{"id":32428,"date":"2022-02-07T13:44:58","date_gmt":"2022-02-07T12:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=32428"},"modified":"2024-02-19T19:07:33","modified_gmt":"2024-02-19T18:07:33","slug":"belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/02\/07\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u5316--\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff081\uff09\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(\u827a\u672f\u6307\u5bfc<a href=\"https:\/\/jdlavoixcarli.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"belarus-borders-theatre-of-operations\">\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff1a\u884c\u52a8\u533a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea2021\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u628a\u79fb\u6c11\u6295\u5c04\u5230\u4e86\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\u548c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u7684\u8fb9\u5883\u4e0a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u6765\u81ea\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u3001\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u3001\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u65af\u5766\u3001\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u3001\u963f\u5c14\u53ca\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u6469\u6d1b\u54e5\u3001\u521a\u679c\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u3001\u5580\u9ea6\u9686\u548c\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\uff08Yuras Karmanau\uff0c\"\u89e3\u91ca\u8005\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/world\/articles\/2021-11-11\/explainer-whats-behind-the-crisis-at-belarus-poland-border\">\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af-\u6ce2\u5170\u8fb9\u5883\u5371\u673a\u7684\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/a> ?\", <em>\u7f8e\u8054\u793e<\/em>\uff0c2021\u5e7411\u670811\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u79fb\u6c11\u90fd\u6765\u81ea\u88ab\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u3001Covid-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u8e42\u8e8f\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u63d0\u4f9b\u88c5\u5907\uff0c\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7a7f\u8d8a\u8fb9\u5883\u56f4\u680f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WGny3zlR8CI?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9664\u5176\u4ed6\u5e94\u5bf9\u63aa\u65bd\u5916\uff0c\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\u548c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u76ee\u524d\u6b63\u5728\u4e0e\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u5171\u540c\u8fb9\u754c\u4e0a\u4fee\u5efa\u56f4\u5899\u548c\u5de8\u578b\u6805\u680f\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6b27\u76df\u3001\u5317\u7ea6\u548c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\u548c\u652f\u6301\u3002\u6ce2\u5170\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u5176\u8fb9\u5883\u52a8\u5458\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc715000\u4eba\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf\u90e8\u961f\u548c\u7279\u79cd\u90e8\u961f\uff08\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2022\/01\/26\/poland-starts-construction-of-350-million-border-fence-with-belarus\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6ce2\u5170\u5f00\u59cb\u5efa\u9020\u4e0e\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u76843.5\u4ebf\u8fb9\u5883\u56f4\u680f<\/a>\", <em>\u6b27\u6d32\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u4e0e\u6cd5\u65b0\u793e<\/em>, 26\/01\/2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u901a\u8fc7\u8fd9\u79cd \"\u79fb\u6c11\u653b\u52bf\"\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5f53\u5c40\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u56fd\u5bb6\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u5317\u7ea6\u4e2d\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5185\u90e8\u5371\u673a\u3002\u8fd9\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\/\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\/\u5317\u7ea6\u548c\u6b27\u76df\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u5927\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff08H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e4%b9%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%85%b0%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e5%8c%85-%e4%ba%86%e8%a7%a3%e5%8d%b1%e6%9c%ba%e7%9a%84%e6%a0%b9%e6%ba%90\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5371\u673a\u5305--\u4e86\u89e3\u5371\u673a\u7684\u6839\u6e90<\/a>\", <em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ahXAVjv7gHA?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><div data-block-name=\"woocommerce\/product-new\" data-columns=\"1\" data-content-visibility=\"{&quot;title&quot;:true,&quot;price&quot;:false,&quot;rating&quot;:false,&quot;button&quot;:false}\" data-rows=\"1\" class=\"wc-block-grid wp-block-product-new wp-block-woocommerce-product-new wc-block-product-new has-1-columns\"><ul class=\"wc-block-grid__products\"><li class=\"wc-block-grid__product\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/product\/gephi-tutorials-for-strategic-modelling-scenario-building-update-package-alumni\/\" class=\"wc-block-grid__product-link\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"wc-block-grid__product-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-woocommerce_thumbnail size-woocommerce_thumbnail\" alt=\"\u6218\u7565\u5efa\u6a21 Gephi \u6559\u7a0b + \u573a\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u66f4\u65b0\u5305\uff08\u6821\u53cb\u4f1a\uff09\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-16x10.jpg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/tutoriel-redesign-03-1568-300x180.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"wc-block-grid__product-title\">\u6218\u7565\u5efa\u6a21 Gephi \u6559\u7a0b + \u573a\u666f\u6784\u5efa\u66f4\u65b0\u5305\uff08\u6821\u53cb\u4f1a\uff09<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6781\u5176\u5947\u602a\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5f62\u52bf\u5fc5\u987b\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u4e3a\u6b63\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u65b0\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u7684 \"\u6218\u4e89\u827a\u672f \"\u662f\u5f53\u524d\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \"\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16 \"\u7684\u5730\u7403\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u540e\u679c\u6240\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u660e\u65af\u514b\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5bb6\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u5b8c\u5168\u56fa\u6709\u7684 \"\u591a\u5371\u673a \"\u5de5\u7a0b\u5316\u548c\u6b66\u5668\u5316\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"weaponizing-the-war-and-climate-crisis-of-the-middle-east\">\u5c06\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a\u6b66\u5668\u5316<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"engineering-migration\">\u5de5\u7a0b\u8fc1\u79fb<\/h3>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">\u6ce8\u610f - \u4e5f\u95e8\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u683c\u9675\u5170\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd-\u6b27\u76df\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2020\u5e74\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u3001\u82f1\u56fd\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u62d2\u7edd\u627f\u8ba4\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u5362\u5361\u7533\u79d1\u7684\uff08\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\uff09\u8fde\u4efb\u30022021\u5e74\uff0c\u660e\u65af\u514b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8\u906d\u5230\u9547\u538b\u540e\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u5bf9\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5b9e\u65bd\u4e86\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5236\u88c1\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53cd\u51fb\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\u3001\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6b27\u76df\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u7684\u8fb9\u5883\u4e0a\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d1\u52a8\u79fb\u6c11\u6f6e\uff08Karmanau, ibid\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u7a81\u5982\u5176\u6765\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u6f6e\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u7834\u574f\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u81ea2015\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u4e00\u767e\u4e07\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u6d8c\u5165\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u95ee\u9898\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u6210\u5458\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u8fa9\u8bba\uff08Aida Sanchez Alonso\u548cChristopher Pitchers\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2021\/12\/29\/migrants-at-the-belarusian-border-one-of-the-2021-conflicts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2021\u5e74\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u95ee\u9898\u91cd\u65b0\u6210\u4e3a\u6b27\u76df\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u9996\u8981\u95ee\u9898<\/a>\", <em>\u6b27\u6d32\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51\u4e0e\u6cd5\u65b0\u793e<\/em>, 29\/12\/21).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"air-bridge\">\u7a7a\u6c14\u6865<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u81ea2021\u5e746\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u53d1\u8d77\u4e86\u5a92\u4f53\u653b\u52bf\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u793e\u4ea4\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u3002\u5176\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5728\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5438\u5f15\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u4e1c\u3001\u9a6c\u683c\u91cc\u5e03\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u4e2d\u4e9a\u548c\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5e7f\u544a\u627f\u8bfa\u63d0\u4f9b\u8fdb\u5165\u6b27\u76df\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002  \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u5e7f\u544a\u53d9\u8ff0\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u5c06\u80fd\u591f\u8981\u6c42\u83b7\u5f97\u96be\u6c11\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u6216\u8fbe\u5230\u5fb7\u56fd\uff0c\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u627e\u5230\u5de5\u4f5c\uff08\"<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2021%E2%80%932022_Belarus%E2%80%93European_Union_border_crisis\">2021-2022\u5e74\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af-\u6b27\u76df\u8fb9\u5883\u5371\u673a<\/a>\", <em>\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u51e0\u5468\u548c\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u4e1c\u3001\u975e\u6d32\u548c\u4e2d\u4e9a\u7684\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u822a\u7a7a\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u822a\u73ed\u6570\u91cf\u660e\u663e\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u6765\u81ea\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u8fd117,000\u4eba\u62b5\u8fbe\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u68ee\u6797\u8425\u5730\u3002\u4ece\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u6e17\u900f\u5230\u6b27\u76df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\u548c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u7684\u8b66\u5bdf\u90e8\u961f\u901a\u8fc7\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4ed6\u4eec\u3002\u4ece11\u670821\u65e5\u8d77\uff0c\u5728\u8fb9\u5883\u7684\u68ee\u6797\u91cc\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5947\u602a\u7684\u3001\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u6e38\u51fb\u6218\u3002\u90a3\u4e9b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6218\u573a\uff0c\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\u548c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u7684\u90e8\u961f\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u963b\u6321\u548c\u8ddf\u8e2a\u79fb\u6c11\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fb9\u5883\u90e8\u961f\u4f7f\u7528\u65e0\u4eba\u673a\u3001\u50ac\u6cea\u74e6\u65af\u3001\u6805\u680f\u3001\u6c34\u70ae\u6765\u963b\u6b62\u4ed6\u4eec\u5230\u8fbe\u6b27\u76df\u9886\u571f\uff08\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\uff0c\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/y67uvAINmks?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"importing-the-geopolitical-and-climate-crisis\">\u8f93\u5165\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5371\u673a<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"war-and-climate-change-as-commons\">\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u516c\u6709\u7684<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u5f15\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff1a\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fc3\u4f7f\u6765\u81ea\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u9646\u7684\u4eba\u63a5\u53d7\u627f\u62c5\u8fd9\u79cd\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u56de\u7b54\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u4e86\u89e3\u5f62\u6210\u4ed6\u4eec\u51b3\u5b9a\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5c31\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u4eba\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u4eba\u3001\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u548c\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u4eba\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u6709\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u540e\u679c\u7684\u96c6\u4f53\u7ecf\u5386\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u4e2d\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u90fd\u5728\u5e72\u65f1\u5316\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2021\/11\/30\/%e4%bc%9a%e4%b8%8d%e4%bc%9a%e5%87%ba%e7%8e%b0%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%86%85%e6%88%98%ef%bc%9f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6709\u6c14\u5019\u5185\u6218\uff1f<\/a>\", <em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>\uff0c2021\u5e7411\u670830\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u57282021\u5e74\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u548c\u4f0a\u6717\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5fcd\u53d7\u4e00\u573a \"\u65b0\u7684 \"\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u5e72\u65f1\uff08\"<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2021-11-syria-reservoir-dries.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6c34\u5e93\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73b0\u5e72\u6db8<\/a>\", <em>Phys.org<\/em>\uff0c2021\u5e7411\u670811\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Sok8bAcuuYk?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u573a\u8d85\u7ea7\u5e72\u65f1\u662f\u7ee72006\u5e74\u548c2016\u5e74\u7684\u5176\u4ed6 \"\u5386\u53f2\u6027 \"\u5468\u671f\u4e4b\u540e\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u63d0\u9192\uff0c2006-2012\u5e74\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u5468\u671f\u5728\u8e42\u8e8f\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u519c\u6751\u65b9\u9762\u53d1\u6325\u4e86\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u78b0\u5de7\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5bf9\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6e90\u4e8e\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u81ea1990\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u3002(Aden W. Hassan et alii,\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/12\/09\/%e6%b3%a2%e6%96%af%e6%b9%be-%e6%9d%83%e5%8a%9b%e4%b8%8e%e5%b4%a9%e6%ba%83%e4%b9%8b%e9%97%b4%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e7%b3%bb\/\">\u7cae\u98df\u548c\u519c\u4e1a\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5730\u4e0b\u6c34\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a>\"\uff0c\u300a\u6c34\u6587\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff0c2014\u5e743\u670829\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u8be5\u653f\u6743\u5f3a\u884c\u53d1\u5c55\u68c9\u82b1\u79cd\u690d\uff0c\u5411\u56fd\u9645\u5e02\u573a\u51fa\u53e3\u3002\u68c9\u82b1\u79cd\u690d\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u8017\u6c34\u7684\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c1998\u5e74\u81f32006\u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6c34\u4e95\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u76f8\u5f53\u6709\u9650\u7684\u6c34\u6e90\uff08Asan\uff0c\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u57282006\u5e74\u957f\u65f1\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e25\u91cd\u7f3a\u6c34\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"the-proliferation-of-super-drought\">\u8d85\u7ea7\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u6cdb\u6ee5<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u573a\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u53ca\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u65e0\u80fd\u4e3a\u529b\u3002\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u66f4\u52a0\u6df1\u523b\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u53d1\u751f\u57282011\u5e74\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\u7684\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6c14\u5019-\u653f\u6cbb\u5173\u7cfb\u4e2d\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u968f\u540e\u7684\u5185\u6218\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u6218\u4e89\u662f\u5728\u6c34\u67af\u7aed\u548c\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5f532016\u5e74\u548c2021\u5e74\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u3001\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u65af\u5766\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u6df1\u6df1\u4f24\u5bb3\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u6218\u4e89\u524a\u5f31\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"welcome-to-the-anthropocene\">\u6b22\u8fce\u6765\u5230 \"\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\"\u3002<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6070\u597d\uff0c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u5316\u548c\u8d85\u7ea7\u5e72\u65f1\u5468\u671f\u7684\u500d\u589e\u662f\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u53c2\u6570\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5f3a\u70c8\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u884c\u661f\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u662f\u73b0\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u5f62\u5f0f\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u65f6\u671f\u88ab\u5b9a\u6027\u4e3a \"\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u65f6\u4ee3\"\u3002(J.R McNeil, Peter Engelke,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.hup.harvard.edu\/catalog.php?isbn=9780674545038\">\u5927\u52a0\u901f\uff0c1945\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u73af\u5883\u53f2<\/a>, <em>Belknap\u51fa\u7248\u793e<\/em>, 2016).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/xhrP1hZuW0M?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e2d\u4e1c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b9e\u5b9e\u5728\u5728\u5730\u88ab \"\u6d78\u6ce1 \"\u5728\u65b0\u7684\u3001\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u6761\u4ef6\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6761\u4ef6\u6b63\u5728\u56f4\u56f0\u7740\u4ed6\u4eec\u3002(Jean-Michel Valantin \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/31\/%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e5%af%b9%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%ae%89%e5%85%a8%e7%9a%84%e5%a8%81%e8%83%81\/\">\u8d85\u7ea7\u56f4\u56f0\u3002\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168<\/a>\",&nbsp;<em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>\uff0c2014\u5e743\u670831\u65e5\uff0c\u548c\u514b\u83b1\u592b-\u6c49\u5bc6\u5c14\u987f\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.allenandunwin.com\/browse\/books\/general-books\/popular-science\/Defiant-Earth-Clive-Hamilton-9781760295967\">\u8511\u89c6\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u4e2d\u4eba\u7c7b\u7684\u547d\u8fd0<\/a>, 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"degradation-and-despair\">\u9000\u5316\u4e0e\u7edd\u671b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6c34\u5faa\u73af\u4e2d\u65ad\u7684\u540e\u679c\u6b63\u5728\u6076\u5316\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u5229\u7528\u5176\u4e0a\u6e38\u7684\u6c34\u575d\u964d\u4f4e\u5e95\u683c\u91cc\u65af\u6cb3\u548c\u5e7c\u53d1\u62c9\u5e95\u6cb3\u7684\u4e0b\u6e38\u6d41\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u8868\u9762\u7684\u6cb3\u6d41\u7f51\u7edc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/29\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-3-state-of-play-part-ii\/\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/11\/04\/facing-the-fog-of-war-in-syria-the-tragedy-of-kurdistan-update-july-nov-2013\/\">\u9762\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u3002\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u65af\u5766\u7684\u60b2\u5267<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/02\/10\/creating-rojava\/\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u548c\u7f57\u8d3e\u74e6\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/11\/25\/portal-islamic-state-war\/\">\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u5bb6\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u95e8\u6237<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2015\/11\/02\/at-war-against-the-islamic-state-from-syria-to-the-region\/\">\u5bf9\u6297\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89--\u4ece\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5230\u5730\u533a<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/02\/the-battle-of-raqqa-the-kurds-and-turkey\/\">\u62c9\u5361\u4e4b\u6218\u3001\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/22\/the-kurds-in-syria-state-building-new-model-and-war\/\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba--\u5efa\u56fd\u3001\u65b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u6218\u4e89<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/06\/12\/the-middle-east-powder-keg-and-the-great-battle-for-raqqa\/\">\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u706b\u836f\u6876\u548c\u62c9\u5361\u7684\u4f1f\u5927\u6218\u5f79<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c34\u6e90\u4fdd\u7559\u662f\u5b89\u5361\u62c9\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5bf9\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u81ea2003\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5165\u4fb5\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u548c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u5730\u533a\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\u4e25\u91cd\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u63a8\u52a8\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u5371\u673a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5730\u533a\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6761\u4ef6\u6b63\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u5411\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6761\u4ef6\u7684\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u8fc7\u6e21\uff08Jean-Michel Valantin\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/02\/11\/%e6%b0%94%e5%80%99%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96-%e6%88%91%e4%bb%ac%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8d%e6%96%ad%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e5%9c%b0%e7%90%83%e4%b8%8a%e6%98%af%e7%94%9f%e5%ad%98%e8%bf%98%e6%98%af%e6%ad%bb%e4%ba%a1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u751f\u5b58\u8fd8\u662f\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1f<\/a>\", <em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>, 2019\u5e742\u670811\u65e5\u548c\u54c8\u62c9\u5c14\u5fb7-\u97e6\u5c14\u7b56\u3002 <em>\u6c14\u5019\u6218\u4e89\uff1a\u4eba\u4eec\u572821\u4e16\u7eaa\u5c06\u56e0\u4ec0\u4e48\u800c\u88ab\u6740\u5bb3\uff1f<sup>\u01de\u01de\u01de<\/sup> \u4e16\u7eaa\u3002<\/em> 2015).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ec5\u5728\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u5730\u533a\uff08KRI\uff09\uff0c600\u4e07\u4eba\u53e3\u4e2d\u5c31\u6709100\u4e07\u4eba\u662f1991\u5e74\u8428\u8fbe\u59c6-\u4faf\u8d5b\u56e0\u7684\u5316\u5b66\u88ad\u51fb\u548c2014\u5e74ISIS\u5a01\u80c1\u671f\u95f4\u9003\u79bb\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u7684\u96be\u6c11\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u67094,000\u81f38,000\u4eba\u662f\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u8fb9\u754c\u6295\u5c04\u768417,000\u540d\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ed6\u4eec\u8bd5\u56fe\u901a\u8fc7\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9003\u5f80\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u6446\u8131\u98a0\u8986\u4ed6\u4eec\u751f\u5b58\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6761\u4ef6\u3002(Benas Gerdziunas, \"\u91c7\u8bbf\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euractiv.com\/section\/justice-home-affairs\/interview\/interview-why-did-so-many-kurds-go-to-belarus\/\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u53bb\u4e86\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff1f<\/a>\"\uff0cEuractiv\uff0c2022\u5e741\u67084\u65e5\u548cBekir Aydogan\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/amwaj.media\/article\/why-iraqi-kurds-seek-to-take-a-refuge-in-europe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u5728\u6b27\u6d32\u5bfb\u6c42\u5e87\u62a4\uff1f<\/a>\"\uff0cAmjjaj Media\uff0c2021\u5e7411\u670823\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hybridation-of-hybrid-war\">\u6df7\u5408\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6df7\u5408\u5316<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hybrid-offensive\">\u6df7\u5408\u578b\u653b\u52bf<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u5c06\u4e2d\u4e1c\u96be\u6c11\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6b66\u5668\u6765\u5bf9\u4ed8\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u6218\u7565\u548c\u5730\u7403\u53d8\u5316\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6218\u7565\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u6b27\u76df\u7684 \"\u6df7\u5408\u653b\u52bf\"\u3002<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b0\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u7565\u6027\u5730\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u519b\u4e8b\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5982\u5916\u4ea4\u3001\u6cd5\u5f8b\u3001\u5a92\u4f53\u3001\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6765 \"\u5ef6\u7eed\u653f\u6cbb\"......\u5728\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6848\u4f8b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u6df7\u5408\u4f7f\u7528\u793e\u4f1a\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u96be\u6c11\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3-\u51fa\u53e3\uff08\u52b3\u4f26\u65af-\u5f17\u91cc\u5fb7\u66fc\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.penguin.com.au\/books\/the-future-of-war-9780141975603\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff1a\u4e00\u90e8\u5386\u53f2\u3002<\/a> 2017).\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd \"\u6df7\u5408 \"\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u6765\u5f15\u53d1\u6b27\u76df\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u548c\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"weaponizing-despair-and-migration\">\u5c06\u7edd\u671b\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u6b66\u5668\u5316<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6218\u7565\u7684\u6548\u7387\u5c31\u5728\u4e8e\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u4fe1\u53f7\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5730\u533a\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u540e\u679c\u3002\u6b63\u662f\u7531\u4e8e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb-\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u7684\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u5728Covid-19\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u4e2d\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53d8\u5f97\u8db3\u591f\u7edd\u671b\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684 \"\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u96be\u6c11\"\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6210\u4e3a\u8be5\u653f\u6743\u7784\u51c6\u6b27\u76df\u8fb9\u754c\u7684 \"\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u79fb\u6c11\u6b66\u5668 \"\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff08Kelly M. Greenhill, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/calhoun.nps.edu\/handle\/10945\/11515\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u8fc1\u79fb\u7684\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u80c1\u8feb\u624b\u6bb5\u7684\u5f3a\u8feb\u8fc1\u79fb<\/a>\", <em>\u6218\u7565\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b<\/em>\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"hybridizing-strategy-and-the-anthropocene\">\u6df7\u5408\u6218\u7565\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6218\u4e89\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u707e\u96be\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u540e\u679c\uff0c\u660e\u65af\u514b\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u5c55\u5176\u653b\u52bf\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u81ea\u5df1\u7684 \"\u6df7\u5408\u653b\u52bf \"\u4e0e \"\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16 \"\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u56fa\u6709\u6761\u4ef6 \"\u6df7\u5408 \"\u8d77\u6765\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u9700\u8981\u770b\u770b\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0e\u76ee\u524d\u56f4\u7ed5\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u5371\u673a\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6d89\u53ca\u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u548c\u5317\u7ea6\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6d89\u53ca\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(\u8ba9-\u591a\u7c73\u5c3c\u514b-\u62c9\u6c83\u74e6-\u5361\u5229\uff08Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\uff09\u7684\u827a\u672f\u6307\u5bfc\uff09 \u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fb9\u5883\uff1a\u884c\u52a8\u533a \u81ea 2021 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u8d77\uff0c\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u79fb\u6c11\u8fd0\u9001\u5230\u6ce2\u5170\u3001\u62c9\u8131\u7ef4\u4e9a\u548c\u7acb\u9676\u5b9b\u8fb9\u5883\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u6765\u81ea\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u3001\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u3001\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u65af\u5766\u3001\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u3001\u963f\u5c14\u53ca\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u6469\u6d1b\u54e5\u3001\u521a\u679c\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u3001\u5580\u9ea6\u9686\u548c\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\uff08Yuras Karmanau\uff0c\"\u89e3\u8bf4\u5458\uff1a\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af-\u6ce2\u5170\u8fb9\u5883\u5371\u673a\u7684\u80cc\u540e\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\"\uff0c... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/02\/07\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u767d\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e0e\u79fb\u6c11\u6b66\u5668\u5316--\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e16\u6218\u4e89\uff081\uff09\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":38577,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1722,2860],"tags":[1616,1789,2078,2560,2058,446],"class_list":["post-32428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environmental-geostrategy","category-featured","tag-belarus","tag-featured","tag-migrants","tag-open-access","tag-syria-issues","tag-turkey","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Belarus and the Weaponization of Migration \u2013 Anthropocene Wars (1) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/02\/07\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus and the Weaponization of Migration \u2013 Anthropocene Wars (1) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Art direction Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) Belarus borders: theatre of operations Since July 2021, the Belarusian government literally projects migrants to the borders of Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Those people come from Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, Kurdistan, Afghanistan, Algeria, Morocco, the Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Venezuela (Yuras Karmanau, \u201cExplainer: What\u2019s behind the Belarus-Poland border crisis ?\u201d, &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cBelarus and the Weaponization of Migration \u2013 Anthropocene Wars (1)\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/02\/07\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-02-07T12:44:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-02-19T18:07:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/migrants-belarus.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1536\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/07\\\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/07\\\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Jean-Michel Valantin (PhD Paris)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/b840ac3537c3f891b6e61a6e559775fe\"},\"headline\":\"Belarus and the Weaponization of Migration \u2013 Anthropocene Wars (1)\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-02-07T12:44:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-02-19T18:07:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/07\\\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1596,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/07\\\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/migrants-belarus.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Belarus\",\"featured\",\"migrants\",\"Open Access\",\"Syria issues\",\"Turkey\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Environmental Geostrategy\",\"Featured\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/07\\\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/07\\\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2022\\\/02\\\/07\\\/belarus-and-the-weaponization-of-migration-anthropocene-wars-1\\\/\",\"name\":\"Belarus and the Weaponization of Migration \u2013 Anthropocene Wars (1) &#8226; 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