{"id":16482,"date":"2017-10-16T11:19:13","date_gmt":"2017-10-16T09:19:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=16482"},"modified":"2025-10-14T12:15:06","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T10:15:06","slug":"%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%80%e7%bb%88%e8%ae%be%e6%83%b3%e5%92%8c%e5%ae%83%e4%bb%ac%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e6%80%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/16\/final-scenario-for-the-future-of-libya-and-their-likelihoods\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u65b9\u6848\u53ca\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">\u56fe\u7247\u5f20\u8d34\u7684\u4e03\u6708\u505c\u706b <br>\u7531 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LibyanGovernment\/photos\/a.292728117513968.70670.292681774185269\/1387793548007414\/?type=3&amp;theater\">\u6c11\u65cf\u548c\u7766\u653f\u5e9c\u7684Facebook\u9875\u9762<\/a>, <br>2017 \u5e74 7 \u6708 25 \u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e4b\u540e\uff08\u89c1\u8be6\u60c5 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/portal-strategic-foresight-warning-analysis-libya\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>)\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u63d0\u51fa\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u81ea\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ee5\u6765\u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u6ea2\u51fa\u90fd\u5df2\u6beb\u65e0\u7591\u95ee\u5730\u5728\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u73b0\u5728\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u5b50\u60c5\u666f <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2015\/12\/07\/%e5%88%a9%e6%af%94%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af2-1-%e8%81%94%e5%90%88%e9%98%bf%e6%8b%89%e5%b8%83%e9%83%a8%e9%98%9f-%e4%b8%80%e6%96%b9%e7%9a%84%e6%83%85%e6%99%af\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u60c5\u666f\u4e8c<\/a>:\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u72ec\u7acb\u60c5\u666f\u3002  \u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u6574\u5957\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5e76\u66f4\u65b0\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"text-align: justify; background-color: #f6f5f5; border-top: 3px solid #ce0022; border-bottom: 3px solid #ce0022; padding: 1em;\">\n<p><strong>\u6267\u884c\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u6574\u7406\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u56fe\u8868\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6574\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u73b0\u5728\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e86\u6700\u8fd1\u5728\u5f53\u5730\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u505c\u706b\u548c\u968f\u540eCOR\u4e0eGNA\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3001\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5371\u673a\u548c\u6218\u7565\u8f6c\u53d8\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u610f\u5927\u5229\u548c\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u90e8\u843d\u7684\u53cd\u79fb\u6c11\u52aa\u529b\u90fd\u660e\u663e\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u51e0\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>\u6839\u636e\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u548c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u5185\u6218\u662f\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0898%\uff09\uff1b\u6539\u53d8\u6218\u7565\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7ee7\u7eed\u6218\u4e89\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0866%\uff09\uff1b\u52a0\u5f3a\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u63a5\u8fd145%\uff0c\u4e0d\u52a0\u5f3a\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7565\u9ad8\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc755%\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left; font-family: Futura; font-weight: 100; font-size: 14px; text-transform: uppercase;\"><span style=\"color: #808080;\">\u5168\u6587 2110\u5b57 - \u7ea65\u9875<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"color: #808080;\"><em>\u5907\u6ce8\u3002\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7528COR\u4ee3\u8868\u56fd\u6c11\u8bae\u4f1a\uff08\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff09\uff0cGNC\u4ee3\u8868\u56fd\u6c11\u5927\u4f1a\uff08\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\uff09\uff0cGNA\u4ee3\u8868\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u652f\u6301\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u548c\u7766\u653f\u5e9c\uff08\u56e2\u7ed3\u653f\u5e9c\uff09\u3002<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"color: #999999;\"><em>\u7f16\u8005\u6ce8\uff1a\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc4\u4f30\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u5230\u6218\u4e89\u6216\u5185\u6218\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u662f\u6d77\u5fb7\u5821\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff08HIIK\uff09\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hiik.de\/en\/konfliktbarometer\/pdf\/ConflictBarometer_2016.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5c3a\u5ea6<\/a>&nbsp;(Conflict Barometer 2016, pp.6-8)\u3002  \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8bcd\u8bed\u4e0e\u5b98\u65b9\u58f0\u660e\u548c\u6807\u7b7e\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u540e\u8005\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u51fa\u4e8e\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u6cbb\u539f\u56e0\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u65e8\u5728\u4ee3\u8868\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002&nbsp;<\/em>&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6307\u6807\u53d8\u5316<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5220\u9664\u5e76\u5408\u5e76\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7565\u663e\u591a\u4f59\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u6539\u8fdb\u4e86\u4e0e\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u53c2\u4e0e\u6709\u5173\u7684\u6307\u6807\u7684\u63aa\u8f9e\uff0c\u5e76\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u516c\u4f17\u538b\u529b\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u5df2\u5220\u9664<\/strong> \u5197\u4f59\u6307\u6807 <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u51fa\u5e2d\u548c\u53c2\u52a0\u548c\u5e73\u4f1a\u8c08\uff1f<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5408\u5e76<\/strong> \u5c06\u591a\u4f59\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u8054\u76df\u6307\u6807\u5408\u5e76\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff1a <em>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5e72\u9884\u5e76\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u4f46\u6b66\u88c5\u8054\u76df\u662f\u5426\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u5168\u9762\u80dc\u5229\uff1f<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u91cd\u65b0\u63aa\u8f9e <\/strong>\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u6307\u793a\u5668\uff1a <em>\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u65bd\u52a0\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u538b\u529b\u6216\u5956\u52b1\uff0c\u4ee5\u9f13\u52b1\u4ed6\u4eec\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\uff1f<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u5df2\u6dfb\u52a0<\/strong> \u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u6307\u6807\uff1a <em>\u516c\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u6216\u5185\u90e8\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\u662f\u5426\u8feb\u4f7f\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u8c08\uff1f<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u6839\u636e\u6bcf\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u60c5\u666f\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u63a2\u7a76\u4e86\u521a\u679c\u9769\u547d\u519b\u3001\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u515a\u548c\u5168\u56fd\u6c11\u65cf\u5927\u4f1a\u515a\u53c2\u52a0\u7531\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u8c03\u505c\u7684\u548c\u8c08\u7684\u5404\u81ea\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728 62% \u65f6\uff0c\u56fd\u6c11\u519b\u662f\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u8c08\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f 49% \u65f6\u7684\u4e2d\u592e\u9009\u4e3e\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff0c\u800c\u56fd\u6c11\u8bae\u4f1a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0d\u5230 1%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u8865\u5145\u8bc4\u4f30\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u786e\u5b9a\u8ba9\u4e2a\u522b\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u5750\u5230\u548c\u8c08\u684c\u524d\u7684\u56f0\u96be\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vQJn6nJ7wVjSCqr29QAYV6eS_fd2mLvo6r84pfuRJiLjUrjpJsAi1_Frd3LiTowq7AiX7LYNmKMrkYN\/pubhtml?widget=true&#038;headers=false\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"100%\" height=\"480\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" mozallowfullscreen=\"true\" webkitallowfullscreen=\"true\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u672c\u5e16\u6700\u540e\u7684 \"\u548c\u5e73\u65b9\u6848 \"\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e2d\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u66f4\u65b0\u4e3a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u548c\u8b66\u544a\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>\u7f16\u8005\u6ce8<\/strong>&nbsp;\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u5c06\u5047\u8bbe\u60c5\u666f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u6d3b\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e0e\u6700\u521d\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u53ca\u5176\u6307\u6807\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e00\u4e9b\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6539\u8fdb\u5fc5\u987b\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u5185\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u91cd\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u65b0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u66f4\u65b0\u548c\u5e73\u65b9\u6848\u6307\u6807\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u81ea\u53d1\u5e03\u4ee5\u6765\u5f53\u5730\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u91cd\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b0\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u786e\u5b9a\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u662f\u5185\u6218\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u4f46\u6218\u7565\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u5e72\u9884\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u5206\u6cbb\u548c\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\uff09\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u6700\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u5305\u62ec\u5206\u6cbb\uff1b\u7b7e\u7f72\u548c\u5e73\u6761\u7ea6\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u57fa\u5730\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u6216\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u53d6\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u867d\u7136\u6240\u6709\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u90fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u548c\u5e73\u60c5\u666f\u3001\u5e72\u9884\u589e\u52a0\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0b\u8868\u8ba1\u7b97\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/probability-assess-sc.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"212\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/probability-assess-sc.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/probability-assess-sc.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/probability-assess-sc-250x177.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8fc8\u5411\u548c\u5e73<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u4fee\u6539\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u60c5\u666f\u53ca\u5176\u5b50\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u4e8b\u4ef6\u66f4\u65b0\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u540c\u610f\u53c2\u52a0\u7531\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u8c03\u505c\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 42%\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u91cd\u5927\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u6307\u6807\u30027 \u6708\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u4fc3\u6210\u505c\u706b\uff0c\u5e76\u627f\u8bfa\u4e3a 2018 \u5e74\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5927\u9009\u800c\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u90fd\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u603b\u7406\u6cd5\u8036\u5179-\u8428\u62c9\u6770\uff08Fayez al-Sarraj\uff09\u548c\u54c8\u5229\u6cd5-\u54c8\u592b\u5854\u5c14\u5c06\u519b\uff08Khalifa Haftar\uff09\u7684\u540c\u610f\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/2017\/07\/25\/draft-statement-says-libya-rivals-have-agreed-ceasefire-election\/\">\u6851\u5207\u65af<\/a>, <em>\u7535\u8baf\u62a5<\/em>7\u670825\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.defenceweb.co.za\/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=49165:positive-signs-after-libya-peace-talks&amp;catid=56:diplomacy-a-peace&amp;Itemid=111\"><em>\u56fd\u9632\u7f51<\/em><\/a>9\u67087\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">9 \u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\uff0c\u534f\u8c03\u59d4\u548c\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u56e2\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u4e3e\u884c\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31 2015 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u7b7e\u7f72\u7684\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u653f\u6cbb\u534f\u8bae\u300b\u7684\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u6539\u9769\u8fdb\u884c\u8c08\u5224--\u8be5\u534f\u8bae\u5c1a\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u534f\u8c03\u59d4\u7684\u6279\u51c6\uff08\u89c1\u9644\u4ef6\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaobserver.ly\/news\/libyan-political-agreement-amendment-meeting-kicks-tunisia\">\u6613\u535c\u62c9\u6b23<\/a>, <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>9\u670826\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.presstv.com\/Detail\/2017\/09\/26\/536562\/UN-Libya-peace-plan\"><em>\u65b0\u95fb\u7535\u89c6\u53f0<\/em><\/a>9\u670826\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u591a\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f <em>\u5916\u90e8\u8c03\u89e3\u4eba\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u5bf9\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u53c2\u4e0e\u610f\u613f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u5426\u5fae\u4e4e\u5176\u5fae\uff1f<\/em> \u548c <em>\u5bf9\u54c8\u592b\u5854\u5c14\u5c06\u519b\u6216\u56fd\u6c11\u519b\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\u5426\u5bf9\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u610f\u613f\u5f71\u54cd\u751a\u5fae\uff1f<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5bf9\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u65bd\u52a0\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u538b\u529b\u548c\u9f13\u52b1\u5176\u53c2\u52a0\u548c\u8c08\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u548c\u5e73\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u505c\u706b\u6240\u8bc1\u660e\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u4e0e\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5404\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5750\u5230\u8c08\u5224\u684c\u524d\uff0c\u5e76\u7ee7\u7eed\u63a8\u52a8\u5916\u4ea4\uff08\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c2008 \u5e74 10 \u6708 18 \u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-libya-security-france\/french-foreign-minister-in-libya-to-push-peace-deal-idUSKCN1BF1BR\">\u963f\u739b\u62c9<\/a>, <em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>9\u67084\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u52aa\u529b\u8ba9\u54c8\u592b\u5854\u5c14\u53c2\u4e0e\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u4e5f\u613f\u610f\u5c31\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4f1a\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u4f7f\u54c8\u592b\u5854\u5c14\u6210\u4e3a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7a33\u5b9a\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272\uff08\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c9 \u6708 4 \u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeastmonitor.com\/20170927-haftar-in-italy-to-discuss-terrorism-and-smuggling\/\"><em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u89c2\u5bdf<\/em><\/a>9\u670827\u65e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaobserver.ly\/news\/haftar-meets-italian-defense-minister-rome\">\u963f\u8428\u5fb7<\/a>, <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>9\u670827\u65e5\uff09--\u8fd9\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4f4d\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u8c0b\u6c42\u603b\u7edf\u804c\u4f4d\u7684\u5c06\u519b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\uff08\u300a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\uff0c9\u670827\u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.middle-east-online.com\/english\/?id=84901\">\u52a0\u7eb3\u7c73<\/a>, <em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5728\u7ebf<\/em>9\u670818\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/libyan-strongman-forcing-people-to-sign-recommendation-for-him-to-become-president\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u67087\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u5ef6\u957f\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e09\u4e2a\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u963b\u788d\u548c\u5e73\u8fdb\u7a0b\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4eba\u7269\u7684\u5236\u88c1\uff08\u300a\u6b27\u6d32\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c9 \u6708 7 \u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/allafrica.com\/stories\/201709300037.html\"><em>\u5168\u975e\u6d32<\/em><\/a>9\u670828\u65e5\uff09--\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u65bd\u52a0\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u516c\u4f17\u6297\u8bae\u548c\u5185\u90e8\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8feb\u4f7f\u5b83\u4eec\u53c2\u52a0\u548c\u8c08\u30029 \u6708 25 \u65e5\uff0c\u6570\u4ee5\u5343\u8ba1\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u4eba\u8d70\u4e0a\u8857\u5934\uff0c\u6297\u8bae\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\u53ca\u5176\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u5c55\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u4eba\u4e0a\u8857\u6e38\u884c\"\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/thousands-take-to-public-squares-in-libya-to-back-up-igtets-call-for-reform\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u670825\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u652f\u6301\u5df4\u5e0c\u7279-\u4f0a\u683c\u6cf0\u7279\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u613f\u666f--\u8fd9\u4f4d\u524d\u653f\u6cbb\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5df2\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5404\u5730\u5438\u5f15\u652f\u6301\uff08\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c9\u670825\u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/thousands-take-to-public-squares-in-libya-to-back-up-igtets-call-for-reform\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u670825\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/libyas-wannabe-president-basit-igtet-starts-getting-likes-across-the-country\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u670812\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5c3c\u6cca\u5c14\u5168\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u4f1a\u515a\uff08GNA\uff09\u548c\u521a\u679c\u9769\u547d\u519b\uff08COR\uff09\u90fd\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u5176\u6210\u5458\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\uff08\"GNA\"\uff0c9 \u6708 12 \u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/hor-member-baira-says-speaker-is-an-obstacle\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>8\u670822\u65e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaobserver.ly\/inbrief\/mp-abu-shagur-resigns-hor\">Alharathy<\/a>, <em>\u01de\u01de\u01de<\/em> <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5458<\/em>8\u670828\u65e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaobserver.ly\/news\/presidential-council-collapsing-inside-three-members-reject-al-sirrajs-decisions\">\u963f\u8428\u5fb7<\/a>, <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>9\u67084\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e3a 85%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ecb\u5165<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u652f\u6301 COR \u800c\u589e\u52a0\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86 10%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u652f\u6301\u8005\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u80fd\u529b\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u9650\u5236\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u5371\u673a\u5bf9\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8054\u5408\u914b\u957f\u56fd\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u5f71\u54cd\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u57c3\u53ca\u5728\u897f\u5948\u534a\u5c9b\u7684\u5c40\u52bf\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u5927\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u9488\u5bf9 \"\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd \"\u897f\u5948 Wilayat \u7684\u8840\u8165\u53cd\u6050\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u57c3\u53ca\u65e5\u76ca\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u52a0\u5f3a\u5176\u5728\u897f\u5948\u534a\u5c9b\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u547c\u58f0\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/egypts-long-bloody-fight-against-the-islamic-state-in-sinai-is-going-nowhere\/2017\/09\/15\/768082a0-97fb-11e7-af6a-6555caaeb8dc_story.html?utm_term=.36632b8c3c1c\">\u62c9\u52a0\u4e07<\/a>, <em>\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5<\/em>9\u670815\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/middle-east-online.com\/english\/?id=84893\">Ouf<\/a>, <em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5728\u7ebf<\/em>9\u670817\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embed-x\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Egypt?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Egypt<\/a>: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/ISIS?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#ISIS<\/a>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Sinai?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Sinai<\/a> \u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u636e\u79f0\u662f\u4eca\u5929\u5728 El-Arish \u4ee5\u897f\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u88ad\u51fb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7167\u7247\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u88ad\u51fb\u9020\u6210 5 \u540d\u5b89\u5168\u90e8\u961f\u4eba\u5458\u53d7\u4f24\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/s1HNhJueRN\">pic.twitter.com\/s1HNhJueRN<\/a><\/p>- menastream (@menastream) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MENASTREAM\/status\/919280501407535106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">2017 \u5e74 10 \u6708 14 \u65e5<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531\u4e8e\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u65b9\u9762\u53d7\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u5e72\u9884\u652f\u6301\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\u4e86 15%\u3002\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u5371\u673a\u7ed9\u591a\u54c8\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u538b\u529b--\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u5176 \"\u5728\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\"\uff08\u300a\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u5371\u673a\u300b\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/gulfnews.com\/news\/gulf\/qatar\/qatar-crisis\/financially-strained-qatar-s-clout-in-africa-diminishes-1.2095564\">Al Sherbini<\/a>, <em>\u6d77\u6e7e\u65b0\u95fb<\/em>9\u670825\u65e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/dohanews.co\/report-qatar-spends-nearly-40-billion-to-support-crisis-hit-economy\/\">\u5361\u7279\u91cc<\/a>, <em>\u591a\u54c8\u65b0\u95fb<\/em>9\u670815\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-qatar-economy\/qatar-growth-sinks-as-oil-sector-stalls-sanctions-cause-minor-damage-idUSKCN1C61JX\">\u6258\u5947\u4e9a<\/a>, <em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>10\u67081\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6b63\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u5176\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8fb9\u5883\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\uff08\u300a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\uff0c10 \u6708 1 \u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey\/turkey-sends-military-vehicles-equipment-to-syrian-border-anadolu-idUSKCN1BS0T5\"><em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em><\/a>9\u670817\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u4e89\u5148\u6050\u540e\u5730\u586b\u8865\u5176\u5bf9\u519b\u4e8b\u98de\u884c\u5458\u7684\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u6c42 (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2017\/09\/turkey-united-states-ankara-shocked-by-refusal-train-pilots.html\">\u53e4\u5c14\u574e<\/a>, <em>Al-Monitor<\/em>9\u67084\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u5173\u6ce8\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5317\u90e8\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u5bfb\u6c42\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\uff08\u300a\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\uff0c9\u67084\u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/kurdish-independence-referendum-triggers-retaliation-from-iraq-turkey\/\"><em>CBS\u65b0\u95fb<\/em><\/a>9\u670830\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2017\/09\/turkey-military-exercises-across-syria-iraq-border.html\">\u5361\u4e9a\u5965\u5362<\/a>, <em>Al-Monitor<\/em>9\u670818\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea\u300a\u5e72\u9884\u300b\u4e00\u6587\u53d1\u8868\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u786e\u5b9e\u7ecf\u5386\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5373\u5931\u53bb\u5728\u7684\u9ece\u6ce2\u91cc\u7684\u9886\u571f\u63a7\u5236\u6743\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u88ab\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u548c\u5168\u56fd\u62b5\u6297\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08COR\uff09\u6240\u63a9\u76d6\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/eyeonisisinlibya.com\/the-anti-isis-coalition\/24-30-june-anti-gna-militias-evicted-from-tripoli\/\"><em>\u5173\u6ce8\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684ISIS<\/em><\/a>\uff0c5 \u6708 30 \u65e5\uff1b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaherald.com\/2017\/05\/29\/ghwell-said-his-fighters-withdrew-to-prevent-further-damage-in-tripoli\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em><\/a>\uff0c5 \u6708 29 \u65e5\uff1b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaherald.com\/2017\/07\/07\/pro-ghwell-forces-halt-advance-on-tripoli-after-serraj-calls-for-international-allies-to-attack\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em><\/a>7\u67087\u65e5\uff09--\u5c06\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u63d0\u9ad8\u5230100%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u589e\u52a0\u5e72\u9884\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u56fd\u6c11\u519b\u7684\u6bcf\u9879\u6307\u6807\u90fd\u7565\u6709\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f7f\u8be5\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 11%\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u6700\u8fd1\u547c\u5401\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u627f\u8ba4\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u6b63\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.newindianexpress.com\/world\/2017\/sep\/17\/rival-libya-government-seeks-international-recognition-1658679.html\"><em>\u65b0\u5370\u5ea6\u5feb\u62a5<\/em><\/a>9\u670817\u65e5\uff09\uff1b\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\uff0c\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\uff08\u89c1\u300a\u5168\u56fd\u8fc7\u6e21\u59d4\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5206\u88c2\u300b\uff0c9\u670817\u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaobserver.ly\/news\/presidential-council-collapsing-inside-three-members-reject-al-sirrajs-decisions\">\u963f\u8428\u5fb7<\/a>,&nbsp;<em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5458<\/em>9\u67084\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/libyas-unity-government-suffers-blow-four-ministers-resign-480695481\"><em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4e4b\u773c<\/em><\/a>\uff0c7 \u6708 1 \u65e5\uff1b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaobserver.ly\/inbrief\/high-council-member-calls-swehli%E2%80%99s-immediate-resignation\">\u7eb3\u6770\u5c14<\/a>, <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>\uff0c6\u670822\u65e5\uff09\uff1b\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u90e8\u961f\u6b63\u5728\u6536\u590d\u9886\u571f\uff08\u89c1\u300a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3<a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/libyan-eastern-so-called-army-spokesman-is-terrorists-moving-to-northern-libya\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u67084\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/is-militants-control-wadi-al-ahmar-near-sirte\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u67083\u65e5\uff09\uff1b\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u4eba\u57289\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u6297\u8bae\u73b0\u4efb\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u8f6c\u800c\u652f\u6301\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u603b\u7406\u4e00\u804c\u7684\u524d\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5df4\u897f\u7279-\u4f0a\u683c\u6cf0\u7279\u548c\u4ed6\u5bf9\u6539\u9769\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u613f\u666f\uff08\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c9\u67083\u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/libyas-wannabe-president-basit-igtet-starts-getting-likes-across-the-country\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u670812\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/thousands-take-to-public-squares-in-libya-to-back-up-igtets-call-for-reform\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u670825\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/igtet-to-announce-new-libyan-government-by-end-of-october\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>9\u670827\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u589e\u52a0\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u4e8e\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u53cd\u79fb\u6c11\u4e3e\u63aa\u548c Toubou \u65c5\u7684\u53cd\u8d70\u79c1\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u5916\u6ea2\u6548\u5e94\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u5728\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u5e2e\u52a9\u904f\u5236\u4e86\u975e\u6cd5\u79fb\u6c11\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u975e\u6cd5\u79fb\u6c11\u6570\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86 85% (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/09\/17\/world\/europe\/italy-libya-migrant-crisis.html\">\u6c83\u5c14\u4ec0\u548c\u970d\u6d1b\u7ef4\u8328<\/a>, <em>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5<\/em>9\u670817\u65e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/sep\/07\/italian-minister-migrants-libya-marco-minniti\">\u6e29\u56fe\u5c14<\/a>, <em>\u536b\u62a5<\/em>9\u67087\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u6709\u6307\u63a7\u79f0\uff0c\u7f57\u9a6c\u4e0e\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u6c11\u5175\u8c08\u5224\u8fbe\u6210\u4e86\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u4ee5\u8865\u507f\u4ed6\u4eec\u963b\u6b62\u79fb\u6c11\u6f6e\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c9 \u6708 7 \u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/monkey-cage\/wp\/2017\/09\/25\/italy-claims-its-found-a-solution-to-europes-migrant-problem-heres-why-italys-wrong\/?utm_term=.4e81a3ea4ac8\">\u8d6b\u4f2f\u7279\u548c\u54c8\u6c99\u7ef4<\/a>, <em>\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5<\/em>9\u670826\u65e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/sep\/07\/italian-minister-migrants-libya-marco-minniti\">\u6e29\u56fe\u5c14<\/a>, <em>\u536b\u62a5<\/em>9 \u6708 7 \u65e5\uff1b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaobserver.ly\/news\/italys-aid-libyan-un-proposed-government-pays-militias-money-block-migrants-routes\">\u963f\u8428\u5fb7<\/a>, <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>8\u670830\u65e5\uff09--\u610f\u5927\u5229\u653f\u5e9c\u5426\u8ba4\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u63a7\uff08\u300a\u610f\u5927\u5229\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c8\u670830\u65e5\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.libyanexpress.com\/italian-foreign-ministry-denies-ap-report-about-paying-libyan-militias-to-block-migrants\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em><\/a>\uff0c2017\u5e748\u670830\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8fa9\u79f0\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u51cf\u5c11\u662f\u5176\u5916\u4ea4\u52aa\u529b\u548c\u5bf9\u6c11\u5175\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\uff08\u5982 \"\u91cd\u65b0\u52a0\u5165\u4e00\u652f\u5b9a\u671f\u9886\u85aa\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u519b\u961f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\"\uff09\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4ed8\u94b1\u7ed9\u6c11\u5175\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2017\/09\/17\/world\/europe\/italy-libya-migrant-crisis.html\">\u6c83\u5c14\u4ec0\u548c\u970d\u6d1b\u7ef4\u8328<\/a>, <em>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5<\/em>9\u670817\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"embed-x\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u4e0e\u5404\u79cd\u6076\u9b54\u5171\u821e\uff0c\u4e89\u76f8\u963b\u6b62\u6076\u9b54\u7684\u5165\u4fb5 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/refugees?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">1TP10 \u96be\u6c11<\/a> &amp; <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/migrants?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#migrants<\/a> \u9003 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Libya?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Libya<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/daniel_howden?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@daniel_howden<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/X6J8OCFQXj\">https:\/\/t.co\/X6J8OCFQXj<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3rRvEbBJnM\">pic.twitter.com\/3rRvEbBJnM<\/a><\/p>- \u683c\u91cc-\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\uff08@GerrySimpsonHRW\uff09 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/GerrySimpsonHRW\/status\/915189645863944199?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">2017 \u5e74 10 \u6708 3 \u65e5<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8fd8\u901a\u8fc7\u6d3e\u9063\u4e00\u8258\u519b\u8230\u534f\u52a9\u6d77\u5cb8\u8b66\u536b\u961f\u3001\u57f9\u8bad\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u6d77\u5cb8\u8b66\u536b\u961f\u548c\u6d77\u519b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4fee\u590d\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u65e0\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6d77\u519b\u8230\u8247\u7b49\u65b9\u5f0f\u516c\u5f00\u652f\u6301\u56fd\u6c11\u519b\uff08GNA\uff09\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/aa.com.tr\/en\/middle-east\/italian-military-mission-arrives-in-libya\/875177\">Geldi<\/a>, <em>\u963f\u7eb3\u591a\u5362\u673a\u6784<\/em>8 \u6708 3 \u65e5\uff1b <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeastmonitor.com\/20170919-italy-begins-training-libyan-navy-and-coastguard\/\"><em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u89c2\u5bdf<\/em><\/a>9\u670819\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ansamed.info\/ansamed\/en\/news\/sections\/politics\/2017\/09\/05\/italy-restoring-libyan-ships-training-coast-guard-pinot_042fe4ff-f9e0-4459-9a27-bfc8dab6255d.html\"><em>\u5b89\u8d5b\u871c\u5fb7<\/em><\/a>9\u67085\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u65e0\u8bba\u91c7\u7528\u4f55\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u4e0e\u56fd\u6c11\u519b\u548c\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u6c11\u5175\u8fbe\u6210\u7684\u534f\u8bae\u90fd\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u9884\u671f\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u7a7f\u8d8a\u5730\u4e2d\u6d77\u524d\u5f80\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u6f6e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0cSukour Al-Sahra \u65c5--\u4e00\u4e2a Toubou \u65c5--\u6700\u8fd1\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u5c01\u9501\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u4e0e\u5c3c\u65e5\u5c14\u548c\u4e4d\u5f97\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4ee5\u52aa\u529b\u7ed3\u675f\u975e\u6cd5\u8d27\u7269\u548c\u975e\u6cd5\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u8d70\u79c1(\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c2011 \u5e74 3 \u6708 18 \u65e5)\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaherald.com\/2017\/09\/11\/qatrun-tebu-brigade-clamps-down-on-southern-border-smuggling\/\">\u963f\u5fb7\u5c14<\/a>, <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em>9\u670811\u65e5 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaherald.com\/2017\/09\/07\/southern-border-reported-blockaded-as-qatrun-leader-confirms-big-drop-in-migrants-coming-from-niger\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em><\/a>9\u67087\u65e5\uff09\u3002Qatrun \u7684\u4e00\u540d Toubou \u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u6700\u8fd1\u62a5\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece\u5c3c\u65e5\u5c14\u6d8c\u5165\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u6f6e\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u5c11\uff08\u300a\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\uff1a\u79fb\u6c11\u6f6e\u300b\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.libyaherald.com\/2017\/09\/07\/southern-border-reported-blockaded-as-qatrun-leader-confirms-big-drop-in-migrants-coming-from-niger\/\"><em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em><\/a>9\u67087\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6307\u6807\u548c\u60c5\u666f\u66f4\u65b0<\/h2>\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/e\/2PACX-1vRGJME21IQeuSIuQSveiHJHUcoIcnX1BrJVvkEcrQGpcEW651m31rP5oUBKu3pGaZy0M5C_dIjrAVv-\/pubhtml?widget=true&#038;headers=false\" frameborder=\"0\" width=\"100%\" height=\"480\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" mozallowfullscreen=\"true\" webkitallowfullscreen=\"true\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6839\u636e\u6307\u6807\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u5404\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u5408\u5e76\u6210\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u5176\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e09\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u4e2d\u7684\u4e24\u65b9\u5df2\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u7684\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u548c\u5e73\u8ba1\u5212\uff08\"\u548c\u5e73\u8ba1\u5212\"\uff09\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u8bdd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5176\u5408\u5e76\u4e3a\u4e00\u5f20\u56fe\uff0c\u4ee5\u663e\u793a\u5176\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.africanews.com\/2017\/09\/26\/libyan-rival-parties-hold-peace-talks-in-tunisia\/\">\u535a<\/a>, <em>\u975e\u6d32\u65b0\u95fb<\/em>9\u670826\u65e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.presstv.com\/Detail\/2017\/09\/26\/536562\/UN-Libya-peace-plan\"><em>\u65b0\u95fb\u7535\u89c6\u53f0<\/em><\/a>9\u670826\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u548c\u8c08\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u786e\u5b9a\u6218\u4e89\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u6db5\u76d6\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u57fa\u5730\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6216 \"\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd \"\u53d6\u5f97\u5168\u9762\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5373\u5185\u6218\u7ee7\u7eed\u4f46\u6218\u7565\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u589e\u52a0\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u4e0d\u589e\u52a0\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u662f\u5206\u6cbb\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u6ea2\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Final-Likelihoods-Web-Version-300.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"197\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Final-Likelihoods-Web-Version-300.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-16517\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Final-Likelihoods-Web-Version-300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/Final-Likelihoods-Web-Version-300-250x164.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6839\u636e\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\u548c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u5185\u6218\u662f\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0898%\uff09\uff1b\u6539\u53d8\u6218\u7565\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u7ee7\u7eed\u6218\u4e89\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0866%\uff09\uff1b\u52a0\u5f3a\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u63a5\u8fd145%\uff0c\u4e0d\u52a0\u5f3a\u5e72\u9884\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7565\u9ad8\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc755%\u3002&nbsp;<a  data-e-disable-page-transition=\"true\" class=\"dlm-download-link\" title=\"\u7248\u672c 16 oct 2017\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/download\/16514\/?tmstv=1794151724\" rel=\"nofollow\" id=\"download-link-16514\" data-redirect=\"false\" >\n\t\u672a\u6765 3 \u5e74\u5185\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u672a\u6765--\u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u6027 2017 \u5e74 10 \u6708 16 \u65e5.jpg<\/a>\n - \u8be5\u56fe\u7247\u548c\u8be6\u7ec6\u9610\u8ff0\u7684\u573a\u666f\u96c6\u662f\u4f1a\u5458\u4e13\u4eab\u7684\u53ef\u4e0b\u8f7d\u5185\u5bb9\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u5bf9\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u76d1\u6d4b\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u9700\u8981\u5076\u5c14\u63d0\u4f9b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e66\u76ee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e13\u9898\u7167\u7247\u3002\u4e03\u6708\u7684\u505c\u706b\u300b\u520a\u767b\u4e8e <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LibyanGovernment\/photos\/a.292728117513968.70670.292681774185269\/1387793548007414\/?type=3&amp;theater\">\u6c11\u65cf\u548c\u7766\u653f\u5e9c\u7684Facebook\u9875\u9762<\/a>, 2017\u5e747\u670825\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abdulkader Assad\uff0c\"\u54c8\u592b\u5854\u5c14\u5728\u7f57\u9a6c\u4f1a\u89c1\u610f\u5927\u5229\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\"\u3002 <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670827\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u963f\u535c\u675c\u52d2\u5361\u5fb7\u5c14-\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\uff0c\"\u603b\u7edf\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u4ece\u5185\u90e8\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e09\u540d\u6210\u5458\u62d2\u7edd\u63a5\u53d7\u897f\u5c14\u62c9\u4f0a\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\"\u3002 <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67084\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Abdulkader Assad, \"\u5728\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u5e2e\u52a9\u4e0b\uff0c\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u63d0\u8bae\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u5411\u6c11\u5175\u652f\u4ed8\u94b1\u8d22\u4ee5\u963b\u6321\u79fb\u6c11\u8def\u7ebf\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>, 2017\u5e748\u670830\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u963f\u535c\u675c\u62c9-\u672c-\u6613\u535c\u62c9\u6b23\uff0c\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u653f\u6cbb\u534f\u8bae\u4fee\u6b63\u6848\u4f1a\u8bae\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u62c9\u5f00\u5e37\u5e55\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670826\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Andrew Torchia, \"\u7531\u4e8e\u77f3\u6cb9\u884c\u4e1a\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\uff0c\u5236\u88c1\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u8f7b\u5fae\u7684\u635f\u5bb3\uff0c\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u7684\u589e\u957f\u4e0b\u632b\"\u3002 <em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>, 2017\u5e7410\u67081\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barin Kayaoglu, \"\u571f\u8033\u5176\u519b\u65b9\u901a\u8fc7\u8de8\u5883\u6f14\u4e60\u53d1\u51fa\u53cd\u516c\u6295\u4fe1\u606f\"\u3002 <em>Al-Monitor<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670818\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Declan Walsh\u548cJason Horowitz\uff0c\"\u610f\u5927\u5229\uff0c\u72ec\u81ea\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u4e86\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u6d41\u52a8\u3002\u4f46\u4ee3\u4ef7\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\" <em>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670817\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elvis Boh\uff0c\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u654c\u5bf9\u515a\u6d3e\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u4e3e\u884c\u548c\u5e73\u4f1a\u8c08\"\u3002 <em>\u975e\u6d32\u65b0\u95fb<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670826\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"Ghwell\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u6218\u58eb\u4eec\u64a4\u9000\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u9632\u6b62\u5728\u7684\u9ece\u6ce2\u91cc\u9020\u6210\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7834\u574f\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e745\u670829\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u54c8\u592b\u5854\u5c14\u5728\u610f\u5927\u5229\u8ba8\u8bba\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u8d70\u79c1\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\" <em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u89c2\u5bdf<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670827\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u54c8\u5c3c-\u963f\u9a6c\u62c9\uff0c\"\u6cd5\u56fd\u5916\u957f\u5728\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u63a8\u52a8\u548c\u5e73\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\" <em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67084\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u8bae\u5458Baira\u8bf4\u8bae\u957f\u662f\u4e2a\u969c\u788d\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e748\u670822\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Housam Najjair, \"\u9ad8\u7ea7\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u547c\u5401Swehli\u7acb\u5373\u8f9e\u804c\"\u3002 <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>, 2017\u5e746\u670822\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ibrahim Ouf\uff0c\"\u5f00\u7f57\u9762\u4e34\u589e\u52a0\u897f\u5948\u534a\u5c9b\u519b\u4e8b\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u547c\u5401\"\u3002 <em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5728\u7ebf<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670817\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"Igtet\u5c06\u572810\u6708\u5e95\u524d\u5ba3\u5e03\u65b0\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670827\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"IS\u6b66\u88c5\u5206\u5b50\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u82cf\u5c14\u7279\u9644\u8fd1\u7684Wadi Al-Ahmar\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67083\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u610f\u5927\u5229\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u5426\u8ba4\u7f8e\u8054\u793e\u5173\u4e8e\u652f\u4ed8\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u6c11\u5175\u963b\u6321\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e748\u670830\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u610f\u5927\u5229\u5f00\u59cb\u57f9\u8bad\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u6d77\u519b\u548c\u6d77\u5cb8\u8b66\u536b\u961f\uff0c\" <em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u89c2\u5bdf<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670819\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u610f\u5927\u5229\u6062\u590d\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u8239\u53ea\uff0c\u57f9\u8bad\u6d77\u5cb8\u8b66\u536b\u961f--\u76ae\u8bfa\uff0c\" <em>\u5b89\u8d5b\u871c\u5fb7<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67085\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jalel Harchaoui\u548cMatthew Herbert\uff0c\"\u610f\u5927\u5229\u58f0\u79f0\u5b83\u5df2\u7ecf\u627e\u5230\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u6b27\u6d32\u79fb\u6c11\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u539f\u56e0\u3002\" <em>\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670826\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jamal Adel\uff0c\"Qatrun Tebu\u5927\u961f\u5bf9\u5357\u90e8\u8fb9\u5883\u7684\u8d70\u79c1\u6d3b\u52a8\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e25\u5389\u6253\u51fb\"\u3002 <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670811\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u7684\u516c\u6295\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u62a5\u590d\uff0c\" <em>CBS\u65b0\u95fb<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670830\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u62c9\u660e-\u7518\u7c73\uff0c\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u5f3a\u4eba\u5bfb\u6c42\u4e0d\u7ecf\u6295\u7968\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u9886\u5bfc\u6743\"\u3002 <em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5728\u7ebf<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670818\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u3002\u6b27\u76df\u5ef6\u957f\u5bf9\u963b\u788d\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u5236\u88c1\u516d\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\" <em>\u5168\u975e\u6d32<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670828\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u56e2\u4f53\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u5f00\u59cb\u4f1a\u8c08\uff0c\u4ee5\u542f\u52a8\u65b0\u7684\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\" <em>\u65b0\u95fb\u7535\u89c6\u53f0<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670826\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u4e1c\u90e8\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u519b\u961f\u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\uff1aIS\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u6b63\u5728\u5411\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5317\u90e8\u79fb\u52a8\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67084\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5f3a\u4eba\u5f3a\u8feb\u4eba\u4eec\u7b7e\u7f72\u63a8\u8350\u4e66\u8ba9\u4ed6\u6210\u4e3a\u603b\u7edf\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67087\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u56e2\u7ed3\u653f\u5e9c\u906d\u53d7\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u56db\u540d\u90e8\u957f\u8f9e\u804c\uff0c\" <em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u4e4b\u773c<\/em>, 2016\u5e747\u67081\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u60f3\u5f53\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u7279-\u4f0a\u683c\u6cf0\u7279\uff0c\u5f00\u59cb\u5728\u5168\u56fd\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u83b7\u5f97\u559c\u6b22\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670812\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meryem Goktas\u548cMahmut Geldi\uff0c\"\u610f\u5927\u5229\u519b\u4e8b\u4ee3\u8868\u56e2\u62b5\u8fbe\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\"\u3002 <em>\u963f\u7eb3\u591a\u5362\u673a\u6784<\/em>, 2017\u5e748\u67083\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Metin Gurcan, \"\u571f\u8033\u5176\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u519b\u4e8b\u98de\u884c\u5458\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\" <em>Al-Monitor<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67084\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Patrick Wintour\uff0c\"\u610f\u5927\u5229\u90e8\u957f\u4e3a\u5bfc\u81f4\u6765\u81ea\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u51cf\u5c1187%\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u8fa9\u62a4\uff0c\" <em>\u536b\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67087\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\u540e\u7684\u79ef\u6781\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\" <em>\u9632\u52a1\u7f51<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67087\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u5728\u585e\u62c9\u4f0a\u547c\u5401\u56fd\u9645\u76df\u53cb\u8fdb\u653b\u540e\uff0c\u4eb2\u683c\u97e6\u5c14\u90e8\u961f\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\u5bf9\u7684\u9ece\u6ce2\u91cc\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e747\u67087\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u62c9\u592b-\u6851\u5207\u65af\uff0c\"\u5728\u57c3\u9a6c\u7ebd\u57c3\u5c14-\u9a6c\u514b\u9f99\u4e3b\u6301\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u4f1a\u8c08\u540e\uff0c\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u5bf9\u624b\u540c\u610f\u505c\u706b\u548c\u9009\u4e3e\uff0c\" <em>\u7535\u8baf\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e747\u670825\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ramadan Al Sherbini, \"\u8d22\u653f\u7d27\u5f20\uff0c\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u5728\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\" <em>\u6d77\u6e7e\u65b0\u95fb<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670825\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u654c\u5bf9\u7684\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u653f\u5e9c\u5bfb\u6c42\u56fd\u9645\u627f\u8ba4\"\u3002 <em>\u65b0\u5370\u5ea6\u5feb\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670817\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Safa Alharathy\uff0c\"\u8bae\u5458Abu Shagur\u4ece\u8bae\u4f1a\u8f9e\u804c\"\u3002 <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>, 2017\u5e748\u670828\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shabina S. Khatri, \"\u62a5\u544a\u3002\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u82b1\u4e86\u8fd1$400\u4ebf\u6765\u652f\u6301\u53d7\u5371\u673a\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\uff0c\" <em>\u591a\u54c8\u65b0\u95fb<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670815\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u636e\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5357\u90e8\u8fb9\u5883\u88ab\u5c01\u9501\uff0c\u5361\u7279\u4f26\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6765\u81ea\u5c3c\u65e5\u5c14\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u4eba\u6570 \"\u5927\u5e45 \"\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\" <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5148\u9a71\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u67087\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sudarsan Raghavan, \"\u57c3\u53ca\u5728\u897f\u5948\u534a\u5c9b\u5bf9\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8840\u8165\u6597\u4e89\u6beb\u65e0\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\" <em>\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670815\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53cdISIS\u8054\u76df\u3002 <em>\u5173\u6ce8\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684ISIS<\/em>, 2017\u5e745\u670830\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684\u4eba\u5728\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u516c\u5171\u5e7f\u573a\u4e0a\u652f\u6301Igtet\u7684\u6539\u9769\u547c\u5401\"\u3002 <em>\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u5feb\u9012<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670825\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5411\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8fb9\u5883\u6d3e\u9063\u519b\u8f66\u548c\u88c5\u5907\u3002\u963f\u7eb3\u591a\u5362\"\u3002 <em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>, 2017\u5e749\u670817\u65e5<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u56fe\u7247\uff1a\u6c11\u65cf\u548c\u7766\u653f\u5e9c Facebook \u9875\u9762\u53d1\u5e03\u7684 \"\u4e03\u6708\u505c\u706b\"\uff0c2017 \u5e74 7 \u6708 25 \u65e5 \u5728\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e86\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e4b\u540e\uff08\u8be6\u89c1\u6b64\u5904\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u5c06\u63d0\u51fa\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u8003\u8651\u5230\u81ea\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u8bc4\u4f30\u4ee5\u6765\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5e72\u9884\u548c\u6ea2\u51fa\u6548\u5e94\u90fd\u5df2... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/16\/final-scenario-for-the-future-of-libya-and-their-likelihoods\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u5229\u6bd4\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u8bbe\u60f3\u53ca\u5176\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":156,"featured_media":16511,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[312,2499,3247],"tags":[1789,2185,2068,1949,2317,2474,2329,2555,2060,2033,2433],"class_list":["post-16482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-libya","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-featured","tag-gna","tag-gnc","tag-haftar","tag-libya","tag-libyan-partition","tag-libyan-scenario","tag-libyan-spillover","tag-libyan-war","tag-scenario","tag-scenario-likelihood","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods &#8226; 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