{"id":2607,"date":"2019-03-04T09:00:21","date_gmt":"2019-03-04T08:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=2607"},"modified":"2025-03-06T11:31:25","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T10:31:25","slug":"horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u76d1\u6d4b\uff1a\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(\u91cd\u5199\u548c\u4fee\u8ba2\u7248)<\/em> \u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u672a\u6765\u4e3b\u4e49\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u6d3b\u52a8\u90fd\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u7528\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u6d3b\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u5219\u975e\u5e38\u5177\u4f53\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u3002\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u672f\u8bed\u3002\u5b83\u65e2\u6307\u6218\u7565\u5c55\u671b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e5f\u6307\u6574\u4e2a\u5c55\u671b\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.crn.ethz.ch\/publications\/crn_team\/detail.cfm?id=96084\" target=\"_blank\">(Habbeger, 2009<\/a>).* <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u91cd\u70b9\u8ba8\u8bba\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6574\u4e2a\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u4f53\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u628a\u5b83\u4e0e\u9884\u8b66\u76d1\u6d4b\uff08\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0\u76d1\u6d4b\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u6bd4\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u63d0\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\u548c\u5dee\u5f02\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u786e\u5b9a\u6700\u4f73\u505a\u6cd5\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\uff0c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4efb\u4f55-\u597d\u7684-\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u5141\u8bb8\u8bc6\u522b\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u65b0\u4e3b\u9898\u6216\u5143\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u6211\u4eec\u8bae\u7a0b\u6216\u80cc\u666f\u4e2d\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u5173\u5207\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u5165\u5206\u6790\u7531\u6b64\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u5b81\u5bfb\u627e\u8868\u660e\u65b0\u7684\u5143\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5fae\u5f31\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u626b\u63cf\u5fc5\u987b\u5bf9\u6240\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u95ee\u9898\u91c7\u53d6\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/Radar-artefacts_filtered.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"572\" height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/Radar-artefacts_filtered-e1460640342176.png\" alt=\"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\uff0c\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u76d1\u6d4b\uff0c\u60c5\u62a5\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e3b\u4e49\" class=\"wp-image-2612\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/Radar-artefacts_filtered-e1460640342176.png 572w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/Radar-artefacts_filtered-e1460640342176-250x210.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/Radar-artefacts_filtered-e1460640342176-300x252.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 572px) 100vw, 572px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\uff08\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u73af\u5883\u90e8\uff09\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u5929\u6c14\u56de\u58f0\u7684\u975e\u6c14\u8c61\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u4f7f\u7528\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u591a\u666e\u52d2\u901f\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u8fc7\u6ee4\u3002\u5728\u6e05\u6d17\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u53ea\u7559\u4e0b\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u8f83\u65e9\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u5982 \"\u73af\u5883scanning\"\u3001\"\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1 \"\u548c \"\u6307\u793a\u548c\u8b66\u544a\"\uff08\u4e5f\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \"\u6218\u7565\u8b66\u544a \"\u548c \"\u8b66\u544a\u60c5\u62a5\"\uff0c\u89c1\u4e0b\u6587\uff09\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Grabo (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ni-u.edu\/ni_press\/pdf\/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u683c\u62c9\u535a<\/a>, 2004).\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6b63\u5982Glenn\u548cGordon\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\uff0c\u57281960-1970\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u672a\u6765\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\"'\u73af\u5883\u626b\u63cf'\u8fd9\u4e2a\u672f\u8bed\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u73af\u5883\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8bcd\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u6307\u76d1\u6d4b\u81ea\u7136\u73af\u5883\u56e0\u4eba\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002  \u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u8fd9\u79cd\u6df7\u6dc6\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5b66\u5bb6\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u6807\u7b7e\uff0c\u5982 \"\u672a\u6765\u626b\u63cf\u7cfb\u7edf\"\u3001\"\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u7cfb\u7edf \"\u548c \"\u672a\u6765\u60c5\u62a5\u7cfb\u7edf\"\u3002\u519b\u65b9\u5219\u4f7f\u7528 \"\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66 \"\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u672f\u8bed\u3002\u5176\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u6218\u7565\u4e0a\u7684\u610f\u5916\uff08\u5982\u73cd\u73e0\u6e2f\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u82f1\u6587 \"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\"\u4e0e\u6cd5\u6587\"\"\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002<em>veille\"<\/em>\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u65ad\u8a00\u76f8\u53cd--\u4f8b\u5982\u5c3c\u53e4\u62c9-\u5361\u96f7\u65af\u7279\uff08\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dictionnaire.enap.ca\/Dictionnaire\/19\/Index_par_thematique.enap?&amp;by=them&amp;id=37&amp;lng=en\" target=\"_blank\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf<\/a>\" 2012\u5e74\u548c <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"pdf (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dictionnaire.enap.ca\/dictionnaire\/docs\/definitions\/definitions_anglais\/horizon_scanning.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">pdf<\/a>).\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\"\"\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210\u6700\u597d\u7684\u3002<em>\u7ef4\u8036\u5c14<\/em>\"\u7531 \"\u76d1\u6d4b\"--\u6cdb\u6307\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u50cf\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e00\u6837\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u5730\u7528\u4e8e\u8b66\u544a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u5b83\u7ffb\u8bd1\u6210 \"\u60c5\u62a5\u6536\u96c6\"\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Charest\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\"\u4e00\u4e2a\u6536\u96c6\u3001\u5206\u6790\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u589e\u503c\u4fe1\u606f\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u6709\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u8fc7\u7a0b\"\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6ca1\u6709\u672a\u6765\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5947\u602a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u542b\u4e49\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u3001\u9884\u671f\u6027\u3002  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0e\u5176\u5c06 \"veille \"\u548c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u505a\u6cd5\u548c\u4e24\u4e2a\u8bcd\u6df7\u4e3a\u4e00\u8c08\uff0c\u4e0d\u5982\u5c06\u4e24\u8005\u533a\u5206\u5f00\u6765\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u6d3b\u52a8\u5bc6\u5207\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u79cd\uff0c\u5373\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscan\u5b81\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u5904\u7406\u672a\u6765\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u800c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5219\u4e0d\u5fc5\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6311\u6218\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u662f\u8fd9\u79cd\u9884\u671f\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u7528Grabo\u7684\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\"\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4f5c\u51fa\u5224\u65ad \"\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\uff0c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e24\u79cd\u76f8\u5173\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u672c\u8d28\u533a\u522b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u653f\u5e9c\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\u7684\u540d\u79f0\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528 \"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\"\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u666e\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e00\u540d\u79f0\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u82f1\u56fd <em>\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u4e2d\u5fc3\u3002<\/em> 2004 \u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u547c\u5401\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u4e2d\u53d1\u5c55\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u5353\u8d8a\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u521b\u5efa\u4e86 \"\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u5353\u8d8a\u4e2d\u5fc3\" \uff08Habbeger, 2009, p.14\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u65b9\u6848\uff08\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nscs.gov.sg\/rahs-programme-office.html\" target=\"_blank\"><em>\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\uff08RAHS\uff09\u8ba1\u5212<\/em><\/a>\u57282005\u5e74\u63a8\u51fa(<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Lavoix, 2010\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\u3002\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rsis.edu.sg\/rsis-publication\/cens\/207-wp207-enabling-security-for\/#.XHgxSc9KhZo\" target=\"_blank\">Lavoix, 2010<\/a>).\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u6210\u4e3a\u65f6\u5c1a\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e5f\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u56f4\u7ed5\u5176\u542b\u4e49\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u60c5\u62a5\u3001\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u6218\u7565\u7a81\u88ad\u7684\u6587\u732e\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u60f3\u6cd5\u548c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u4ece\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4f7f\u7528\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\uff0c\u800c\u60c5\u62a5\u7814\u7a76\u73b0\u5728\u5df2\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u77e5\u8bc6\u4f53\u7cfb\u548c\u4e00\u95e8\u5b66\u79d1\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u9605\u8bfb\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u60c5\u62a5\u76f8\u5173\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6781\u597d\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u4e66\u76ee\uff1aJ. Ransom Clark \u7684\u300a\u60c5\u62a5\u6587\u732e\u53c2\u8003\u4e66\u76ee\u300b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u9057\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8be5\u4e66\u76ee\u5df2\u88ab\u5220\u9664\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u901a\u8fc7 <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20230609153331\/http:\/\/intellit.muskingum.edu\/\">\u7f51\u7edc\u6863\u6848<\/a>\u751a\u81f3 <a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20220914170851\/http:\/\/intellit.muskingum.edu\/analysis_folder\/warning_folder\/analysiswarntoc.html\">\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u90e8\u5206<\/a>\u4f46\u65e5\u671f\u4e0d\u4e00\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u6700\u65b0\u7248\u672c\u4e0d\u7b26\uff0c\u73b0\u5df2\u9057\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76d1\u6d4b\u95ee\u9898\u5c06\u5141\u8bb8\u8bc6\u522b\u8b66\u544a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u6307\u6807\u6765\u76d1\u6d4b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e00\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u62bd\u8c61\u5316\u3002\u8ff9\u8c61\u662f\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e0e\u8be5\u6307\u6807\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528\u6307\u6807\u6765\u6536\u96c6\u6307\u793a\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u7684\u589e\u957f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c5%\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u6307\u793a\u3002\u901f\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\uff0c60\u516c\u91cc\/\u5c0f\u65f6\u662f\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u7279\u5b9a\u8bbe\u5907\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u5730\u70b9\u7684\u6307\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u76d1\u7763\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f15\u5bfc\u6536\u96c6\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u5982\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u6307\u6807\u6240\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63d0\u9192\uff0c\u5728\u6574\u4e2aSF&amp;W\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u4e0d\u65ad\u7f29\u5c0f\uff0c\u6240\u7528\u7684\u8bcd\u6c47\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u6700\u7b3c\u7edf\u7684\u3001\u5305\u542b\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u8f6c\u5411\u6700\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u4e3e\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u5143\u95ee\u9898\"\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\"\u95ee\u9898 \"\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f \"\u77f3\u6cb9\u5b89\u5168\"\u3001\"\u77f3\u6cb9\u5cf0\u503c\"\u3001\"\u94c0\u5cf0\u503c\"\u3001\"\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\"\u3001\"\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u653f\u6cbb\"\u3001\"\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u80fd\u6e90 \"\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\"\u95ee\u9898 \"\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u66f4\u5177\u4f53\u7684 \"Gasprom\u653f\u7b56\"\uff0c\"Keystone\u7ba1\u9053\"\uff0c\"\u4e00\u5e26\u4e00\u8def\u5021\u8bae\u4e2d\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\"\uff0c\u6216 \"\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u4e00\u5e26\u4e00\u8def\u5021\u8bae\"\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f \"\u56f4\u7ed5\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6216\u90a3\u4e2a\u5de5\u5382\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\"\uff0c\u7b49\u7b49\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf1TP9\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\u7684\u8b66\u544a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u505a\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u505a\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u6709\u533a\u522b\uff1f\u626b\u63cf\u662f\u5426\u5305\u62ec\u5728\u9884\u8b66\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e2d\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u540c\u6837\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u548c\u540c\u6837\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff1f\u6216\u8005\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u540c\u6837\u4ee5\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4f46\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0d\u540c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u5b81\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u533a\u522b\u662f\u4e24\u8005\u5728\u6574\u4e2aSF&amp;W\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002\u626b\u63cf\u662f\u6307 <a title=\"\u65e7\u91d1\u5c71\u548c\u5a01\u5c14\u58eb\u7684\u5206\u6790\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2011\/11\/28\/sfw-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/a>.\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1038\" height=\"795\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Horizon-Scanning-a-tool-for-the-strategic-foresigh-process-1038x795.jpg\" alt=\"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\uff0c\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u76d1\u6d4b\uff0c\u60c5\u62a5\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e3b\u4e49\" class=\"wp-image-20889\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Horizon-Scanning-a-tool-for-the-strategic-foresigh-process-1038x795.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Horizon-Scanning-a-tool-for-the-strategic-foresigh-process-300x230.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Horizon-Scanning-a-tool-for-the-strategic-foresigh-process-768x588.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Horizon-Scanning-a-tool-for-the-strategic-foresigh-process-1320x1010.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Horizon-Scanning-a-tool-for-the-strategic-foresigh-process-250x191.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/Horizon-Scanning-a-tool-for-the-strategic-foresigh-process.jpg 1322w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1038px) 100vw, 1038px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531\u4e8e\u8fd9\u662f\u4f60\u5728\u5904\u7406\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\u505a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u626b\u63cf\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u5c31\u9690\u542b\u5730\u5047\u5b9a\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u6ca1\u6709\u7406\u89e3\u6216\u5f88\u5c11\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u8fd9\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u8868\u8c61\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bd5\u7740\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u505a\u7ec3\u4e60\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u5f00\u59cb\u5bfb\u627e\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4ee5\u6700\u5bbd\u677e\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u5bf9\u4f60\u6b63\u5728\u5bfb\u627e\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u65e0\u610f\u8bc6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e00\u4e2a\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u9690\u6027\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86scan\u7684\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\uff0c\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5c55\u671b\u6216\u98ce\u9669\u5206\u6790\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5728\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7ed3\u675f\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e00\u65e6\u4f60\u975e\u5e38\u4e86\u89e3\u4f60\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u60c5\u666f\u5e76\u786e\u5b9a\u4e86\u8b66\u544a\u6307\u6807\u4e4b\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e5f\u662f\u5efa\u7acb\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u628a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6a21\u5f0f\u660e\u786e\u5316\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u7a0b\u6539\u8fdb\u548c\u5b8c\u5584\u4e86\u5b83\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u8bf4\uff0c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u533a\u522b\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5728\u4e8e\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u8fdb\u884c\u626b\u63cf\u6216\u76d1\u6d4b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u6216\u652f\u6301\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u5305\u7f57\u4e07\u8c61\u7684\u4ea7\u51fa<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0cscan\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u53ea\u8bc6\u522b\u5f31\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e8b\u5148\u6839\u636e\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6765\u9009\u62e9\u4fe1\u53f7--\u5047\u8bbe\u8fd9\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684--\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u53cd\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\u6709\u65f6\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u95ee\u9898\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5f31\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u65e8\u5728\u8bc6\u522b\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u5143\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u95ee\u9898\u7684scan\u6536\u96c6\u4fe1\u53f7\u65f6\uff0c\u6700\u597d\u662f\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5730\u5e7f\u6cdb\u548c\u5305\u5bb9\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5b9e\u8df5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u5e76\u677e\u6563\u5730\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u5176\u4ed6\u5143\u95ee\u9898\u6216\u95ee\u9898\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u76d1\u89c6\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u73b0\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u4f60\u5e94\u8be5\u786e\u4fdd\u8bb0\u5f55\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d1\u73b0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5f00\u653e\u548c\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6784\u6210\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u80fd\u591f\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6216\u90a3\u4e2a\u4e8b\u5b9e\u3001\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216 \"\u4e8b\u60c5 \"\u4e0e\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u90a3\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6807\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u53ca\u5176\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u76d1\u6d4b\u7684\u6307\u793a\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u8868<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/512px-PET-image-brain.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"339\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/512px-PET-image-brain-e1551433858511.jpg\" alt=\"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\uff0c\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u76d1\u6d4b\uff0c\u60c5\u62a5\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u4e3b\u4e49\uff0c\u504f\u89c1\" class=\"wp-image-2613\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90\uff1aJens Langner (http:\/\/www.jens-langner.de\/) (\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1)\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5171\u4eab\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\u4f46\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5404\u79cd\u504f\u89c1\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8fd8\u662f\u5ba2\u6237\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u65e0\u6cd5\u770b\u5230\u3001\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u8003\u8651\u4e00\u4e9b \"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u4ee5\u4e0b \"\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u53f7\u5728 \"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u4ee5\u4e0a \"\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u624d\u80fd\u591f\u63a5\u53d7\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4fe1\u53f7\u8981\u5f3a\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/10\/01\/%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%ae%a1%e8%a7%86%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e8%bf%9c%e8%a7%81%e5%92%8c%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%8a%e6%97%b6%e6%80%a7\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5173\u4e8e\u53ca\u65f6\u6027\u7684\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4fe1\u53f7\u5728\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u6f14\u5458\u611f\u77e5\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u4fe1\u53f7\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u4eba\u800c\u5f02\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u8fc7\u65e9\u5730\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6839\u636e\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u53d6\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u76d1\u7763\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u65f6\u95f4\u8f74\u5bf9\u5404\u79cd\u8ff9\u8c61\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b\u4e5f\u5f88\u5173\u952e\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u5411\u6211\u4eec\u8b66\u544a\u88ab\u76d1\u89c6\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u4f7f\u8b66\u544a\u53ca\u5176\u4f20\u9012\u6210\u4e3a\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u81f3\u5c11\u5728\u7cbe\u795e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u8ff9\u8c61\u6216\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u7ec4\u8ff9\u8c61\u548c\u4fe1\u53f7\u90fd\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u5b9a\u4f4d\u5728\u5176\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u4e0a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u4f7f\u7528\u590d\u6570\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8ff9\u8c61\u548c\u4fe1\u53f7\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5404\u79cd\u95ee\u9898\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5728\u524d\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u6240\u770b\u5230\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u7684\u662f\u5f3a\u5ea6--\u5bf9\u4e8e\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u6307\u6807\u53ca\u5176\u6307\u793a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u610f\u5473\u7740scan\u5b81\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u5f3a\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u65e0\u975e\u662f\u65f6\u95f4\u8f74\u4e0a\u53d8\u5316\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6307\u793a\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u89e3\u91ca\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4fe1\u53f7\u5f88\u5f31\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u79bb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u53d1\u751f\u5f88\u8fdc\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4fe1\u53f7\u5f88\u5f3a\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4eba\u4eec\u5c31\u63a5\u8fd1\u5b83\u4e86\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cscan\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u76d1\u6d4b\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u53ea\u6709\u5bfc\u81f4\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5f88\u5feb\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u503c\u5f97\u88ab\u7f6e\u4e8e\u76d1\u89c6\u4e4b\u4e0b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6765\u7b5b\u9009\u4fe1\u53f7\u65e2\u4e0d\u53ef\u53d6\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9scan\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\u662f\u7406\u60f3\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6700\u540e\uff0cscan\u4f1a\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e0d\u540c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ea\u80fd\u5bf9\u6240\u8bc6\u522b\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6709\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u5f31\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u5c06\u662f\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\u65b9\u9762\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u7cbe\u7ec6\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u7684\u524d\u594f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5730\u5e73\u7ebfscanning\u5bf9\u5e94\u4e8e\u76d1\u6d4b\uff08\u548c\u76d1\u89c6\uff09\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u624d\u662f\u4e0e\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u610f\u4e49\u6709\u5173\u7684\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u8868\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u6307\u793a\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5b58\u5728\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2aSF&amp;W\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6700\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u6b21\u76d1\u6d4b\u65f6\u90fd\u5b58\u5728\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*\u5173\u4e8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u8fa9\u8bba\u5185\u5bb9\u4e30\u5bcc\uff0c\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u4f5c\u8005\u3002\u5173\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u6770\u51fa\u5b66\u8005\u7684\u7b80\u8981\u603b\u7ed3\u548c\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u5982Helene Lavoix \"<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/independent.academia.edu\/HeleneLavoix\/Papers\/327854\/_Enabling_Security_for_the_21st_Century_Intelligence_and_Strategic_Foresight_and_Warning_RSIS_Working_Paper_No._207_August_2010\" target=\"_blank\">\u4f7f\u5f9721\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u60c5\u62a5\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u8b66\u544a<\/a>\uff0c\"RSIS\u5de5\u4f5c\u6587\u4ef6\u7b2c207\u53f7\uff0c2010\u5e748\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u662f\u672c\u6587\u7684\u7b2c2\u7248\uff0c\u57282012\u5e746\u6708\u7b2c1\u7248\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u5199\u548c\u4fee\u8ba2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d77\u519b\u7531tpsdave\u62cd\u6444\u3002CC0\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>\u5173\u4e8e\u4f5c\u8005<\/strong>:\u535a\u58eb&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/about-2\/%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Helene Lavoix<\/a><em>\u4f26\u5fb7\u535a\u58eb\uff08\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\uff09\uff0c\u662f\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a\u7684\u4e3b\u4efb\u3002\u5979\u4e13\u95e8\u4ece\u4e8b\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u3002\u5979\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u662f\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u5b89\u5168\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e66\u76ee\u548c\u53c2\u8003\u8d44\u6599<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Charest, N. (2012), \"<em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf, (\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dictionnaire.enap.ca\/dictionnaire\/docs\/definitions\/definitions_anglais\/horizon_scanning.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u3002<\/a><\/em>\"\u8f7d\u4e8eL.C\u00f4t\u00e9\u548cJ.-F. Savard\uff08\u7f16\u8f91\uff09\uff0c\u300a\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u767e\u79d1\u8f9e\u5178\u300b\u3002Savard\uff08\u7f16\u8f91\uff09\uff0c\u300a\u516c\u5171\u884c\u653f\u767e\u79d1\u8f9e\u5178\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gordon, Theodore J. and Jerome C. Glenn, \"ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING,\" The Millennium Project: <em>\u671f\u8d27\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5<\/em>\uff0c3.0\u7248\uff0c\u7f16\u8f91\u3002Jerome C. Glenn\u548cTheodore J. 2009\uff0c\u7b2c2\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Grabo, Cynthia M. ,&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ni-u.edu\/ni_press\/pdf\/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u9884\u6d4b\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\">\u9884\u6d4b\u7a81\u53d1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u5206\u6790<\/a><\/em>Jan Goldman\u7f16\u8f91\uff0c\uff08Lanham MD: University Press of America, May 2004\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Habbegger, Beat,&nbsp; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.crn.ethz.ch\/publications\/crn_team\/detail.cfm?id=96084\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u653f\u5e9c\u4e2d\u7684\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u3002\u6982\u5ff5\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u745e\u58eb\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f<\/a>\u82cf\u9ece\u4e16\u8054\u90a6\u7406\u5de5\u5b66\u9662\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08CSS\uff09\uff0c2009\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a title=\"\u5173\u4e8e\u60c5\u62a5\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4e66\u76ee\uff0c\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u5230\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u8b66\u544a\uff09\u518d\u5230\u56fd\u5bb6......\u5fc5\u987b\u8981\u6709\uff01\u3002\u6709\u8bc4\u8bba\u3001\u6ce8\u91ca\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\" href=\"http:\/\/intellit.muskingum.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">J.Ransom Clark\u7684\u300a\u60c5\u62a5\u5b66\u6587\u732e\u76ee\u5f55\u300b\u3002<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lavoix, Helene, <em>\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u8ba9\u5c55\u671b\u53d8\u5f97\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\uff1a\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u548c\u82ac\u5170\u7684\u6848\u4f8b<\/em>.(\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u59d4\u6258\u62a5\u544a\uff0c2010\u5e7412\u6708)\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lavoix, Helene, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rsis.edu.sg\/rsis-publication\/cens\/207-wp207-enabling-security-for\/#.XHgxSc9KhZo\">\u4f7f\u5f9721\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u60c5\u62a5\u4e0e\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u8b66\u544a<\/a>\uff0c\"RSIS\u5de5\u4f5c\u6587\u4ef6\u7b2c207\u53f7\uff0c2010\u5e748\u6708\uff08\u4e5f\u53ef\u8bbf\u95ee <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/361089\/_Enabling_Security_for_the_21st_Century_Intelligence_and_Strategic_Foresight_and_Warning_RSIS_Working_Paper_No._207_August_2010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u8fd9\u91cc\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>).<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(\u91cd\u5199\u548c\u4fee\u8ba2\u7248\uff09\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u9884\u8b66\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u89c1\u672a\u6765\u3001\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6d3b\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u3001\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u672a\u6765\u4e3b\u4e49\u6216\u4efb\u4f55\u9884\u6d4b\u6027\u6d3b\u52a8\u90fd\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u867d\u7136\u76d1\u6d4b\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u7528\u7684\u548c\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u672f\u8bed\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\uff1a\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[1789,1077,92,224,2560,886,884,123,212,236,133],"class_list":["post-2607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-scan-and-monitor","tag-featured","tag-indications","tag-issue","tag-monitoring","tag-open-access","tag-scan","tag-sigils","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-strategic-foresight-and-warning","tag-strategic-warning","tag-weak-signal","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This article aims at explaining how to best use horizon scanning and monitoring for anticipation. 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It gives first definitions then explains best practice.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/04\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-03-04T08:00:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-06T10:31:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/sailor-79529_1920-1038.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1038\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"11 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-04T08:00:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-06T10:31:25+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2306,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/06\\\/sailor-79529_1920-1038.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"indications\",\"issue\",\"monitoring\",\"Open Access\",\"scan\",\"sigils\",\"strategic foresight\",\"strategic foresight and warning\",\"strategic warning\",\"weak signal\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Methodology of Early Warning and Scanning\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/\",\"name\":\"Horizon Scanning and Monitoring for Early Warning: Definition and Practice\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/03\\\/04\\\/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2012\\\/06\\\/sailor-79529_1920-1038.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-03-04T08:00:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-06T10:31:25+00:00\",\"description\":\"This article aims at explaining how to best use horizon scanning and monitoring for anticipation. 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