{"id":18204,"date":"2018-06-04T16:12:50","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T14:12:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=18204"},"modified":"2024-03-11T10:43:39","modified_gmt":"2024-03-11T09:43:39","slug":"%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e9%9d%a9%e5%91%bd%e5%92%8c%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e5%88%b6%e5%ba%a6%e7%9a%84%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e5%9c%b0%e5%8c%ba%e4%bd%9c%e7%94%a8%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/06\/04\/the-future-of-irans-regional-role-the-islamic-revolution-and-irans-political-system\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f0a\u6717\u5730\u533a\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u672a\u6765--\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u9769\u547d\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u56de\u987e\u4f0a\u67171979\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u65f6 \u4e4b\u524d<\/a>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u4ee5\u963f\u4e9a\u56fe\u62c9-\u970d\u6885\u5c3c\u57281979\u5e74\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4f0a\u6717\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u65b9\u9762\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

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\n

\u975e\u4f1a\u5458\u6216\u60a8\u7684\u5957\u9910\u7684\u8bbf\u95ee\u662f\u6709\u9650\u7684\u3002
\n\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u3002 \u6210\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5458<\/a> \u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a\u7684\u3002
\n\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f1a\u5458\uff0c\u8bf7 \u767b\u5f55<\/a>\u00a0(\u4e0d\u8981\u5fd8\u8bb0\u5237\u65b0\u9875\u9762\uff09\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u6b63\u6587 2444\u5b57 - \u7ea66\u00a0<\/span>\u9875\u6570
\n<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n

\u5173\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005\u3002 \u00a0<\/strong>Leonardo Frisani<\/a>\u00a0(MA Paris)\u76ee\u524d\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u4f0a\u6717\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6311\u6218\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u662f\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5174\u8da3\u662f\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u5b8f\u89c2\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n

\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002\u00a01978\u5e74\u4f0a\u6717\u9769\u547d--\u4e00\u6392\u4eba\u62ff\u7740\u970d\u6885\u5c3c\u7684\u7167\u7247<\/a> - \u4f5c\u8005\u4e0d\u8be6--\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5171\u4eab\u8d44\u6e90\u5728\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df<\/p>\n

\u53c2\u8003\u6587\u732e<\/h4>\n

Abrahamian, Ervand (2008)\u00a0\u73b0\u4ee3\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u5386\u53f2<\/em>, \u5251\u6865\u3002\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u3002<\/p>\n

Amir-Moezzi\uff0cM. A.\uff0c\u300a\u4ec0\u53f6\u6d3e\u5b66\u8bf4\u300b\u3002 \u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66<\/em> \u4f0a\u6717\u8bed<\/em>\uff0c2005\u5e747\u670820\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n

Axworthy, Michael (2008)\u00a0\u4f0a\u6717\u3002\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u5e1d\u56fd<\/em>\u4ece\u7410\u7f57\u4e9a\u65af\u5fb7\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u5386\u53f2<\/em>, \u4f26\u6566\u3002\u4f01\u9e45\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u798f\u5c14\u8328\uff0c\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\uff082015\uff09\u00a0\u4e16\u754c\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u4f0a\u6717<\/em>, \u725b\u6d25\u3002\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u3002<\/p>\n

Skocpol, T. \"Rentier State and Shi'a Islam in the Iranian Revoution\",\u00a0\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a<\/em>\u8bfb\u8005\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\uff0c\u4f60\u4eec\u597d\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u4f60\u4eec\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u51b3\u5b9a\u9000\u51fa\u300a\u8054\u5408\u5168\u9762\u884c\u52a8\u8ba1\u5212\u300b\uff08JCPOA\uff0c\u5373\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\u4f0a\u6717\u6838\u534f\u8bae\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5730\u533a\u5c40\u52bf\u4e2d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5176\u7279\u70b9\u662f\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u4e5f\u95e8\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u65e0\u4f11\u6b62\u7684\u4ee5\u8272\u5217-\u5df4\u52d2\u65af\u5766\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u6d77\u6e7e\u56fd\u5bb6\uff08\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c... <\/p>\n

\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\"\u4f0a\u6717\u5730\u533a\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u672a\u6765--\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u9769\u547d\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":521,"featured_media":18214,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2499],"tags":[2641,1789,91,190],"class_list":["post-18204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","tag-drivers","tag-featured","tag-iran","tag-scenarios","entry"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Future of Iran\u2019s Regional Role - The Islamic Revolution and Iran's Political System • The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article is the second of our new series aiming at foreseeing the future of Iran's regional role over the medium term (3 to 5 years). 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