb\u53e3\u5e73\u5747\u4ef7\u683c\u4fdd\u6301\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u5728\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c2035 \u5e74\u63a5\u8fd1 $120\/\u6876\uff08\u6309 2010 \u5e74\u7f8e\u5143\u8ba1\u7b97\uff09\uff08\u6309\u540d\u4e49\u4ef7\u503c\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d85\u8fc7 $210\/\u6876\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\"\u3002&nbsp;<em>2011 \u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u80fd\u6e90\u5c55\u671b<\/em>,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.iea.org\/weo\/docs\/weo2011\/executive_summary.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6267\u884c\u6458\u8981<\/a>\uff0c2011 \u5e74 11 \u6708\uff0c\u7b2c 3 \u9875\"\u3002<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8d38\u6613\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u77f3\u6cb9\uff09\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u6602\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\u597d\u5e94\u5bf9\u51c6\u5907\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Peak_oil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c<\/a>&nbsp;(\u6700\u5927\u751f\u4ea7\u70b9\uff09\u548c&nbsp;<a title=\"\u91cd\u65b0\u5ba1\u89c6\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u53ca\u65f6\u6027\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2011\/09\/14\/%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%ae%a1%e8%a7%86%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e8%bf%9c%e8%a7%81%e5%92%8c%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%8a%e6%97%b6%e6%80%a7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u672a\u96e8\u7ef8\u7f2a<\/a>&nbsp;\u6b64\u5916\uff0cEverstate \u4e2d\u592e\u7ba1\u7406\u673a\u6784\u7684\u840e\u7f29\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e0\u6cd5\u5236\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bda\u7136\uff0c\u5730\u533a\u8054\u76df\u662f\u6709\u5206\u91cf\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5e94\u8be5\u8d77\u5230\u8865\u507f\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8fd8\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\u53d6\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u8bbe\u8ba1\u51fa\u9ad8\u6548\u3001\u6709\u6d3b\u529b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5730\u533a\u8054\u76df\u4e5f\u662f\u6309\u7167\u65e7\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6a21\u5f0f\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u6b62\u4e00\u6b21\u5730\u672a\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u95ee\u9898\u4e0e\u4e8c\u9636\u548c\u4e09\u9636\u5f71\u54cd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5176\u6b21&nbsp;<a title=\"Everstate\uff1a\u8bbe\u7f6e\u821e\u53f0\uff08I\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/01\/02\/%e8%ae%be%e7%bd%ae%e8%88%9e%e5%8f%b0-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5730\u533a\u8054\u76df\u6a21\u5f0f<\/a>&nbsp;\u5b83\u4ecd\u7136\u4f9d\u8d56\u5e76\u6d89\u53ca\u6bcf\u4e2a\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u6743\u529b\u3002Everstate \u56fd\u5bb6\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u6784\u7684\u884c\u653f\u4eba\u5458\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u65e2\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u4f9d\u8d56\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e Everstate \u5728\u8054\u76df\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u3002\u6709\u9274\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0cNovstate \u516c\u53f8\u5229\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9ad8\u5c42\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u5927\u529b\u6e38\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ee5\u7ef4\u62a4\u81ea\u5df1\u548c\u670b\u53cb\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4f17\u591a\u91c7\u7528\u540c\u6837\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u5bb6\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u57c3\u5f17\u65af\u5854\u5766\u7f29\u6c34\u7684\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u95e8\u5c31\u4f1a\u50cf\u7089\u7076\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u963b\u788d\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u5b9e\u65bd\u3002\u6162\u6162\u5730\uff0c\u5730\u533a\u8054\u76df\u7684\u884c\u653f\u4eba\u5458\u5f00\u59cb\u76f4\u63a5\u4e0e\u5f53\u5730\u7684 Everstatan \u884c\u653f\u90e8\u95e8\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5e38\u5dde\u4eba\u3001\u516c\u53f8\uff08Novstate \u53ca\u5176\u670b\u53cb\u9664\u5916\uff09\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u5374\u6ca1\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u53d1\u8868\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u66f4\u6ca1\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c31\u8d38\u6613\u5e73\u8861\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u8fdb\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u548c\u7ade\u4e89\u52a0\u5267\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fdb\u53e3\u6210\u672c\u4e5f\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002<span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">\u51fa\u53e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u51c0\u8f6c\u79fb\u548c\u8981\u7d20\u6536\u5165<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af396cd46f50&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af396cd46f50\" class=\"alignright size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"499\" height=\"332\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/current-account-s3-e1330443136110.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1451\" style=\"width:400px\" title=\"\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237S3\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/current-account-s3-e1330443136110.png 499w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/current-account-s3-e1330443136110-250x166.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/current-account-s3-e1330443136110-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 499px) 100vw, 499px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6761\u6b3e\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u53d8\u5316\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u6b3e\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5b9e\u73b0\u6700\u521d\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5373\u507f\u8fd8\u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u63f4\u52a9\u548c\u5408\u4f5c\u88ab\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u79c1\u8425\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u8f6c\u79fb\u652f\u4ed8\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26 \u6237\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5bf9\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u4e89\u593a\u4ee5\u53ca\u6240\u6709\u538b\u529b\u548c\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u65b9\u9762\u4ed8\u51fa\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5f88\u96be\u8861\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af396cd47640&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af396cd47640\" class=\"alignright size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"806\" height=\"576\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-income-s3-depth-2-e1330536077835.png\" alt=\"\u56e0\u7d20\u6536\u5165\" class=\"wp-image-1466\" style=\"width:400px\" title=\"\u7cfb\u6570\u6536\u5165 S3 \u6df1\u5ea6 2\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-income-s3-depth-2-e1330536077835.png 806w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-income-s3-depth-2-e1330536077835-250x179.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-income-s3-depth-2-e1330536077835-300x214.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 806px) 100vw, 806px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8981\u7d20\u51c0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u53c8\u5982\u4f55\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2212-2213 \u5e74\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u7684\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u5165\uff08\u5916\u6765\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u51e0\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u5411\u56fd\u5916\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u7ea2\u5229\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u9ad8\u85aa\u5916\u56fd\u7ba1\u7406\u4eba\u5458\u7684\u5230\u6765\uff0c\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u5411\u56fd\u5916\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u7ea2\u5229\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Remittance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6c47\u6b3e<\/a> \u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u76f8\u6bd4\u76f8\u5bf9\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\u3002\u52a0\u4e0a\u4ecd\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u652f\u4ed8\u7684\u516c\u503a\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u652f\u4ed8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\u8fd8\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af396cd47cab&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af396cd47cab\" class=\"alignright size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"852\" height=\"468\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-earnings-s3-e1330536430552.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1468\" style=\"width:400px\" title=\"\u7cfb\u6570\u6536\u76ca s3\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-earnings-s3-e1330536430552.png 852w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-earnings-s3-e1330536430552-250x137.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/factor-earnings-s3-e1330536430552-300x164.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af396cd48359&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af396cd48359\" class=\"alignright size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"714\" height=\"391\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/emigrant1-e1330537073286.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1471\" style=\"width:400px\" title=\"\u4fa8\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/emigrant1-e1330537073286.png 714w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/emigrant1-e1330537073286-250x137.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/emigrant1-e1330537073286-300x164.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 714px) 100vw, 714px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6536\u5165\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u589e\u52a0\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u4ece\u56fd\u5916\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u7ea2\u5229\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6765\u81ea Novstate \u7684\u6295\u8d44\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0cNovstate \u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u65b0 \"\u670b\u53cb\u7f51\u7edc \"\u6982\u5ff5\u4e5f\u5c06\u76f4\u63a5\u6295\u8d44\u964d\u81f3\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0cNovstate \u516c\u53f8\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u4f20\u7edf\u603b\u91cf\u6240\u6355\u6349\u5230\u7684\u6d41\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u79fb\u6c11\u4eba\u6570\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u8457\u589e\u52a0 <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><a title=\"2013 - 2018 EVT - \u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u76c8\u4f59\uff1f\u518d\u60f3\u60f3\u5427(\u5988\u5988\u541b\u4e3b)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/18\/2013-2014-evt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e4b\u524d<\/a>. <span style=\"color: #000000;\">A<\/span><\/span><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u6536\u5165\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0d\u9ad8\uff0c\u6c47\u5165\u7684\u6c47\u6b3e\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u51fa\u73b0\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u9010\u5e74\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u65e0\u6cd5\u507f\u8fd8\u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1\u3002&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6af396cd489a9&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6af396cd489a9\" class=\"alignright size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/nationstateincomes3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1047\" style=\"width:400px\" title=\"\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u6536\u51653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/nationstateincomes3.png 1024w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/nationstateincomes3-250x188.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/nationstateincomes3-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/nationstateincomes3-400x300.png 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewbox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u8d26\u6237\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6536\u5165\u7f29\u6c34\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ea\u4f1a\u4f7f\u51fa\u552e\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d44\u6e90\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6536\u5165\u51cf\u5c11\u96ea\u4e0a\u52a0\u971c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u653f\u4f53\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\uff0c\u5728\u538b\u529b\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u5e45\u524a\u51cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f00\u652f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u56fd\u5bb6\u6536\u5165\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u679c\u662f\u610f\u60f3\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a title=\"2013 - 2018 EVT - \u9769\u547d\uff08\u9a6c\u83ab\u7c73\u7eb3\u5947\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/04\/01\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch-involution\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5f85\u7eed<\/a>....<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">---<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">* \u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\u9ad8\u6602\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u73b0\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u6709\u636e\u53ef\u67e5\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u662f <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Daniel_Yergin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14-\u8036\u5c14\u91d1<\/a>\u4e3b\u5e2d&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ihs.com\/products\/cera\/index.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IHS-CERA<\/a>&nbsp;(\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u89c1\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14-\u8036\u91d1\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB10001424053111904060604576572552998674340.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5c06\u6709\u77f3\u6cb9<\/a>,\u201d <em>\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5<\/em>\uff0c2011 \u5e74 9 \u6708 17 \u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\uff08\u89c1\u4e0b\u6587\uff09\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec Campbell\u3001Colin J. \u548c Jean H. Laherrere\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/dieoff.org\/page140.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5ec9\u4ef7\u77f3\u6cb9\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3<\/a>,\"<em>\u79d1\u5b66\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba<\/em>\uff0c1998 \u5e74 3 \u6708\uff1bDixon, Thomas Homer\u3001&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=o9SHZ_lQ33QC&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;dq=The+Upside+of+Down:+Catastrophe,+Creativity+and+the+Renewal+of+civilization&amp;hl=en&amp;src=bmrr&amp;ei=s15wToqbEoak4AT30uy4CQ&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=1&amp;ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6c89\u6ca6\u7684\u98a0\u8986\uff1a\u707e\u96be\u3001\u521b\u9020\u529b\u548c\u6587\u660e\u7684\u590d\u5174<\/a><\/em>\uff0c\uff08Knopf\uff0c2006 \u5e74\uff09\uff1bHirsch\uff0cRobert L.\uff0cSAIC\uff0c\u9879\u76ee\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba\uff0cRoger Bezdek\uff0cMISI\uff0cRobert Wendling\uff0cMISI&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.netl.doe.gov\/energy-analyses\/pubs\/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e16\u754c\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u3002\u5f71\u54cd\u3001\u7f13\u89e3\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406<\/a><\/em>\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8\uff0c2005 \u5e74 2 \u6708\uff1b\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u673a\u6784 (IEA)\u3001&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.iea.org\/weo\/2010.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2010\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u80fd\u6e90\u5c55\u671b<\/a><\/em>; Klare, Michael\u3001&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=6uu8hHc8zI0C&amp;dq=Blood+and+Oil:+The+Dangers+and+Consequences+of+America%E2%80%99s+Growing+Dependency+on+Imported+Petroleum&amp;hl=en&amp;src=bmrr&amp;ei=H19wTuXiFqnW4QSKv6XCCQ&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=1&amp;ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8840\u4e0e\u77f3\u6cb9\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u8fdb\u53e3\u77f3\u6cb9\u65e5\u76ca\u4f9d\u8d56\u7684\u5371\u9669\u548c\u540e\u679c<\/a><\/em>\uff0c\uff08\u7ebd\u7ea6\uff1a\u5927\u90fd\u4f1a\u4e66\u5e97\uff0c2004 \u5e74\uff1b\u5e73\u88c5\u672c\uff0c\u732b\u5934\u9e70\u4e66\u5e97\uff0c2005 \u5e74\uff09\uff1bKlare\uff0cMichael\u3001&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=yaWjp6kIerIC&amp;dq=Rising+Powers,+Shrinking+Planet:+The+New+Geopolitics+of+Energy&amp;hl=en&amp;src=bmrr&amp;ei=QF9wToOuIMqA4gSE0JHKCQ&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=1&amp;ved=0CCoQ6AEwAA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u5927\u56fd\uff0c\u840e\u7f29\u7684\u5730\u7403\u3002\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u65b0\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;(Henry Holt &amp; Company, Incorporated, 2008); Rubin, Jeff\u3001&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=gYWXSNLluJwC&amp;dq=Why+Your+World+is+About+to+Get+a+Whole+Lot+Smaller&amp;hl=en&amp;src=bmrr&amp;ei=WH1vTtDfD-L54QTV3si6CQ&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=1&amp;ved=0CCkQ6AEwAA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f60\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5c0f\uff1f\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3<\/a><\/em>\u5170\u767b\u4e66\u5c4b\uff0c2009 \u5e74\uff1bStaniford\uff0cStuart\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.energybulletin.net\/stories\/2010-11-11\/iea-acknowledges-peak-oil\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u7f72\u627f\u8ba4\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c<\/a>\uff0c\"2010\u5e7411\u670810\u65e5\u53d1\u8868\u3002&nbsp;<em>\u80fd\u6e90\u516c\u62a5<\/em>.\u53e6\u8bf7\u53c2\u9605\u5728&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theoildrum.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6cb9\u6876<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e13\u4e1a\u667a\u56ca\u56e2\u548c\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u57c3\u514b\u68ee\u548c\u58f3\u724c\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u5f3a\u8c03\u80fd\u6e90\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u77f3\u6cb9\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u6295\u8d44\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.gov\/analysis\/studies\/usshalegas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9875\u5ca9\u6c14\u3001\u9875\u5ca9\u6cb9<\/a>\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\uff0c\u6ca5\u9752\u7802\u7684\u5f00\u91c7\u5c06\u5e26\u6765\u65b0\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u964d\uff1aAyesha Daya\u3001Brian Swint \u548c Rakteem Katakey\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessweek.com\/news\/2012-03-12\/iran-power-declining-in-oil-market-as-explorers-spend-90-billion-energy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u52d8\u63a2\u8005\u65a5\u8d44 $90 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f0a\u6717\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u4efd\u989d\u4e0b\u964d\uff1a\u80fd\u6e90<\/a>\uff0c\"2012 \u5e74 3 \u6708 13 \u65e5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9875\u5ca9\u6c14\u548c\u538b\u88c2\u6280\u672f\u6240\u6d89\u53ca\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\uff08\u5982\uff1a\"\u538b\u88c2\u6280\u672f\"\uff09\u7684\u73af\u5883\u6210\u672c\u5f88\u9ad8\uff08\u5982\uff1a\"\u538b\u88c2\u6280\u672f\"\uff09\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/geology.com\/energy\/shale-gas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5730\u8d28\u5b66\u7f51<\/a>\u7531\u4e8e\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u5e38\u89c4\u77f3\u6cb9\u50a8\u85cf\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9700\u8981\u5f00\u5c55\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4ee5\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8fdb\u884c\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u5408\u6210\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u53e6\u89c1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982&nbsp;<span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">\u7f57\u5170-\u7ef4\u4e9a\u5229<\/span><span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">,&nbsp;<\/span><a style=\"font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\" title=\"\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u78b3\u6c22\u5316\u5408\u7269\uff1a\u6f14\u53d8\u8fd8\u662f\u9769\u547d\uff1f&lt;br \/&gt;&lt;br \/&gt;&lt;br \/&gt;&lt;br \/&gt;&lt;br \/&gt;&lt;br \/&gt;&lt;br \/&gt;&lt;br \/&gt;&quot; href=&quot;http:\/\/www.ifpenergiesnouvelles.com\/content\/download\/71817\/1530718\/version\/5\/file\/Panorama2012_07-VA_+\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u78b3\u6c22\u5316\u5408\u7269.pdf&quot;&amp;gt;\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u78b3\u6c22\u5316\u5408\u7269\uff1a\u6f14\u53d8\u8fd8\u662f\u9769\u547d\uff1f&lt;\/a&gt;&amp;lt;span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">IFP\uff0c2011 \u5e74 11 \u6708\uff1b<\/span>&nbsp;\u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/energybulletin.net\/stories\/2012-03-02\/shale-gas-march-5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9875\u5ca9\u6c14\"--\u300a\u80fd\u6e90\u901a\u62a5\u300b2012 \u5e74 3 \u6708 5 \u65e5\u62a5\u9053<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0a\u96c6\u63d0\u8981\uff1a \u516c\u5143 2212 \u5e74\uff0cEverstate\uff08\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u7406\u60f3\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u9884\u89c1\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff09\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\u65e5\u76ca\u9ad8\u6da8\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u56f0\u96be\u548c\u666e\u904d\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\uff0cEverstate \u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u673a\u6784\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5c06 Mamominarch \u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u7b56\uff1a\u5927\u5e45\u524a\u51cf\u516c\u5171\u5f00\u652f\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/25\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"2213 - 2218 EVT - \u7f29\u51cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6536\u5165\uff08Mamominarch\uff09\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1374,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[484],"tags":[1880,554,721,565,566,563,328,205,567,2062,354,345,109,568,1828,564,190,630,139,569,546,629],"class_list":["post-1534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mamominarch","tag-current-account","tag-devolution","tag-energy-security","tag-factor-earnings","tag-factor-income","tag-fdi","tag-globalisation","tag-governance","tag-influence","tag-mamominarch","tag-modern-nation-state","tag-oil","tag-peak-oil","tag-peak-oil-impact","tag-regional-integration","tag-remittance","tag-scenarios","tag-shale-oil-and-shale-gas","tag-the-chronicles-of-everstate","tag-trade","tag-trade-deficit","tag-unconventional-oil","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2213 - 2218 EVT - Shrinking the Income of the Nation (Mamominarch) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/25\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2213 - 2218 EVT - Shrinking the Income of the Nation (Mamominarch) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last episodes\u2019 summary: In 2212 EVT,&nbsp;Everstate&nbsp;(the ideal-type&nbsp;corresponding to our very real countries&nbsp;created to&nbsp;foresee&nbsp;the&nbsp;future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face&nbsp;the various difficulties and widespread discontent, in a first scenario,&nbsp;Everstate&#8217;s governing bodies have transformed&nbsp;the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission&nbsp;into policies: a programme of drastic reduction of public &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201c2213 &#8211; 2218 EVT &#8211; Shrinking the Income of the Nation (Mamominarch)\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/25\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-03-25T07:00:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-13T17:04:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/Garden_delights-4_3-e1329922546410.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"601\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/25\\\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/25\\\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"2213 &#8211; 2218 EVT &#8211; Shrinking the Income of the Nation (Mamominarch)\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-03-25T07:00:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-13T17:04:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/25\\\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1353,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/25\\\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/Garden_delights-4_3-e1329922546410.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"current account\",\"devolution\",\"energy security\",\"factor earnings\",\"factor income\",\"FDI\",\"globalisation\",\"governance\",\"influence\",\"Mamominarch\",\"modern nation-state\",\"oil\",\"peak oil\",\"Peak OIl impact\",\"regional integration\",\"remittance\",\"scenarios\",\"shale oil and shale gas\",\"The Chronicles of Everstate\",\"trade\",\"trade deficit\",\"unconventional oil\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Mamominarch\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/25\\\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/25\\\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2012\\\/03\\\/25\\\/2013-2018-evt-mamominarch\\\/\",\"name\":\"2213 - 2218 EVT - Shrinking the Income of the Nation (Mamominarch) &#8226; 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