{"id":225,"date":"2019-04-07T10:25:25","date_gmt":"2019-04-07T08:25:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=225"},"modified":"2021-10-01T19:06:25","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T17:06:25","slug":"%e8%ae%be%e7%bd%ae%e8%88%9e%e5%8f%b0-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/07\/setting-the-stage-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Everstate\uff1a\u8bbe\u7f6e\u821e\u53f0\uff08I\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Everstate (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/25\/%e5%88%9b%e4%bd%9c-%e5%b8%b8%e6%80%81\/\" target=\"_blank\">Everstate<\/a>&nbsp;\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u975e\u5e38\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u60f3\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u4e8e&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u9884\u89c1\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/12\/28\/%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81-%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u9884\u77e5<\/a>&nbsp;\u7684&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/29\/%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff08\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\">\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a>.\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5efa\u8bbe\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e3aEverstate\u8bbe\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53d8\u91cf\u8d4b\u503c\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u80fd\u591f\u5236\u5b9a\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u7528\u4e8e\u5236\u5b9a\u8bf4\u660e\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5728\"\"\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8bf4\u660e\u3002<a title=\"\u7528 &quot;\u81ea\u6211\u7f51\u7edc &quot;\u6784\u5efa\u5c55\u671b\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u65b9\u5f0f\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/01\/02\/%e5%9c%a8%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e6%80%a7%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e4%b8%ad%e4%bd%bf%e7%94%a8%e8%87%aa%e6%88%91%e7%bd%91%e7%bb%9c\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u7528 \"\u81ea\u6211\u7f51\u7edc \"\u6784\u5efa\u5c55\u671b\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u65b9\u5f0f<\/a>.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u52bf\u3002Everstate\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u7b49\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5927\u56fd<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f4d\u4e8e\u6b27\u4e9a\u5927\u9646\u7684\u4e2d\u7b49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0cEverstate\u81ea\u51b7\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u81ea\u4e8c\u6218\u7ed3\u675f\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5176\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u6839\u672c\u6027\u7684\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5f00\u59cb\u79ef\u805a\uff0cEverstate\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0e\u4e4b\u6297\u8861\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u65b0\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u519b\u4e8b\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-jjrIC_IG5PA\/TphDdIcfOrI\/AAAAAAAAAho\/PUSUAUwzhdQ\/s640\/geopolposs3.jpg?gl=US\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/-jjrIC_IG5PA\/TphDdIcfOrI\/AAAAAAAAAho\/PUSUAUwzhdQ\/s640\/geopolposs3.jpg?gl=US\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7ef4\u6301\u5176\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5176\u751f\u6001\u73af\u5883\u5bf9\u5176\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u9065\u8fdc\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u65e9\u5df2\u88ab\u9057\u5fd8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b83\u4ecd\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u6325\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u540c\u6837\u5730\uff0cEverstate\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0d\u518d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5176\u5927\u9646\u6027\u6c14\u5019\uff08\u5728\u8be5\u56fd\u4e1c\u5357\u90e8\u53d7\u5230\u6765\u81ea\u6d77\u6d0b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u67d4\u548c\uff09\u662f\u5f71\u54cd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5317\u90e8\u591a\u96ea\u548c\u591a\u5c71\u7684\u4e25\u9177\u73af\u5883\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u65c5\u6e38\u4e1a\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u3002\u4ece\u897f\u5317\u5230\u4e1c\u5357\u6a2a\u8de8\u5168\u56fd\u7684\u5927\u6cb3\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u5de5\u4e1a\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u65c5\u6e38\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u5165\u4fb5\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u5165\u7684\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5bcc\u9976\u7684\u4e1c\u90e8\u519c\u4e1a\u5e73\u539f\u6ca1\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u5165\u4fb5\u8005\u6216\u8d2a\u5a6a\u7684\u90bb\u5c45\u6765\u5bfb\u627e\u5bcc\u9976\u7684\u571f\u5730\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6280\u672f\u3001\u4e13\u4e1a\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0cEverstate\u7684\u519b\u961f\u662f\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5176\u89c4\u6a21\u5df2\u7ecf\u7f29\u5c0f\u3002\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u7f29\u51cf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u56fd\u9632\u519b\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u529f\u5730\u6267\u884c\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u4f53\u548c\u6709\u9488\u5bf9\u6027\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u5e7f\u6cdb\u548c\u8be6\u5c3d\u5730\u8fdb\u884c\u90e8\u7f72\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728Everstate\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u79e9\u5e8f\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f3a\u5927\u3002\u6cbb\u7406\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u5f00\u59cb\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u6548\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u663e\u7136\u4ec5\u9650\u4e8e\u62b1\u6028\u548c\u57cb\u6028\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8bc1\u636e\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb\u88ab\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u76f8\u4fe1\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4e0d\u518d\u5f97\u5230\u5145\u5206\u4fdd\u8bc1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u663e\u7136\u79bb\u56fd\u5185\u66b4\u529b\u5347\u7ea7\u5f88\u8fdc\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u79bb\u5185\u6218\u4e5f\u5f88\u8fdc\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u8fc7\u540e\u4e00\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u957f\u671f\u4ee5\u6765\u4eab\u53d7\u7684\u8212\u9002\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u65e0\u6cd5\u91c7\u53d6\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/07\/%e5%88%9b%e9%80%a0-%e6%b0%b8%e8%bf%9c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"EVT (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\">\u89c6\u89c9\u6548\u679c<\/a>,\u00a0<\/span>Everstate\u5f88\u7b26\u5408\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u56fd\u9645\u89c4\u8303\u3002\u8fd9\u4f7f\u8be5\u56fd\u5177\u6709\u56fd\u9645\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u4e0d\u5fc5\u9762\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u9488\u5bf9\u4e3b\u5bfc\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u89c4\u8303\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u7684\uff1b\u5b83\u76f8\u4fe1\u7269\u8d28\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u7269\u8d28\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u957f\u7684\u7f8e\u5fb7\uff1b\u5b83\u9075\u5b88\u5e02\u573a\u548c\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u6cd5\u5219\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u9996\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u65e7\u7684\u4e00\u795e\u6559\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u673a\u6784\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u7269\u8d28\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7cbe\u795e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6216\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u795e\u6559\u7684\u5c0f\u56e2\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u4e00\u4e9b\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u8fd8\u4f1a\u7206\u53d1\u51b2\u7a81\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Everstate\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u5f00\u59cb\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u9010\u6e10\u4e27\u5931\u7684\u6027\u80fd<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u6cbb\u7406\u4ecd\u7136\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6027\u80fd\u5374\u5728\u7f13\u6162\u5730\u3001\u9010\u6b65\u5730\u4e27\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/-FXCUiXu_9TU\/TphTTQYjRRI\/AAAAAAAAAhs\/EK6a0yE8RbM\/s640\/governances3.png.jpg?gl=US\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/-FXCUiXu_9TU\/TphTTQYjRRI\/AAAAAAAAAhs\/EK6a0yE8RbM\/s640\/governances3.png.jpg?gl=US\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f\u6309\u7167\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u548c\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u5b98\u50da\u673a\u6784\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\uff0c\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u6cd5\u5f8b\u673a\u6784\u652f\u6301\u3002\u5b83\u6839\u636e\u5730\u7406\u548c\u4e0eEverstate\u5b89\u5168\u6709\u5173\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5229\u76ca\u9886\u57df\uff08\u56fd\u9632\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u3001\u56fd\u571f\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u8d38\u6613\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u3001\u65c5\u6e38\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u7b49\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u884c\u653f\u7ec6\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u65f6\u671f\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Everstate\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u8bae\u4f1a\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8bae\u4f1a\u53c2\u4e0e\u4e86\u653f\u6cbb\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u5b83\u5bf9\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u95e8\u65bd\u52a0\u7684\u9650\u5236\u6027\u6743\u529b\u3002\u5728Everstate\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u7cbe\u82f1\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6e38\u620f\u662f\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u663e\u7136\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f53\u9009\u4ee3\u8868\u6743\u529b\u7684\u8ffd\u6c42\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u573a\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u7684\u3001\u88ab\u9057\u5fd8\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6597\u4e89\u4e5f\u5728\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u516c\u6c11\u56e2\u4f53(<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/books.google.ca\/books\/about\/Imagined_communities.html?id=4mmoZFtCpuoC&amp;redir_esc=y\" target=\"_blank\">\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee, 1991<\/a>)\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bd5\u56fe\u4fdd\u62a4\u5176\u6743\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5e76\u9075\u5b88\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u89c4\u8303\uff0cEverstate\u662f\u7ef4\u62a4\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89c4\u8303\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u56fd\u9645\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u4ece\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u5230\u5404\u7ec4\u7ec7\u90fd\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002 <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Washington_Consensus\" target=\"_blank\">\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5171\u8bc6<\/a> (\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u94f6\u884c\uff09\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u8d38\u6613\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08WTO\uff09\uff08Watson\uff0c1992\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Everstate\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8bb8\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u533a\u57df\u673a\u6784\u7684\u6210\u5458\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u72ec\u7acb\u548c\u4e3b\u6743\u6c11\u4e3b\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u533a\u57df\u8054\u76df\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u540e\u7684\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u91cc\u81ea\u7531\u52a0\u5165\u3002\u8be5\u533a\u57df\u8054\u76df\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Federation\" target=\"_blank\">\u8054\u90a6<\/a>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u6216\u5fb7\u56fd\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Federation#Confederation\" target=\"_blank\">\u8054\u90a6\u5236<\/a>\u5728\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u4f7f\u547d\u3001\u5f62\u6001\u3001\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3001\u6210\u5458\u3001\u4e13\u5c5e\u6216\u4ec5\u6709\u7684\u5171\u540c\u6743\u9650\u9886\u57df\u4ee5\u53ca\u534f\u5546\u8d23\u4efb\u90fd\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u5404\u79cd\u6761\u7ea6\u548c\u5951\u7ea6\u4e0d\u65ad\u5730\u91cd\u65b0\u5236\u5b9a\u548c\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002\u8fd9\u4e3aEverstate\u7684\u6574\u4f53\u7ba1\u7406\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e00\u5c42\u590d\u6742\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728Everstate\uff0c\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\uff08\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ca\u5176\u4ee3\u8868\uff09\u7684\u6743\u529b\u65e2\u4e0d\u5f31\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5f3a\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5404\u79cd\u7cbe\u82f1\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u6743\u529b\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f3a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u516c\u5171\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4fb5\u5360\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\u548c\u79c1\u4eba\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5206\u79bb\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4fb5\u5360\u8981\u4e48\u88ab\u9690\u85cf\u4e3a\u7316\u7357\u7684\u8150\u8d25\u548c\u88d9\u5e26\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u96be\u4ee5\u63ed\u5f00\u9762\u5177\u548c\u547d\u540d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7cbe\u82f1\u96c6\u56e2\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4fb5\u5360\u5bf9\u6cbb\u7406\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u6b6a\u66f2\u4e86\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6536\u5165\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7f13\u6162\u800c\u7a33\u5b9a\u5730\u589e\u957f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u4ece\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u5f00\u652f\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5f00\u652f\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u65e0\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u793e\u4f1a\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb60\u5e74\u4e2d\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u4e0e\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u5b83\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002\u6761\u4ef6\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ece\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u3001\u6570\u5b57\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u6280\u672f\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u5230\u98df\u54c1\u4f9b\u5e94\u548c\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u5065\u5eb7\u884c\u4e3a\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u4e5f\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u6cbb\u7406\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u66f4\u52a0\u590d\u6742\u3002\u867d\u7136\u6cbb\u7406\u610f\u5473\u7740\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u548c\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6602\u8d35\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u3002&nbsp;<span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u3002&nbsp;<\/span>\u4e3a\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u786e\u4fdd\u516c\u6c11\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u800c\u63d0\u53d6\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u8d44\u6e90\u5f00\u59cb\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u7531\u4e8e\u7cbe\u82f1\u96c6\u56e2\u5bf9\u516c\u5171\u5229\u76ca\u548c\u6743\u529b\u7684\u4fb5\u5360\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u7a81\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u5784\u65ad\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u603b\u4f53\u53ef\u7528\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u5b83\u6b63\u5728\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4efb\u4f55\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u4e0d\u6ee1\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0a\u5347\u76f4\u81f3\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a\u5185\u6218\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u90fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u66b4\u529b\u5784\u65ad\u7684\u524a\u5f31\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u87ba\u65cb\u5f0f\u4e0a\u5347\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5f71\u54cd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3001\u5bf9\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u4e2d\u7ee7\u627f\u4e0b\u6765\u7684Evertstate\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u5f3a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u88ab\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005--\u6216\u516c\u6c11--\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u4fdd\u969c\u5f00\u59cb\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u5b8c\u7f8e\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u548c\u5206\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a title=\"Everstate\uff1a\u8bbe\u7f6e\u821e\u53f0\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/01\/08\/%e6%b0%b8%e6%81%92%e4%b9%8b%e5%b7%9e-%e8%ae%be%e7%bd%ae%e8%88%9e%e5%8f%b0-%e4%ba%8c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5f85\u7eed<\/a>...<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6ce8\u91ca\u548c\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7248\u672c\u53d1\u8868\u4e8e2012\u5e741\u67082\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">* \u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6b64\u4e0d\u8be6\u8ff0\u5305\u542bs4\u7684\u8282\u70b9\uff08\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0as4\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u4ee5\u540e\u53d1\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\uff0c\u672c\u5c3c\u8fea\u514b\u7279\u3002 <em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.ca\/books?id=4mmoZFtCpuoC&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;source=gbs_ge_summary_r&amp;cad=0#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\u7684\u793e\u533a\uff1a\u5bf9\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u53cd\u601d<\/a><\/em>\u8c08\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\"\u6211\u60f3\u8bf4\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u53d8\u6210\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u57c3\u7279\u66fc\uff0c\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u3002&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=dQ53vjKiwR0C&amp;printsec=frontcover&amp;source=gbs_ge_summary_r&amp;cad=0#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u5229\u7ef4\u5766\u7684\u8bde\u751f\u3002\u4e2d\u4e16\u7eaa\u548c\u73b0\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5236\u5ea6\u5efa\u8bbe<\/a><\/em>\uff0c\uff08\u5251\u6865\uff0c\u5251\u6865\u5927\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c1997\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">\u6cf0\u52d2\u3002&nbsp;<\/span>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279&nbsp;<em>\u7f05\u7538\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6<\/em>\u8c08\u5230\u516c\u5171\u548c\u79c1\u4eba\u9886\u57df\u7684\u5206\u79bb\uff0c\u89c1\u7b2c66\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a style=\"font-style: normal; line-height: 24px; text-decoration: underline;\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Adam_Watson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u534e\u751f<\/a><span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">,&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Adam_Watson\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u4e9a\u5f53<\/a>,&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.fr\/books\/about\/The_evolution_of_international_society.html?id=wooOAAAAQAAJ&amp;redir_esc=y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/a><\/em>\uff0c\uff08\u4f26\u6566\uff1aRoutledge\uff0c1992\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zellman, Ariel, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/arielzellman.wordpress.com\/2007\/12\/05\/review-thomas-ertmans-birth-of-the-leviathan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u6258\u9a6c\u65af-\u57c3\u7279\u66fc\u7684\u300a\u5229\u7ef4\u5766\u7684\u8bde\u751f\u300b\u3002<\/a>\"\u535a\u5ba2\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Everstate\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u975e\u5e38\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u7406\u60f3\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u89c1\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\u800c\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4e3a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53d8\u91cf\u8d4b\u503c\uff0c\u4e3aEverstate\u8bbe\u5b9a\u821e\u53f0\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u80fd\u591f\u5f00\u53d1\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u7528\u4e8e\u5f00\u53d1\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u6587\u4e2d\u8bf4\u660e\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/07\/setting-the-stage-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"Everstate\uff1a\u8bbe\u7f6e\u821e\u53f0\uff08\u4e00\uff09\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21707,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[339,338,170,205,95,354,335,190,11,123,139],"class_list":["post-225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-everstates-futures","tag-ecological-setting","tag-geographical-location","tag-geopolitics","tag-governance","tag-legitimacy","tag-modern-nation-state","tag-monopoly-of-violence","tag-scenarios","tag-setting-the-stage","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-the-chronicles-of-everstate","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Everstate: Setting the stage (I) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/07\/\u8bbe\u7f6e\u821e\u53f0-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Everstate: Setting the stage (I) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Everstate&nbsp;is an ideal-type for our very real countries created to&nbsp;foresee&nbsp;the&nbsp;future of the modern nation-state. In the case of this specific scenario-building, we are setting the stage for Everstate, by attributing values to key influencing variable to be able to develop the scenarios. The explanations regarding the methodology used to develop the narrative is explained in &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cEverstate: Setting the stage (I)\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/07\/\u8bbe\u7f6e\u821e\u53f0-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-04-07T08:25:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-01T17:06:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1569\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/07\\\/setting-the-stage-1\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/07\\\/setting-the-stage-1\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Everstate: Setting the stage (I)\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-07T08:25:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-10-01T17:06:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/07\\\/setting-the-stage-1\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1422,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/07\\\/setting-the-stage-1\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/01\\\/Garden_delights-2-1568.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"ecological setting\",\"geographical location\",\"geopolitics\",\"governance\",\"legitimacy\",\"modern nation-state\",\"monopoly of violence\",\"scenarios\",\"Setting the stage\",\"strategic foresight\",\"The Chronicles of Everstate\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Creating Everstate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/07\\\/setting-the-stage-1\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/07\\\/setting-the-stage-1\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/07\\\/setting-the-stage-1\\\/\",\"name\":\"Everstate: Setting the stage (I) &#8226; 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