{"id":31981,"date":"2022-01-17T12:47:30","date_gmt":"2022-01-17T11:47:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=31981"},"modified":"2022-02-07T12:51:29","modified_gmt":"2022-02-07T11:51:29","slug":"%e5%9c%9f%e5%a3%a4%e9%80%82%e5%ba%94%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96-%e4%bd%9c%e4%b8%ba%e5%8a%a8%e5%8a%9b%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/01\/17\/dune-adaptation-to-climate-change-as-power-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"\"\u6c99\u4e18\"--\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u52a8\u529b\u7b56\u7565"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(\u827a\u672f\u6307\u5bfc\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/%E2%9C%B8-jean-dominique-lavoix-carli-359958181\/\" target=\"_blank\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli<\/a><br> \u7167\u7247\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/john_getchel\/39231710900\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7ea6\u7ff0-\u76d6\u8328\uff09\u3002<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u8fdc\u89c1\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af-\u7ef4\u4f26\u7ebd\u592b\uff08Denis Villeneuve\uff09\u76842021\u5e74 \"\u6c99\u4e18 \"\u7535\u5f71\u662f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6218\u7565\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u53cd\u601d\uff08\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af-\u7ef4\u4f26\u7ebd\u592b\u3002 <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8g18jFHCLXk&amp;t=4s\">\u6c99\u4e18<\/a><\/em>, 2021).\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u6218\u7565\u6743\u529b\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u548c\u884c\u4f7f\u4e0e\u73af\u5883\u72b6\u51b5\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u5b83\u65e2\u662f\u5bf9\u5f17\u5170\u514b-\u8d6b\u4f2f\u7279\u7684\u7ecf\u5178\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5fe0\u5b9e\u548c\u521b\u9020\u6027\u7684\u6539\u7f16\uff08\u5f17\u5170\u514b-\u8d6b\u4f2f\u7279\u3002 <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.fantasticfiction.com\/h\/frank-herbert\/dune\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6c99\u4e18<\/a><\/em>, 1965).<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">\u6ce8\u610f - \u4e5f\u95e8\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u683c\u9675\u5170\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd-\u6b27\u76df\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7ef4\u4f26\u7ebd\u74e6\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u6d41\u6dcc\u7740\u5bf9\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u73af\u5883\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6218\u7565\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u5bf9\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5c55\u671b\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.anthempress.com\/hollywood-the-pentagon-and-washington-pb\"><em>\u597d\u83b1\u575e\u3001\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u548c\u534e\u76db\u987f\u3002\u4ece\u4e8c\u6218\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168<\/em><\/a>, 2005).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u6545\u4e8b\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e86\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u4fdd\u7f57-\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u7684\u5192\u9669\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f\u5361\u62c9\u4e39\u661f\u7403\u516c\u7235\u7684\u7ee7\u627f\u4eba\u3002\u94f6\u6cb3\u7cfb\u7684\u7687\u5e1d\u628a\u963f\u745e\u514b\u65af\u661f\u7403\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u6743\u4ea4\u7ed9\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7236\u4eb2\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u516c\u7235\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u963f\u62c9\u57fa\u65af\uff0c\u53c8\u79f0\u6c99\u4e18\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u6c99\u6f20\u661f\u7403\uff0c\u662f \"\u9999\u6599 \"\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u5730\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4f7f\u592a\u7a7a\u5bfc\u822a\u5458\u80fd\u591f\u6cbf\u7740\u592a\u7a7a\u7684\u8936\u76b1\u524d\u8fdb\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u661f\u9645\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5e1d\u56fd\u7684\u7269\u8d28\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/8g18jFHCLXk?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=10&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u6765\u5230\u6c99\u4e18\u6240\u6697\u793a\u7684 \"\u653f\u6743\u53d8\u9769 \"\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u4e0e\u54c8\u79d1\u5b81\u5bb6\u65cf\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u3002\u8be5\u5bb6\u65cf\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u7684\u524d\u7edf\u6cbb\u8005\u548c\u5265\u524a\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u5b83\u662f\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u52b2\u654c\u3002\u5728\u7687\u5e1d\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u547d\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u4e89\u6597\u4ee5\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u88ab\u5c60\u6740\u800c\u544a\u7ec8\u3002\u5b83\u8feb\u4f7f\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u4fdd\u7f57\u52a0\u5165 \"\u5f17\u66fc\u4eba\"\uff0c\u5373\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u6c99\u5730\u6c99\u6f20\u4e2d\u7684\u571f\u8457\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6743\u529b\u4e0e\u73af\u5883<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6070\u597d\uff0c\u6574\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5728\u4e8e\u6743\u529b\u7684\u884c\u4f7f\u65b9\u5f0f\u662f\u690d\u6839\u4e8e\u81ea\u7136\u73af\u5883\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\uff08\u8a79\u59c6\u65af-C-\u65af\u79d1\u7279\u3002 <em><a href=\"https:\/\/yalebooks.yale.edu\/book\/9780300182910\/against-grain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9006\u5411\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u6700\u65e9\u671f\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u5386\u53f2<\/a><\/em>, 2017).\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u52aa\u529b\u638c\u63e1 \"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf\"\uff0c\u800c\u539f\u672c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u6d77\u6d0b\u529b\u91cf \"\u653f\u5e9c\uff08\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.britannica.com\/topic\/sea-power\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6d77\u4e0a\u529b\u91cf<\/a>\", <em>\u5927\u82f1\u767e\u79d1\u5168\u4e66\u300b(Encyclopedia Britannica)<\/em>).\u5728\u6218\u7565\u4e0a\u9002\u5e94\u8fd9\u4e9b\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u6b7b\u6538\u5173\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ece\u6c34\u7684\u4e30\u5bcc\u5230\u6781\u5ea6\u532e\u4e4f\u7684\u8fc7\u6e21\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u5bf9\u8017\u635f\u548c\u6743\u529b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\"\u6c99\u4e18 \"\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u4e00\u5207\u7684 \"\u5927\u8017\u635f\"\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6c34\u548c\u751f\u7269\u591a\u6837\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u8017\u635f\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ece\u8017\u635f\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u6743\u529b\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\u601d\u8003\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4ecd\u4f1a\u4e2d\u67aa--\u4ee5\u53ca\u60a8\u80fd\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48--\u89c6\u9891<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2023\/12\/20\/videos-scenarios-us-foe-2035-2050\/\">\u4f7f\u7528\u89c6\u9891\u8fdb\u884c\u60c5\u666f\u6a21\u62df\uff1a2035-2050 \u5e74\u7684\u672a\u6765\u884c\u52a8\u73af\u5883<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/07\/13\/from-seer-to-king-success-with-strategic-foresight-and-warning\/\">\u4ece\u9884\u8a00\u5bb6\u5230\u56fd\u738b--\u4ee5\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u8b66\u544a\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/05\/18\/from-cassandras-curse-to-the-pythias-success\/\">\u4ece\u5361\u6851\u5fb7\u62c9\u7684\u8bc5\u5492\u5230\u6bd5\u8482\u4e9a\u7684\u6210\u529f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/04\/28\/strategic-foresight-warning-intelligence-products-and-documents\/\">\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u3001\u8b66\u544a\u548c\u60c5\u62a5\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u6587\u4ef6<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/04\/14\/why-the-messenger-got-shot-and-how-to-avoid-this-fate\/\">\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4e3a\u4f55\u4e2d\u67aa\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8fd9\u79cd\u547d\u8fd0<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/03\/03\/delivery-communication-strategic-foresight-early-warning-products\/\">\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u4f20\u64ad<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/18\/scenarios-improving-the-impact-of-foresight-thanks-to-biases\/\">\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u504f\u89c1\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5c55\u671b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u4e0d\u662f \"\u7b80\u5355\u7684 \"\u597d\u83b1\u575e\u5a31\u4e50\u7247\u3002\u5b83\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684 \"\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\"\uff0c\u662f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8fdc\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<a>.<\/a> \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u597d\u83b1\u575e\u4e0d\u65ad\u5438\u6536\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u8fa9\u8bba\u4e2d\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5178\u8303\uff08Valantin,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.anthempress.com\/hollywood-the-pentagon-and-washington-pb\"><em>\u597d\u83b1\u575e\u3001\u4e94\u89d2\u5927\u697c\u548c\u534e\u76db\u987f...<\/em><\/a>, 2005).\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u7684 \"\u6218\u7565\u9884\u8b66\u5c42\u9762 \"\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u4e0d\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53ca\u5176\u573a\u666f\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\"\u6218\u7565\u8fdc\u89c1\u548c\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66 \"\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u6982\u5ff5\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5176\u529f\u80fd\u7684\u6df1\u5ea6\u3002\u5b83\u4f7f\u89c2\u4f17\u6210\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u547d\u8fd0\u7684\u89c1\u8bc1\u8005\uff0c\u5f53\u4eba\u7c7b\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\u5728\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u88ab\u5e26\u5165\u81f4\u547d\u9000\u5316\u7684\u6f29\u6da1\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5927\u8f6c\u79fb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6743\u529b\u548c\u5b83\u7684 \"\u81ea\u7136\u73af\u5883\"<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\"\u6c99\u4e18\u300b\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\u4ece\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u6d77\u6743\u8f6c\u5411\u6218\u4e89\u7684 \"\u6c99\u6f20\u6743\u529b\"\u3002\u5728\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u5f00\u5934\uff0c\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u7edf\u6cbb\u7740\u5361\u62c9\u4e39\u661f\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u6f6e\u6e7f\u7684\u661f\u7403\uff0c\u6709\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u6d77\u6d0b\u3002\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u901a\u8fc7 \"\u6d77\u7684\u529b\u91cf \"\u7edf\u6cbb\u5b83\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u5728\u6c99\u4e18\u4e0a\u7684\u79fb\u690d\u8feb\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u6539\u53d8\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u638c\u63e1 \"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf\"\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ece\u6c34\u5faa\u73af\u5236\u5ea6\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u751f\u6001\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6218\u7565\u8fc7\u6e21\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u6218\u7565\u8f6c\u578b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b83\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u56e0\u5176\u6240\u5904\u7684\u751f\u6001\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u8fc5\u901f \"\u8f6c\u53d8 \"\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u4ece\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u5361\u62c9\u4e39\u661f\u7403\u5230\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u6c99\u4e18\u661f\u7403\uff0c\u5bd3\u610f\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ca\u5176\u653f\u5e9c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5267\u70c8\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4e0e\u5f53\u524d\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u6c34\u5faa\u73af\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u540e\u679c\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5171\u9e23\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u7814\u7a76\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9a\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u8fc5\u901f\u8f6c\u53d8\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\uff08N. Kharlamova\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1755-1315\/395\/1\/012027\/pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u76ee\u524d\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9a\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u53d1\u5c55\uff1a55\u5e74\u7684\u89c2\u5bdf\u8bb0\u5f55<\/a>\"\uff0cIOP Conferences Series:Earth and Environmental Science, 2019\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/pYe6QIBdTKs?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=137&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u8349\u539f-\u516c\u56ed\u5730\u533a\u548c\u767d\u6866\u6797\u9576\u5d4c\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u5316\uff0c\u800c\u590f\u5b63\u5219\u6bd455\u5e74\u524d\u66f4\u5e72\u71e5\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6c14\u5019\u548c\u751f\u6001\u6761\u4ef6\u6b63\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u8f6c\u53d8\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5c06\u4e00\u4e2a\u901a\u5e38\u6f6e\u6e7f\u7684\u5730\u533a\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bb9\u6613\u53d1\u751f\u5927\u706b\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6070\u597d\uff0c\u57282021\u5e74\u590f\u5929\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u518d\u6b21\u9762\u5bf9\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9a\u5317\u90e8\u548c\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u5927\u706b\u3002\u5728\u4e0b\u8bfa\u592b\u54e5\u7f57\u5fb7\u7684\u4e1c\u5357\u90e8\uff0c\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u68ee\u6797\u6df1\u5904\uff0c\u5728\u79d8\u5bc6\u57ce\u5e02\u62c9\u7d22\u592b\uff08\"\"\uff09\u9644\u8fd1\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6297\u706b\u6218\u6597\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/environment\/russian-army-helicopters-join-battle-against-siberian-wildfires-2021-07-14\/\">\u4fc4\u519b\u76f4\u5347\u673a\u52a0\u5165\u5bf9\u6297\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9a\u91ce\u706b\u7684\u6218\u6597<\/a>\",\u00a0<em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>\uff0c2021\u5e747\u670814\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u82cf\u8054\u65f6\u4ee3\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u62c9\u7d22\u592b\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u82cf\u8054\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6838\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u7814\u53d1\u5730\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u904f\u5236\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u91ce\u706b\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6218\u7565\u610f\u4e49\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u6c11\u4e8b\u5b89\u5168\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u529b\u91cf\uff08\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/environment\/russian-planes-seed-clouds-raging-wildfires-near-siberian-power-plant-2021-07-19\/\">\u7535\u5382\u9644\u8fd1\u91ce\u706b\u8086\u8650\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u98de\u673a\u64ad\u79cd\u4e91\u6735<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>\uff0c2021\u5e747\u670819\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c \"\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u4e16\u754c\"<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4f8b\u5b50\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\uff08\u975e\u5e38\uff09\u8fc5\u901f\u53d8\u6696\u7684\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5982\u5927\u706b\uff0c\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u590f\u5b63\u6c14\u5019\u66fe\u7ecf\u6e29\u548c\u6e7f\u6da6\u7684\u5730\u533a\u7e41\u6b96\u548c\u6269\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u897f\u4f2f\u5229\u4e9a\u6574\u5408\u4e86\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u7684\u7fa4\u5c9b\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u90fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u706b\u6d77\u5578\u7684\u6d8c\u52a8\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u65b9\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5317\u7f8e\u6d32\u3001\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u5357\u4e9a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u6253\u7834\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u4f20\u64ad\u8303\u56f4\u66f4\u5e7f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u706b\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e86\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7acb\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5373 \"\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\"\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2020\/11\/09\/%e9%80%82%e5%ba%94%e7%87%83%e7%83%a7%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%96%e7%95%8c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9002\u5e94\u71c3\u70e7\u7684\u4e16\u754c<\/a>\", <em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>\uff0c2020\u5e7411\u67089\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5de8\u578b\u91ce\u706b\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c06\u73b0\u4ee3\u5e94\u6025\u670d\u52a1\u63a8\u5411\u5176\u53cd\u5e94\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u6781\u9650\uff08Ed Struzik\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/e360.yale.edu\/features\/the-age-of-megafires-the-world-hits-a-climate-tipping-point\">\u5927\u706b\u7684\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u8fbe\u5230\u6c14\u5019\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>\u8036\u9c81360<\/em>\uff0c2020\u5e749\u670817\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5bf9 \"\u5e72\u71e5\u548c\u71c3\u70e7 \"\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u6cbb\u7406\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a \"\u65b0\u4e16\u754c \"\u4e2d\uff0c\u6c11\u4e8b\u548c\u519b\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5355\u4e00\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\u5efa\u7acb\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/s2ROYtlRRQM?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u7ba1\u7406\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684 \"\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684 \"\u5371\u673a\u7684\u5957\u88c5\u3002\u6309\u7167\u8fd9\u4e2a\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4 \"\u6c99\u4e18 \"\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86 \"\u71c3\u70e7\u540e\u7684\u4e16\u754c \"\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u4eba\u7c7b\u5b9a\u5c45\u5728 \"\u5e72\u65f1\u4e16\u754c \"\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\"\u6c99\u4e18 \"\u4e5f\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u751f\u7269\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u8fc5\u901f\u800c\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u9002\u5e94\u3002\u5728\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\uff0c\u4f46\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u5230\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u5feb\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4e8e\u81f4\u547d\u5730\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u9002\u5e94\u4e0d\u826f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6218\u7565\u5f31\u70b9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5176\u6210\u5458\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u9002\u5e94\u65b0\u7684\u751f\u7269\u6c14\u5019\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u3002\u8fd9\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6700\u5927\u7684\u654c\u4eba\uff0c\u55dc\u8840\u548c\u590d\u4ec7\u7684\u54c8\u79d1\u5b81\u5bb6\u65cf\u901a\u8fc7\u5077\u88ad\u6253\u8d25\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9664\u4e86\u5e74\u8f7b\u7684\u7ee7\u627f\u4eba\u4fdd\u7f57\u548c\u4ed6\u7684\u6bcd\u4eb2\uff0c\u963f\u5d14\u8fea\u65af\u5bb6\u65cf\u90fd\u88ab\u5c60\u6740\u4e86\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u6c99\u6f20\u4e2d\u5bfb\u6c42\u5e87\u62a4\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u4e0e \"\u5f17\u66fc\u4eba\"--\u5f53\u5730\u7684\u6e38\u7267\u6218\u58eb--\u4e00\u8d77\u5b66\u4e60\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf\u89c4\u5219<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u4e3a\u89c2\u4f17\u94fa\u8bbe\u4e86 \"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf \"\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u539f\u7406\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u628a\u6c99\u6f20\u53d8\u6210\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u5730\u548c\u6218\u7565\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u628a\u5b83\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5360\u4f18\u52bf\u7684\u654c\u5bf9\u73af\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c99\u6f20\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u6027\u7279\u5f81\u662f\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7531\u6c99\u5b50\u3001\u6c99\u4e18\u548c\u5ca9\u77f3\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u65e0\u9650\u666f\u89c2\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u654c\u5bf9\u7684\u534a\u6e38\u7267\u90e8\u843d\u548c\u5de8\u578b\u6c99\u5730\u9002\u5e94\u6027\u63a0\u98df\u8005\uff08\"\u866b\u5b50\"\uff09\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6c99\u6f20\u628a <em>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a <\/em>\"\u88ab\u56f4\u56f0 \"\u7684\u73b0\u4ee3\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\"\u79fb\u6c11\u7cbe\u82f1 \"\u8bd5\u56fe\u4ece\u90a3\u91cc\u8fdb\u884c\u7edf\u6cbb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u88ab\u56f4\u56f0\u7684\u57ce\u5e02<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u8fc5\u901f\u5e72\u65f1\u5316\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u7cdf\u7cd5\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u57ce\u5e02\u7531\u4e8e\u53d7\u5230 \"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf \"\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u800c\u6210\u4e3a\u5b57\u9762\u4e0a\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9677\u9631\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u5730\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u7684 \"\u5927\u52a0\u901f \"\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u57ce\u5e02\u662f \"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf \"\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u8f93\u5bb6\uff08J.R McNeil, Peter Engelke,&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.hup.harvard.edu\/catalog.php?isbn=9780674545038\">\u5927\u52a0\u901f\uff0c1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u73af\u5883\u53f2<\/a><\/em>, Belknap Press, 2016\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\"\u6c99\u4e18 \"\u4ece\u5b57\u9762\u4e0a\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u6218\u7565\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u4ece\u6c99\u6f20\u4e2d\u770b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u3002\u6c99\u6f20\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e \"\u8ffd\u968f\u6c99\u5b50 \"\u7684\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u662f\u534a\u6e38\u7267\u7684\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u6c34\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/EGefXgpYVIw?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6d88\u8017\u529f\u7387<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e25\u683c\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6e05\u9192\u7ed9\u90a3\u4e9b\u4f9d\u8d56\u57ce\u5e02\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u548c\u590d\u6742\u6280\u672f\u7684\u4eba\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u5fc5\u987b\u643a\u5e26\u6602\u8d35\u548c\u7b28\u91cd\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u624d\u80fd\u5728\u6c99\u6f20\u4e2d\u6295\u5c04\u81ea\u5df1\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf \"\u4e5f\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d44\u6e90\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u9650\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u5236\u5b9a\u957f\u671f\u6218\u7565\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u548c\u5c0f\u8bf4\u90fd\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u4e2a\u653f\u4f53\u5728\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u6218\u7565\u9ad8\u5730\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6218\u7565\u65b9\u6cd5\u9700\u8981\u5728\u6c14\u5019\u8fc5\u901f\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u8d44\u6e90\u4e0d\u65ad\u8017\u5c3d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u81ea\u5f8b\u3001\u52aa\u529b\u6e05\u9192\u548c\u5fcd\u8010\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u63a7\u5236\u9999\u6599\u548c\u8017\u635f\u529f\u7387<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf \"\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u6218\u7565\u4f18\u52bf\u662f\u8d44\u6e90\u67af\u7aed\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\"\u6c99\u4e18 \"\u662f\u5df2\u77e5\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u6c99\u6f20\u6c99\u866b\u751f\u4ea7 \"\u9999\u6599 \"\u7684\u661f\u7403\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u5947\u7279\u7684\u4ea7\u54c1\u4f7f\u592a\u7a7a\u98de\u884c\u5458\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u592a\u7a7a\u7684 \"\u8936\u76b1 \"\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9053\u8def\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u9999\u6599\uff0c\u94f6\u6cb3\u7cfb\u5e1d\u56fd\u5c31\u4f1a\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u661f\u7403\u90fd\u5c06\u88ab\u7559\u7ed9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4e0e\u661f\u9645\u8054\u90a6\u7684\u8def\u7ebf\u9694\u7edd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece \"\u6c99\u4e18 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u5c06\u6c34\u5faa\u73af\u4f5c\u4e3a\u653f\u6cbb\u6743\u529b\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u6765\u638c\u63e1\u3002\u5728\u5e7c\u53d1\u62c9\u5e95\u6cb3\u548c\u5e95\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u6cb3\u7684\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u65b9\u9762\u66f4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u4eba\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u7262\u8bb0\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6cb3\u6d41\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u6240\u7ecf\u8fc7\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5176\u6c34\u7684\u83b7\u53d6\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5fc5\u9700\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5f15\u5bfc\u5e72\u65f1\u5316<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">20\u4e16\u7eaa60\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u4e3a\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u6c34\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u5236\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6218\u7565\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u9879\u76ee\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u4e1c\u5357\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u6216 \"Guneydogu Anadolu Projesi\"\uff08GAP\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u662f\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u963f\u5854\u56fe\u5c14\u514b\u572820\u5e74\u4ee3\u9996\u6b21\u60f3\u5230\u7684\uff08\"<a href=\"http:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20080422165950\/http:\/www.gap.gov.tr\/gap_eng.php?sayfa=English\/Ggbilgi\/gtarihce.html\">\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\u4e1c\u5357\u90e8\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u5386\u53f2<\/a>\",\u00a0<em>\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\u4e1c\u5357\u90e8\u9879\u76ee\u7ba1\u7406<\/em>\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\uff0c2006\u5e743\u670831\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u662f\u5386\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u5728\u5e7c\u53d1\u62c9\u5e95\u6cb3\u4e0a\u4fee\u5efa\u4e8614\u5ea7\u5927\u575d\u3002\u591a\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u5728\u5e95\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u6cb3\u4e0a\u5efa\u9020\u76848\u5ea7\u5927\u575d\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5b8c\u6210\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8def\u7ebf\u56fe\u3002(Joost Jongerden, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/mepc.org\/journal\/middle-east-policy-archives\/dams-and-politics-turkey-utilizing-water-developing-conflict?print\">\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u5927\u575d\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u3002\u5229\u7528\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u51b2\u7a81<\/a><em>\"<\/em>,\u00a0<em>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u653f\u7b56\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a<\/em>, 2010).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u758f\u5bfc\u6c34\u6218<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u6c34\u9879\u76ee\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u53d1\u5c55\u7535\u529b\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u704c\u6e89(<em>\u4e1c\u5357\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u3002&nbsp;<\/em>\u540c\u4e0a<em>)<\/em>.\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5229\u7528\u5176\u5bf9\u4e0a\u6e38\u6c34\u6e90\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u8fd9\u5f80\u5f80\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e0e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u975e\u5e38\u7d27\u5f20\u3002\u4e0e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u6d3e\u522b\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u57281975\u5e74\u548c1990\u5e74\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5e7c\u53d1\u62c9\u5e95\u6cb3\u5927\u575d\u5efa\u8bbe\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6d41\u91cf\u6025\u5267\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7d27\u5f20\u51e0\u4e4e\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e0b\u6e38\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u4e0a\u6e38\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u6218\u4e89\uff08Michael Klare,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/michaelklare.com\/books\/resource-wars\/\">\u8d44\u6e90\u6218\u4e89<\/a>, 2002).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u53ca\u5176\u63a7\u5236\u662f\u571f\u8033\u5176\u548c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u4e4b\u95f4\u957f\u671f\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u5b83\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5c06\u6cb3\u6d41 \"\u6b66\u5668\u5316\"\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u5bf9\u6c34\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u548c\u51cf\u5c11\u6d41\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea1975\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e0b\u6e38\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u6c34\u6d41\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u5206\u522b\u51cf\u5c11\u4e8640%\u548c80%\u3002  (Connor Dilleen, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.maritime-executive.com\/editorials\/turkey-s-dam-building-could-create-new-middle-east-conflict\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u6c34\u575d\u5efa\u8bbe\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u65b0\u7684\u4e2d\u4e1c\u51b2\u7a81<\/a>\", <em>\u6d77\u4e8b\u6267\u884c\u5b98<\/em>\uff0c2019\u5e7411\u67086\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5411\u5176\u90bb\u56fd\u8f93\u9001\u4e86 \"\u6f2b\u957f\u7684\u8017\u635f\"\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u4e0b\u6e38\u5730\u533a\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\uff08Klare, ibid\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/bFpPwABc9cA?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea2003\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u5f00\u59cb\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u5229\u7528\u5176\u5927\u575d\u964d\u4f4e\u8fd9\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6c34\u6d41\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u65e2\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u9ad8\u5ea6\u653f\u6cbb\u5316\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6218\u7565\u6b66\u5668\u3002\u6070\u597d\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u53d1\u5c55\u5357\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u62e5\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u8d2b\u56f0\u5730\u533a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u652f\u6301\u4e86\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u5728\u5357\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u4e2d\u7edf\u6cbb\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002(Ilektra Tsakalidou, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsecuritybeat.org\/2013\/08\/great-anatolian-project-water-management-panacea-crisis-multiplier-turkeys-kurds\/\">\u4f1f\u5927\u7684\u5b89\u7eb3\u6258\u5229\u4e9a\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u662f\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u571f\u8033\u5176\u4eba\u7684\u7075\u4e39\u5999\u836f\u8fd8\u662f\u5371\u673a\u7684\u500d\u589e\u5668\uff1f<\/a>\",\u00a0<em>\u65b0\u5b89\u5168\u8282\u62cd<\/em>\uff0c2013\u5e748\u67085\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u67af\u7aed\u7684\u6218\u4e89<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5f53\u5c40\u73b0\u5728\u5bf9\u6325\u821e\u548c\u4f7f\u7528\"\uff08\u6c34\uff09\u67af\u7aed\u6743\u529b \"\u6709\u4e86\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u5b83\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u56fd\u9645\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u6574\u4e2a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u6b63\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u5e72\u65f1\u5316\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u8017\u6c34\u6743\u5c31\u66f4\u52a0\u6709\u6548\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u57282021\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u5e72\u65f1\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u652f\u6301\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u6c11\u519b\uff08SNA\uff09\u5728\u5361\u5e03\u8d6b\u6cb3\u4e0a\u4fee\u5efa\u4e86\u4e09\u5ea7\u6c34\u575d\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5207\u65ad\u4e86\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u4e0b\u6e38\u793e\u533a\u7684\u7528\u6c34\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u793e\u533a\u5df2\u7ecf\u53d7\u5230\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002\u78b0\u5de7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u653b\u52bf\u4e0e\u8fd9\u79cd \"\u8017\u6c34 \"\u653b\u52bf\u540c\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/yJVAa8XOrcw?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c34\u8d44\u6e90\u8017\u635f\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u4ece\u5b57\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\u662f\u5bf9 \"\u8017\u635f\u529b\u91cf \"\u7684\u5c0f\u89c4\u6a21\u548c\u975e\u5e38\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u73af\u5883\u6218\u7565\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u662f\u7535\u5f71\u6240\u63a2\u8ba8\u7684 \"\u6c99\u6f20\u529b\u91cf \"\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6070\u597d\uff0c\"\u6c99\u4e18-\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206 \"\u5bd3\u610f\u7740\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6b63\u5728\u53d8\u6696\u548c\u67af\u7aed\u7684\u661f\u7403\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6218\u7565\u503e\u5411\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u601d\u60f3\u4f53\u9a8c\uff0c\u5b83\u8b66\u544a\u6211\u4eec\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4fc3\u4f7f\u56fd\u9645\u6743\u529b\u5728\u80fd\u591f\u9002\u5e94\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u91cd\u65b0\u5206\u914d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(\u827a\u672f\u6307\u5bfc\uff1aJean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli \u7167\u7247\uff1aJohn Getchel\uff09 \u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u548c\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c \u4e39\u5c3c\u65af-\u7ef4\u4f26\u7ebd\u74e6\uff08Denis Villeneuve\uff09\u76842021\u5e74\u300a\u6c99\u4e18\u300b\u7535\u5f71\u662f\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6218\u7565\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u53cd\u601d\uff08Denis Villeneuve, Dune, 2021\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86\u6218\u7565\u6743\u529b\u7684\u6765\u6e90\u548c\u884c\u4f7f\u4e0e......\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u8054\u7cfb\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/01\/17\/dune-adaptation-to-climate-change-as-power-strategy\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\"\u6c99\u4e18\"--\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u52a8\u529b\u6218\u7565\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":32038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1722,2860,3315],"tags":[1789,2560],"class_list":["post-31981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-featured","category-kurds-and-kurdistan","tag-featured","tag-open-access","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;Dune&quot; - Adaptation to Climate Change as Power Strategy &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/01\/17\/\u571f\u58e4\u9002\u5e94\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316-\u4f5c\u4e3a\u52a8\u529b\u7684\u6218\u7565\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&quot;Dune&quot; - Adaptation to Climate Change as Power Strategy &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Art direction: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli Photo: John Getchel) A movie and a thought experiment in strategic foresight The 2021 \u201cDune\u201d movie by Denis Villeneuve is a deep reflexion about the future of political and strategic power (Denis Villeneuve, Dune, 2021). 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