{"id":31308,"date":"2021-11-30T17:25:57","date_gmt":"2021-11-30T16:25:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=31308"},"modified":"2021-12-01T09:28:33","modified_gmt":"2021-12-01T08:28:33","slug":"%e4%bc%9a%e4%b8%8d%e4%bc%9a%e5%87%ba%e7%8e%b0%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%86%85%e6%88%98%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/11\/30\/will-there-be-climate-civil-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u5185\u6218\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8d70\u5411\u6c14\u5019\u5185\u6218\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89 \"\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f1a \"\u4ec5\u4ec5 \"\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">\u6ce8\u610f - \u4e5f\u95e8\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u6b63\u5728\u6574\u5408\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u6709\u5173\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5c06\u67d0\u4e9b\u51b2\u7a81\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a \"\u539f\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89\"\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/11\/02\/%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89\uff1f<\/a>\", <em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>\uff0c2021\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u662f\u6309\u7167\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u540e\u679c\u94fe\u5f71\u54cd\u6218\u4e89\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u5185\u6218\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5185\u6218<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u5b9a\u4e49\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u5185\u6218\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5efa\u8bae\u5c06\u5176\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8fb9\u754c\u5185\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f46\u5728\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u515a\u6d3e\u4e0e\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/civil-war\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>\u5927\u82f1\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\u300b(Encyclopedia Britannica)<\/em><\/a>).&nbsp; <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons alignwide is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-font-size more is-style-fill\" style=\"font-size:17px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/09\/%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb-%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e9%94%ae-1\/\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(121deg,rgb(254,205,165) 0%,rgb(254,45,45) 50%,rgb(107,0,62) 100%)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><meta charset=\"utf-8\">\u2b05\ufe0e <strong>\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e<\/strong> ...<br>\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49(s)\u3002\"\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff1f(1)\"<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide are-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6839\u636e\u9a6c\u514b\u65af-\u97e6\u4f2f\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u662f \"\u5408\u6cd5\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u5784\u65ad\"\uff08\"<a href=\"http:\/\/anthropos-lab.net\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/Weber-Politics-as-a-Vocation.pdf\">\u4ee5\u653f\u6cbb\u4e3a\u5929\u804c<\/a>\", 1919).\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u5185\u6218\u65e2\u9884\u793a\u7740\u5b83\u7684\u5f31\u70b9\uff0c\u53c8\u4f1a\u4f7f\u5b83\u6076\u5316\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u524a\u5f31\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5185\u6218\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u573a \"\u65e0\u5e8f\u7684\u6218\u4e89\"\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5bf9\u7acb\u7684\u53cc\u65b9\u7ee7\u7eed\u6218\u6597\uff0c\u800c\u6218\u4e89\u6210\u4e3a\u5176\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u7ed3\u679c\uff08Harald Welzer,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.polity.co.uk\/book.asp?ref=9780745651453\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89\uff1a21\u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u4eba\u4eec\u5c06\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u800c\u88ab\u6740\u5bb3\uff1f<sup>\u01de\u01de\u01de<\/sup>&nbsp;\u4e16\u7eaa<\/em><\/a>, 2012).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-top is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list aligncenter related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/29\/future-of-state\/\">\u9884\u89c1\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff1aEverstate\u7684\u7f16\u5e74\u53f2<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/10\/08\/the-chronicles-of-everstate-a-practical-example-of-foresight-analysis\/\">Everstate\u7684\u7f16\u5e74\u53f2\uff1a\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b9e\u9645\u4f8b\u5b50<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/06\/09\/future-of-state-and-governance-bibliography\/\">\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u672a\u6765--\u6587\u732e\u76ee\u5f55<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5185\u6218\u610f\u5473\u7740\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u74e6\u89e3\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u548c\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5df2\u7ecf\u5bf9\u793e\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4e8e\u5185\u6218\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002 &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u4ee5\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6848\u4f8b\u7814\u7a76\u3002  \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u57282006-2011\u5e74\u7684\u957f\u671f\u5e72\u65f1\u9762\u524d\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u8fd9\u79cd\u793e\u4f1a\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons alignwide is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 has-custom-font-size is-style-fill more\" style=\"font-size:17px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/05\/19\/%e5%af%b9%e4%b9%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%85%b0%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e8%ae%be%e5%ae%9a%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5\/#HIIK\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(121deg,rgb(254,205,165) 0%,rgb(254,45,45) 50%,rgb(107,0,62) 100%)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>\u2b05\ufe0e \u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e...<\/strong><br>\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5f3a\u5ea6\u3002 <br>\u6211\u4eec\u5728 \"\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u51b2\u7a81--\u8bbe\u5b9a\u9636\u6bb5 \"\u4e2d\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e8e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u3002<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button has-custom-width wp-block-button__width-100 has-custom-font-size is-style-fill more\" style=\"font-size:17px\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-background\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/01\/13\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e7%9a%84%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8%e5%a8%81%e8%83%81-5%e7%a7%8d%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e5%92%8c%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba\/\" style=\"background:linear-gradient(121deg,rgb(254,205,165) 0%,rgb(254,45,45) 50%,rgb(107,0,62) 100%)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u2b05\ufe0e <strong>\u66f4\u591a\u5173\u4e8e<\/strong> ...<br>\u53e6\u89c1 \"\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u6790\u672a\u6765\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\uff085\uff09\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u5371\u673a\"\u3002<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u5728\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\u548c2011\u5e74\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\u5f00\u59cb\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u8fd9\u5982\u4f55\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f5c\u4e3a\u66b4\u529b\u5784\u65ad\u8005\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u88ab\u524a\u5f31\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u63a5\u89e6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6709\u51e0\u9879\u5173\u4e8e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\u4e4b\u95f4\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u6307\u51fa\uff0c2006-2010\u5e74\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u957f\u671f\u5e72\u65f1\u7834\u574f\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u519c\u6751\u7ed3\u6784\uff08Werrell\u548cFemia, <a href=\"https:\/\/americanprogress.org\/article\/the-arab-spring-and-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316<\/a>, 2013).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list aligncenter related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/15\/potential-futures-for-syria-in-the-fog-of-war-1\/\">\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u4e2d\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/22\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-2\/\">\u4eb2\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u56e2\u4f53\u548c\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u529b\u91cf<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/29\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-3-state-of-play-part-ii\/\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-4-state-of-play-part-iii\/\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u6d3e\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5723\u6218\u8005<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/FP0AMtAOTYQ?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u519c\u6751\u7684\u8d2b\u56f0\u4eba\u53e3\u5927\u91cf\u6d8c\u5165\u51c6\u5907\u4e0d\u8db3\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u4e0d\u5584\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u73b0\u8c61\u7684\u8d85\u901f\u53d1\u5c55\u786e\u5b9e\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u65e0\u7f18\u65e0\u6545\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u5e93\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u53db\u4e71\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6279\u84c4\u6c34\u6c60\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5efa\u7b51\u7269\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u534a\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5373\u4f7f\u9762\u5bf9\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\uff0c\u4e5f\u975e\u5e38\u7f3a\u4e4f\u590d\u539f\u529b\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u3002\u78b0\u5de7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u6839\u6e90\u4e8e\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u81ea1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\uff08Aden W. Hassan\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/12\/09\/%e6%b3%a2%e6%96%af%e6%b9%be-%e6%9d%83%e5%8a%9b%e4%b8%8e%e5%b4%a9%e6%ba%83%e4%b9%8b%e9%97%b4%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7cae\u98df\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a>\"\uff0c\u300a\u6c34\u6587\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff0c2014\u5e743\u670829\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u653f\u6743\u5f3a\u884c\u53d1\u5c55\u68c9\u82b1\u79cd\u690d\uff0c\u5411\u56fd\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u53e3\u3002\u68c9\u82b1\u79cd\u690d\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u8017\u6c34\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c1998\u5e74\u81f32006\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6c34\u4e95\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6c34\u6e90\uff08Asan\uff0c\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u57282006\u5e74\u957f\u65f1\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e25\u91cd\u7f3a\u6c34\u4e86\u3002\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u573a\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ca\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u65e0\u80fd\u4e3a\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/nJL5PPHZS2A?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u66f4\u52a0\u6df1\u523b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u53d1\u751f\u57282011\u5e74\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\u8fd9\u4e2a\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6c14\u5019-\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\u7684\u6c14\u5019-\u9762\u5305-\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6574\u4e2a \"\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625 \"\u8fdb\u7a0b\u662f\u5728\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u666e\u904d\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002\u5bf9\u5c0f\u9ea6\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c24\u5176\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u57282007-2008\u5e74\uff0c\u4e0e\u7389\u7c73\u548c\u5927\u7c73\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5c0f\u9ea6\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u589e\u957f\u4e86100%\uff08Michael Klare\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/tomdispatch.com\/michael-klare-the-coming-global-explosion\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8fdb\u5165\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d44\u6e90\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u4e16\u754c<\/a>\"\uff0cTomDispatch\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670821\u65e5\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u98df\u7269\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9762\u5305\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5341\u51e0\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6570\u5343\u4e07\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u8d2b\u56f0\u5bb6\u5ead\u548c\u4eba\u6c11\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u662f\u751f\u7269\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5143\u7d20\uff08\u9664\u4e86\u6c34\uff09\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff1a\u592a\u591a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-4-3 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/cFL-I4fYKI4?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=13&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e16\u754c\u8c37\u7269\u5e02\u573a\u7531\u4e8e\u4e09\u4e2a\u5171\u540c\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u538b\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u4e09\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\uff1a\u6cb9\u4ef7\u66b4\u6da8\u3001\u4ece\u7cae\u98df\u8f6c\u5411\u751f\u7269\u71c3\u6599\u4f5c\u7269\u548c\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6295\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u7cae\u98df\u9a9a\u4e71\u7684 \"\u6d41\u884c\"\uff08\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14-\u514b\u83b1\u5c14\uff0c\"\u4e2d\u56fd\"\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/tomdispatch.com\/michael-klare-a-pandemic-of-economic-violence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u5904\u4e8e\u8fb9\u7f18\u7684\u661f\u7403<\/a>\"\uff0cTomDispatch\uff0c2009\u5e742\u670824\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2010-2011\u5e74\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u7cdf\u7cd5\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u8c37\u7269\u751f\u4ea7\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u65f1\u707e\uff0c\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7acb\u5373\u51b3\u5b9a\u5c06\u5176\u5269\u4f59\u7684\u4f5c\u7269\u4ece\u4e16\u754c\u5e02\u573a\u4e0a\u64a4\u51fa\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\u662f\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u53cd\u5e94\uff08Klare\uff0c2013\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/vOI6OCHerUI?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent&#038;listType=playlist&#038;list=PLRMgx6MVpIUaVdm7kgBy0J2LydTaQBbDE\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9762\u5305\u4ef7\u683c\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u5df2\u7ecf\u8574\u542b\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u3002 <meta charset=\"utf-8\">\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u51b2\u51fb<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u5e72\u65f1\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u95f4\u6bb5\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u4ea7\u91cf\u7531\u4e8e\u5730\u8d28\u8017\u7aed\u800c\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u964d\u3002\u968f\u540e\u7684\u8d22\u653f\u635f\u5931\u4f7f\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u6ee1\u8db3\u8fc5\u901f\u6269\u5927\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u8d2b\u7a77\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff08Mathieu Auzanneau, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.seuil.com\/ouvrage\/petrole-matthieu-auzanneau\/9782021480757\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u77f3\u6cb9\uff0c\u8870\u9000\u5373\u5c06\u6765\u4e34<\/a>\uff0cLe Seuil\uff0c2021\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u3001\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\u548c\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u5b66<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e3a\u4e86\u7406\u89e3 \"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6 \"\u5728\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u60f3\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u6258\u9a6c\u65af-\u970d\u5e03\u65af\uff08Thomas Hobbes\uff09(<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Leviathan_(book)\"><em>\u5229\u7ef4\u5766<\/em><\/a>\uff0c1651\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u9a6c\u514b\u65af-\u97e6\u4f2f\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/anthropos-lab.net\/wp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/Weber-Politics-as-a-Vocation.pdf\"><em>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u804c\u4e1a\u7684\u653f\u6cbb<\/em><\/a>1919\u5e74\uff09\u548c\u8bfa\u4f2f\u7279-\u57c3\u5229\u4e9a\u65af\uff08Norbert Elias\uff09(<a href=\"http:\/\/www.norberteliasfoundation.nl\/elias\/bibliography\/english.php\"><em>\u6587\u660e\u5316\u8fdb\u7a0b\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5377\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u4e0e\u6587\u660e<\/em><\/a>1982\u5e74\uff09\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u96c6\u4e2d\u4e86\u5408\u6cd5\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u5784\u65ad\u6743\u548c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u8d44\u672c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u53d7\u56fd\u5bb6\u4fdd\u62a4\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u6240\u8ba4\u53ef\u7684\u7edf\u6cbb\u6743\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u6df1\u6df1\u690d\u6839\u4e8e\u5b83\u7981\u6b62\u5176\u4ed6\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u4f7f\u7528\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u5f53\u56fd\u5bb6\u6709\u6548\u7387\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u5c31\u80fd\u4fdd\u62a4\u4eba\u6c11\u4e0d\u53d7\u5165\u4fb5\u3001\u5185\u6218\u3001\u707e\u96be\u6216\u666e\u904d\u72af\u7f6a\u7684\u66b4\u529b\u4fb5\u5bb3\uff08Norbert Elias, ibid\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u519c\u4e1a\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5438\u5f15\u8005<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u57282011\u5e74\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u9762\u4e34\u7740\u4e0d\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u77f3\u6cb9\u67af\u7aed\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u53ef\u60b2\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5b83\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u62a4\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u6c11\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u529b\u3002\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u65e0\u6cd5\u7ba1\u7406\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\uff08\u6770\u68ee-\u4f2f\u514b\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/thenewpress.com\/books\/new-threat\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u65b0\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6fc0\u8fdb\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u3001\u73b0\u5728\u548c\u672a\u6765\u3002<\/a> 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/qu64L74LC1k?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u662f\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c2011\u5e74\u7684 \"\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625 \"\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u53db\u4e71\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u548c\u57c3\u53ca\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fd0\u52a8\u5bf9\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u63d0\u51fa\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u65e9\u57282011\u5e747\u6708\uff0c\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u6267\u653f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u6253\u51fb\u4ed6\u4eec\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e4b\u95f4\u6ca1\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u548c\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u4e0e\u957f\u671f\u5e72\u65f1\u5bf9\u8be5\u56fd\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u548c\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002  \u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u6df1\u523b\u5730\u7834\u574f\u4e86\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6743\u5a01\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u52a9\u957f\u4e86\u7ade\u4e89\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u7834\u574f\u4e86\u673a\u6784\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u548c\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\uff08\uff08Acemoglu and Robinson,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/whynationsfail.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3a\u4f55\u5931\u8d25<\/em><\/a>, 2012). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u8fd9\u79cd\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u548c\u6743\u5a01\u6027\u51cf\u5f31\u65f6\uff0c\u4fdd\u62a4\u6c11\u4f17\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u5c31\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u6fc0\u8fdb\u5316\u548c\u66b4\u529b\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u5c31\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\uff08\u7ea6\u7ff0-\u683c\u96f7\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Black-Mass-Apocalyptic-Religion-Utopia\/dp\/0374531528\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>\u9ed1\u8272\u5f25\u6492<\/em>,&nbsp;<em>\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u548c\u4e4c\u6258\u90a6\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1<\/em><\/a>, 2007).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6c14\u5019\u4e0e\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u662f\u7efc\u5408\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u5173\u7cfb<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/02\/01\/water-a-strategic-foresight-and-warning-issue-for-national-security\/\">\u5168\u7403\u6c34\u5b89\u5168<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/24\/global-water-security-a-us-intelligence-community-assessment-pdf\/\">\u5168\u7403\u6c34\u5b89\u5168\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u7684\u8bc4\u4f30<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/03\/27\/building-upon-the-2012-global-water-security-ic-assessment\/\">\u4ee5\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u754c \"\u5168\u7403\u6c34\u5b89\u5168 \"\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/05\/22\/water-security-maps\/\">\u6c34\u5b89\u5168\u5730\u56fe<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/07\/15\/2013-2018-panglossy-water-privatization\/\">2213 - 2218 EVT - \u4ece\u6c34\u52a1\u79c1\u6709\u5316\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\uff1f(Panglossy)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/03\/09\/the-water-sigils\/\">\u6c34\u7b26\u5492<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u7efc\u5408\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u6301\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u4eba\u7c7b\u548c\u57ce\u5e02\u5bf9\u6c34\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8fd9\u79cd\u8d44\u6e90\u7279\u6709\u7684\u6709\u9650\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6c34\u5faa\u73af\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u88ab\u5d4c\u5165\u5230\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u4e2d\u3002 <meta charset=\"utf-8\">\u6c14\u5019\uff08\u8bc4\u4f30Johann Rockstrom\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\uff0c\"\u884c\u661f\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\u3002\u63a2\u7d22\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u64cd\u4f5c\u7a7a\u95f4\"\u3002  <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ecologyandsociety.org\/vol14\/iss2\/art32\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u751f\u6001\u5b66\u4e0e\u793e\u4f1a<\/a><\/em>, 2009).\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6c34\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u53d8\u5316\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u5bfc\u81f4\u5185\u6218\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u76f8\u4e92\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5f53\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6216\u5176\u4ed6 \"\u975e\u897f\u65b9 \"\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u7279\u6709\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u60f3\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u81f4\u547d\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u56fd\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u5f20\u7167\u7247\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e7c\u53d1\u62c9\u5e95\u6cb3\u6d41\u7ecf\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u6e56\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u7a7a\u95f4\u7ad9\u5728263\u82f1\u91cc\u9ad8\u7a7a\u8fd0\u884c\u65f6\u62cd\u6444\u7684\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u822a\u5929\u5c40\uff0c2021\u5e744\u670822\u65e5\u3002\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8d70\u5411\u6c14\u5019\u5185\u6218\uff1f\"\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89 \"\u5c06\u4e0d\u4f1a \"\u4ec5\u4ec5 \"\u662f\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u3002\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u6b63\u5728\u6574\u5408\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u6709\u5173\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5c06\u67d0\u4e9b\u51b2\u7a81\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a \"\u539f\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89\"\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89\uff1f\"\uff0cThe Red Team Analysis Society\uff0c2021\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f6c\u53d8\u662f\u7ee7... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/11\/30\/will-there-be-climate-civil-wars\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u5185\u6218\uff1f\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":31599,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1722,2860,2499],"tags":[1789,2058],"class_list":["post-31308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-featured","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","tag-featured","tag-syria-issues","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will there be Climate Civil Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/11\/30\/\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u6c14\u5019\u5185\u6218\uff1f\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will there be Climate Civil Wars? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Towards climate civil wars? &#8220;Climate wars&#8221; will not &#8220;only&#8221; be interstate wars. In our precedent article, we saw that current conflicts are integrating climate related tensions. This process is literally transforming certain conflicts into \u201cproto-climate wars\u201d (Jean-Michel Valantin, \u201cWhat are Climate Wars ?\u201d, The Red Team Analysis Society, 2 November 2021). 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