{"id":15909,"date":"2017-09-25T13:02:24","date_gmt":"2017-09-25T11:02:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=15909"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:27:01","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:27:01","slug":"u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/","title":{"rendered":"\u54ea\u79cd\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\uff1f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u89c2\u70b9"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u8270\u96be\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31\uff1f\u81f3\u5c11\u4ece 20 \u4e16\u7eaa 70 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u4e2d\uff08\u80af\u5c3c\u601d-\u534e\u5c14\u5179\uff1a\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d\u300b\uff08Kenneth Waltz\uff1b <em>\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba<\/em>, 1979: 177-178).\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002  \u4f46\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u6b21\u662f\u771f\u7684\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u4e09\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08NIC\uff09\u516c\u5f00\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8be5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u96b6\u5c5e\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u603b\u76d1\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff08ODNI\uff09\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9996\u5148\u7814\u7a76\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u786e\u5207\u542b\u4e49\u548c\u5b83\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/09\/%e6%b6%88%e6%81%af%e6%9d%a5%e6%ba%90-%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e8%a1%b0%e8%90%bd%e7%9a%84%e5%8a%9b%e9%87%8f-%e8%a7%82%e7%82%b9-%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e5%a7%94%e5%91%98\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761<\/a>\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u548c\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u6839\u6e90\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u5c06\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u76d1\u6d4b\u8870\u843d\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6307\u51fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a5\u53d7\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6267\u884c\u6458\u8981<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"background-color:#e0e0e0\" class=\"has-background wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u9645\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7684\u8870\u843d\u6210\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u8870\u843d\u56fd\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u548c\u7531\u6b64\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u6240\u663e\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6218\u4e89\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6218\u4e89\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u6b64\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08NIC\uff09\u901a\u8fc7\u975e\u673a\u5bc6\uff08\u516c\u5f00\uff09\u7248\u672c\u7684\u300a\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\u300b\uff08Global Trends\uff09\u63a2\u8ba8\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1a\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u300b\uff08GT\uff09\u7684\u975e\u673a\u5bc6\uff08\u516c\u5f00\uff09\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3a\u65b0\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u7f16\u5199\u7684\u56db\u5e74\u4e00\u5ea6\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5c55\u671b\u62a5\u544a\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"background-color:#e0e0e0\" class=\"has-background wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5c55\u671b\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u5b9e\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5355\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u7ec8\u7ed3\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"background-color:#e0e0e0\" class=\"has-background wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u901a\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u5b83\u5728\u5404\u9875\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8d77\u4f0f\u4e0d\u5b9a\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u53d1\u5e03\u65f6\u95f4\u5230 2035 \u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6709\u7684\u5219\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728 2020 \u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff08\u89c1\u4e0b\u56fe\uff09\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"background-color:#e0e0e0\" class=\"has-background wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8bf4\u6e05\u695a\u3001\u8bf4\u660e\u767d\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6027\u8d28\u3001\u7279\u70b9\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u65e2\u4e0d\u5229\u4e8e\u660e\u786e\u884c\u52a8\u65b9\u9488\u548c\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e5f\u65e0\u52a9\u4e8e\u76d1\u6d4b\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5145\u6ee1\u4e86\u5371\u9669\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"background-color:#e0e0e0\" class=\"has-background has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\u6587\u7ae0 2133 \u5b57 - \u7ea66 \u9875\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u5185\u5bb9\u63d0\u8981\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9996\u5148\u6982\u8ff0\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8870\u843d\u5927\u56fd--\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd--\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u548c\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u5e76\u4ecb\u7ecd\u7528\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u6587\u4ef6\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u5b9e\u5f3a\u8c03\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5355\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u88ab\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u65f6\u95f4\u4ecd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u5e76\u63a2\u8ba8\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u51fa\u73b0\u8870\u843d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u51cf\u5f31\u53ca\u5176\u7279\u5f81\u5c06\u5bf9\u56fd\u9645\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u5176\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u5176\u6210\u5458\uff08\u56fd\u5bb6\uff09\u53ca\u5176\u5c45\u6c11\uff08\u4ece\u516c\u6c11\u5230\u516c\u53f8\uff09\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8054\u76df\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u8ffd\u968f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5f7b\u5e95\u4fee\u6539\u5176\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u52a8\u6001\u548c\u6d41\u52a8\u5c06\u91cd\u65b0\u8bbe\u8ba1\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9738\u4e3b\u5730\u4f4d\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\u51cf\u5f31\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u6700\u8fd1\u504f\u7231\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u8feb\u4f7f\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u90e8\u95e8--\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4efb\u4f55 \"\u5b9e\u4f53\"--\u5728\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u9ad8\u5174\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u8d38\u6613\u4e4b\u95f4\u505a\u51fa\u9009\u62e9\uff08\u7ea6\u745f\u592b-\u5fb7\u7d22\u739b\uff0c\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5236\u88c1\"\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.38north.org\/2017\/09\/jdethomas092217\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u65b0\u5236\u88c1\uff1a\u4ece\u5236\u88c1\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6218\u4e89<\/a>\u201c, <em>38North\u3001<\/em> John Hopkins SAIS\uff0c2017 \u5e74 9 \u6708 22 \u65e5\uff09\u5c06\u65e5\u76ca\u5931\u53bb\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u53d8\u5f97\u6beb\u65e0\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4ece\u60c5\u62a5\u5171\u4eab\u5230\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u5404\u90e8\u95e8\u4e4b\u95f4\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u884c\u653f\u673a\u6784\u5185\u90e8\u548c\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u8fdb\u884c\u8c03\u6574\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6c89\u6dc0\u4e0b\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5c06\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u4f46\u6218\u4e89\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u89e6\u53d1\u4e86\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631--\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u56fd\uff08\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\uff09\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u8870\u843d\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u56fd\uff08\u8fd9\u91cc\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u6781\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u968f\u4e4b\u53d1\u751f\uff08\u89c1\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u300b\uff09\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.belfercenter.org\/thucydides-trap\/case-file\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u54c8\u4f5b\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u9879\u76ee<\/a> \u6848\u4f8b\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5\u7b49\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u63d0\u9192\u6211\u4eec\u6ce8\u610f\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u8870\u843d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u81ea\u8eab\u53ef\u80fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u548c\u53cd\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u8870\u843d\u3001\u5ef6\u7f13\u8870\u843d\u3001\u63a8\u8fdf\u8870\u843d\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u9006\u8f6c\u8870\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8870\u843d\u56fd\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u8f6c\u578b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8870\u843d\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6218\u4e89--\u5c31\u50cf\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u90a3\u6837--\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u8f83\u6e29\u548c\u4f46\u7edd\u975e\u65e0\u8db3\u8f7b\u91cd\u7684\u8f6c\u578b\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c1991 \u5e74\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u521b\u4f24\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u6218\u4e89\uff08\u7f8e\u8054\u793e\u8bb0\u8005 Nataliya Vasilyeva \u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\"1991 \u5e74\u82cf\u8054\u89e3\u4f53\"\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/wires\/ap\/article-4057962\/A-post-Soviet-generation-endures-poverty-chaos-opportunity.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u540e\u82cf\u8054\u4e00\u4ee3\u5fcd\u53d7\u8d2b\u7a77\u3001\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u673a\u9047<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u6bcf\u65e5\u90ae\u62a5<\/em>\uff0c2016 \u5e74 12 \u6708 22 \u65e5\uff1b\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ea6\u745f\u592b-\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2003\/apr\/09\/russia.artsandhumanities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6bc1\u706d<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u536b\u62a5<\/em>\uff0c2003 \u5e74 4 \u6708 9 \u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u5bf9\u8870\u843d\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u548c\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u627e\u51fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4fe1\u53f7\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u53f7\u548c\u8ff9\u8c61\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5982\u4f55\u770b\u5f85\u81ea\u8eab\u8870\u843d\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u9884\u6d4b\u81ea\u8eab\u8870\u843d\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u91c7\u53d6\u6f5c\u5728\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u548c\u66ff\u4ee3\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u4fdd\u5bc6\uff08\u516c\u5f00\uff09\u7248\u672c\u7684\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5f62\u52bf\u4e0e\u5c55\u671b\u300b\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dni.gov\/index.php\/global-trends-home\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><em>\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1a\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u300b\uff08GT\uff09<\/em><\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u603b\u76d1\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u4e0b\u5c5e\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3a\u65b0\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u7f16\u5199\u7684\u56db\u5e74\u4e00\u5ea6\u7684\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u4e8e 2017 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u51fa\u7248\uff08\u516c\u5f00\u7248\u672c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65f6\u4efb\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4e3b\u5e2d\u683c\u96f7\u683c-\u7279\u96f7\u5f17\u987f\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4fe1\u4e2d\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a \"\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u534f\u8c03\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u653f\u7b56\"\uff08\u7b2cvii\u9875\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u7684\u8fd0\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548cODNI\u7684\u534f\u8c03\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548cODNI\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u673a\u6784\u4fdd\u6301\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0cGT\u62a5\u544a\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee3\u7406\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u89e3\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u548c\u66f4\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u5c31\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d\u613f\u666f\u800c\u8a00\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd8\u5e94\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7248\u672c\u7684 <em>\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\u3001 <\/em>\u7b2c\u516d\u4e2a<em>,<\/em> \u9996\u6b21\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dni.gov\/index.php\/who-we-are\/organizations\/nic\/nic-related-menus\/nic-related-content\/global-trends\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8be5\u7cfb\u5217<\/a>&nbsp;\u4ece 1997 \u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4f20\u7edf\u7684 20 \u5e74\u5c55\u671b\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5e74\uff08\u5373\u5230 2021 \u5e74\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8f83\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5355\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u7ec8\u7ed3......\u4f46\u4f55\u65f6\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u5f15\u4eba\u6ce8\u76ee\u7684\u662f\uff0cGT \u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u5373\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u518d\u5904\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5355\u6781\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u6211\u4eec\u5373\u5c06\u79bb\u5f00\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u505a\u51fa\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u5b83\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5728\u8868\u73b0\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6267\u884c\u6458\u8981\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u6bb5\uff08\u7b2c9\u9875\uff09\u4e2d\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u63cf\u8ff0\u5851\u9020\u672a\u6765\u5168\u7403\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\uff08\u7b2c6\u9875\u548c\u7b2c26\u9875\uff09\u4e2d\u4e24\u6b21\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u5728\u957f\u671f\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e2d\u518d\u6b21\u91cd\u7533\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728 \"\u8f68\u9053\"\uff08\u7b2c54-57\u9875\uff09\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u65ad\u8a00\u8870\u843d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u6743\u529b\u76f8\u5bf9\u5206\u914d\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u8870\u843d\u9636\u6bb5\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6839\u636e\u5176\u63aa\u8f9e\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u9006\u8f6c\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ece\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u6210\u4e3a\u552f\u4e00\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u5230 2016 \u5e74 12 \u6708\uff08\u5411\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u63d0\u4ea4\u62a5\u544a\u65f6\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\uff0c\u6216\u5f88\u5feb\u5c06\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u72ec\u4e00\u65e0\u4e8c\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\uff08\u7b2c ix\u30016\u300126\u300154 \u9875\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u88ab\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5851\u9020\u672a\u6765\u81f32035\u5e74\u7684\u65b0\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684 \"\u5e95\u7ebf \"\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u51f8\u663e\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5728GT\u4e2d\u6240\u505a\u58f0\u660e\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u51b7\u6218\u540e\u7684\u5355\u6781\u65f6\u523b\u5df2\u7ecf\u8fc7\u53bb\uff0c1945 \u5e74\u540e\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u9010\u6e10\u6d88\u5931\"\uff08\u7b2c 6 \u9875\uff09\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u628a\u63e1\u4e0b\u964d\u65f6\u673a<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u6700\u521d\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u5f3a\u70c8\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u5373\u5c06\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\uff08\u7b2c ix\u30016\u300126 \u9875\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u65f6\u673a\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5728\u8f83\u77ed\u7684\u9884\u89c1\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5373\u5173\u4e8e \"\u8fd1\u671f \"\u6216\u672a\u67655\u5e74\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u7ae0\u8282\uff08\u7b2c32-34\u9875\uff09\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u5c06\u4f1a\u4e27\u5931\u6216\u6b63\u5728\u4e27\u5931\u7684\u63d0\u6cd5\u90fd\u6d88\u5931\u4e86\u3002\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u8bf4\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u5e76\u5e0c\u671b\u4ece\u4e09\u4e2a\u957f\u671f\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e\u8870\u843d\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848 \"\u8f68\u9053 \"\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ece\u4e16\u754c\u821e\u53f0\u4e0a\u9000\u7f29--\u4ece\u800c <em>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a<\/em> \u636e\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u5728 \"2020 \u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\"\uff08\u7b2c 54 \u9875\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728 \"\u8fd1\u671f \"\u672b\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u5728 \"\u8fd1\u671f \"\u4e4b\u540e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bc4\u4f30\u65f6\u95f4\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u4e2d\u5f88\u5c11\u505a\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\uff08\u89c1Helene Lavoix\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2015\/06\/22\/enhancing-foresight-with-the-temporal-dimension\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7528\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u589e\u5f3a\u524d\u77bb\u6027<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a<\/em>\uff0c2015 \u5e74 6 \u6708 22 \u65e5\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u6311\u6218\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u5bf9\u8870\u9000\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u5468\u56f4\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u662f\u9700\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u548c\u8bc4\u4f30\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u624d\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u5e76\u76d1\u6d4b\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5168\u7403\u9886\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u4e3a\u8d77\u70b9\u7684\u8870\u843d\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u786e\u5b9a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecd\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u4f46\u8870\u843d\u7684\u65f6\u523b\uff1f\u8fd8\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u5230\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d\uff1f\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e2d\u6700\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\u4f5c\u4e3a\u51fa\u53d1\u70b9\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8870\u843d\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5931\u53bb\u529b\u91cf\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86&nbsp;<span style=\"color: #333333;\">\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a&nbsp;<\/span>GT \u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6240\u63ed\u793a\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u8d77\u70b9\u3001\u542b\u4e49\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u8870\u9000\u8def\u5f84<span style=\"color: #333333;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignfull\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1725\" height=\"1376\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16014\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border.jpg 1725w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border-250x199.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border-1038x828.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border-300x239.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border-768x613.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border-1000x798.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/Global-Trends-Uncertainties-1792-no-border-600x479.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1725px) 100vw, 1725px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u5206\u6790\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u6307\u6807\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u548c\u5bf9\u6307\u6807\u76d1\u6d4b\u6240\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u8870\u9000\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u5c06\u56e0\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u800c\u6709\u6240\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6743\u529b\u4e27\u5931\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u5927\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u4eec\u4e0d\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u89c2\u5bdf\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0cGT\u5728\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d8\u5f97\u6a21\u7cca\u4e0d\u6e05\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u5904\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4ee5\u53ca\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u9053\u8def\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u56fd\u9645\u90fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u6096\u8bba\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u8870\u843d\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6b21\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e0eGT\u4e2d\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684 \"\u5355\u6781\u65f6\u523b\u7684\u7ed3\u675f \"\u7684 \"\u81f4\u547d\u6027 \"\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u8fd9\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u4fc3\u8fdb\u4e86\u65e8\u5728\u589e\u5f3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b9e\u529b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9009\u62e9\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7 \"\u8870\u843d\"\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8bd5\u56fe\u626d\u8f6c\u5b83\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e86\u89e3\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u786e\u5207\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u8bd5\u56fe\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u5c06\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u9009\u62e9\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5bf9\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u5bfc\u81f4\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">---<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247<\/strong> \u7531 Bruce Emmerling \u521b\u4f5c\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\u3001 <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/en\/flag-us-flag-american-flags-flags-217619\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pixabay<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">---<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8be6\u7ec6\u53c2\u8003\u4e66\u76ee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adizes, Ichak Kalderon, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/dr-ichak-kalderon-adizes-\/the-decline-of-the-united_b_7286358.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d<\/a>\"\uff0c\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u3001 <em>\u8d1d\u683c\u9c81\u6069\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em> \u548c <em>\u8d6b\u82ac\u987f\u90ae\u62a5 <\/em>2015 \u5e74 5 \u6708 15 \u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.belfercenter.org\/thucydides-trap\/case-file\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u54c8\u4f5b\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u9879\u76ee\u3002<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u3001&nbsp;<\/span><em style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dni.gov\/index.php\/global-trends-home\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1a\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u300b\uff08GT\uff09<\/a><\/em><span style=\"text-align: justify;\">,&nbsp;<\/span><em style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u603b\u76d1\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u3001<\/em><span style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;(\u516c\u5f00\u7248\u672c\uff0c2017 \u5e74 1 \u6708\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7ea6\u745f\u592b-\u65af\u8482\u683c\u5229\u8328\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2003\/apr\/09\/russia.artsandhumanities\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6bc1\u706d<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>\u536b\u62a5<\/em>\uff0c2003 \u5e74 4 \u6708 9 \u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5a1c\u5854\u8389\u4e9a-\u74e6\u897f\u91cc\u8036\u5a03\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/wires\/ap\/article-4057962\/A-post-Soviet-generation-endures-poverty-chaos-opportunity.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u540e\u82cf\u8054\u4e00\u4ee3\u5fcd\u53d7\u8d2b\u7a77\u3001\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u673a\u9047<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>\u6bcf\u65e5\u90ae\u62a5<\/em>\uff0c2016 \u5e74 12 \u6708 22 \u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u534e\u5c14\u5179\uff0c\u80af\u5c3c\u65af&nbsp;<em>\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba<\/em>Addison-Wesley \u51fa\u7248\u516c\u53f8\uff0c1979 \u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bf7\u9605\u8bfb Korab-Karpowicz, W. Julian \u7684 \"\u534e\u5c14\u5179\u7406\u8bba \"\u6458\u8981\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/plato.stanford.edu\/entries\/realism-intl-relations\/#KennWaltInteSyst\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>\u65af\u5766\u798f\u54f2\u5b66\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66&nbsp;<\/em>(2017 \u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u7248\uff09\uff0cEdward N. Zalta\uff08\u7f16\u8f91\uff09\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>21\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u8270\u96be\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5f31\uff1f\u81f3\u5c11\u4ece20\u4e16\u7eaa70\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u7ecf\u5e38\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u5a92\u4f53\u4e2d\uff08Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6bcf... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u54ea\u79cd\u8870\u843d\uff1f\u6765\u81ea\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15949,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,3243,1078],"tags":[1789,2424,2560,112,220,116,2175,2543,1573],"class_list":["post-15909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-future-wars","category-new-paradigm","tag-featured","tag-international-order","tag-open-access","tag-power","tag-russia","tag-security","tag-u-s","tag-u-s-decline","tag-u-s-ic","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cWhich U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-09-25T11:02:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-08T10:27:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1038\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-09-25T11:02:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-08T10:27:01+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2228,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"international order\",\"Open Access\",\"power\",\"Russia\",\"security\",\"U.S\",\"U.S. decline\",\"U.S. IC\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Americas\",\"Future Wars\",\"International Order and New Paradigm\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/\",\"name\":\"Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-09-25T11:02:24+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-08T10:27:01+00:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/25\\\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/09\\\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg\",\"width\":1038,\"height\":576,\"caption\":\"U.S. decline\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"description\":\"Strategic Foresight &amp; Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\",\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"description\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u54ea\u79cd\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f0f\u8870\u843d\u201d\uff1f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u89c6\u89d2 \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"The second decade of the 21st century appears to be rough for the U.S.. Could it mean that American power is waning? The question of a putative decline of the U.S. regularly emerges in international relations and in the media since at least the 1970s (Kenneth Waltz; Theory of International Politics, 1979: 177-178). However, each &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cWhich U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council\u201d","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2017-09-25T11:02:24+00:00","article_modified_time":"2021-10-08T10:27:01+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1038,"height":576,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u4f5c\u8005":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4":"11 \u5206"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4"},"headline":"Which U.S. Decline? The View from the U.S. National Intelligence Council","datePublished":"2017-09-25T11:02:24+00:00","dateModified":"2021-10-08T10:27:01+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/"},"wordCount":2228,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg","keywords":["featured","international order","Open Access","power","Russia","security","U.S","U.S. decline","U.S. IC"],"articleSection":["Americas","Future Wars","International Order and New Paradigm"],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/","name":"\u54ea\u79cd\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f0f\u8870\u843d\u201d\uff1f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u7684\u89c6\u89d2 \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg","datePublished":"2017-09-25T11:02:24+00:00","dateModified":"2021-10-08T10:27:01+00:00","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/09\/25\/u-s-decline-view-u-s-national-intelligence-council\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg","width":1038,"height":576,"caption":"U.S. decline"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","name":"\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240","description":"\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u4e0e\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66 \uff65 \u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669 \u00b7 \u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization","name":"\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Red Team Analysis Society"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/helenelavoix\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/5403964\/admin\/dashboard\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4","name":"Helene Lavoix \u535a\u58eb\uff08\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u7406\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u3001\u535a\u58eb\uff09","description":"\u662f Red Team Analysis Society \u7684\u603b\u88c1\u517c\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u3002\u5979\u62e5\u6709\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u4e9a\u975e\u5b66\u9662\uff08SOAS\uff09\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u548c\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff08\u4f18\u5f02\u6210\u7ee9\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff08\u6cd5\u56fd\u5927\u5b66\u6821\u6bd5\u4e1a\uff09\u3002\r\n\r\n\u5979\u62e5\u6709 30 \u5e74\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u8fd1 20 \u5e74\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u662f\u6218\u7565\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u62c9\u6c83\u74e6\u535a\u58eb\u66fe\u5728\u4e94\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u53e6\u5916 16 \u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6267\u884c\u8fc7\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u57f9\u8bad\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u548c\u7ea6\u65e6\u3002\r\n\r\n\u5979\u66fe\u5728\u65b0\u52a0\u5761 RSIS\u3001SciencesPo-PSIA \u6216\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u56fd\u5185\u6cbb\u5b89\u90e8\u961f\u9ad8\u7b49\u5b66\u6821\u548c\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u548c\u822a\u5929\u5c40\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u5b66\u9662\u7b49\u8457\u540d\u673a\u6784\u62c5\u4efb\u8bb2\u5e08\uff08\u7855\u58eb\uff09\uff0c\u8bb2\u6388\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u3002\r\n\u5979\u5b9a\u671f\u53d1\u8868\u5173\u4e8e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u548c\u94c0\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\r\n\r\n\u62c9\u6c83\u74e6\u535a\u58eb\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u8fdb\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u5b66\u672f\u4e13\u957f\u4e0e\u5b9e\u5730\u7ecf\u9a8c\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6311\u6218\u3002.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/flag-217619_1920-1038.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15909\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}