{"id":16058,"date":"2017-11-06T10:00:27","date_gmt":"2017-11-06T09:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=16058"},"modified":"2021-10-08T12:26:12","modified_gmt":"2021-10-08T10:26:12","slug":"%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba-u-s-%e4%b8%8b%e9%99%8d-%e7%b4%a7%e5%bc%a0-%e5%8c%97%e6%9c%9d%e9%b2%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/11\/06\/paradox-u-s-decline-tensions-north-korea\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u6096\u8bba......\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u672c\u6587\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u4ea1\u3002\u5b83\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e2017\u5e74\u4e0e\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u8def\u7ebf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6760\u6746\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u662f\u4e09\u7bc7\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08NIC\uff09\u516c\u5f00\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8be5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u603b\u76d1\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff08ODNI\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5728 \u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206<\/a> (open access)\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u4e86\u89e3\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u7684\u786e\u5207\u542b\u4e49\u53ca\u5176\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f \u7b2c\u4e8c\u6761<\/a> \u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fe1\u606f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u548c\u6743\u529b\u7684\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u7ed9\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u76d1\u6d4b\u8870\u843d\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u6267\u884c\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u7531\u4e8eGT\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8870\u843d\u88ab\u65ad\u8a00\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u9690\u542b\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u6062\u590d\u8870\u843d\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u8fd8\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u72ec\u7279\u9053\u5fb7\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c55\u671b\u62a5\u544a\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fc3\u4f7f\u548c\u652f\u6301\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u63a5\u53d7\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u5355\u6781\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u575a\u5b9a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u6062\u590d\u6216\u4fdd\u6301\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9053\u5fb7\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u5546\u4f1a\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u7684 \"\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f18\u5148 \"\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u4ea4\u96c6\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e00\u4e9b\u8bc4\u8bba\u5bb6\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u5c31\u5306\u5306\u4e0b\u4e86\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u4f46\u5b64\u7acb\u4e3b\u4e49\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u5f53\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e2017\u5e74\u7684\u671d\u9c9c\u5371\u673a\u65f6\uff0cGT\u6240\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u5b83\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e3a\u6062\u590d\u6216\u7ef4\u6301\u5176\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u5730\u4f4d\u800c\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6597\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5229\u5bb3\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ecd\u7136\u9501\u5b9a\u5728\u5176\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u4e0a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u5e55\u540e\u4e5f\u4f7f\u7528\u5916\u4ea4\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u627e\u5230\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u9762\u5b50\u4e4b\u8def\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d70\u5411\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u8fd9\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u53c8\u4f1a\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u5e76\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u52a0\u901f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u6096\u8bba\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u5168\u65872547\u5b57-\u7ea67.5\u9875<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

\u975e\u4f1a\u5458\u6216\u60a8\u7684\u5957\u9910\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u3002
\n\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u3002 \u6210\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5458<\/a> \u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a\u7684\u3002
\n\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f1a\u5458\uff0c\u8bf7 \u767b\u5f55<\/a>\u00a0(\u4e0d\u8981\u5fd8\u8bb0\u5237\u65b0\u9875\u9762\uff09\u3002\u00a0<\/em>
\n\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u9605\u8bfb\u514d\u8d39\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8bf7\u5bfb\u627e\u6211\u4eec\u7684 \u5f00\u653e\u5b58\u53d6\u7684\u51fa\u7248\u7269<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n

*\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6c38\u8fdc\u4e0d\u8981\u5fd8\u8bb0\u9053\u5fb7\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279-W-\u9ea6\u514b\u7f57\u4f0a\u3002 \u9053\u5fb7\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u9053\u5fb7\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/em><\/a>\uff0c\u666e\u6797\u65af\u987f\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c1992\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n

---<\/p>\n

\u5173\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005<\/strong>:\u535a\u58eb\u00a0<\/em>Helene Lavoix<\/a>\u4f26\u5fb7\u535a\u58eb\uff08\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a\u7684\u4e3b\u4efb\u3002\u5979\u4e13\u95e8\u4ece\u4e8b\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247<\/strong> by tammyatWTI, Public Domain, Pixabay<\/a><\/p>\n

---<\/p>\n

\u8be6\u7ec6\u53c2\u8003\u4e66\u76ee<\/h3>\n

Adizes, Ichak Kalderon, \"\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8870\u843d<\/a>\"\uff0c\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u3001 \u8d1d\u683c\u9c81\u6069\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em> \u548c \u8d6b\u82ac\u987f\u90ae\u62a5 <\/em>2015\u5e745\u670815\u65e5<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\uff0c\"\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u957f\u738b\u6bc5\u4e0e\u5fb7\u56fd\u526f\u603b\u7406\u517c\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u957f\u52a0\u5e03\u91cc\u5c14\u901a\u8bdd<\/a>\"\uff0c2017\u5e748\u670815\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u57c3\u5179\u5965\u5c3c\uff0c\u963f\u7c73\u6cf0\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u5728\u5931\u53bb\u5176\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u53ef\u4fe1\u5ea6<\/a>\uff1f\"\uff0c2017\u5e7410\u670826\u65e5\u3002 \u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca<\/em><\/p>\n

\u54c8\u4f5b\u4fee\u6614\u5e95\u5fb7\u9677\u9631\u9879\u76ee<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0Mohammed Arshad, and Matt Spetalnick, \"\u72ec\u5bb6\u62a5\u9053\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u987e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u62d2\u7edd\uff0c\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e0e\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u5916\u4ea4\u5408\u4f5c<\/a>\"\uff0c2017\u5e7411\u67081\u65e5\u3002 \u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em><\/p>\n

\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u3001\u00a0<\/span>\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\uff1a\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6096\u8bba\u300b\uff08GT\uff09<\/a><\/em>,\u00a0<\/span>\u56fd\u5bb6\u60c5\u62a5\u603b\u76d1\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u3001<\/em>\u00a0(\u516c\u5f00\u7248\u672c\uff0c2017 \u5e74 1 \u6708\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u5efa\u8bae\u901a\u8fc7\u4f0a\u6717\u5f0f\u6838\u8c08\u5224\u6765\u7ed3\u675f\u671d\u9c9c\u5371\u673a<\/a>\"\uff0c2017\u5e749\u670810\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5a01\u80c1\u8981 \"\u6467\u6bc1 \"\u671d\u9c9c\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14<\/a>\"\uff0c2017\u5e749\u670820\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u534e\u5c14\u5179\uff0c\u80af\u5c3c\u65af\u00a0\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u8bba<\/em>Addison-Wesley \u51fa\u7248\u516c\u53f8\uff0c1979 \u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8bf7\u9605\u8bfb Korab-Karpowicz, W. Julian \u7684 \"\u534e\u5c14\u5179\u7406\u8bba \"\u6458\u8981\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e3b\u4e49<\/a>\u201c,\u00a0\u65af\u5766\u798f\u54f2\u5b66\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\u00a0<\/em>(2017\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u7248\uff09\uff0cEdward N. Zalta\uff08\u7f16\u8f91\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65b0\u534e\u793e\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u5728\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\u6566\u4fc3\u5bf9\u671d\u9c9c\u8c28\u614e\u884c\u4e8b<\/a>, \u73af\u7403\u65f6\u62a5<\/em>\uff0c2917\u5e749\u670822\u65e5\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u672c\u6587\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u77db\u76fe\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba8\u8bba\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u5176\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u4ea1\u3002\u5b83\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e00\u6846\u67b6\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e2017\u5e74\u4e0e\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u7f8e\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u8def\u7ebf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6760\u6746\u4f5c\u7528\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u8870\u843d\u7684\u6096\u8bba......\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u671d\u9c9c\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2497,1148,3243,1078,2498],"tags":[61,1789,291,220,2543],"class_list":["post-16058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-china","category-east-asia-security","category-future-wars","category-new-paradigm","category-russia","tag-china","tag-featured","tag-north-korea","tag-russia","tag-u-s-decline","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Paradox of U.S. Decline ... and the Tensions with North Korea • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article addresses the paradox of US decline, the impossibility for the US to accept its waning, and apply this framework to tensions with North Korea.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/11\/06\/\u6096\u8bba-u-s-\u4e0b\u964d-\u7d27\u5f20-\u5317\u671d\u9c9c\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Paradox of U.S. Decline ... and the Tensions with North Korea • The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This article addresses the paradox of US decline, the impossibility for the US to accept its waning, and apply this framework to tensions with North Korea.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/11\/06\/\u6096\u8bba-u-s-\u4e0b\u964d-\u7d27\u5f20-\u5317\u671d\u9c9c\/\" 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