As we explained<\/a> in the opening article for this series, to be able to answer these questions, considering the very high number of uncertainties involved, we need to use scenarios. Our aim is to contribute to the creation of robust scenarios in our field, political science and international relations. We are thus concerned with the future of polities, i.e. the futures of organised societies. Nonetheless, to be able to do so, we obviously have to take into account what other sciences, those primarily concerned with diseases and pandemics, find out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For now we are trying to establish both the general structure for our scenario tree and the timeframe. Thus we study main critical factors that will allow us to articulate our scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this article, we first briefly summarise the points made in previous articles. We then turn to the antiviral prophylaxis and treatment as a second key critical factor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Because we have collectively and individually “chosen” not to accept the baseline worst case scenario<\/a>, then our main aim is now survival<\/a> for each individual, and for each polity, society or country. Fundamentally, as long as the pandemic continues, thus as long as the baseline worst case scenario could become a reality, each polity will need to fulfil simultaneously two objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The first objective is to reduce as much as possible the fatalities resulting from the disease. This implies reducing the number of infected people and caring for those who are ill. This means, in turn, not overwhelming the care system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Should we fail, then, not only the dreaded scenario we seek to avoid would take place, but, at worst, all other fatalities and deaths we succeeded to prevent over centuries could come back. The excess deaths (compared with the pre-pandemic time) would be dramatic. It would also seriously impaire the capacity of a society to ensure its security and, at term its survival. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The second objective is to continue having a society that ensures fundamental security. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The two aims must be fulfilled at the same time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Indeed, if fundamental security is not ensured, then the system will rapidly collapse. Neither caring for diseased people, nor containment measures will be possible anymore. The pandemic will run its course as with the worst case scenario, but the situation will be even worse. If we do not stop the pandemic, then death and disease will take their toll and damage the capacity of society to ensure its security. Society will be fragilised, and in turn will less be able to handle the pandemic, increasing fatalities. We risk here to fall into a vicious circle.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSummary of previous findings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Objectives of societies faced with a pandemic<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
First objective<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\nSecond objective<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
Simultaneous objectives<\/h4>\n\n\n\n