{"id":24744,"date":"2021-02-01T16:45:00","date_gmt":"2021-02-01T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=24744"},"modified":"2026-06-10T18:47:18","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T16:47:18","slug":"%e4%bd%a0%e7%9a%84%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e6%9c%89%e6%95%88-%e6%b5%8b%e8%af%95%e5%92%8c%e6%a3%80%e6%9f%a5%e6%b8%85%e5%8d%95-6%e7%82%b9%e5%bc%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/02\/01\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f60\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5c55\u671b\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6548\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u60c5\u666f\u5efa\u8bbe\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u51c6\u5907\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ece\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u5230\u901a\u8fc7\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fdb\u884c\u6218\u7565\u5c55\u671b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u6240\u6709\u9700\u8981\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u5de5\u5177\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u9700\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u51cf\u8f7b\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ee5\u5236\u5b9a\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6765\u771f\u6b63\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u6709\u6548\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u3002 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1568\" height=\"941\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941.jpg\" alt=\"\u5206\u5f62\u68cb\u76d8\u2014\u2014\u300aRed Team Analysis Society\u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff1a\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\uff1a\u6784\u5efa\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u5371\u673a\u60c5\u666f\u300b\u7684\u5c01\u9762\u56fe\u7247\" class=\"wp-image-41886\" style=\"width:250px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fractal-environment-1728594_1568-x-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1568px) 100vw, 1568px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center textfutura wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.7em\">\u67e5\u770b\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b\u2014\u2014\u300a\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u300b\uff1a <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e5%9c%a8%e7%ba%bf%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba-%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e6%9e%84%e5%bb%ba\/\">\u6784\u5efa\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u4e0e\u5371\u673a\u60c5\u666f<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u60a8\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4efd\u8981\u70b9\u6e05\u5355\u2014\u2014\u5373\u60c5\u666f\u6709\u6548\u6027\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u2014\u2014\u60a8\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f7b\u677e\u5730\u5bf9\u7167\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8981\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u9a8c\u8bc1\u5373\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5b58\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u9677\u3002 \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u5c55\u73b0\u4e86\u8be5\u8bae\u9898\u7684\u524d\u6cbf\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u60a8\u4e5f\u65e0\u6cd5\u5229\u7528\u5b83\u4eec\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u8bbe\u5b9a\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u7f3a\u9677\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u80fd\u6df1\u523b\u53cd\u6620\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u3001\u6bd2\u54c1\u8d70\u79c1\u3001\u91cf\u5b50\u6280\u672f\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u6218\u4e89\u7b49\u8bae\u9898\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5bf9\u76f8\u5173\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u5f88\u5230\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u60c5\u666f\u8bbe\u5b9a\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u9519\u8bef\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u6beb\u65e0\u7528\u5904\u3002.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<p class=\"textfutura wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.8em\"><strong>\u5185\u5bb9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul style=\"font-size:0.7em;font-style:normal;font-weight:300\" class=\"wp-block-list textfutura\">\n<li><a href=\"#test\">\u53c2\u52a0\u6d4b\u8bd5<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"#check\">\u68c0\u67e5\u60a8\u7684\u573a\u666f\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6548<\/a>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"#range\">1- \u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5426\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8303\u56f4\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"#exclusive\">2- \u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"#dynamic\">3- \u60c5\u666f\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u5417\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"#time\">4- \u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u5426\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"#likelihood\">5- \u662f\u5426\u4e3a\u6bcf\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"#means\">6- \u6211\u662f\u5426\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u9700\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u51cf\u8f7b\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ee5\u5236\u5b9a\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u5bf9\u7b56\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u6765\u771f\u6b63\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u6709\u6548\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u8ba4\u8bc6\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0b\u9762\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u7ebf\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u4f60\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u63d0\u51fa\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u68c0\u67e5\u6e05\u5355\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u70b9\u90fd\u6709\u89e3\u91ca\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6bcf\u4e00\u70b9\u5bf9\u7528\u6237\u90fd\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u786e\u4fdd\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fc5\u8981\u6761\u4ef6\u5f97\u5230\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u5065\u5168\u6027\u7684\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u5c0a\u91cd\u4e00\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u5bf9\u7528\u6237\u6765\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8b66\u544a\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4efd\u68c0\u67e5\u6e05\u5355\u5bf9\u7528\u6237\u548c\u4ece\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u90fd\u5f88\u6709\u7528\u3002 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-250x150.png\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-250x150.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"RTAS\u520a\u8f7d\u7684\u8d6b\u83b2\u5a1c\u00b7\u62c9\u6c83\u74e6\u535a\u58eb\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u300a\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5ce1\u4e0e\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93\u300b\u7684\u914d\u56fe\u2014\u2014\u56fe\u7247\u7531\u8ba9-\u591a\u7c73\u5c3c\u514b\u00b7\u62c9\u6c83\u74e6-\u5361\u5229\u63d0\u4f9b\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\u63d2\u56fe\uff1aJean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-wo-yemen.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">\u6ce8\u610f - \u4e5f\u95e8\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\u63d2\u56fe\uff1aJean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-US-greenland-EU.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u683c\u9675\u5170\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd-\u6b27\u76df\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"if-you-are-a-user-of-scenario\"><strong>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u7684\u7528\u6237<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6ca1\u6709\u5efa\u7acb\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6ca1\u6709\u638c\u63e1\u5efa\u7acb\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u68c0\u67e5\u6e05\u5355\u5c06\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u8f7b\u677e\u8bc4\u4f30\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"if-you-are-a-scenario-builder\"><strong>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u8005<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4ece\u4e1a\u8005\uff0c\u8fd9\u4efd\u68c0\u67e5\u8868\u5c06\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u5728\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5c3d\u65e9\u9a8c\u8bc1\u4f60\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u5c06\u786e\u4fdd\u4f60\u6b63\u5728\u5efa\u7acb\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u3001\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"what-if-you-do-not-use-scenarios\"><strong>\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u600e\u4e48\u529e\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u7684\u6218\u7565\u3001\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u4f60\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u90fd\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4f60\u6ca1\u6709\u4f7f\u7528\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u771f\u7684\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u51b3\u5b9a\u67d0\u4e8b\u65f6\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u62e5\u6709\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u672a\u6765\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cEpstein\uff0c\"\u4e2d\u56fd\"\uff09\u3002<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk\/11\/4\/12.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u505a\u6a21\u578b\uff1f<\/a>', 2008<em>)<\/em>.\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u4e00\u5957\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u9690\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u521b\u5efa\u7684\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u662f\u9690\u542b\u7684\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u8bb8\u591a\u504f\u89c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b\/\">\u5728\u7ebf\u5efa\u6a21\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a>\uff0c\u6a21\u57572\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531\u4e8e\u9690\u542b\u5730\uff0c\u4f60\u5bf9\u4f60\u6240\u505a\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5957\u8def\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c06\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7528\u4e8e\u4f60\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5c55\u671b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"test\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6d4b\u8bd5\u4f60\u7684\u65b9\u6848<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u6ce8\u610f\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u63a5\u53d7\u4f60\u7684\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u5730\u5740\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4f60\u80fd\u901a\u8fc7\u7535\u5b50\u90ae\u4ef6\u6536\u5230\u6d4b\u8bd5\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u5b83\u4eec\u505a\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u8ba2\u9605\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u65b0\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8bf7\u4f7f\u7528 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u6b64\u8868\u683c\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/#mailpoet_form-3\" target=\"_blank\">\u6b64\u8868\u683c<\/a>.\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u540d\u4f1a\u5458\uff0c\u8bbf\u95ee\u662f <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u8fd9\u91cc\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>.<\/em> <em>\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u5173\u4e8e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u533f\u540d\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bf9\u65b9\u6848\u53ca\u5176\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b8c\u6210\u6d4b\u8bd5\u540e\uff0c\u70b9\u51fb\u63d0\u4ea4\u5e76\u9605\u8bfb\u6bcf\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u6839\u636e\u9047\u5230\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7c7b\u578b\uff0c\u5efa\u8bae\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u4f60\u7684\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u662f\u65e0\u6548\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u8fd8\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u4f60\u7684\u603b\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/forms\/d\/e\/1FAIpQLSeyNuhHLHxDVQP8I2ERlSzD27LVMT_NBjpQMxDVEcuobycOSg\/viewform?embedded=true\" width=\"640\" height=\"2042\" frameborder=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\">\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u8f7d...<\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"check\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6709\u6548\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u68c0\u67e5\u6e05\u5355<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"range\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">1- \u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5426\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8303\u56f4\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u60c5\u666f\u5fc5\u987b\u6db5\u76d6\u6574\u4e2a <strong>\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/strong>.\u9c81\u5179\u3001\u9ea6\u514b\u5c14\u591a\u5c3c\u548c\u6cf0\u52d2\u5728\u53f3\u624b\u8fb9\u7684\u56fe\u753b\u4e2d\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff081986\u5e74\uff0c\u5f15\u81ea\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\uff09\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil\/pdffiles\/PUB245.pdf\">\u6cf0\u52d2\uff0c1993\u5e74<\/a>\u8be6\u89c1\u7b2c1\u7ae0\u548c\u7b2c7\u8282\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"plausible-or-possible-futures\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5408\u7406\u7684\u6216\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff1f <\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"540\" height=\"692\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Range-of-possible-futures.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24754\" style=\"width:227px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Range-of-possible-futures.jpg 540w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Range-of-possible-futures-234x300.jpg 234w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/Range-of-possible-futures-250x320.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><br>Rutz, McEldowney and Taylor in&nbsp;<em>\u6cf0\u52d2\uff0c1993\u5e74<\/em>\uff1a\u7b2c1\u7ae0\u548c\u7b2c7\u7ae0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6cf0\u52d2\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u559c\u6b22\u770b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5408\u7406\u6027\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5408\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u504f\u89c1\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b\/\">\u5728\u7ebf\u5efa\u6a21\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a>\u6a21\u57572\uff09\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u5728\u4f60\u770b\u6765\u5408\u7406\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u4f60\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u6b63\u786e\u6027\u3001\u7fa4\u4f53\u601d\u7ef4\u6216\u89c4\u8303\u6027\u5224\u65ad\u7b49\u7684\u727a\u7272\u54c1\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u53ef\u80fd\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u4f60\u5e0c\u671b\u672a\u6765\u662f\u600e\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u8003\u8651\u6240\u6709\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u5c31\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u610f\u5916\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u51cf\u5c11\u610f\u5916\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-does-it-matter-to-you\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4f60\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5bf9\u4f60\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u786e\u5b9e\u5f88\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4f60\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u5fd8\u8bb0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6216\u591a\u4e2a\u8bbe\u60f3\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u6295\u7968\u524d\u7684\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u8ba4\u4e3a\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7ed9\u4e86\u4f60\u4e00\u5957\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6848\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5b83\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u51e0\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u4e13\u6ce8\u4e8e\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u65b0\u89c4\u5219\uff08\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u521b\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u63cf\u8ff0\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u63cf\u8ff0\u82f1\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u65b0\u7231\u60c5\u6545\u4e8b\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u4f60\u5f00\u59cb\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u5236\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\u7b49\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6295\u7968\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u4e86...\u82f1\u56fd\u8131\u6b27\u3002\u800c\u4f60\u53d1\u73b0\u81ea\u5df1\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u51c6\u5907\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8f76\u4e8b\u6b63\u597d\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8981\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u76f8\u53cd\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5173\u4e8eCOVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u7b80\u77ed\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4e4f\u6ca1\u6709\u8003\u8651\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u521b\u9020\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u9519\u8bef\u5730\u628a\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f\u65e0\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u7981\u6b62\u8fdb\u884c\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u5c55\u793a\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u4efb\u4f55\u672a\u6765\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-is-it-a-methodological-guarantee\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u5b83\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u5982\u4f60\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u7684\uff0c\u573a\u666f\u662f\u7531\u4ef7\u503c\u6216\u5c5e\u6027\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u3002 <a aria-label=\"\u53d8\u91cf\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/socialresearchmethods.net\/kb\/variable.php\" target=\"_blank\">\u53d8\u91cf<\/a> \u9009\u62e9\u6765 \"\u4ee3\u8868 \"\u4f60\u6700\u521d\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u91cf\u4e0d\u5728\u672c\u6587\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5185\uff08\u89c1\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8bfe\u7a0b <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e5%9c%a8%e7%ba%bf%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%92%8c%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e6%9e%84%e5%bb%ba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f\u5efa\u8bbe<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"668\" height=\"168\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/variables-attributes.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24755\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/variables-attributes.jpg 668w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/variables-attributes-300x75.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/variables-attributes-250x63.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 668px) 100vw, 668px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6570\u5b66\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u6216\u503c\u5fc5\u987b\u662f <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/socialresearchmethods.net\/kb\/variable.php\" target=\"_blank\">\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684<\/a>\u5373\u6db5\u76d6\u53d8\u91cf\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u53ef\u80fd\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6570\u503c\uff0c\u5982\u53f3\u4fa7\u5173\u4e8e\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5728\u7ebf\u5efa\u6a21\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a>\uff0c\u6a21\u57574\uff0c\u89e3\u91ca\u5982\u4f55\u786e\u5b9a\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u548c\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u786e\u4fdd\u8fd9\u4e9b\u662f\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ece\uff08\u53d8\u91cf\uff09\u503c\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u4e2d\u5efa\u7acb\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u8be6\u5c3d\u7684\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u9002\u5f53\u9009\u62e9\u4f60\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4f60\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u96c6\u6db5\u76d6\u4e86\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6784\u5efa\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5c31\u4f1a\u81ea\u52a8\u6db5\u76d6\u6574\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u6ca1\u6709\u6db5\u76d6\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u95ee\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e0d\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u597d\u5411\u4ed6\u4eec\u6838\u5b9e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5408\u7406\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u8981\u8b66\u60d5\u4e86\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6700\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u4f1a\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u8df3\u51fa\u6846\u6846\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4f60\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b0\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u6765\u5236\u5b9a\u6218\u7565\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u672c\u6765\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"exclusive\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">2- \u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u5426\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u6307\u4e0d\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6216\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-does-it-matter-to-you\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4f60\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6761\u4ef6\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u6db5\u76d6\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8303\u56f4\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4f60\u5c31\u80fd\u4e3a\u8de8\u8d8a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7d27\u6025\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74\u51c6\u5907\u9884\u7b97\u548c\u6750\u6599\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u5728\u7ed9\u4f60\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u7ed9\u4f60\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u65b9\u6848\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u9707\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u800c\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u5730\u9707\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u9707\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u6848\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u4e2a\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u5730\u9707\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9047\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f60\u5c06\u6ca1\u6709\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u5e94\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4f60\u5c06\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u6750\u6599\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u8d44\u91d1\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u901a\u8fc7\u60c5\u666f\u6a21\u62df\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u4efb\u4f55\u60c5\u51b5\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u591f\u5236\u5b9a\u51fa\u5728\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u90fd\u662f\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-is-it-a-methodological-guarantee\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u5b83\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u7279\u6027\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u91cf\u7684\u5c5e\u6027\u5fc5\u987b\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u4e5f\u5c06\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u5c06\u81ea\u52a8\u5730\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u4e0d\u662f\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u65e0\u6cd5\u771f\u6b63\u60f3\u8c61\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u529e\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u633d\u6551\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6700\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u5c06\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u8df3\u51fa\u6846\u6846\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u4f60\u63d0\u4f9b\u65b0\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002 <br>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u6765\u6307\u5bfc\u6218\u7565\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5371\u9669\u7684\u3002<br>\u60ca\u5947\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u5f97\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"dynamic\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">3- \u60c5\u666f\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u5417\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5373\u8ba9\u4f60\u5236\u5b9a\u4e00\u5957\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u6765\u5904\u7406\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5c0a\u91cd\u524d\u9762\u7684\u7279\u5f81--\u8be6\u5c3d\u6027\u548c\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\u6027--\u800c\u4e14\u6700\u597d\u4e5f\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-does-it-matter-to-you\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4f60\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u573a\u666f\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u4e5f\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u786e\u5b9a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u8981\u70b9\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u9700\u8981\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u5c55\u6210\u5b50\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u5408\u7406\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u672a\u6765\u7684\u72b6\u51b5\u4e0e\u73b0\u5728\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u53d9\u8ff0\u4e2d\u8bf4\u660e\u5173\u952e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3001\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u540e\u679c\"\u3002 <\/p>\n<cite>Glenn, Jerome C. and The Futures Group International, \"Scenarios,\" \u3002<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u5c55\u5f00\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5448\u73b0\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/18\/%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%94%b9%e5%96%84%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d-%e6%84%9f%e8%b0%a2%e5%81%8f%e8%a7%81\/\">\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u504f\u89c1\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5c55\u671b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a>).\u6545\u4e8b\u548c\u53d9\u4e8b\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-is-it-a-methodological-plus\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u5b83\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f18\u70b9\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u4e0a\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u548c\u4fdd\u8bc1\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002\u52a8\u6001\u60c5\u666f\u589e\u5f3a\u4e86\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u6a21\u62df\u4e13\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u6307\u51fa\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u5c31\u4fdd\u8bc1\u4e86\u4ed6\u6216\u5979\u5728\u60c5\u666f\u6a21\u62df\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u4ee5\u53ca\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u90a3\u4e9b\u6784\u5efa\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u4eba\u771f\u6b63\u601d\u8003\u8fc7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u538b\u529b\u6d4b\u8bd5\uff0c\u5e76\u52aa\u529b\u63a2\u7d22\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u786e\u663e\u793a\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u50cf\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u6839\u636e\u5176\u4ed6\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd8\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u6765\u6307\u5bfc\u6218\u7565\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"time\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">4- \u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u5426\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u4e00\u5957\u6709\u6548\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u5f97\u5230\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65b9\u6848\u90fd\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u4f5c\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u9009\u62e9\u6216\u591a\u6216\u5c11\u5730\u53d1\u5c55\u8fd9\u90e8\u5206\u6216\u90a3\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u96c6\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u6db5\u76d6\u6240\u6709\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6709\u65f6\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u5f97\u5230\u4e0d\u5728\u540c\u4e00 \"\u65f6\u95f4\u5e73\u9762 \"\u4e0a\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-does-it-matter-to-you\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4f60\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u60c5\u666fA\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u60c5\u666fB\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u662f\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74\u5230\u7b2c\u56db\u5e74\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u800c\u4f60\u53ea\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u5c31\u65e0\u6cd5\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e24\u79cd\u60c5\u666f......\u8fd8\u662f\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u60c5\u666fB\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u60c5\u666fA\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684\u5ef6\u7eed\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u662f\u60c5\u666fA\u548c\u60c5\u666fA1\uff08\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u6709A2\uff09\uff0c\u540e\u4e24\u8005\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u60c5\u666fA\u4ece\u7b2c2\u5e74\u5230\u7b2c4\u5e74\u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4f60\u8fd8\u5e94\u8be5\u5f97\u5230\u60c5\u666fB0\uff0c\u5b83\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e86\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u5230\u7b2c2\u5e74\u6240\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5e76\u5bfc\u81f4\u60c5\u666fB\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 id=\"why-is-it-a-methodological-guarantee\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u5b83\u662f\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bba\u7684\u4fdd\u8bc1\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u4f60\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u771f\u6b63\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u80fd\u591f\u9610\u660e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u56e0\u679c\u8054\u7cfb\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u573a\u666f\u5efa\u8bbe\u5982\u6b64\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u5173\u4e8e\u5efa\u6a21\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\u3002\">\u5728\u7ebf\u5efa\u6a21\u8bfe\u7a0b<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6709\u4e86\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u4e3a\u4f60\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u5b50\u60c5\u666f\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u5957\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u6765\u76d1\u6d4b\u3001\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u6307\u5bfc\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u4f60\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u5957\u60c5\u666f\u6765\u5236\u5b9a\u6218\u7565\u548c\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6218\u7565\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5728\u6240\u6709\u60c5\u666f\u4e0b\u90fd\u662f\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6ca1\u6709\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e00\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u5c31\u4e0d\u5982\u6709\u6982\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"means\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">6- \u6211\u662f\u5426\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u6784\u5efa\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff1f <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u4f60\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u4f60\u6536\u5230\u7684\u90a3\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u60c5\u666f\u5efa\u8bbe\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9ad8\u8981\u6c42\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5b83\u8981\u6c42\u5bf9\u624b\u5934\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6709 \"\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u77e5\u8bc6\"\uff08Mietzner \u548c Reger, 2005: 236\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u8fd8\u8981\u6c42\u638c\u63e1\u65b9\u6cd5\u5e76\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u7528\u5b83\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f \"\u8017\u65f6\u7684\"\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6709\u6548\u800c\u4e14\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6295\u8d44\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u60c5\u666f\u53ef\u4ee5--\u800c\u4e14\u5e94\u8be5--\u957f\u671f\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6d88\u8d39\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u8981\u6c42\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u5bb6\u6216\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e13\u5bb6\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u5185\u90e8\u7684\uff0c\u5236\u5b9a\u65b9\u6848\u800c\u4e0d\u7ed9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8d44\u6e90\uff08\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u91d1\u94b1\uff09\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u6781\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u8bbe\u5b9a\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4f60\u6240\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"global-result-and-score\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5168\u7403\u7ed3\u679c\u548c\u5f97\u5206<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5bf9\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6bcf\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u90fd\u662f\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5047\u8bbe\u5bf9\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4e5f\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u5b83\u6765\u5236\u5b9a\u6218\u7565\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f60\u4e0d\u5e94\u8be5\u5fd8\u8bb0\uff0c\u9884\u89c1\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u60c5\u666f\u6240\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u603b\u662f\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u3002\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f<\/a> \u548c <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/28\/%e6%9c%89%e7%94%a8%e7%9a%84%e8%a7%84%e5%88%99-%e4%bb%8e%e5%a1%94%e5%88%a9%e7%8f%ad%e7%9a%84%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b9%85%e4%b8%ad%e7%9c%8b%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9c%e6%99%af\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6709\u7528\u89c4\u5219<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u6709\u4e86\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f60\u5c06\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5730\u51cf\u5c11\u610f\u5916\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5206\u6570\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u8d8a\u5e94\u8be5\u5bf9\u4f60\u7684\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u4fdd\u6301\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u95ee\u98981\u30012\u30014\uff08\u517160\u5206\uff09\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0a\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u8d1f\u9762\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u786e\u5b9e\u5e94\u8be5\u8ba9\u4f60\u975e\u5e38\u8c28\u614e\u3002\u95ee\u98983\u548c5\uff0830\u5206\uff09\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u6027\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"some-references\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u4e9b\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Epstein, Joshua M. (2008).'<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk\/11\/4\/12.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u505a\u6a21\u578b\uff1f<\/a>',&nbsp;<em>\u4eba\u5de5\u793e\u4f1a\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6a21\u62df\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff08Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation\uff09\u3002<\/em>&nbsp;11(4)12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Glenn, Jerome C. and The Futures Group International, \"Scenarios,\" \u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.millennium-project.org\/publications-2\/futures-research-methodology-version-3-0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>\u5343\u5e74\u9879\u76ee\u3002\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c3.0\u7248<\/em><\/a>, \uff0c\u6770\u7f57\u59c6\u00b7C\u00b7\u683c\u4f26\u548c\u897f\u5965\u591a\u00b7J\u00b7\u6208\u767b\u7f16\uff0c2009\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c19\u7ae0\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ritchey, Tom\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.swemorph.com\/pdf\/tfsc-pre-gma.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e00\u822c\u5f62\u6001\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd<br> \u57fa\u672c\u79d1\u5b66\u5efa\u6a21\u65b9\u6cd5<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u6280\u672f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a\u53d8\u9769:\u4e00\u822c\u5f62\u6001\u5b66\u5206\u6790\u7279\u520a<\/em>, 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6cf0\u52d2\uff0c\u67e5\u5c14\u65af\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/press.armywarcollege.edu\/monographs\/286\/\"><em>\u56fd\u5bb6\u65b0\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u4e16\u754c\u65b9\u6848<\/em><\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9646\u519b\u6218\u4e89\u5b66\u9662\uff0c1993\u5e74\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u662f\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u51c6\u5907\u672a\u6765\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4ece\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u5230\u901a\u8fc7\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u7cfb\u7edf\u8fdb\u884c\u6218\u7565\u5c55\u671b\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u5730\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u6240\u6709\u9700\u8981\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8a\u91cd\u8981\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/02\/01\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u4f60\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6548\uff1f\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24538,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1510,2860,3237],"tags":[1789],"class_list":["post-24744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-evaluation-analyse","category-featured","category-scenario-building","tag-featured","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/02\/01\/\u4f60\u7684\u573a\u666f\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6548-\u6d4b\u8bd5\u548c\u68c0\u67e5\u6e05\u5355-6\u70b9\u5f0f\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Scenario building, also known as scenario analysis, is a crucial methodology to anticipate and prepare for the future. 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The higher the uncertainty, the more important &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cAre your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid?\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/02\/01\/\u4f60\u7684\u573a\u666f\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6548-\u6d4b\u8bd5\u548c\u68c0\u67e5\u6e05\u5355-6\u70b9\u5f0f\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-02-01T15:45:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-10T16:47:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/diamonds-4040800_1920.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"15 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-02-01T15:45:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-06-10T16:47:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":3230,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/11\\\/diamonds-4040800_1920.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Evaluation\",\"Featured\",\"Methodology of Scenario building\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2021\\\/02\\\/01\\\/are-your-scenarios-valid-test-and-check-list-in-6-points\\\/\",\"name\":\"Are your Strategic Foresight Scenarios Valid? 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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