{"id":16748,"date":"2017-10-25T11:05:43","date_gmt":"2017-10-25T09:05:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=16748"},"modified":"2022-05-31T17:59:18","modified_gmt":"2022-05-31T15:59:18","slug":"%e4%bf%a1%e5%8f%b7-%e5%9c%9f%e8%80%b3%e5%85%b6%e6%80%bb%e7%bb%9f-%e5%9f%83%e5%b0%94%e5%a4%9a%e5%ae%89-%e5%ae%a3%e5%b8%83%e9%98%bf%e5%a4%ab%e6%9e%97-%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%8b%e4%b8%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/25\/signal-turkish-president-erdogan-declares-afrin-possible-next-military-target\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89\u5ba3\u5e03\u963f\u592b\u6797\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u519b\u4e8b\u76ee\u6807"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5bf9\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5f71\u54cd ?\u2784 \u5df4\u6c99\u5c14-\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u5e9c\u5173\u4e8e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5317\u90e8\u8054\u90a6\u548c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u91c7\u53d6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff08\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff09\uff1f\u2784 \u4f0a\u6717\u8003\u8651\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5bf9\u5317\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8054\u90a6\u548c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u91c7\u53d6\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff08\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff09 \u279a \u2783 \u571f\u8033\u5176\u5728\u963f\u592b\u6797\u5bf9\u5317\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8054\u90a6\u91c7\u53d6\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u279a \u279a \u279a Iran influence\u279a \u2784 Syrian future \u279a \u279a Israel perception of threat \u279a \u279a Middle East Tension \u279a \u279a Russia influence trial\u279a \u279a U. S.\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5ba1\u5224 \u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b8910\u670824\u65e5\u5728\u5176\u6b63\u4e49\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u515a\uff08AKP\uff09\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4e0a\u8001\u8bf4\u3002\"\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4f0a\u5fb7\u5229\u535c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b8c\u6210\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u524d\u9762\u7684\u662f\u963f\u592b\u6797\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7edd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u5a01\u80c1\u505a\u51fa\u8ba9\u6b65\"\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ee5\u524d\u548c... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/25\/signal-turkish-president-erdogan-declares-afrin-possible-next-military-target\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89\u5ba3\u5e03\u963f\u592b\u6797\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u519b\u4e8b\u76ee\u6807\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=16748\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5bf9\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5f71\u54cd ?\u2784 \u5df4\u6c99\u5c14-\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u5e9c\u5173\u4e8e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5317\u90e8\u8054\u90a6\u548c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u91c7\u53d6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff08\u5173\u952e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff09\uff1f\u2784 \u4f0a\u6717\u8003\u8651\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5bf9\u5317\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8054\u90a6\u548c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u91c7\u53d6\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u7acb\u573a\uff08\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff09 \u279a \u2783 \u571f\u8033\u5176\u5728\u963f\u592b\u6797\u5bf9\u5317\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8054\u90a6\u91c7\u53d6\u519b\u4e8b\u884c\u52a8\u279a \u279a \u279a Iran influence\u279a \u2784 Syrian future \u279a \u279a Israel perception of threat \u279a \u279a Middle East Tension \u279a \u279a Russia influence trial\u279a \u279a U. S.\u7f8e\u56fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5ba1\u5224 \u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b8910\u670824\u65e5\u5728\u5176\u6b63\u4e49\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\u515a\uff08AKP\uff09\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u5c0f\u7ec4\u4e0a\u8001\u8bf4\u3002\"\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4f0a\u5fb7\u5229\u535c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b8c\u6210\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u524d\u9762\u7684\u662f\u963f\u592b\u6797\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5bf9\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7edd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u5a01\u80c1\u505a\u51fa\u8ba9\u6b65\"\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4ee5\u524d\u548c... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/25\/signal-turkish-president-erdogan-declares-afrin-possible-next-military-target\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89\u5ba3\u5e03\u963f\u592b\u6797\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u519b\u4e8b\u76ee\u6807\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=16748\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16194,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,1335,2544,1078,3315,2499,2498,252],"tags":[2560,2549],"class_list":["post-16748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-energy-security","category-horizon-scanning-board","category-new-paradigm","category-kurds-and-kurdistan","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-russia","category-syria","tag-open-access","tag-signal","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/25\/\u4fe1\u53f7-\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf-\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89-\u5ba3\u5e03\u963f\u592b\u6797-\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Impact on Issues ?\u00a0\u2784 Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding\u00a0the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)?\u00a0\u2784 Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) \u279a\u279a\u279a\u00a0\u2783\u00a0 Turkey acting militarily against\u00a0the Federation of Northern Syria in Afrin &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cSignal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target\u201dThis content is restricted to members only. 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1a\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89\u5ba3\u5e03\u963f\u592b\u6797\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u519b\u4e8b\u76ee\u6807 \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/25\/\u4fe1\u53f7-\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf-\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89-\u5ba3\u5e03\u963f\u592b\u6797-\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Signal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"Impact on Issues ?\u00a0\u2784 Bashar al-Assad government decision regarding\u00a0the further Turkish military actions regarding the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty)?\u00a0\u2784 Iran position considering a Turkish military action in Syria against the Federation of Northern Syria and the Kurds (critical uncertainty) \u279a\u279a\u279a\u00a0\u2783\u00a0 Turkey acting militarily against\u00a0the Federation of Northern Syria in Afrin &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cSignal: Turkish President Erdogan Declares Afrin as Possible Next Military Target\u201dThis content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/10\/25\/\u4fe1\u53f7-\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7edf-\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89-\u5ba3\u5e03\u963f\u592b\u6797-\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2017-10-25T09:05:43+00:00","article_modified_time":"2022-05-31T15:59:18+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1568,"height":941,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/TreatyOfSevresMapOfTurkey-1038.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u4f5c\u8005":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4":"3 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