{"id":28052,"date":"2020-11-09T12:54:36","date_gmt":"2020-11-09T11:54:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=28052"},"modified":"2022-03-07T16:12:47","modified_gmt":"2022-03-07T15:12:47","slug":"%e9%80%82%e5%ba%94%e7%87%83%e7%83%a7%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/11\/09\/adapting-to-burning-world\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9002\u5e94\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/%E2%9C%B8-jean-dominique-lavoix-carli-359958181\/\" target=\"_blank\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5149\u660e\u800c\u707c\u70ed\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u590f\u5929\uff0c\u706b\u6d77\u5728\u5317\u7f8e\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u5357\u4e9a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u6d8c\u52a8\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u6253\u7834\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u6269\u6563\u5f97\u66f4\u5e7f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5927\u706b\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u54ea\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5373 \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\"\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de8\u578b\u91ce\u706b\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c06\u73b0\u4ee3\u5e94\u6025\u670d\u52a1\u63a8\u5230\u4e86\u5176\u53cd\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u6781\u9650\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dm7HLYI78nw?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u52a0\u5dde\uff0c\u81ea2017\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u706b\u602a\u5df2\u7ecf\u76f4\u63a5\u5371\u53ca\u57ce\u5e02\u751f\u6d3b\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/10\/12\/%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e5%a4%a7%e7%81%be%e9%9a%be-%e7%8e%b0%e5%9c%a8-%e5%8a%a0%e5%88%a9%e7%a6%8f%e5%b0%bc%e4%ba%9a-%e6%96%b9%e5%bc%8f\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5168\u7403\u542f\u793a\u5f55\uff0c\u52a0\u5dde\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f<\/a>\", <em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>\uff0c2020\u5e7410\u670812\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de8\u578b\u91ce\u706b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u4e16\u754c\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u7834\u574f\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u4e5f\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u5426\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u73af\u5883\u711a\u70e7\u72b6\u6001\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u591f\u9002\u5e94\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u4e8b\u6001\uff1f\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684 \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c \"\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u662f\u5426\u4ece\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u9002\u5e94\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/fr\/2020\/01\/09\/when-denial-and-passivity-verge-on-stupidity-the-red-team-analysis-weekly-9-january-2020\/\">\u5f53\u5426\u8ba4\u548c\u88ab\u52a8\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u611a\u8822\u7684\u65f6\u5019<\/a>\" -&nbsp;<em>\u7ea2\u961f\u5206\u6790\u5468\u520a<\/em>&nbsp;- 2020\u5e741\u67089\u65e5\uff09\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6311\u6218\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u7f3a\u4e4f\u57fa\u7ebf\u6216\u5386\u53f2\u53c2\u8003\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u5982\u6b64\u957f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6781\u7aef\u71c3\u70e7\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u73b0\u5b9e\uff1b\u5b83\u4e5f\u662f \"\u672a\u6765\u7684\u9634\u5f71\"\uff08Robert Axelrod, <em>\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6f14\u53d8<\/em>, 1984).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1xT6eSyet4E?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u8003\u548c\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u7eb3\u5165\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u7b49\u5f85\u9002\u5f53\u548c\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u65f6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u7565\u8fdc\u89c1\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u9605\u8bfb\u5c0f\u8bf4\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c0f\u8bf4\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u52fe\u52d2\u51fa\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6837\u5b50\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2024\/02\/20\/apocalypse-in-the-red-sea-anthropocene-wars-9\/\">\u7ea2\u6d77\u4e2d\u7684\u542f\u793a--\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u6218\u4e89 (9)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2023\/11\/22\/the-war-in-gaza-and-chinas-pivot-to-the-middle-east\/\">\u52a0\u6c99\u6218\u4e89\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u4e1c\u652f\u70b9\u6218\u7565<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2023\/06\/12\/climate-emergency-ai-and-the-necessary-rise-of-geoengineering\/\">\u6c14\u5019\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b\u7684\uff08\u5fc5\u8981\uff09\u5d1b\u8d77<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2023\/05\/09\/war-in-ukraine-2023-super-el-nino-global-disruptions-anthropocene-wars-8\/\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89\u30012023 \u5e74\u8d85\u5f3a\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u548c\u5168\u7403\u7834\u574f--\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u6218\u4e89 (8)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/12\/12\/war-ukraine-europe-weaponization-winter-anthropocene-wars-7\/\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u3001\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u51ac\u5b63\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u5316--\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff087\uff09\u3002<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/10\/03\/an-excluded-russia-not-for-asia-anthropocene-wars-6\/\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u6392\u65a5\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff1f\u4e0d\u9002\u5408\u4e9a\u6d32--\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u7684\u6218\u4e89 (6)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/07\/11\/war-ukraine-warming-arctic-anthropocene-wars-5\/\">\u5317\u6781\u53d8\u6696\u4e2d\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89--\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff085\uff09\u3002<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/05\/30\/food-security-china-russia-and-ukraine-anthropocene-wars-4\/\">\u7cae\u98df\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd-\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170-\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff084\uff09<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u5229\u5bb3\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u5fc5\u987b\u4ee5\u6700\u5306\u5fd9\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u9002\u5e94\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u63a2\u7d22\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u707e\u96be\u7535\u5f71\u548c\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u6750\u6599\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528 <em>\u9ad8\u8038\u7684\u5730\u72f1<\/em> \u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u4eba\u7c7b\u672a\u6765\u88ab\u706b\u6240\u652f\u914d\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4f7f\u7528\u7535\u5f71 <em>\u706b\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb<\/em> \u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u601d\u60f3\u4f53\u9a8c\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u90e8\u5f71\u7247\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5ba1\u89c6\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d44\u6e90\u6210\u4e3a\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u91cc\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u91cd\u65b0\u9605\u8bfb\u8fd9\u90e8\u5c0f\u8bf4 <em>\u592a\u9633\u98ce\u66b4<\/em> \u7531\u65af\u8482\u82ac-\u5df4\u514b\u65af\u7279\u548c\u963f\u745f-C-\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u300a\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u300b\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ee5\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e3a\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u672a\u6765\u5b9a\u4f4d\u7684\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9884\u89c1\u6211\u4eec\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u548c\"\"\u3002<em>\u7ed3\u675f<\/em> (\u5df2\u77e5) <em>\u5386\u53f2<\/em>\u201c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u9884\u6d4b\u793e\u4f1a\u5982\u4f55\u9002\u5e94\u6216\u4e0d\u9002\u5e94 \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\"\uff0c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u8981\u786e\u5b9a\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5c45\u4f4f\u548c\u53d1\u8fbe\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u706b\u707e\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5f81\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u706b\u707e\u6467\u6bc1\u4e86\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u3001\u690d\u88ab\u3001\u90e8\u5206\u91ce\u751f\u52a8\u7269\u548c\u4eba\u3002\u4f46\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd8\u4f1a\u6d88\u8017\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\uff08\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/01\/27\/%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%87%8e%e7%81%ab-1\/\">\u5168\u7403\u5927\u706b (1)<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>\uff0c2020\u5e749\u670827\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5f53\u6ca1\u6709\u8fc7\u53bb\u65f6<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u4f1a\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u8bef\u5bfc\u6027\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e8c\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u5bf9\u6b27\u6d32\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u8f70\u70b8\u548c\u711a\u70e7\uff0c\u6216\u8d8a\u5357\u6218\u4e89\u671f\u95f4\u5bf9\u4e1b\u6797\u7684\u8f70\u70b8\u548c\u711a\u70e7\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u5728 \"\u6218\u4e89\u711a\u70e7\u65f6\u4ee3 \"\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff08Richard Overy,&nbsp;<em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.penguin.co.uk\/books\/537\/53742\/the-bombing-war\/9780141003214.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u8f70\u70b8\u6218\u4e89\uff1a1939-1945\u5e74\u7684\u6b27\u6d32<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0-\u9053\u5c14\u3002&nbsp;<em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/wwnorton.com\/books\/Cultures-of-War\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6587\u5316\uff0c\u73cd\u73e0\u6e2f\/\u5e7f\u5c9b\uff0c9\/11\/\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b<\/a><\/em>, 2010).\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u8d44\u91d1\u548c\u5efa\u7b51\u6750\u6599\u7684\u6ce8\u5165\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u7136\u518d\u751f\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u91cd\u5efa\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5de8\u578b\u91ce\u706b\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u6ca1\u6709\u5c3d\u5934\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c \"\u7684\u5947\u5f02\u6027\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u5173\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u5e38\u96be\u4ee5\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u7aef\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u8fdc\u79bb\u4e86\u6781\u7aef\uff1b\u5b83\u4eec\u53d8\u5f97\u6781\u7aef\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5730\u7406\u89c4\u6a21\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u6b63\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\uff08Ed Struzik\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/e360.yale.edu\/features\/the-age-of-megafires-the-world-hits-a-climate-tipping-point\">\u5927\u706b\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u8fbe\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>\u8036\u9c81360<\/em>\uff0c2020\u5e749\u670817\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>\u9ad8\u8038\u7684\u5730\u72f1<\/em> \u548c\u98de\u5411\u751f\u5b58......\u4e3a\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u6240\u9009\u62e9\u7684<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u6587\u5b66\u3001\u7535\u5f71\u548c\u7cfb\u5217\u5267\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684 \"\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\"\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u4ece\u8fd9\u7c7b\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0072308\/\" target=\"_blank\"><em>\u9ad8\u8038\u7684\u5730\u72f1<\/em><\/a> (John Guillermin, 1974)\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u5728\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u65b9\u9762\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u8da3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nch1URmJvMA?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u679c\u4e0d\u5176\u7136\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u88ab\u56f0\u5728\u4e00\u5ea7\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u6469\u5929\u5927\u697c\u4e2d\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u706b\u4ece\u6469\u5929\u5927\u697c\u7684\u4e2d\u95f4\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u706b\u52bf\u592a\u9ad8\uff0c\u6d88\u9632\u90e8\u95e8\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e72\u9884\u3002\u4ece\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u706b\u52bf\u5411\u5c4b\u9876\u8513\u5ef6\u3002\u5927\u697c\u91cc\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u88ab\u6c79\u6d8c\u7684\u5927\u706b\u5207\u65ad\u4e86\u4e0e\u5730\u9762\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u8d8a\u9003\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5927\u91cf\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002 &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u7269\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u672a\u6765\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u5927\u706b\u548c\u5b83\u4e0d\u53ef\u963b\u6321\u7684\u5ef6\u4f38\u8282\u594f\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u5e0c\u671b\u662f\u5230\u8fbe\u5c4b\u9876\u6c34\u5e93\u4e2d\u50a8\u5b58\u7684\u6c34\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u91ca\u653e\uff0c\u4ee5\u62ef\u6551\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\"\u5730\u72f1 \"\u662f\u4e00\u573a\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u6816\u606f\u5730\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u8513\u5ef6\u7684\u706b\u707e\u3002\u5b83\u8feb\u4f7f\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u805a\u96c6\u5728\u6c34\u8fb9\uff0c\u77e5\u9053\u6ca1\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u6c34\u6765\u62ef\u6551\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>\u706b\u7130\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb<\/em> \u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u7070\u70ec\u7684\u4e16\u754c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d70\u5411\u4e00\u4e2a\u7070\u70ec\u548c\u70df\u5c18\u7684\u4e16\u754c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u901a\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u68ee\u6797\u7b49\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\uff0c\u91ce\u706b\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u4e3a \"\u751f\u7269\u542f\u52a8\u5668\"\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5de8\u578b\u91ce\u706b\u73b0\u5728\u662f \"\u65b0\u7684\u4e0d\u6b63\u5e38\"\uff0c\u5373\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u548c\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\uff08\u9a6c\u514b-\u6797\u7eb3\u65af\u3002 <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marklynas.org\/2020\/06\/new-book-our-final-warning-six-degrees-of-climate-emergency\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6211\u4eec\u6700\u540e\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff1a6\u5ea6\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5<\/a><\/em>, 2020).\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u706b\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u706b\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\u53ea\u4e0e\u6ecb\u517b\u5316\u5b66\u53cd\u5e94\u7684\u71c3\u6599\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u9884\u6d4b\u5982\u4f55\u9002\u5e94\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\uff1a\u5927\u9646\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5730\u533a\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u957f\u7684 \"\u7279\u5927\u706b\u707e\u5b63\u8282 \"\u7684\u71c3\u6599\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u4e00\u6b21\u53c8\u4e00\u6b21\u5730\u71c3\u70e7\u3002\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u71c3\u70e7\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e1c\u897f\u53ef\u4ee5\u52a9\u957f\u706b\u52bf\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e1c\u897f\u53ef\u4ee5\u91cd\u65b0\u751f\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u71c3\u6599\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u711a\u70e7\u540e\u7559\u4e0b\u7684\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7070\u70ec\u548c\u70df\u5c18\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u5b83\u5c06\u62e5\u6709\u5f88\u5c11\u7684\u590d\u539f\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u6216\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4f5c\u54c1\u6562\u4e8e\u8fce\u63a5 \"\u601d\u8003\u4e0d\u53ef\u60f3\u8c61\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5 \"\u7684\u6311\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>\u706b\u7130\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u597d\uff0c2002\u5e74\u7684\u7535\u5f71 <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0253556\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u706b\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb<\/a><\/em> (Rob Bowman, 2002) \u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86 \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c \"\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u521d\uff0c\u4e00\u7fa4\u9f99\u9192\u4e86\uff0c\u4ece\u4f26\u6566\u7684\u5730\u4e0b\u9003\u4e86\u51fa\u6765\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Xd2hHvq-SEA?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u76f8\u5f53\u65e0\u575a\u4e0d\u6467\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u628a\u6574\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u70e7\u6210\u7070\u70ec\u3002\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u533a\u901a\u8fc7\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u5730\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u4e16\u7eaa\u57ce\u5821\u7684\u6d1e\u7a74\u91cc\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u6761\u6cb3\u9644\u8fd1\u751f\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u975e\u5e38\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u9632\u6b62\u5b83\u4eec\u88ab\u9f99\u711a\u6bc1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u706b\u70ed\u661f\u7403\u7684\u65b0\u7279\u5f81<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d70\u5411\u706b\u7684\u5730\u7406\u5b66<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u60c5\u8282\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u53e6\u7c7b \"\u7684\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\uff0c\u51c6 \"\u79fb\u690d \"\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a21\u4e16\u7eaa\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u5730\u7403 \"\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u7ef4\u6301\u4eba\u7c7b\u6700\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6816\u606f\u5730\u548c\u751f\u6001\u7cfb\u7edf\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u71c3\u6599\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u7406\u89e3\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u7684\u6211\u4eec\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u65b0\u5730\u7406\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u51e0\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u52a0\u5229\u798f\u5c3c\u4e9a\u3001\u5317\u7f8e\u897f\u6d77\u5cb8\u3001\u4e9a\u9a6c\u900a\u76c6\u5730\u548c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u6210\u4e3a\u7070\u70ec\u548c\u70df\u5c18\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u5c06\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u751f\u5b58\u653f\u6cbb\uff08\u5927\u536b-\u534e\u83b1\u58eb-\u5a01\u5c14\u65af\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.penguinrandomhouse.com\/books\/586541\/the-uninhabitable-earth-by-david-wallace-wells\/\">\u4e0d\u5b9c\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u53d8\u6696\u540e\u7684\u751f\u6d3b<\/a>, 2019).\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c06\u57fa\u4e8e\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u751f\u7269\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u6df7\u5408\uff0c\u800c\u5730\u7403\u6210\u4e3a\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u706b\u70ed\u661f\u7403\u7684\u98ce\u6c14<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u8fd8\u544a\u8bc9\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\u53d8\u5316\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u548c\u8ba4\u77e5\u5c42\u9762\u3002\u540e\u8005\u662f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u4f7f\u4eba\u7c7b\u80fd\u591f\u901a\u8fc7\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c38\u4e45\u7684\u707e\u96be\u72b6\u6001\u6765\u5e94\u5bf9\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u9009\u62e9\u5426\u8ba4\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\"\u519c\u6c11\/\u6218\u58eb\/\u6d88\u9632\u5458 \"\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u9002\u5e94\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9884\u9632\u706b\u707e\u98ce\u66b4\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ece\u5173\u4e8e\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u7684\u8bd5\u63a2\u6027\u9884\u89c1\u60c5\u666f\u7edd\u5bf9\u4e0d\u8bf1\u4eba\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u4eec\u8feb\u4f7f\u6211\u4eec\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u96c6\u4f53\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u5c06\u6025\u5267\u9000\u5316\u3002\u6816\u606f\u5730\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u5c06\u53d8\u6210\u71c3\u6599\u3001\u70ed\u91cf\u3001\u70df\u96fe\u3001\u7070\u70ec\u548c\u70df\u5c18\u3002\u800c\u5269\u4e0b\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u751f\u6d3b\u5c06\u662f \"\u8d2b\u7a77\u3001\u4e0b\u6d41\u3001\u91ce\u86ee\u548c\u77ed\u6682\"\uff08\u970d\u5e03\u65af\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Leviathan_(Hobbes_book)\" target=\"_blank\">\u5229\u7ef4\u5766<\/a>, 1651).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9274\u4e8e\u5927\u91cf\u4eba\u53e3\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u9002\u5e94\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u9009\u62e9\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u627e\u5230\u7f13\u89e3\u706b\u98ce\u66b4\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u56fd\u9645\u8c08\u5224\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u7ec4\u5408\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u6765\u7f13\u89e3\u5b83\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5f53\u7136\u662f\u6709\u7528\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8d85\u5927\u578b\u91ce\u706b\u6b63\u5728\u6210\u500d\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u5b83\u4eec\u8fd8\u5728\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u66f4\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u8513\u5ef6\uff08Michael Klare,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/us.macmillan.com\/books\/9781627792486#:~:text=All%2520Hell%2520Breaking%2520Loose%2520is,perspective%2520of%2520the%2520U.S.%2520military.&amp;text=And%2520rising%2520seas%2520threaten%2520American,intensely%2520focused%2520on%2520its%2520effects.\">\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u770b\u6cd5--\"\u4e00\u5207\u7686\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\"\uff08All Hell Breaking Loose, The Pentagon's Perspective on Climate Change<\/a>, 2019).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u63a2\u7d22\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u5373\u6df7\u5408\u7f13\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u9632\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>\u592a\u9633\u98ce\u66b4<\/em> \u548c\u53e6\u7c7b\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c0f\u8bf4\"<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.penguinrandomhouse.com\/books\/28184\/sunstorm-by-arthur-c-clarke-and-stephen-baxter\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u592a\u9633\u98ce\u66b4<\/a>\"\u65af\u8482\u82ac-\u5df4\u514b\u65af\u7279\u548c\u963f\u745f-C-\u514b\u62c9\u514b\uff082006\u5e74\uff09\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002  \u57282037\u5e74\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u5929\u4f53\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u592a\u9633\u98ce\u66b4\u5c06\u57282042\u5e74\u711a\u6bc1\u5730\u7403\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\"\u7ec8\u6781\u7bdd\u706b \"\u6210\u4e3a\u6574\u4e2a\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684 \"\u672a\u6765\u9634\u5f71\"\uff08Axelrod, Ibid.\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u4ee5\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u667a\u80fd\u592a\u7a7a\u955c\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u62b5\u5fa124\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684 \"\u592a\u9633\u8f70\u70b8\"\u3002\u5c0f\u8bf4\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u8fd9\u9879\u5de8\u5927\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5c42\u9762\u3002\u5b83\u8fd8\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u5b83\u5982\u4f55\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u90e8\u5173\u4e8e\u635f\u5931\u548c\u60b2\u4f24\u7684\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002\u7684\u786e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8be5\u9879\u76ee\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5176\u635f\u5931\u4e5f\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4f7f\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a \"\u592a\u9633\u706b\u74f6\u9888 \"\u7684\u7ecf\u8fc7\u4e2d\u751f\u5b58\u4e0b\u6765\u3002&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6765\u81ea <em>\u592a\u9633\u98ce\u66b4<\/em> \u5bf9\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u663e\u7136\u5728\u53d1\u5c55\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u9690\u55bb\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\"\u592a\u7a7a\u955c \"\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4e3a \"\u51b7\u5374 \"\u5730\u7403\u800c\u8bbe\u60f3\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u7b54\u6848\u4e4b\u4e00\uff08\u514b\u83b1\u592b-\u6c49\u5bc6\u5c14\u987f\u3002 <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"\/zh\/the Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5730\u7403\u7684\u4e3b\u4eba\uff1a\u6c14\u5019\u5de5\u7a0b\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u9ece\u660e<\/a><\/em>, 2013). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/K03cHnJY1qI?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u5982\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u7403\u5de5\u7a0b\u7684\u731c\u6d4b\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u592a\u7a7a\u955c\u5c06\u504f\u8f6c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u592a\u9633\u8f90\u5c04\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5171\u540c\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5a01\u80c1<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c0f\u8bf4\u8bf4\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6539\u53d8\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u548c \"\u706b\u66b4 \"\u7684\u8f68\u8ff9\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u987b\u96c6\u4e2d\u548c\u534f\u8c03\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u79d1\u5b66\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u548c\u5de5\u4e1a\u8d44\u6e90\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u5c06\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4eba\u7c7b\u65e0\u610f\u7684 \"\u5171\u540c \"\u7684\u5730\u7403\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u7406\u89e3\uff08Garrett Hardin, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eolss.net\/sample-chapters\/C13\/E1-45-01-07.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><em>\u7684\u60b2\u5267<\/em>e<em> \u4e0b\u8bae\u9662<\/em><\/a>, 1968). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u7edd\u5bf9\u6ca1\u6709\u63d0\u5021\u4efb\u4f55\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684 \"\u9000\u5316 \"\u6216\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u8fd9\u90e8\u5c0f\u8bf4\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u91cd\u65b0\u8c03\u6574\u73b0\u4ee3\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u662f\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u5916\u5c42\u7a7a\u95f4\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fbe\u5230\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u5bfb\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u662f\u5229\u7528\u73b0\u6709\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u7f13\u89e3\u548c\u9632\u6b62 \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c \"\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u4e86\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u9700\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u548c\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002\u56fe\u7247\u6765\u6e90 <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/fr\/users\/sippakorn-1917747\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=4755030\">sippakorn yamkasikorn<\/a> \u5fb7 <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/fr\/?utm_source=link-attribution&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=image&amp;utm_content=4755030\">Pixabay<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3002Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli \u660e\u4eae\u800c\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u672a\u6765 \u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u590f\u5929\uff0c\u706b\u6d77\u5728\u5317\u7f8e\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u5357\u4e9a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u6d8c\u52a8\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u6253\u7834\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u8513\u5ef6\u5f97\u66f4\u5e7f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u706b\u707e\u754c\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u54ea\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/11\/09\/adapting-to-burning-world\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u9002\u5e94\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff1f\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":28074,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1722,1529],"tags":[144,146,1789,37,2668],"class_list":["post-28052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-extreme-environments-security","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-featured","tag-paradigm","tag-wildfires","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Adapting to 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Each year, they break former records and spread wider, while becoming much more intense. 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