{"id":24516,"date":"2019-11-12T12:44:42","date_gmt":"2019-11-12T11:44:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=24516"},"modified":"2019-11-12T12:44:48","modified_gmt":"2019-11-12T11:44:48","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%86%9b%e6%96%b9%e4%b8%8e%e6%9a%96%e5%8c%96%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e7%9a%84%e6%96%97%e4%ba%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/11\/12\/us-army-versus-warming-planet\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u4e0e\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7684\u5173\u7cfb"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6d88\u5931\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5947\u602a\u6848\u4f8b<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2019\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u4e2d\u5fc3\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u51fa\u7248\u7269\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u9898\u4e3a \"\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd \"\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u5728\"\"\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u4e86\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/publications.armywarcollege.edu\/\">\u51fa\u7248\u7269<\/a>\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u9875\u9762\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u593a\u53d6\uff08\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\uff09\u4e22\u5931\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u7684\u4eba<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">\u6ce8\u610f - \u4e5f\u95e8\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u683c\u9675\u5170\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd-\u6b27\u76df\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u7248\u672c\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/climateandsecurity.org\/2019\/08\/01\/army-war-college-the-u-s-military-is-precariously-underprepared-for-climate-change\/\">\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a> \u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u524d\u8a00\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u59d4\u6258\u4e66\uff0c\u66f4\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u7248\u65e5\u671f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6839\u636eCCS\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\"<a href=\"https:\/\/climateandsecurity.org\/2019\/10\/25\/u-s-army-war-college-possible-collapse-of-the-military-mission-in-20-years-due-to-climate-change\/\">\u59d4\u6258\u7684<\/a> \u7531\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u9646\u519b\u53c2\u8c0b\u957f\u9a6c\u514b-\u7c73\u5229\u5c06\u519b\uff08\u73b0\u4e3a\u53c2\u8c0b\u957f\u8054\u5e2d\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff09\"\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u641c\u7d22\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u88ab\u4e00\u4e9b\u6587\u7ae0\u6240\u5f15\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5PDF\u7248\u672c\u53d1\u5e03\u5728\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u671f\u520a\u4e0a\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en_us\/article\/mbmkz8\/us-military-could-collapse-within-20-years-due-to-climate-change-report-commissioned-by-pentagon-says\">\u526f\u804c<\/a> \u548c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.popularmechanics.com\/military\/a29566559\/climate-change-us-military\/\">\u5927\u4f17\u673a\u68b0\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/a>.\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u5374\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u5b83\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4efd\u65e2\u662f\u53c8\u4e0d\u662f\u7684 \"\u91cf\u5b50 \"\u6587\u4ef6\u7684\u5947\u602a\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8d77\u4e86\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u975e\u5b98\u65b9 \"\u6cc4\u9732 \"\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\"<a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.fr\/books?id=8a5W04dDHTwC&amp;pg=PA5&amp;lpg=PA5&amp;dq=An+Abrupt+Climate+Change+Scenario+and+its+Consequences+for+U.S+National+Security&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=AQWCl5vjAD&amp;sig=a1Gv-UJRq-HxyHPFK6wMUQkZkKo&amp;hl=fr&amp;sa=X&amp;ei=fCoiU9_HL-Sl0AXtuoGYAg&amp;ved=0CIcBEOgBMAc#v=onepage&amp;q=An%20Abrupt%20Climate%20Change%20Scenario%20and%20its%20Consequences%20for%20U.S%20National%20Security&amp;f=false\">\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u60c5\u51b5\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u540e\u679c<\/a>\"\uff0c\u64b0\u5199\u4e86\u300a\u7f51\u7edc\u8bc4\u4f30\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u300b\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/17\/%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e4%b8%8e%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8\/\">\u6c14\u5019\u53cd\u51fb\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168<\/a>\", <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a\u3002 <\/em>2014\u5e743\u670817\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/EectB241kmY?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u5916\u89c2\u5f88\u4e0d\u5178\u578b\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u7531\u519b\u4e8b\u4eba\u5458\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u6839\u636e2003\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u6c11\u95f4\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7ec4\u7ec7\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u7814\u7a76\u8bba\u6587\u7f16\u5199\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u4e3a\u53c2\u8c0b\u957f\u7f16\u5199\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u601d\u8003\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6253\u5f00\u4e86\u4e00\u6247\u7a97\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"#mailpoet_form-3\">\u8ba2\u9605\u65b0\u6587\u7ae0<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u751f\u5b58\u95ee\u9898<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u300a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u300b\u547c\u5401\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6210\u4e3a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u6218\u7565\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u505a\u597d\u519b\u4e8b\u51c6\u5907\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7528\u5176\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u8bdd\u6765\u8bf4\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"......\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u4e0d\u505a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4f1a\u62db\u81f4\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6211\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u79cd\u56de\u62a5\u4f1a\u6709\u591a\u7cdf\u7cd5......\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5ba1\u614e\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u52aa\u529b\u907f\u514d\u707e\u96be\u6027\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u505a\u51c6\u5907\u5e76\u51cf\u8f7b\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bba\u70b9\uff0c\u672c\u62a5\u544a\u63a5\u53d7\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6838\u5fc3\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u519b\u961f\u5e94\u8be5\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6765\u51c6\u5907\"\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_GKWQhtZ4Z8?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u65e2\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4efd\u7eb2\u9886\u6027\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u8868\u8fbe\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u51c6\u5907\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a\u65f6\u671f\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u548c\u9632\u5fa1\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u529b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0d\u540c\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u8fd8\u6307\u51fa\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5373\u5c06\u6df1\u523b\u6539\u53d8\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u679c\u4e0d\u5176\u7136\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u540e\u8005\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8fdc\u5f81\u519b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u7528\u9014\u53d8\u6210\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u9632\u5fa1\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u9646\u519b\u4e5f\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u90e8\u961f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u9002\u5e94\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u6709\u5173\u7684\u65b0\u7684\u590d\u6742\u98ce\u9669\u60c5\u51b5\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd \"\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6b63\u5f0f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u90a3\u4e48\u6076\u6bd2 \"\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u4e5f\u5728\u5236\u5b9a\u4e3b\u5f20\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u6574\u4e2a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u540e\u679c\u7684\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\uff0c\u9002\u5e94\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u683c\u5c40\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u547d\u9898\u5982\u4f55\u8868\u8fbe\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc5\u901f\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u652f\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u540e\u679c\u7684\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u63d2\u5165\u4e86\u519b\u4e8b\u51c6\u5907\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ffd\u6eaf\u52302003\u5e74\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\"<a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.fr\/books?id=8a5W04dDHTwC&amp;pg=PA5&amp;lpg=PA5&amp;dq=An+Abrupt+Climate+Change+Scenario+and+its+Consequences+for+U.S+National+Security&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=AQWCl5vjAD&amp;sig=a1Gv-UJRq-HxyHPFK6wMUQkZkKo&amp;hl=fr&amp;sa=X&amp;ei=fCoiU9_HL-Sl0AXtuoGYAg&amp;ved=0CIcBEOgBMAc#v=onepage&amp;q=An%20Abrupt%20Climate%20Change%20Scenario%20and%20its%20Consequences%20for%20U.S%20National%20Security&amp;f=false\">\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7a81\u53d1\u60c5\u51b5<\/a>...... \"\u88ab\u6cc4\u9732\u4e86\uff08Valantin\uff0c\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u62a5\u544a\u8fd8\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u7acb\u573a\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e8c\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6c14\u5019 \"\u957f\u671f\u7d27\u6025\u72b6\u6001 \"\u4e2d\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u8ba9\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u63a5\u53d7\u519b\u4e8b\u673a\u5668\uff08James Howard Kunstler,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/kunstler.com\/books\/the-long-emergency\/\"><em>\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u7d27\u6025\u72b6\u51b5\uff0c\u5728\u4e8c\u5341\u4e00\u4e16\u7eaa\u6c47\u805a\u7684\u707e\u96be\u4e2d\u5e78\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765<\/em><\/a>, 2005).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u6218\u7565\u7f8e\u5fb7<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ece\u5a01\u80c1\u77e9\u9635\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\n\"\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd \"\u4ee5\u957f\u7bc7\u5927\u8bba\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5f00\u59cb\u548c\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\n\u5173\u4e8e\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u65f6\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\n\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u5373\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u590d\u6742\u540e\u679c\n\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u590d\u6742\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u662f\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u3001\u591a\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u548c\u666e\u904d\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4ecb\u7ecd\u548c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7ed3\u8bba\u786e\u7acb\u4e86\u4f7f\u7528\u5a01\u80c1\u77e9\u9635\u3001\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u548c\u4fe1\u4ef0\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u89c1\u5206\u6790\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5f15\u5bfc\u8bfb\u8005\u7406\u89e3\u63a5\u53d7\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56fd\u9632\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/about-2\/%e6%a6%82%e5%bf%b5-%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%a6\/\">\u6ee1\u8db3\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u8b66\u544a\u7684\u9700\u8981--\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u5ff5<\/a>\", <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a<\/em>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/2P8Cp1PKe28?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u8bc1\u660e\u6c14\u5019\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u751a\u81f3\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u5bf9\u7eb3\u7cb9\u56fd\u9632\u519b1941\u5e746\u6708\u5bf9\u82cf\u8054\u7684 \"\u5df4\u62c9\u5df4\u7f57\u8428 \"\u653b\u52bf\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u8fd9\u6b21\u653b\u52bf\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u6d88\u706d\u82cf\u519b\u548c\u82cf\u8054\u3002\u5728\u4f5c\u8005\u770b\u6765\uff0c\"\u5df4\u5df4\u7f57\u8428 \"\u7684\u6548\u7387\u7531\u4e8e\u82cf\u8054\u7cbe\u82f1\u4eec\u7684\u5426\u8ba4\u72b6\u6001\u800c\u88ab\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u3002\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u82cf\u8054\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45 \"\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff08Nassim Nicholas Taleb, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/The_Black_Swan:_The_Impact_of_the_Highly_Improbable\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\uff1a\u6781\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a><\/em>\uff0c2007\u5e74--\u53e6\u89c1H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u3002\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f<\/a>\"\u548c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/28\/%e6%9c%89%e7%94%a8%e7%9a%84%e8%a7%84%e5%88%99-%e4%bb%8e%e5%a1%94%e5%88%a9%e7%8f%ad%e7%9a%84%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b9%85%e4%b8%ad%e7%9c%8b%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9c%e6%99%af\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6709\u7528\u89c4\u5219<\/a>\u201d <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\">\u6210\u4e3a\u4f1a\u5458<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u548c\u8d85\u7ea7\u56f4\u57ce<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u5c55\u671b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u5f3a\u8c03\u690d\u6839\u4e8e\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u5a01\u80c1\u65e2\u662f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9646\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002  \u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u51e0\u7c7b\u5a01\u80c1\u548c\u95ee\u9898\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u5bf9\u6d77\u5e73\u9762\u4e0a\u5347\u3001\u6c34\u548c\u7cae\u98df\u7cfb\u7edf\u4ee5\u53ca\u7535\u7f51\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8be5\u6587\u4ef6\u575a\u6301\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u5916\u56fd\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\u4e5f\u662f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u7684\u65b0\u4f5c\u6218\u73af\u5883\u5c31\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u81ea2014\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684 \"\u8d85\u7ea7\u56f4\u56f0\u72b6\u6001\"\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/31\/%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e5%af%b9%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8%e7%9a%84%e5%a8%81%e8%83%81\/\">\u8d85\u7ea7\u56f4\u56f0\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168<\/a>\", <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a<\/em>\uff0c2014\u5e743\u670817\u65e5\u548c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/06\/11\/%e6%b5%b7%e5%86%9b%e4%b8%8e%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%92%8c%e6%b5%b7%e6%b4%8b%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb-%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8%e9%97%ae%e9%a2%98-1\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519bVS\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u6d77\u6d0b\u53d8\u5316<\/a>\", <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790<\/em>\uff0c2018\u5e746\u670811\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u88ab\u6700\u521d\u59d4\u6258\u7684\u4eba\u9605\u8bfb\u548c\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u6839\u636e <em>\u739b\u4e3d\u4e9a-\u798f\u5c14\u6cf0\u514b\uff08Mariah Furtek\uff09\u7684 <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/climateandsecurity.org\">\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u676520\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u7834\u574f\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u6c11\u83b7\u5f97\u98df\u7269\u548c\u996e\u7528\u6c34\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XsXnLOR2VNY?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u9762\u5bf9\u6570\u4ee5\u767e\u4e07\u8ba1\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6570\u4ee5\u5343\u4e07\u8ba1\u7684\u6cbf\u6d77\u79fb\u6c11\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6765\u81ea\u897f\u5357\u5730\u533a\u7684 \"\u6c34\u4e0a\u79fb\u6c11 \"\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u8fc1\u79fb\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5185\u5728\u7684\u52a8\u8361\u4e2d\uff0c\u519b\u961f\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u88ab\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u6df1\u6df1\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5982\u5317\u6781\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u4f18\u52bf\uff08\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u6258\u5f17-\u4f0d\u8fea\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/us-nato-navies-in-arctic-circle-in-harsh-weather-for-trident-juncture-2018-11\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u6b63\u5728\u5411\u5317\u63a8\u8fdb\uff0c\u5728\u51b0\u51b7\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5411\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9760\u8fd1--\u5b83\u6253\u7b97\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u505c\u7559\u3002<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>\u5546\u4e1a\u5185\u5e55<\/em>\uff0c2018\u5e7411\u67087\u65e5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53caJean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/09\/16\/%e4%b8%ad%e7%be%8e%e6%88%98%e4%ba%892-%e5%8c%97%e6%9e%81%e5%9c%b0%e5%8c%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%86%9b%e4%ba%8b%e7%b4%a7%e5%bc%a0%e5%b1%80%e5%8a%bf-%e6%b8%a9%e6%9a%96%e7%9a%84%e5%8c%97%e6%9e%81%e5%9c%b0\/\">\u8d70\u5411\u7f8e\u4e2d\u6218\u4e89\uff1f(2)\uff1a\u5317\u6781\u53d8\u6696\u4e0b\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a<\/em>\uff0c2019\u5e749\u670816\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e0d\u6295\u964d<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9002\u5e94\u6216\u706d\u4ea1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u5f62\u52bf\u5206\u6790\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u4ee5\u53ca\u6574\u4e2a\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u9002\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u63d0\u51fa\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u3002  \u4ece\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5efa\u8bae\u4e3a\u4f5c\u6218\u5355\u4f4d\u5f00\u53d1\u5206\u6563\u7684\u6c34\u6536\u96c6\u548c\u56de\u6536\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u5efa\u8bae\u52a0\u5f3a\u57f9\u8bad\u548c\u51c6\u5907\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u5c31\u5317\u6781\u5730\u533a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c06\u662f\u7279\u522b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u8bdd\u9898\u662f\u53d1\u5c55\u6709\u5173\u73af\u5883\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6587\u5316\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u73af\u5883\u548c\u6587\u5316\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u9002\u5e94<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u628a\u8fd9\u4e09\u9879\u5efa\u8bae\u7ed3\u5408\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u770b\u6765\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e3a\u5176\u6210\u5458\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176 \"\u670d\u52a1\u59d0\u59b9 \"\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5728 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u6781\u7aef\u73af\u5883\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/02\/15\/%e9%97%a8%e6%88%b7%e7%bd%91%e7%ab%99-%e6%9e%81%e7%ab%af%e7%8e%af%e5%a2%83-%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u6781\u7aef\u73af\u5883<\/a>.\u8fd9\u4e9b\u73af\u5883\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4ee5\u5e72\u65f1\u6216\u5bd2\u51b7\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u73af\u5883\u6587\u5316\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u652f\u6301\u519b\u4e8b\u610f\u8bc6\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8be5\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5728\u88ab\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5371\u9669\u5730\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u548c\u672a\u6765\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\uff08J.R McNeil, Peter Engelke,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.hup.harvard.edu\/catalog.php?isbn=9780674545038\"><em>\u5927\u52a0\u901f\uff0c1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u73af\u5883\u53f2<\/em><\/a>, Belknap Press, 2016\u548cGwynn Dyer, Climate Wars, 2010\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_bm98rrVZzE?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6c14\u5019\u51cf\u7f13\u548c\uff08\u519b\u4e8b\uff09\u6c14\u5019\u653f\u6cbb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ec4\u5efa\u8bae\u5bf9\u519b\u4e8b\u673a\u6784\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u80c6\u7684\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u9f13\u52b1\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5236\u5b9a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7f13\u89e3\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5efa\u8bae\u5177\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u6027\u8d28\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u673a\u6784\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u5bf9\u6297\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5229\u76ca\u76f8\u5173\u8005\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u7406\u7531\u662f\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5373\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u5c42\u9762\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u514b\u83b1\u592b-\u6c49\u5bc6\u5c14\u987f\u3002&nbsp;<em>\u8511\u89c6\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u4e2d\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u547d\u8fd0<\/em>, 2017). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ece\u6c11\u4e8b\u5230\u519b\u4e8b\u6c14\u5019\u653f\u6cbb\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6070\u597d\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u6000\u7591\u8bba\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u7acb\u573a\u7279\u522b\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u59ff\u6001\u901a\u8fc7\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7-\u7279\u6717\u666e\u603b\u7edf\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u9000\u51fa\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u800c\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\uff08Rebecca Hersher\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2019\/11\/04\/773474657\/u-s-formally-begins-to-leave-the-paris-climate-agreement\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u59cb\u9000\u51fa\u5df4\u9ece\u6c14\u5019\u534f\u5b9a<\/a>\",<em> NPR<\/em>\uff0c2019\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ece\u6c14\u5019\u98ce\u9669\u5230\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u653f\u6cbb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bc6\u96c6\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u6697\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u548c\u6076\u5316\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u98df\u54c1\u548c\u5065\u5eb7\u540e\u679c\u7684\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5173\u7cfb\u5373\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5185\u548c\u56fd\u5916\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u9ad8\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u679c\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u5426\u8ba4\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/02\/11\/%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96-%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8d%e6%96%ad%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e4%b8%8a%e6%98%af%e7%94%9f%e5%ad%98%e8%bf%98%e6%98%af%e6%ad%bb%e4%ba%a1\/\">\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u662f\u751f\u662f\u6b7b\uff1f<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a<\/em>\uff0c2019\u5e742\u670811\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u89e3\u51b3\u7f13\u89e3\u95ee\u9898\u5c06\u662f\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u66f4\u65b0\u5176\u793e\u4f1a\u63a5\u53d7\u5ea6\u548c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u66f4\u65b0\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u6709\u6548\u9014\u5f84\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u6838\u7684\u5173\u7cfb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6c11\u7528\u548c\u519b\u7528\u6838\u8bbe\u65bd\u5bf9\u6d77\u6d0b\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u6cb3\u6d41\u5347\u6e29\u7684\u540e\u679c\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u7aef\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9020\u6210\u6838\u4e8b\u6545\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5c06\u73b0\u5728\u548c\u672a\u6765\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0e\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u5bf9\u6838\u4e8b\u6545\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5371\u9669\u6027--\u5207\u5c14\u8bfa\u8d1d\u5229--\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6848\u4f8b\u4e3a\u6b63\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5371\u9669\u610f\u8bc6\u63d0\u4f9b\u4f9d\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u519b\u961f\u73b0\u5728\u5fc5\u987b\u5f00\u59cb\u51c6\u5907\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7a33\u5065\u6027\u548c\u5f39\u6027\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u62b5\u5fa1\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7834\u574f\u6027\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5c06\u6c14\u5019\u6570\u636e\u7eb3\u5165\u519b\u4e8b\u548c\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u7684\u60c5\u62a5\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u63d0\u9ad8\u8054\u5408\u548c\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ARnxfWiRk7g?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u519b\u961f\u4e0e\u57ae\u53f0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8d3e\u91cc\u5fb7-\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u5730\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5f00\u521b\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4f5c\u8005 <em>\u5d29\u6e83<\/em> \u9009\u62e9 \"\u793e\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u5931\u8d25\u6216\u6210\u529f \"\u4f5c\u4e3a\u526f\u6807\u9898\uff08Jared Diamond, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.penguinrandomhouse.com\/books\/288954\/collapse-by-jared-diamond\/\">\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u793e\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u5931\u8d25\u6216\u751f\u5b58<\/a><\/em>, 2005).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u5bf9\u8d3e\u91cc\u5fb7-\u6234\u8499\u5fb7\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u3002\u5b83\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u519b\u961f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e94\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6218\u7565\u548c\u751f\u5b58 \"\u6210\u529f \"\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u624b\u6bb5\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ca\u5176\u519b\u961f\u7684\u751f\u5b58\uff0c\u672c\u62a5\u544a\u65e2\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u4e5f\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u519b\u961f\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u5b59\u5b50\u5728\u300a\u8bba\u8bed\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5efa\u8bae\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002 <em>\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u827a\u672f<\/em>: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-large is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"\u77e5\u5df1\u77e5\u5f7c\uff0c\u767e\u6218\u4e0d\u6b86\uff0c\u767e\u6218\u767e\u80dc\"\u3002 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u672c\u6587\u4ef6\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u88ab\u542c\u53d6\u548c\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u5728\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6218\u7565\u76ee\u6807\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u4ece \"\u957f\u671f\u7d27\u6025\u72b6\u6001 \"\u65f6\u4ee3\u8d70\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6210\u4e3a \"\u957f\u671f\u6210\u529f \"\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u548c\u56e0\u7d20\u6765\u56de\u7b54 \"\u957f\u671f\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\"\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/people\/41284017@N08\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8<\/a> \u9ad8\u7ea7\u7a7a\u519b\u58eb\u5175Crystal Housman\/\u52a0\u5dde\u56fd\u6c11\u8b66\u536b\u961f\uff0c2017\u5e7412\u670815\u65e5\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u62a5\u544a\u6d88\u5931\u7684\u602a\u4e8b 2019\u5e748\u6708\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u4e2d\u5fc3\u53d1\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5173\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u9898\u4e3a \"\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd \"\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\u7684 \"\u51fa\u7248\u7269 \"\u9875\u9762\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u4e86\u3002... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/11\/12\/us-army-versus-warming-planet\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u4e0e\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u5730\u7403 \"\u4e4b\u4e89<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":24582,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,1722,2860,2558],"tags":[1789],"class_list":["post-24516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-featured","category-climate-and-resources-crisis","tag-featured","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/11\/12\/\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u4e0e\u6696\u5316\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6597\u4e89\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The strange case of the disappearing report In August 2019, the Centre for Climate and Security published an article about a recent publication by the U.S Army War College. The document, entitled \u201cImplications of Climate change for the U.S Army\u201d, however, cannot be found anymore on the \u201cpublications\u201d page of the U.S Army War College. &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cThe U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/11\/12\/\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u4e0e\u6696\u5316\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6597\u4e89\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-11-12T11:44:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-11-12T11:44:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/US-Army-vs-climate-change-featured-image.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/12\\\/armee-us-contre-rechauffement-planetaire\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/12\\\/armee-us-contre-rechauffement-planetaire\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b840ac3537c3f891b6e61a6e559775fe\"},\"headline\":\"The U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-11-12T11:44:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-11-12T11:44:48+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/12\\\/armee-us-contre-rechauffement-planetaire\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2277,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/12\\\/armee-us-contre-rechauffement-planetaire\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/US-Army-vs-climate-change-featured-image.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Americas\",\"Environmental Geostrategy\",\"Featured\",\"Resources crisis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/12\\\/armee-us-contre-rechauffement-planetaire\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/12\\\/armee-us-contre-rechauffement-planetaire\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/fr\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/12\\\/armee-us-contre-rechauffement-planetaire\\\/\",\"name\":\"The U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet &#8226; 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Views expressed are their own. He is specialised in strategic studies and defense sociology with a focus on environmental geostrategy. He is the author of \\\"Menace climatique sur l\u2019ordre mondial\\\" (Climatic threat on the world order), \\\"Ecologie et gouvernance mondiale\\\" (Ecology and world governance), \\\"Guerre et Nature, l\u2019Am\u00e9rique pr\u00e9pare la guerre du climat, \\\"(War and nature: America gets ready for climate war) and of \\\"Hollywood, the Pentagon and Washington\\\".\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/jeanmichelvalantin\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u53d8\u6696 \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/11\/12\/\u7f8e\u56fd\u519b\u65b9\u4e0e\u6696\u5316\u5730\u7403\u7684\u6597\u4e89\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"The U.S. Army versus a Warming Planet &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"The strange case of the disappearing report In August 2019, the Centre for Climate and Security published an article about a recent publication by the U.S Army War College. 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