{"id":26031,"date":"2020-03-13T17:48:09","date_gmt":"2020-03-13T16:48:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=26031"},"modified":"2021-11-16T13:04:59","modified_gmt":"2021-11-16T12:04:59","slug":"covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u57fa\u7ebf\u65b9\u6848"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3\u670811\u65e5\uff0c\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0cSARS-CoV-2--COV-19\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2--\u53ef\u80fd\u611f\u67d3\u5fb7\u56fd60\u81f370%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff08DW, \"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u683c\u62c9-\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u6566\u4fc3 &quot;\u56e2\u7ed3\u548c\u7406\u667a&quot;\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/coronavirus-germanys-angela-merkel-urges-solidarity-and-reason\/a-52719086\" target=\"_blank\">\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u683c\u62c9-\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u6566\u4fc3 \"\u56e2\u7ed3\u548c\u7406\u6027<\/a>'\"\uff0c2020\u5e743\u670811\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u5979\u88ab\u6307\u63a7\u6563\u5e03\u6050\u614c\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u5fb7\u56fd\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/12\/24\/omicron-variant-the-good-the-bad-and-the-intriguing-update-warning\/\">\u6b27\u7c73\u8304\u53d8\u4f53--\"\u597d\u7684\u3001\u574f\u7684\u548c'\u8010\u4eba\u5bfb\u5473'\u7684\" --\u8b66\u544a<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/12\/18\/omicron-variant-major-imminent-threat-warning\/\">\u6b27\u7c73\u8304\u53d8\u4f53--\"\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u3001\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b\u7684\u5a01\u80c1 \"\u8b66\u544a<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/12\/07\/long-covid-and-the-fifth-wave-three-scenarios\/\">\u957f\u7ebfCOVID\u548c\u7b2c\u4e94\u6ce2--\u4e09\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/11\/22\/long-covid-and-the-fifth-wave-the-hidden-pandemic\/\">Long COVID\u548c\u7b2c\u4e94\u6ce2--\u9690\u85cf\u7684\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/11\/09\/the-fifth-wave-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-lethality\/\">\u7b2c\u4e94\u6ce2COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u548c\u81f4\u6b7b\u7387<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/10\/27\/towards-a-covid-19-fifth-wave\/\">\u8fc8\u5411Covid-19\u7b2c\u4e94\u6ce2<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/03\/16\/losing-texas-to-climate-change-and-covid-19\/\">\u56e0\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548cCOVID-19\u800c\u5931\u53bb\u5fb7\u5dde\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/02\/15\/china-health-silk-road-vaccines-and-security\/\">\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u75ab\u82d7\u7684 \"\u5065\u5eb7\u4e1d\u7ef8\u4e4b\u8def \"\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/01\/27\/covid-19-vaccinations-hope-or-mirage\/\">COVID-19 \u75ab\u82d7\u63a5\u79cd\uff0c\u662f\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd8\u662f\u5e7b\u89c9\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u5982\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\uff0c\u50cfCOVD-19\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u662f\u5f88\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u57fa\u7ebf\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u8bc4\u4f30\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u5371\u9669\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u79cd\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u8bf8\u5982\u5b8c\u5168\u5c01\u9501\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4e25\u5389\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u662f\u5b9e\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5bf9\u751f\u547d\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u4f7f\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u5173\u5207\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea\u4ece\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5f00\u59cb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4ecd\u5728\u7206\u53d1\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u8bc4\u8bba\u5bb6\u4e00\u76f4\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7a0b\u5ea6\u964d\u5230\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u5f97\u5230\u7406\u6027\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u627f\u8ba4\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u9002\u5f53\u6982\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u542c\u5230\u548c\u8bfb\u5230\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u548c\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u90fd\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\uff0c\u5c3d\u91cf\u51cf\u5c11\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u628a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u7ecf\u5e38\u5632\u7b11\u522b\u4eba\u3002\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u662f\u6e90\u4e8e\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u8bb8\u591a\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u7684\u504f\u89c1\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/12\/%e5%86%a0%e7%8a%b6%e7%97%85%e6%af%92-%e7%a7%91%e7%bb%b4%e5%be%b7-19-%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e7%88%86%e5%8f%91-%e4%b8%8d%e4%bb%85%e4%bb%85%e6%98%af%e6%96%b0%e7%97%85%e6%af%92%e7%9a%84%e9%97%ae%e9%a2%98\/\">\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2COVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u7206\u53d1\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u4e00\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2<\/a> \u548c <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/05\/%e6%96%b0%e5%9e%8b%e5%86%a0%e7%8a%b6%e7%97%85%e6%af%92-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/\">\u65b0\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2COVID-19\u4e4b\u8c1c--\u4e8b\u5b9e\u67e5\u8bc1<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-circle-mask\"><figure class=\"alignright size-medium\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"180\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-300x180.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25892\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-300x180.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-16x10.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/COVID19-USCDC-1038x623.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><strong>\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u63d0\u4f9b\u5173\u4e8eCOVID-19\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u8bbf\u95ee\/\u514d\u8d39\u6587\u7ae0<\/strong><br><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\">\u6350\u8d60--\u5bf9\u6297COVID-19\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5206\u6790<\/a><br><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u4f7f\u547d\u662f\u786e\u4fdd\u5176\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u7684\u5b89\u5168\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/28\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af-%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%ef%bc%9f\/\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\uff1f<\/a>).\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e2a\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u751f\u5b58\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u751f\u547d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5982\u75c5\u6bd2\u53ca\u5176\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u75be\u75c5\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u65f6\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u5730\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u9879\u90fd\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5bf9\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u4e25\u91cd\u6027\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u6240\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u548c\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u8981\u5728\u4e2a\u4eba\u548c\u96c6\u4f53\u5c42\u9762\u8bc4\u4f30\u5bf9\u751f\u547d\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u76f4\u63a5\u5a01\u80c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5982\u4f55\u8bc4\u4f30\u5bf9\u751f\u547d\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u76f4\u63a5\u5a01\u80c1\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u8c28\u614e\u5bf9\u5f85\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6240\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531\u4e8e\u8be5\u75c5\u6bd2\u662f\u65b0\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6b63\u5982\u6240\u6709\u5904\u7406SARS-CoV-2\u548cCOVID-19\u7684\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u6c38\u4e45\u5730\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u5bf9\u8be5\u75c5\u6bd2\u548c\u8be5\u75be\u75c5\u4ecd\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u672a\u77e5\u6570\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/donation-fund-analysis-in-war-against-covid-19\/\">\u5173\u4e8eCOVID-19\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5206\u6790<br>\u9009\u62e9\u9009\u9879<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8be5\u75be\u75c5\u53ca\u5176\u4f20\u64ad\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u5927\u591a\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u5904\u7406\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5173\u4e8e\u75c5\u6bd2\u548c\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u5143\u7d20\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5143\u7d20\u53ef\u4ee5\u666e\u904d\u9002\u7528\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u7279\u6b8a\u6027\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u5fd8\u8bb0\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\uff08\u89c1\u56fe1\uff09\u3002<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e16\u536b\u7ec4\u7ec7-\u4e2d\u56fd2019\u5e74\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u75be\u75c5\u8054\u5408\u8003\u5bdf\u56e2\u7684\u62a5\u544a\uff08COVID-19\uff09<\/a> - 2020\u5e742\u670816\u65e5\u81f324\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u624b\u6bb5\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u75be\u75c5\u7684 \"\u884c\u4e3a \"\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u75c5\u6bd2\u672c\u8eab\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u9879\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5510\u6653\u9732\u3001\u5434\u957f\u57ce\u7b49\u4eba\u5728\u7814\u7a76SARS-CoV-2\u7684\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4\u65f6\u53d1\u73b0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"......\u8fd9\u4e9b\u75c5\u6bd2\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7c7b\u578b\uff08\u6307\u5b9a\u4e3aL\u578b\u548cS\u578b\uff09......\u800cL\u578b\u5728\u6b66\u6c49\u7206\u53d1\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9636\u6bb5\u66f4\u666e\u904d\uff0c2020\u5e741\u6708\u521d\u540eL\u578b\u7684\u9891\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5e72\u9884\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed9L\u578b\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u66f4\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u538b\u529b\uff0cL\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5177\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u66f4\u5feb\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9009\u62e9\u538b\u529b\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f31\uff0c\u5728\u8fdb\u5316\u4e0a\u66f4\u53e4\u8001\u3001\u653b\u51fb\u6027\u66f4\u5f31\u7684S\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u76f8\u5bf9\u9891\u7387\u4e0a\u6709\u6240\u589e\u52a0\"\u3002<\/p><cite>\u5510\u6653\u7490\u3001\u5434\u957f\u57ce\u3001\u674e\u7fd4\u3001\u5b8b\u7389\u548c\u3001\u59da\u65b0\u6c11\u3001\u5434\u65b0\u51ef\u3001\u6bb5\u5143\u683c\u3001\u5f20\u5b8f\u3001\u738b\u4e00\u8363\u3001\u94b1\u671d\u6656\u3001\u5d14\u6770\u3001\u9646\u5efa\u3001\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/nsr\/advance-article\/doi\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwaa036\/5775463\" target=\"_blank\">\u8bbaSARS-CoV-2\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u6f14\u53d8<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>\u56fd\u5bb6\u79d1\u5b66\u8bc4\u8bba<\/em>\uff0c2020\u5e743\u67083\u65e5\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwaa036\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/nsr\/nwaa036<\/a> <\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u628a \"\u4e2d\u56fd \"\u7684\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7528\u4e8e\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u65f6\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\u5fc3\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u52aa\u529b\u533a\u5206\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u7406\u89e3\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u79d1\u5b66\u754c\u5e76\u4e0d\u964c\u751f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7ea6\u7ff0-\u65af\u56fe\u4e9a\u7279-\u7c73\u5c14\u65af\uff08John Stuart Mills\uff09\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5c31\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u6bd4\u8f83\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u903b\u8f91\u7cfb\u7edf (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gutenberg.org\/files\/27942\/27942-h\/27942-h.html\" target=\"_blank\"><em>A<\/em> <em>\u903b\u8f91\u7cfb\u7edf<\/em><\/a>&nbsp;(1843\u5e74)\u7684\u534f\u8bae\u6cd5\u3001\u5dee\u5f02\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u7ec4\u5408(\u5982 <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/Mills-methods\" target=\"_blank\">\u5927\u82f1\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\u300b(Encyclopaedia Britannica)<\/a><\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u57fa\u7ebf \"\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5 \"\u8bbe\u60f3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u4e00\u4e2a\u5305\u542b\u8bb8\u591a\u672a\u77e5\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u4e24\u4e2a\u534a\u6708\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u987a\u4fbf\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ece\u79d1\u5b66\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d85\u77ed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u5728\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u75be\u75c5\u8513\u5ef6\u53ef\u80fd\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u707e\u96be\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u707e\u96be\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u610f\u601d\u5462\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u79d1\u5b66\u4ea4\u6d41\u548c\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u6cbb\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u65f6\u5019\u90fd\u56de\u907f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7edd\u5bf9\u6570\u5b57\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5bb3\u6015\u9020\u6210\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u51fa\u4e8e\u8c26\u865a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u771f\u6b63\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u4e8e\u7126\u8651\uff0c\u62c5\u5fc3\u4ee5\u540e\u88ab\u5f53\u4f5c\u9519\u8bef\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u771f\u7684\u5f88\u96be\u7406\u89e3\u8fd9\u79cd\u5a01\u80c1\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e86\u89e3\u6211\u4eec\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5a01\u80c1\u5fc5\u987b\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u57fa\u7ebf\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u5bf9\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u547d\u4ee3\u4ef7\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5bf9COVID-19\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u4f30\u8ba1<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u57fa\u7ebf\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6570\u5b57\uff0c\u5373\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u505a\u4efb\u4f55\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u505a\u5f88\u591a\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u57fa\u7ebf\u5c06\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5404\u4e2a\u5f53\u5c40\u90fd\u5728\u4e0e\u8be5\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4f5c\u6597\u4e89\u3002\u5b83\u5c06\u8868\u660e\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8868\u660e\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u6b64\u8ddf\u968f\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f0a-M-\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\"\u901a\u8fc7\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u7f13\u89e3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5927\u7ea6\u662f1-1\/R<sub>0<\/sub>.\u201d<\/p><cite>Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T D\u00e9irdre Hollingsworth,\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u57fa\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7f13\u89e3\u63aa\u65bd\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cdCOVID-19\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff1f(\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5\/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\">\u57fa\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7f13\u89e3\u63aa\u65bd\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cdCOVID-19\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff1f<\/a>\u201d - <em>\u67f3\u53f6\u5200\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/em> - 2020\u5e743\u67089\u65e5\u5728\u7ebf\u53d1\u8868<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u5982\u6211\u4eec <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u89e3\u91ca\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/05\/%e6%96%b0%e5%9e%8b%e5%86%a0%e7%8a%b6%e7%97%85%e6%af%92-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u89e3\u91ca<\/a>, <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> (R-nought)\u6216&nbsp;<strong>\u57fa\u672c\u590d\u5236\u53f7<\/strong>&nbsp;\u4e00\u79cd\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u9884\u671f\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8861\u91cf\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86 \"\u5728\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u65e9\u671f\u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u5178\u578b\u7684\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u4e2a\u4f53\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4e8c\u7ea7\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u91cf\"\uff08O Diekmann\uff1bJ.A.P. Heesterbeek\u548cJ.A.J. Metz\uff081990\uff09\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/BF00178324\">\"\u8bba\u5f02\u8d28\u79cd\u7fa4\u4e2d\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u57fa\u672c\u7e41\u6b96\u7387R0\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\"<\/a>,&nbsp;<em>\u6570\u5b66\u751f\u7269\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff08Journal of Mathematical Biology<\/em>&nbsp;28: 356-382).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u5bf9SARS-CoV-2\u53ef\u80fd\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u5fb7\u56fd\u4eba\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u6709\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027 <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> \u4e3aCOVID-19\u3002\u8be5 <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> \u4f30\u8ba1\u57281.6\u548c3.8\u4e4b\u95f4\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/02\/05\/%e6%96%b0%e5%9e%8b%e5%86%a0%e7%8a%b6%e7%97%85%e6%af%92-2019-ncov-mystery-fact-checking\/\">\u65b0\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2COVID-19\u4e4b\u8c1c--\u4e8b\u5b9e\u67e5\u8bc1<\/a>).\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u5728 <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> \u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u800c\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u4e00\u4e2a\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u5b89\u5fb7\u68ee\u7b49\u4eba\u4f7f\u7528\u4e00\u4e2a <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> \u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u4f30\u8ba1=2.6\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e61.54%\uff0c\u5728\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u7ed9\u51fa\u768460%\u523070%\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f7f\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u57fa\u7ebf\u60c5\u666f\u8868\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4eba\u53e3\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a77\u4ebf\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table alignwide is-style-stripes\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\n<em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>1,6<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>2,2<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>2,6<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<strong>3,8<\/strong>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684%\u30021-1\/R<sub>0<\/sub><\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">37,50 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">54,54 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">61,54 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">73,68 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n<br>\n<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387<\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n0,3 %\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n0,3 %\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">0,3 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n0,3 %\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">1 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">2,2 % <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">3,18 % <\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u53e3\uff08\u4ee5\u767e\u4e07\u8ba1<\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n2887,5\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n4200,0\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n4738,5\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">  <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n5673,7\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\"> <\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>\u4f30\u8ba1\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u4e3a\u767e\u4e07<\/strong> <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">8,7 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">28,9 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n63,5\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">\n91,8\n<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">12,6 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">42,0 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">92,4 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">133,6 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">14,2 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">47,4 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">104,2 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">150,7 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">17,0 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">56,7 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">124,8 <\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-right\" data-align=\"right\">180,4 <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5bf9SARS-CoV-2\u7684\u5df2\u77e5\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5e76\u4f30\u8ba1\u52302020\u5e743\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u9762\u5bf9\u5168\u4e16\u754c870\u4e07\u81f31.804\u4ebf\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u91cc\u5fc5\u987b\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u76f4\u63a5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684\u60b2\u60e8\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u75c5\u4f8b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u8981\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u57282020\u5e743\u670812\u65e5\u8fbe\u5230\u60ca\u4eba\u76846.7%\u3002Pr.Ricciardi\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u610f\u5927\u5229\u7684CFR\u9ad8\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4ece\u5efa\u7acb\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5230\u4e0d\u582a\u91cd\u8d1f\u7684\u533b\u9662\u5bf9\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd( <em>\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.startmag.it\/mondo\/coronavirus-ricciardi-oms\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u3001\u4f20\u67d3\u75c5\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1a\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002Parla Ricciardi (Oms-Salute)<\/a>\"<\/em>).\u540e\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u95f4\u63a5\u7684\u548c\u8fde\u5e26\u7684--\u4f46\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u771f\u5b9e\u7684--\u6b7b\u4ea1\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e2d\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-large is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1404\" height=\"820\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-26017\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate.jpg 1404w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-300x175.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-768x449.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-1320x771.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-250x146.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate-1038x606.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1404px) 100vw, 1404px\" \/><figcaption>COVID-19\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u57fa\u7ebf\u539f\u6cb9\u4f30\u8ba1 - <br>\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570 - \u524d\u56db\u680f\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002 <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> =\u52301.6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53d7\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u53e3\u768437.5%\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u56db\u5230\u4f30\u8ba1\u4e3a\u4e00 <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> =\u52302.2\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u53e3\u768454.54%%\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002- \u5728\u6bcf\u7ec4\u56db\u5217\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5217\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u662fCFR=0.3%\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5217\u662fCFR=1%\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u662fCRF=2,2%\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u662fCFR=3,8%\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u8003\u8651\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u57287000\u4e07\u81f38500\u4e07\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5728\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0cCOVID-19\u7684\u81f4\u547d\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5176\u4e24\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740160\u4e07\u52303240\u4e07\u4e4b\u95f4\uff1b\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u774040\u4e07\u5230760\u4e07\u4e4b\u95f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5047\u8bbe\u4e2d\u56fd\u786e\u5b9e\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u5168\u514b\u670d\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u6210\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u730e\u7269\u65f6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u518d\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u73b0\u5728\u5168\u7403\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5c31\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u57fa\u7ebf\u5a01\u80c1\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\u786e\u5b9e\u53ea\u662f\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u6240\u505a\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u5b83\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u8981\u8ba4\u771f\u5bf9\u5f85\u8fd9\u4e00\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u800c\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c13.8%\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709 <strong>\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u75be\u75c5 <\/strong>\u548c6.1%\uff0c\u5c06\u5728 <strong>\u5173\u952e <\/strong>\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u8003\u8651\u5728\u5185(<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e16\u536b\u7ec4\u7ec7-\u4e2d\u56fd2019\u5e74\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u75be\u75c5\u8054\u5408\u8003\u5bdf\u56e2\u7684\u62a5\u544a\uff08COVID-19\uff09<\/a> - 2020\u5e742\u670816\u65e5\u81f324\u65e5\uff0c\u7b2c12\u9875\uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a <em>R<\/em><sub>0<\/sub> = 2.6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c61.5 %\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u52a8\uff0c6.539\u4ebf\u4eba\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u98ce\u9669\uff0c2.89\u4ebf\u4eba\u5c06\u5904\u4e8e\u5371\u9669\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7c97\u7565\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u53d1\u73b0\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\uff082020\u5e743\u670813\u65e5\u4e3a80945\u4f8b\uff09\u548c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\uff083180\u4eba\uff09\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u60ca\u4eba\u5dee\u5f02\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5de8\u5927\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u6210\u529f\u7684\u8d5e\u626c\uff08\u4e16\u536b\u7ec4\u7ec7\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cc\u91cd\u7684\u8b66\u544a\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u5b57\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u6570\u5b57\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u4f30\u8ba1\u53ea\u4e0d\u8fc7\u662f\u5bf9\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5371\u9669\u7684\u7c97\u7565\u8bc4\u4f30\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u6570\u5b57\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u6570\u5b57\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5fc5\u987b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002John Hopkins CSSE\u3002&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\" target=\"_blank\">\u5b9e\u65f6\u8ddf\u8e2aCOVID-19\uff08ex 2019-nCoV\uff09\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u60c5\u51b5<\/a>&nbsp;- \u5730\u56fe\u4e3a2020\u5e743\u670813\u65e5 - 17:43 CET\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u7b80\u77ed\u7684\u6458\u8981\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"schema-faq wp-block-yoast-faq-block\"><div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1585750523488\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u4e3aCOVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u521b\u9020\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff1f<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u79d1\u5b66\u6d4b\u91cf\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6570\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4e86\u89e3\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u51b3\u5b9a\u7b54\u6848\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3002<\/p> <\/div> <div class=\"schema-faq-section\" id=\"faq-question-1585750546150\"><strong class=\"schema-faq-question\">\u7531COVID-19\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/strong> <p class=\"schema-faq-answer\">\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5bf9SARS-CoV-2\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u52302020\u5e743\u670812\u65e5\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u9762\u5bf9870\u4e07\u52301.804\u4ebf\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<br\/>\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740COVID-19\u7684\u6740\u4f24\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e8c\u6218\u65f6\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/World-worst-case-crude-estimate.jpg\"\/><\/p> <\/div> <\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>3\u670811\u65e5\uff0c\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0cSARS-CoV-2--COV-19\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2--\u53ef\u80fd\u611f\u67d3\u5fb7\u56fd60\u81f370%\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\uff08DW\uff0c\"\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2\u3002\u5fb7\u56fd\u7684\u5b89\u683c\u62c9-\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u6566\u4fc3 \"\u56e2\u7ed3\u548c\u7406\u6027\"\uff0c2020\u5e743\u670811\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u5979\u88ab\u6307\u63a7\u6563\u5e03\u6050\u614c\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u9ed8\u514b\u5c14\u603b\u7406\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u5fb7\u56fd\u4eba\u975e\u5e38\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"COVID-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u6700\u574f\u60c5\u51b5\u57fa\u7ebf\u65b9\u6848\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26037,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2497,2903,3247],"tags":[3240,3239],"class_list":["post-26031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-china","category-covid19-scenarios","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","tag-baseline-scenario","tag-worst-case-scenario","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Here we assess the magnitude 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. 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We can use estimates of scientific measurements to assess worst cases for the COVID-19 pandemic. This is actually necessary to know the extent of the threat, the risk and thus decide about the magnitude of the answers.","inLanguage":"zh-Hans"},"inLanguage":"zh-Hans"},{"@type":"Question","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585750546150","position":2,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2020\/03\/13\/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios\/#faq-question-1585750546150","name":"\u7531COVID-19\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f","answerCount":1,"acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Worldwide, at worst, considering what is known of the SARS-CoV-2 and estimated by 12 March 2020, assuming no action had been taken, we could have had to face between 8.7 and 180.4 million direct deaths.<br\/>This means the COVID-19 could have been more than twice as deadly as World War II.","inLanguage":"zh-Hans"},"inLanguage":"zh-Hans"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/pandemic-cov-19-13-March-2020.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26031\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26037"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}