{"id":25940,"date":"2020-03-06T13:24:13","date_gmt":"2020-03-06T12:24:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=25940"},"modified":"2021-10-04T17:20:08","modified_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:20:08","slug":"%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88covid-19%e4%b8%8d%e6%98%af%e4%b8%80%e4%b8%aa%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b9%85%e4%ba%8b%e4%bb%b6%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/03\/06\/why-the-covid-19-is-not-a-black-swan-event\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48COVID-19\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u968f\u7740COVID-19\u5728\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u5176\u8fde\u5e26\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u5728\u52a0\u6df1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6050\u60e7\u8513\u5ef6\u5f00\u6765\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u73b0\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u5ba3\u4f20COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6 \"\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9ad8\u76db\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5176 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u7b2c86\u671f\u300a\u5fc3\u4e4b\u6240\u5411\u300b\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/pages\/top-of-mind\/coronavirus\/report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u5fc3\u7075\u4e4b\u5dc5<\/a>, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/pages\/top-of-mind\/coronavirus\/report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u7b2c86\u671f<\/a> (2020\u5e742\u670828\u65e5\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u9898\u4e3a \"2020\u5e74\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\uff1a\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\"\u3002\u5b83\u662f \"\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u9884\u671f\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\"\u3002\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u8fd9\u4e00\u60f3\u6cd5\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u4f01\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bfb\u5230\uff0c\"\u4e16\u754c\u9876\u7ea7\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8\u4e4b\u4e00\u7684\u7ea2\u6749\u8d44\u672c\u4e8e2020\u5e743\u67086\u65e5\u661f\u671f\u4e94\u5411\u5176\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u548c\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u53d1\u51fa\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u5c06\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a \"2020\u5e74\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u2033\uff0c\u5e76\u6566\u4fc3\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3a\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u51b2\u51fb\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\"\uff08\u8def\u900f\u793e2020\u5e743\u67086\u65e5\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u5173\u4e8e\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/mobile-reuters-com.cdn.ampproject.org\/c\/s\/mobile.reuters.com\/article\/amp\/idUSKBN20S2S5\" target=\"_blank\">\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c06COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e0d\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\u5145\u5176\u91cf\uff0c\u5b83\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u65e0\u77e5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u4f01\u4e1a\u754c\u7684\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u6216\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u8003\u8651\u672a\u6765\u548c\u63d0\u524d\u8ba1\u5212\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48COVID-19\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2007\u5e74\uff0c\"\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6 \"\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u7531\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u63a8\u5e7f <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a> \u7545\u9500\u4e66&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=xDc3AQAACAAJ&amp;dq=the+black+swan&amp;ei=hExfSLaqI4XUjgH3xuyxAw\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\uff1a\u6781\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a><\/em> (\u89c1Helene Lavoix, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u3002\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>Red Team Analysis Society\u3002<\/em>&nbsp;2013\u5e741\u670821\u65e5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/28\/%e6%9c%89%e7%94%a8%e7%9a%84%e8%a7%84%e5%88%99-%e4%bb%8e%e5%a1%94%e5%88%a9%e7%8f%ad%e7%9a%84%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b9%85%e4%b8%ad%e7%9c%8b%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9c%e6%99%af\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6709\u7528\u89c4\u5219<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>Red Team Analysis Society\u3002<\/em>&nbsp;2013\u5e741\u670828\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5854\u96f7\u5fb7\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a \"\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684(<em>\u5f02\u5e38\u503c<\/em>)\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u4e8b\u540e\u88ab\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3a\u53ef\u89e3\u91ca\u548c\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\"\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-circle-mask\"><figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e5%9c%a8%e7%ba%bf%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%92%8c%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e6%9e%84%e5%bb%ba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background.jpeg\" alt=\"\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa, \u60c5\u666f, \u6218\u7565\u8fdc\u89c1, \u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b, \u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406, \u672a\u6765 \" class=\"wp-image-23432\" width=\"259\" height=\"146\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background.jpeg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-500x281.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-16x9.jpeg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-1320x743.jpeg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-250x141.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-1038x584.jpeg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/futureBattle-httpsasc.army_.milwebnews-alt-jas18-future-battlefield-background-300x169.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 259px) 100vw, 259px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong>\u62e5\u62b1\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u9884\u77e5\u548c\u8b66\u544a!<\/strong><br><em>\u9010\u6b65\u5b9e\u8df5\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4f60\u7684\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u5206\u6790\u6280\u80fd\uff0c\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/em> \u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b 1: <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u4ece\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5230\u5206\u6790\u5efa\u6a21\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\">\u4ece\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5230\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b<\/a> - \u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b 2: <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u5173\u4e8e\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u7684\u65b0\u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e5%9c%a8%e7%ba%bf%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%92%8c%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e6%9e%84%e5%bb%ba\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u60c5\u666f\u5efa\u8bbe<\/a> <\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5176\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e00\u8a00\u4ee5\u853d\u4e4b\uff0c\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u4e0e <em>\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45<\/em>&nbsp;\u65a5\u8d23\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u98ce\u9669&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Inductive_reasoning\">\u8bf1\u5bfc<\/a>\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u5efa\u7acb&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/David_Hume\">\u5927\u536b-\u4f11\u8c1f<\/a>&nbsp;\u548c&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Karl_Popper\">\u5361\u5c14-\u6ce2\u666e<\/a>\u6781\u5176\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f52\u7eb3\u63a8\u7406\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a\u6240\u6709\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u5929\u9e45\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6240\u6709\u7684\u5929\u9e45\u90fd\u662f\u767d\u8272\u7684......\u5f53\u53d1\u73b0\u4e00\u53ea\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u662f\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u63a8\u7406\u662f\u5371\u9669\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8ddf\u968f\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\uff0c\"\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45 \"\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u65e2\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u5b83\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u5b83\u3002\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u548c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u6709\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u9884\u89c1COVID-19\u7684\u6d41\u884c\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-circle-mask\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-300x180.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25892\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-16x10.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1038x623.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong>\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u63d0\u4f9b\u5173\u4e8eCOVID-19\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u8bbf\u95ee\/\u514d\u8d39\u6587\u7ae0<\/strong><br><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\">\u6350\u8d60--\u5bf9\u6297COVID-19\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5206\u6790<\/a><br><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4f8b\u5982SARS\u7684\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bda\u7136\uff0c\u540d\u4e3aCOVID-19\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u94fe\u53ef\u80fd\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4f46\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u51fa\u73b0\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u800c\u540c\u4e00\u7c7b\u578b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u4e5f\u662f\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d1\u75c5\u3001\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u5904\u7406\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\">\u5173\u4e8eCOVID-19\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5206\u6790<br>\u9009\u62e9\u9009\u9879<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-circle-mask\"><figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/covid-19-4855709_1920-1412x941.jpg\" alt=\"COVID-19\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\uff0c\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u5a01\u80c1\u9884\u6d4b\" class=\"wp-image-25728\" width=\"259\" height=\"146\"\/><figcaption><strong>\u8003\u8651\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u98ce\u9669<\/strong>: <strong>\u59d4\u6258\u62a5\u544a<\/strong><br>\u6566\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5e02\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5176\u8d22\u52a1\u62ab\u9732\u4e2d\u8003\u8651\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u98ce\u9669(<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/news\/public-statement\/statement-audit-quality-china-2020-02-19\" target=\"_blank\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u76d1\u4f1a\u6566\u4fc3<\/a> ,2\u670819\u65e5\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u82f1\u56fdFRC (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.frc.org.uk\/news\/february-2020-(1)\/frc-advice-to-companies-and-auditors-on-coronaviru\" target=\"_blank\">\u82f1\u56fdFRC<\/a>, 20\u5e742\u670818\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u6240\u6709\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u5e94\u8003\u8651COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u5bf9\u5176\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 <br><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/about-2\/%e8%81%94%e7%b3%bb\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec<\/a> \u7684\u59d4\u6258\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f60\u63d0\u524d\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u5c65\u884c\u4f60\u7684\u4e49\u52a1\u3002\u4e5f\u8bf7\u8054\u7cfb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/dlavoix\/\">- \u6d77\u4f26\u00b7\u5170\u535a\u58eb\uff08Dr Hailun Lan \/ H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix\uff09<\/a> \u76f4\u63a5\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4ece2006\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5bf9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u4e25\u8083\u4eba\u58eb\u5df2\u7ecf\u7528\u4e00\u53e5\u53e3\u5934\u7985\u603b\u7ed3\u4e86\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\"\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u662f\u5982\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f55\u65f6\"\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u62c5\u5fc3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u52aa\u529b\u4e89\u53d6\u5c06\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u53ca\u5176\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u5217\u5165\u5404\u79cd\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5168\u7403\u8bae\u7a0b\u3002\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c1\u8bc1\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u6211\u66fe\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u7cfb\u7edf\u5185\u4e0e\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u5229\u76ca\u5171\u540c\u4f53\u5408\u4f5c\u8fc7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4ece2000\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u5bf9\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\uff08\u5982Ostfeld.\u548cKeesing\uff0c\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u548c\u75be\u75c5\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u83b1\u59c6\u75c5\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/action\/showCitFormats?doi=10.1046%2Fj.1523-1739.2000.99014.x\" target=\"_blank\">\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u548c\u75be\u75c5\u98ce\u9669\uff1a\u83b1\u59c6\u75c5\u7684\u6848\u4f8b<\/a>\", 2000).\u4ece\u90a3\u65f6\u8d77\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u79d1\u5b66\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e86\u89e3\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u662f\uff0c\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u5bf9\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u6709\u79ef\u6781\u548c\u6d88\u6781\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5176\u673a\u5236\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u4e86\u89e3\uff08\u4f8b\u5982Angela D. Luis, et al.<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u7269\u79cd\u591a\u6837\u6027\u901a\u8fc7\u7ade\u4e89\u673a\u5236\u5728\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u60a3\u7684\u5bbf\u4e3b-\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u540c\u65f6\u7a00\u91ca\u548c\u653e\u5927\u4f20\u64ad\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/content\/115\/31\/7979\" target=\"_blank\">\u5728\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u60a3\u7684\u5bbf\u4e3b-\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u7269\u79cd\u591a\u6837\u6027\u901a\u8fc7\u76f8\u4e92\u7ade\u4e89\u7684\u673a\u5236\u540c\u65f6\u7a00\u91ca\u548c\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/a>\u201c, <em>PNAS<\/em>, 2018).\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u5728\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u4ece\u52a8\u7269\u8513\u5ef6\u5230\u4eba\u7c7b\u65b9\u9762\u5177\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8003\u8651\u5230\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u635f\u5931\u7684\u60ca\u4eba\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5584\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u9996\u5148\u5e94\u8be5\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5176\u6b21\uff0c\u9884\u9632\u539f\u5219\u8981\u6c42\u6211\u4eec\u5236\u5b9a\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u5230\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u8003\u8651\u770b\u5230\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u968f\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5728\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e89\u8fa9\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u8bc6\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u505a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\u6765\u9884\u89c1COVID-19\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u6709\u5141\u8bb8\u5904\u7406\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u9014\u5f84\uff1f\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u80fd\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u5de5\u5177\u6765\u9884\u89c1\u65b0\u578b\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u3001\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u3001\u672a\u6765\u4e3b\u4e49\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d--\u6211\u6307\u7684\u662f\u8ba4\u771f\u548c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u8fd0\u7528\u9002\u5f53\u65b9\u6cd5\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4eba--\u6211\u4eec\u786e\u5b9e\u6709\u529e\u6cd5\u5904\u7406\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u610f\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u573a\u666f\u662f\u5904\u7406\u5448\u73b0\u5404\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u65b9\u5f0f\uff08\u5982 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u573a\u666f (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/?s=scenarios\" target=\"_blank\">\u573a\u666f<\/a> \u548c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u8bfe\u7a0b2\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5371\u673a\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e5%9c%a8%e7%ba%bf%e8%af%be%e7%a8%8b-%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%92%8c%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e6%9e%84%e5%bb%ba\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5371\u673a\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa<\/a>\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u90a3\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u6574\u4e2a\u5355\u5143\u4e13\u95e8\u8ba8\u8bba \"\u5929\u9e45 \"\u548c \"\u91ce\u5361 \"\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \"\u91ce\u5361 \"\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5904\u7406\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\uff08James Dewar\uff0c\"\"\u91ce\u5361 \"\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\"\uff0cElina Hiltunen\uff0c\"\u662f\u91ce\u5361\u8fd8\u662f\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6e10\u53d8\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u6027\uff1f\"2006).\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4e00\u79cd\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5f88\u4f4e--\u8003\u8651\u5230\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u8fa9\u8bba\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u5dee\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u89c6\u4e3a\u4e00\u5f20\u91ce\u724c\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\"\u5916\u5361\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6216\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5176\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u5bf9\u4e1a\u52a1\u7684\u5f00\u5c55\u4ea7\u751f\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\" BIPE Conseil \/ \u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6240\/\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3002&nbsp;<em>\u8352\u5510\u5361\u3002\u591a\u56fd\u89c6\u89d2<\/em>\u5728\u300a\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u300b\uff08Institute for the Future\uff0c1992\uff09\uff0c\u7b2cv\u9875\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u540e\u6765\u5728\u7ea6\u7ff0-L-\u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u90a3\u91cc\u5f97\u5230\u666e\u53ca\u3002&nbsp;<em>\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u72c2\u91ce\u7684\u5361\u7247\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u7684\u60ca\u559c<\/em>\u963f\u7075\u987f\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff0c1997\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c2\u7248\uff0cLanham: Madison Books, 1999\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u5728\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u9884\u89c1\u5230COVID-19\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8003\u8651\u5176\u4f59\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u76ee\u524d\u7684COVID-19\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u662f\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u754c\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u754c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u8ba4\u771f\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u5929\u3001\u4e00\u5468\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u662f\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u5f53\u4ed6\u4eec\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u88ab\u91cf\u5316\u5de5\u5177\u6240\u8499\u853d\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u5df2\u7ecf\u8c34\u8d23\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e5f\u5f88\u5355\u4e00\u3002\u603b\u7684\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u62db\u8058\u662f\u7531\u90a3\u4e9b\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5904\u7406\u8fd9\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\u7684\u4eba\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u3002\u62db\u8058\u4eba\u5458\u4f18\u5148\u8003\u8651\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u6280\u80fd\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u548c\u6807\u51c6\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5b9a\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u77e5\u8bc6\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u88ab\u629b\u5f03\u4e86\u3002\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u90e8\u95e8\uff0c\u88d9\u5e26\u5173\u7cfb\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u5bb3\u6015\u4e0d\u8ba8\u597d\u4e0a\u7ea7\u6216 \"\u5e02\u573a \"\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4e00\u53a2\u60c5\u613f\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u81ea\u6211\uff0c\u963b\u6b62\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6210\u529f\u4eba\u7fa4\u6b63\u786e\u548c\u8bda\u5b9e\u5730\u8003\u8651\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e0d\uff0cCOVID-19\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e48\u60f3\u53ea\u4f1a\u8ba9\u90a3\u4e9b\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u516c\u53f8\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9519\u8bef\u627f\u62c5\u4efb\u4f55\u8d23\u4efb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0cCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u662f\u5426\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6218\u7565\u4e0a\u7684\u60ca\u559c\u548c\u8b66\u544a\u5931\u8d25\uff1f\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7684\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c26\u865a\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u6ca1\u6709\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6ca1\u6709\u5efa\u7acb\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u7cfb\u7edf\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u5b83\u3002\u800c\u4e14\uff0c\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u5e78\u8fd0\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u75c5\u4f8b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u867d\u7136\u8fdc\u8fdc\u9ad8\u4e8e\u6d41\u611f\uff0c\u4f46\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ecd\u7136\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\uff08\u89c1WHO\u548cWTO\uff09\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/05\/%e6%96%b0%e5%9e%8b%e5%86%a0%e7%8a%b6%e7%97%85%e6%af%92-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/\">\u65b0\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2COVID-19\uff08ex 2019-nCoV\uff09\u4e4b\u8c1c - \u4e8b\u5b9e\u6838\u67e5<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u627f\u8ba4\u9519\u8bef\u548c\u5931\u8bef\u662f\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9014\u5f84\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u505a\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u9014\u5f84\uff0c\u5f53\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e66\u76ee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">BIPE Conseil \/ \u54e5\u672c\u54c8\u6839\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6240\/\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u3002&nbsp;<em>\u8352\u5510\u5361\u3002\u591a\u56fd\u89c6\u89d2<\/em>\uff0c\uff08\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff0c1992\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u7b2cv\u9875\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dewar, James A., \"The Importance of \"Wild Card\" Scenarios\", Discussion Paper, RAND.-&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%b8%8b%e8%bd%bd\/24910\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e0b\u8f7dpdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hiltunen, Elina, \"\u662f\u91ce\u86ee\u751f\u957f\u8fd8\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6e10\u53d8\u7684\u76f2\u76ee\u6027\uff1f\"&nbsp;<em>\u672a\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em>, Vol. 11, No. 2, November 2006, pp. 61-74<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lavoix, Helene, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u3002\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>Red Team Analysis Society\u3002<\/em>&nbsp;2013\u5e741\u670821\u65e5<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lavoix, Helene, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/28\/%e6%9c%89%e7%94%a8%e7%9a%84%e8%a7%84%e5%88%99-%e4%bb%8e%e5%a1%94%e5%88%a9%e7%8f%ad%e7%9a%84%e9%bb%91%e5%a4%a9%e9%b9%85%e4%b8%ad%e7%9c%8b%e5%88%b0%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%9c%e6%99%af\/\">\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u300a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u300b\u4e2d\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u6709\u7528\u89c4\u5219<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>Red Team Analysis Society\u3002<\/em>&nbsp;2013\u5e741\u670828\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Luis, Angela D., Amy J. Kuenzi, James N. Mills.\"\u7269\u79cd\u591a\u6837\u6027\u901a\u8fc7\u7ade\u4e89\u673a\u5236\u5728\u4eba\u755c\u5171\u60a3\u7684\u5bbf\u4e3b-\u75c5\u539f\u4f53\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u540c\u65f6\u7a00\u91ca\u548c\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u4f20\u64ad\u3002&nbsp;<em>\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u9662\u9662\u520a<\/em>, 2018; 201807106 doi:&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.1807106115\" target=\"_blank\">10.1073\/pnas.1807106115<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ostfeld, R.S. and Keesing, F. (2000), Biodiversity and Disease Risk: the Case of Lyme Disease.Conservation Biology, 14: 722-728. doi:<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2000.99014.x\">10.1046\/j.1523-1739.2000.99014.x<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Petersen, John L., <em>\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u72c2\u91ce\u7684\u5361\u7247\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u7684\u60ca\u559c<\/em>\u963f\u7075\u987f\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff0c1997\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c2\u7248\uff0cLanham: Madison Books, 1999\u5e74\uff09\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u968f\u7740COVID-19\u5728\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u5176\u8fde\u5e26\u7684\u591a\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e5f\u5728\u52a0\u6df1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6050\u60e7\u8513\u5ef6\u5f00\u6765\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u516c\u53f8\u73b0\u5728\u5f00\u59cb\u5ba3\u4f20COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6 \"\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u9ad8\u76db\u516c\u53f8\u5728\u5176\u7b2c86\u671f\uff082020\u5e742\u670828\u65e5\uff09\u7684Top of Mind\u4e2d\uff0c\u520a\u767b\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u9898\u4e3a ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/03\/06\/why-the-covid-19-is-not-a-black-swan-event\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48COVID-19\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25942,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2903,1731,2457],"tags":[1466,1789,2560,885],"class_list":["post-25940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-covid19-scenarios","category-basics","category-geopolitics-uncertainty-and-business","tag-black-swan","tag-featured","tag-open-access","tag-surprise","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why the COVID-19 is NOT a Black Swan Event &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/03\/06\/\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48covid-19\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff1f\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the COVID-19 is NOT a Black Swan Event &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As the COVID-19 spreads throughout the world, its cascading and multiple impacts deepen. 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