{"id":25772,"date":"2020-02-24T18:21:02","date_gmt":"2020-02-24T17:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=25772"},"modified":"2022-05-20T10:14:56","modified_gmt":"2022-05-20T08:14:56","slug":"%e8%a1%a8%e8%be%be%e5%92%8c%e7%90%86%e8%a7%a3%e4%bc%b0%e8%ae%a1%e6%80%a7%e8%af%ad%e8%a8%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/24\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8868\u8fbe\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4f30\u8ba1\u6027\u8bed\u8a00"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as &#8220;likely&#8221; and for impacts terms such as &#8220;severe&#8221;. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As explained by Heuer in the case of probability, these are expressions of subjective judgements. As a result, these words are a source of &#8220;ambiguity and misunderstanding&#8221; (Richards J. Jr. Heuer, ,&nbsp;<em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cia.gov\/library\/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence\/csi-publications\/books-and-monographs\/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Psychology of Intelligence Analysis<\/a><\/em>, Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1999: 152).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"members (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">members<\/a> and <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"trainees (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/course-global-risk-analysis-analytical-model\/\" target=\"_blank\">trainees<\/a> can download below a &#8220;cheat sheet&#8221; of these words with their explanations. For probability we provide the correspondence between subjective words and numerical probability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/download\/25773\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25776\" width=\"171\" height=\"243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language.jpg 342w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language-211x300.jpg 211w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/pdf-estimative-language-250x355.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 171px) 100vw, 171px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Click on the image or link to<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/download\/25773\/\"> download<\/a>.<br>(You need to be a member or a trainee to download the file).<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Coverpage image: <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/photos\/dice-chance-gambling-casino-gaming-3095227\/\">Peter Lomas<\/a> via Pixabay [Public Domain]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u5904\u7406\u672a\u6765\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u8bed\u8a00\u5305\u62ec\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5982\u6982\u7387\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u8868\u8fbe\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5728\u6982\u7387\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 \"\u53ef\u80fd \"\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bcd\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5f71\u54cd\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 \"\u4e25\u91cd \"\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u8bcd\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u505a\u5230\u5b8c\u6574\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u6b63\u5982......\u6240\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/24\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u8868\u8fbe\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4f30\u8ba1\u6027\u8bed\u8a00\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24892,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1731,2860],"tags":[1789,156,1224,606,198,1210,2880,2033,123,2331],"class_list":["post-25772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basics","category-featured","tag-featured","tag-future","tag-horizon-scanning","tag-impact","tag-probability","tag-risk","tag-risk-assessment","tag-scenario","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-warning","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/24\/\u8868\u8fbe\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4f30\u8ba1\u6027\u8bed\u8a00\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. In terms of probability, for example, we use words such as &#8220;likely&#8221; and for impacts terms such as &#8220;severe&#8221;. Furthermore, to be truly complete, we should add a confidence judgement. As explained by &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cExpressing and Understanding Estimative Language\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/24\/\u8868\u8fbe\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4f30\u8ba1\u6027\u8bed\u8a00\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-02-24T17:21:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-05-20T08:14:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/dice-3095227-1568.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1569\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-02-24T17:21:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-05-20T08:14:56+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":159,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/12\\\/dice-3095227-1568.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"future\",\"horizon scanning\",\"impact\",\"probability\",\"risk\",\"risk assessment\",\"scenario\",\"strategic foresight\",\"warning\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Definitions and process\",\"Featured\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2020\\\/02\\\/24\\\/expressing-and-understanding-estimative-language\\\/\",\"name\":\"Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language &#8226; 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u8868\u8fbe\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4f30\u7b97\u6027\u8bed\u8a00 \u2022 Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/24\/\u8868\u8fbe\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u4f30\u8ba1\u6027\u8bed\u8a00\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Expressing and Understanding Estimative Language &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"When dealing with the future, we use a language that includes specific notions such as the expression of probability and of impacts. 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