{"id":35371,"date":"2022-09-19T12:32:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-19T10:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=35371"},"modified":"2022-09-21T09:02:10","modified_gmt":"2022-09-21T07:02:10","slug":"%e5%8f%a6%e7%b1%bb-%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%85%b0-%e4%bf%84%e7%bd%97%e6%96%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/09\/19\/alternative-red-scenario-war-ukraine-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e4b\u95f4\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u7ea2\u8272\u65b9\u6848"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(\u827a\u672f\u6307\u5bfc\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/%E2%9C%B8-jean-dominique-lavoix-carli-359958181\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2022\u5e749\u6708\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u53cd\u653b\u88ab\u8d5e\u8a89\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u603b\u7edf\u6c83\u6d1b\u57fa\u7c73\u5c14-\u6cfd\u4f26\u65af\u57fa\u611f\u8c22 \"\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u82f1\u96c4\"\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f7f8000\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u571f\u5730\u572822\u5e749\u670814\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d \"\u5728\u4e1c\u90e8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5357\u90e8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8d6b\u5c14\u677e\u5dde \"\u5f97\u5230\u4e86 \"\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u89e3\u653e\"\uff0c\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-62884668\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BBC\u65b0\u95fb<\/a>\uff0c22\u5e749\u670812\u65e5\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/europe\/live-news\/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-14-22\/h_1d7104e74f7e10181a28fb8e49fd9f0a?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_msn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6709\u7ebf\u7535\u89c6\u65b0\u95fb\u7f51<\/a>\uff0c22\u5e749\u670814\u65e5\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u4e54-\u62dc\u767b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b98\u5458\u4ee5\u53ca\u5fb7\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u957f\u514b\u91cc\u65af\u8482\u5a1c-\u5170\u5e03\u96f7\u5e0c\u7279\u9996\u5148\u544a\u8beb\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u8981\u6709 \"\u8fc7\u65e9\u80dc\u5229\"\u3001\"\u6218\u4e89\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9 \"\u7684\u611f\u89c9\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4ed6\u4eec\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86\u9886\u571f\u6536\u76ca\uff08\u6d1b\u4e3d\u5854-\u5df4\u5c14\u591a\u548c\u827e\u4f26-\u514b\u5c3c\u514b\u8fc8\u5c14\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-ukraine-putin-nato-biden-technology-f16a66971fa9743fd3bfd6e15c95f501\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u907f\u514d\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u6597\u8fdb\u5c55\u4e2d\u8df3\u80dc\u5229\u821e<\/a>\"\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u793e\uff0c9\u670813\u65e522\u65e5\uff1b\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/reut.rs\/3dfyJJG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5fb7\u56fd\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5224\u65ad\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u53cd\u653b\u662f\u5426\u662f\u8f6c\u6298\u70b9\u4e3a\u65f6\u5c1a\u65e9<\/a>\"\uff0c9\u670814\u65e522\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c9\u670818\u65e5\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u603b\u7edf\u5728\u63a5\u53d7\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u663e\u5f97\u81ea\u4fe1\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\uff1a\"\u4ed6\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u51fb\u8d25\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\"\uff08\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/ukrainians-search-grave-site-relatives-after-russians-driven-out-2022-09-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u79f0\u519b\u961f\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u5965\u65af\u57fa\u5c14\u6cb3\uff0c\u6cfd\u4f26\u65af\u57fa\u53d1\u8a93\u4e0d\u4f1a\u653e\u677e\u8b66\u60d5<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670819\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u524d\u9762\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">\u610f\u5927\u5229LA7\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\u91cd\u70b9\u62a5\u9053\u4e86RTAS\u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u5b9e\u529b<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL - \u91d1\u8272\u7a79\u9876\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u6280\u672f\u524d\u6cbf<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">\u6ce8\u610f - \u4e5f\u95e8\u548c\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u9996\u5148\u7b80\u8981\u5730\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u770b\u4e00\u5957\u5168\u9762\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5728\u4e00\u573a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u88ab\u4f7f\u7528\u5ba3\u4f20\u6216psyops\u800c\u9000\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u66f4\u52a0\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u9752\u7750\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u80dc\u5229\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u662f\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4e0e\u6700\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u628a\u5b83\u79f0\u4e3a \"\u7ea2\u8272\u65b9\u6848\"\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u662f <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/about-2\/#redteam\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7ea2\u961f<\/a> (\u4ece\u654c\u4eba\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u51fa\u53d1)\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u63d0\u51fa\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u60c5\u666f\u53d9\u8ff0\uff08\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\uff09\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5730\u56fe\u8ffd\u8e2a\u4e24\u4f4d\u4e3b\u89d2\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5730\u5f62\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u5e76\u6bcf\u5929\u5efa\u7acb\u7531 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/ukraine-conflict-updates\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6218\u4e89\u7814\u7a76\u5b66\u9662<\/a>.\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5173\u952e\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u6309\u7167\u6218\u4e89\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u89e3\u91ca\u8bf4\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5bf9\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\u7684\u9700\u6c42<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6709\u7528\u7684\u548c\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u4e2d\u6784\u6210\u7684<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bb8\u591a\u8bc4\u8bba\u5bb6\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5173\u6ce8\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u573a\u666f\uff0c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u53cd\u653b\u4e0e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684 \"\u5931\u8d25\"\u3001\"\u6e83\u8d25\"\u3001\"\u707e\u96be\"\u3001\"\u74e6\u89e3 \"\u7b49\u9f50\u5934\u5e76\u8fdb\u3002\u8fd9\u7684\u786e\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u5927\u81f4\u5982\u4e0b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-style-default is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><em>\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u53cd\u653b\u9884\u793a\u7740\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u961f\u5373\u5c06\u83b7\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u519b\u961f\u5185\u90e8\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e00\u8fde\u4e32\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u88ab\u5f81\u670d\u3002<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff08\u89c1 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/02\/22\/%e4%b8%80%e4%b8%aa%e7%ae%80%e7%9f%ad%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e4%ba%8e%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e7%9a%84%e9%97%ae%e9%a2%98\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898<\/a> \u573a\u666f\uff09\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3001\u4e0e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u76f8\u53cd\u7684\u6216\u4e0d\u8ba8\u4eba\u559c\u6b22\u7684\u573a\u666f\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6848\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u5141\u8bb8\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u3001\u771f\u6b63\u53cd\u51fb\u654c\u4eba\u5e76\u6700\u7ec8\u53d6\u5f97\u80dc\u5229\u548c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u573a\u666f\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0e\u573a\u666f\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u53d9\u8ff0\u76f8\u5206\u79bb\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u4e00\u7ec4\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53d8\u91cf\u65e2\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u5236\u4f5c\u53d9\u8ff0\uff0c\u53c8\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e3a\u8fd9\u5957\u65b9\u6848\u521b\u9020\u4e00\u4e2a\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u6bd4\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u4e00\u5957\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u5fc5\u987b\u8003\u8651\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u7136\u540e\u6839\u636e\u73b0\u5b9e\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5bf9\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u3001\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6f14\u5316\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u60c5\u666f\u53d8\u5f97\u6700\u6709\u7528\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5f15\u5bfc\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u80fd\u591f\u8fbe\u5230\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5d07\u9ad8\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9996\u5148\u9700\u8981\u6709\u4e00\u5957\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u51e0\u4e2a\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u4fe1\u5ff5\u548c\u613f\u671b\u7684\u6109\u5feb\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u514b\u670d\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6e83\u8d25\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u82f1\u96c4\u7684\u8fc5\u901f\u80dc\u5229\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53d9\u8ff0\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u662f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u884c\u52a8\uff08I\/Os-psyops\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u89c1Helene Lavoix, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/05\/24\/%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af%e6%88%98%e5%92%8c%e4%b9%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%85%b0%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4fe1\u606f\u6218\u4e0e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240<\/em>2022\u5e745\u670824\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u5b83\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65afI\/O\u548c\u6b3a\u9a97\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\"\"\u7684\u9ad8\u624b\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/05\/24\/%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af%e6%88%98%e5%92%8c%e4%b9%8c%e5%85%8b%e5%85%b0%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\/#reflexivecontrol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u53cd\u5c04\u6027\u63a7\u5236<\/a>\"\uff08refleksivnoe upravlenie \/ \u0440\u0435\u0444\u043b\u0435\u043a\u0441\u0438\u0432\u043d\u043e\u0433\u043e \u0443\u043f\u0440\u0430\u0432\u043b\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531\u4e8e\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4fe1\u606f\u662f\u9000\u5316\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5728\u6863\u6848\u88ab\u6253\u5f00\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u80fd\u80af\u5b9a\u5730\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u5f53\u5730\u771f\u6b63\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5373\u6839\u636e\u6848\u4f8b\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u572830\u5e74\u300160\u5e74\u6216100\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4f9d\u9760\u60c5\u666f\u5047\u8bbe\u3002\u5047\u8bbe\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u51fa\u5047\u8bbe\u5e76\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6216\u8d28\u91cf\u53ef\u7591\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u662f\u5f88\u5173\u952e\u7684\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u6269\u5c55\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e0d\u65b9\u4fbf\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u8df3\u51fa\u6846\u6846\u601d\u8003\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ea2\u8272\u65b9\u6848--\u4e3b\u8981\u5047\u8bbe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u9886\u571f\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53d1\u8d77 \"\u7279\u522b\u884c\u52a8 \"\u65f6\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9886\u571f\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u89e3\u653e\u548c\u4fdd\u62a4\u987f\u5df4\u65af\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5206\u79bb\u4e3b\u4e49\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u7684\u9886\u571f\uff1a\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\uff08DPR\uff09\u548c\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\uff08LPR\uff09(<a href=\"http:\/\/en.kremlin.ru\/events\/president\/news\/67843\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8054\u90a6\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u8bb2\u8bdd<\/a>2022\u5e742\u670824\u65e506:00\uff0c\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u6797\u5bab\uff0c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u76ee\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ece\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u540c\u4e00\u8bb2\u8bdd\u4e2d\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4fdd\u62a4\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4e3a\u8be5\u534a\u5c9b\u521b\u9020\u6218\u7565\u7eb5\u6df1\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u5176\u514d\u53d7\u4efb\u4f55\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Nord-Krim-Kanal.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Nord-Krim-Kanal.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35427\" width=\"400\" height=\"235\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Nord-Krim-Kanal.jpg 800w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Nord-Krim-Kanal-500x294.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Nord-Krim-Kanal-768x451.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Nord-Krim-Kanal-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Nord-Krim-Kanal-250x147.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>\u5317\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u8fd0\u6cb3\u3002\u5c06\u5361\u970d\u592b\u5361\u6c34\u5e93\u7684\u767b\u666e\u5c14\u6cb3\u4e0e\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u4e1c\u90e8\u8fde\u63a5\u8d77\u6765 - <a href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Nord-Krim-Kanal.png\">\u88f4\u5229\u8d6b\u7279<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5171\u4eab\u8d44\u6e90<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2\u670824\u65e5\uff0c\u4fc4\u519b\u5728\u6218\u4e89\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u65f6\u5c31\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u7a81\u51fa\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002\u5b83\u6062\u590d\u4e86\u5317\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u8fd0\u6cb3\u7684\u6c34\u6d41\u91cf(<em>\u76ae\u592b\u5c3c\u5947\u8bfa-\u514b\u91cc\u59c6\u65af\u57fa\u533a<\/em>\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u7b2c\u8042\u4f2f\u6cb3\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u4e8e2014\u5e74\u88ab\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5207\u65ad\u4e86(\u300a\u4e16\u754c\u62a5\u300b)\u3002<em>\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/em>, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/russian-forces-unblock-water-flow-canal-annexed-crimea-moscow-says-2022-02-24\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u79f0\u4fc4\u519b\u758f\u901a\u4e86\u901a\u5f80\u88ab\u541e\u5e76\u7684\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u7684\u8fd0\u6cb3\u6c34\u6d41<\/a>\uff0c\"2022\u5e742\u670824\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u571f\u76ee\u6807\u663e\u793a\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u3002\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u6218\u7565\u7eb5\u6df1\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u6839\u636e\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u5f20\u5730\u56fe\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-606x941.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35414\" width=\"455\" height=\"706\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-606x941.jpeg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-193x300.jpeg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-768x1193.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-989x1536.jpeg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-8x12.jpeg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-250x388.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 455px) 100vw, 455px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>2022\u5e74\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6218\u4e89--\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u76ee\u6807--\u7ea2\u8272\u65b9\u6848\uff08\u4ee5ISW\u5730\u56fe\u4e3a\u80cc\u666f\uff09\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u662f\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u65e2\u4e0d\u75af\u4e5f\u4e0d\u50bb\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u5168\u8131\u79bb\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5173\u4e8e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u5916\u53f7\u548c\u6beb\u65e0\u6839\u636e\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65ad\u8a00\u3002\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u4e0d\u4f1a\u611f\u5230\u60ca\u8bb6\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u4efb\u4f55\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u548c\u8bc4\u4f30\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u3002\u884c\u52a8\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u6309\u8ba1\u5212\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u8ff7\u96fe\u5728\u8fd0\u4f5c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5047\u8bbe\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u539f\u5219\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u5148\u524d\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u7406\u89e3\u6846\u67b6\u65f6\u65e0\u6cd5\u89e3\u91ca\u6216\u7406\u89e3\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6700\u521d\u7684\u601d\u8def\u662f\u6709\u7f3a\u9677\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ea2\u8272\u573a\u666f--\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5 - 2022\u5e742\u670824\u65e5\u81f32022\u5e743\u670829\u65e5<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u5f81\u670d\u5357\u65b9\uff08\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u548c\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u5dde\u4ee5\u5916\uff09\u521b\u9020\u6761\u4ef6<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u9886\u571f\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5728\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u3001\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u3001\u8d6b\u5c14\u677e\u548c\u624e\u6ce2\u7f57\u70ed\u5dde\u5357\u90e8\u4ee5\u5916\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6240\u6709\u884c\u52a8\u90fd\u662f \"\u8bf1\u9975 \"\u884c\u52a8\u6216 \"\u8c08\u5224 \"\u884c\u52a8\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5c06\u654c\u4eba\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u529b\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u975e\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u3001\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u865a\u5047\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u4e0a\u3002\u5728\u6700\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6536\u76ca\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5c06\u5728\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u4ea4\u6362\uff0c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6784\u6210\u771f\u6b63\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u6216\u53cd\u5bf9\u5176\u4ed6\u5173\u952e\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5982\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u4e2d\u7acb\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery alignwide has-nested-images columns-5 is-style-default wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1553\" data-id=\"35414\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-193x300.jpeg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-606x941.jpeg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-768x1193.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-989x1536.jpeg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-8x12.jpeg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-250x388.jpeg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35385\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35385\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-scaled.jpg 1612w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-189x300.jpg 189w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-592x941.jpg 592w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-768x1220.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-967x1536.jpg 967w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-1289x2048.jpg 1289w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-1568x2490.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-1320x2096.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-250x397.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/UkraineCoTFeb242022-1038x1649.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35386\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35386\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-scaled.jpg 1612w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-189x300.jpg 189w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-592x941.jpg 592w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-768x1220.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-967x1536.jpg 967w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-1289x2048.jpg 1289w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-1568x2490.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-1320x2096.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-250x397.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb262022-1038x1649.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1612\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35406\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35406\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-scaled.jpg 1612w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-189x300.jpg 189w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-592x941.jpg 592w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-768x1220.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-967x1536.jpg 967w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-1289x2048.jpg 1289w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-1568x2490.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-1320x2096.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-250x397.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTFeb282022_1-1-1038x1649.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1612px) 100vw, 1612px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1647\" data-id=\"35416\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0-182x300.jpg 182w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0-571x941.jpg 571w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0-768x1265.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0-933x1536.jpg 933w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0-7x12.jpg 7w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMarch292022_0-250x412.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u4e8e3\u670829\u65e5\u7ed3\u675f\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u5728\u4f0a\u65af\u5766\u5e03\u5c14\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u6846\u67b6\u5185\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u5ba3\u5e03 \"\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u51cf\u5c11\u57fa\u8f85\u548c\u5207\u5c14\u5c3c\u6208\u592b\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u519b\u4e8b\u6d3b\u52a8\"\uff0c\u4ee5 \"\u589e\u52a0\u76f8\u4e92\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fbf\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u4e2d\u4e0e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u8fbe\u6210\u5e76\u7b7e\u7f72\u548c\u5e73\u534f\u8bae\"(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/russia-pledges-to-scale-down-military-activity-near-kyiv-chernihiv-as-it-happened\/a-61286047\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73<\/a>; <em><a href=\"https:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2022\/03\/russia-takes-a-fateful-step-back-at-turkey-talks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e9a\u6d32\u65f6\u62a5<\/a><\/em> 3\u670829\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5c31\u5176\u9886\u571f\u76ee\u6807\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u65b9\u9762\u901a\u8fc7\u5360\u9886\u8d6b\u5c14\u677e\u5dde\u548c\u624e\u6ce2\u7f57\u70ed\u5dde\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5730\u4e3a\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6218\u7565\u7eb5\u6df1\u3002\u5b83\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u4e0e\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u4ea4\u754c\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ece\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u662f\u4e0e\u671d\u9c9c\u534a\u5c9b\u7684\u4ea4\u754c\u3002\u5b83\u4f7f\u540e\u8005\u6709\u4e86\u4e0e\u5927\u6d77\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u5f81\u670d\u4e86\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns alignwide is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-8f761849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u897f\u90e8\u5730\u533a\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u53d6\u5f97\u4efb\u4f55\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u4ecd\u7136\u5f3a\u70c8\u5730\u638c\u63e1\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u624b\u4e2d\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c2015\u5e74\u7684 \"\u63a5\u89e6\u7ebf \"\u5145\u5f53\u4e86\u51c6\u8fb9\u754c\uff0c\u4e00\u573a\u6d88\u8017\u6218\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u5f00\u59cb\u5e76\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u9886\u571f\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u884c\u52a8--\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u57fa\u8f85\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u897f\u65b9\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a--\u90fd\u662f\u6b21\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5fc3\u7406\u6218\u672f\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u653e\u5f03\uff0c\u4ee5\u5de9\u56fa\u4f5c\u4e3a\u76ee\u6807\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u6240\u5360\u9886\u571f\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\">\n<p class=\"is-style-default wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.8em\">\"\u63a5\u89e6\u7ebf \"\u6216 \"\u63a5\u89e6\u7ebf\"\u3002\"\u5c06\u5c45\u4f4f\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4e1c\u90e8\u653f\u5e9c\u63a7\u5236\u533a\uff08GCA\uff09\u548c\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u63a7\u5236\u533a\uff08NGCA\uff09\u7684\u53d7\u51b2\u7a81\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4eba\u5206\u9694\u5f00\u6765\u7684\u4e00\u7247\u571f\u5730\"\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/reports.unocha.org\/en\/country\/ukraine\/card\/0H1uOW98Ca\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">UNOCHA<\/a>).\u5b83\u8d2f\u7a7f\u4e86\u5927\u7ea6420\u516c\u91cc\u3002\u57282015\u5e74\u548c2022\u5e742\u6708\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u5b83\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u79fb\u52a8\uff08ICG, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crisisgroup.org\/content\/conflict-ukraines-donbas-visual-explainer\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u987f\u5df4\u65af\u5730\u533a\u7684\u51b2\u7a81<\/a>).\u5b9a\u4e49\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/peacemaker.un.org\/sites\/peacemaker.un.org\/files\/UA_150212_MinskAgreement_en.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6267\u884c\u660e\u65af\u514b\u534f\u8bae\u7684\u4e00\u63fd\u5b50\u63aa\u65bd<\/a>, 2015\u5e742\u670812\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2022\u5e744\u67081\u65e5\uff0c\u5e03\u5361\u548c\u57fa\u8f85\u5468\u8fb9\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u5927\u5c60\u6740\u968f\u5373\u88ab\u62ab\u9732\uff0c\u5f15\u8d77\u4e86\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6124\u6012\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u827e\u7565\u7279-\u5e0c\u91d1\u65af\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bellingcat.com\/news\/2022\/04\/04\/russias-bucha-facts-versus-the-evidence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u5e03\u5361 \"\u4e8b\u5b9e \"\u4e0e\u8bc1\u636e\u7684\u5bf9\u6bd4<\/a>\u201c, <em>Bellingcat<\/em>\u8c08\u5224\u505c\u6b62\u4e86\u3002\uff09\u5c3d\u7ba1\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6700\u521d\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u8c08\u5224\u7ee7\u7eed\u8fdb\u884c\uff0c\u4f46\u8c08\u5224\u8fd8\u662f\u505c\u6b62\u4e86(<em>\u8428\u5df4\u8d6b\u65e5\u62a5<\/em>, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailysabah.com\/politics\/diplomacy\/turkey-expects-more-russia-ukraine-peace-talks-fm-cavusoglu-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u571f\u8033\u5176\u603b\u7406\u6070\u6b66\u4ec0\u5965\u5362\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u571f\u8033\u5176\u671f\u5f85\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u4fc4\u4e4c\u548c\u8c08<\/a>\"\uff0c4\u67087\u65e522\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9636\u6bb5--2022\u5e744\u6708<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4ece\u5317\u90e8\u64a4\u519b\uff0c\u5c06\u90e8\u961f\u91cd\u65b0\u90e8\u7f72\u5230\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u9886\u571f\u76ee\u6807\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6f5c\u5728\u7684 \"\u8bf1\u9975\u533a\"\u3002<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6574\u4e2a4\u6708\uff0c\u4fc4\u519b\u59823\u6708\u5e95\u6240\u8bf4\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u4ece\u6240\u6709\u5317\u65b9\u9886\u571f\u64a4\u51fa\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u9886\u571f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u91cd\u65b0\u90e8\u7f72\u4e86\u90e8\u961f\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\u5de9\u56fa\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f81\u670d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u78e8\u5408\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f81\u670d\u6216\u89e3\u653eLPR\u7684\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u5dde\u548cDPR\u7684\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u9886\u571f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u552f\u4e00\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u9886\u571f\u662f\u5728\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a \"\u8bf1\u9975\"\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u4fc4\u65b9\u4e0d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5730\u533a\u7275\u5236\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u961f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u4ece\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7f13\u6162\u64a4\u9000\u5c31\u662f\u4ece\u90a3\u65f6\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery alignwide has-nested-images columns-5 is-style-default wp-block-gallery-2 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1553\" data-id=\"35414\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-193x300.jpeg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-606x941.jpeg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-768x1193.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-989x1536.jpeg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-8x12.jpeg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-250x388.jpeg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1648\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35402\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-scaled.jpg 1648w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-193x300.jpg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-606x941.jpg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-768x1193.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-989x1536.jpg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-1319x2048.jpg 1319w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-1568x2435.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-1320x2050.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-250x388.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril32022-1038x1612.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1648px) 100vw, 1648px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1648\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35404\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-scaled.jpg 1648w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-193x300.jpg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-606x941.jpg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-768x1193.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-989x1536.jpg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-1319x2048.jpg 1319w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-1568x2435.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-1320x2050.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-250x388.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril52022-1038x1612.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1648px) 100vw, 1648px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1648\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35401\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-scaled.jpg 1648w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-193x300.jpg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-606x941.jpg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-768x1193.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-989x1536.jpg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-1319x2048.jpg 1319w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-1568x2435.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-1320x2050.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-250x388.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril82022-1038x1612.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1648px) 100vw, 1648px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35380\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTApril232022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u9636\u6bb5--2022\u5e745\u6708\u81f3\u4eca<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6d88\u8017\u6218\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\/\u5f81\u670d\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u548c\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u5730\u4fdd\u7559\u5357\u90e8\u5404\u5dde\u3002<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7b2c3-1\u9636\u6bb5--\u5f81\u670d\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u5dde--\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u6d88\u8017\u6218<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u52302022\u5e746\u670825\u65e5\uff0c\u5728\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\uff0c\u585e\u7ef4\u7f57\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5b8c\u5168\u843d\u5165\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u519b\u961f\u624b\u4e2d\uff08ISW, <a href=\"https:\/\/isw.pub\/RusCampaignJune25\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c6\u670825\u65e5<\/a>).7\u67082\u65e5\uff0c\u83b1\u8f9b\u65af\u514b\u5e02\u7d27\u968f\u5176\u540e\uff0c7\u67083\u65e5\u5230\u8fbe\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u8fb9\u754c\uff08ISW, <a href=\"https:\/\/isw.pub\/RusCampaignJuly3\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c7\u67083\u65e5<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u6709\u53ef\u65e0\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c5e\u4e8e\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u5b83\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4eba\u624b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f46\u52305\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u90e8\u961f\u5df2\u7ecf\u6536\u590d\u4e86\u8fd9\u5757\u9886\u571f\u7684\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5728\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\uff08\u5e02\uff09\u7684\u4e1c\u90e8\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u524d\u7ebf\u4e0e\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u76f8\u6bd4\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u79fb\u52a8\u3002\u6d88\u8017\u6218\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u5728\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u6709\u76f8\u5f53\u591a\u7684\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5728\u8d6b\u5c14\u677e\u5dde\u548c\u624e\u6ce2\u7f57\u70ed\u5dde\u6709\u9632\u5fa1\u6027\u76ee\u6807\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5047\u8bbe\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4ece\u897f\u65b9\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u90a3\u91cc\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u65b0\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u60c5\u62a5\u548c\u7279\u79cd\u90e8\u961f\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u968f\u540e\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u884c\u52a8\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u6539\u53d8\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5f62\u52bf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3b\u8981\u5bfb\u6c42\u5de9\u56fa\u5176\u5728\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u6536\u83b7\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u897f\u90e8\u5730\u533a\u663e\u7136\u4ecd\u7136\u987d\u56fa\u5730\u9065\u4e0d\u53ef\u53ca\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u5b83\u662f\u9700\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4e0b\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery alignwide has-nested-images columns-5 is-style-default wp-block-gallery-3 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1553\" data-id=\"35414\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-193x300.jpeg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-606x941.jpeg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-768x1193.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-989x1536.jpeg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-8x12.jpeg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-250x388.jpeg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35381\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35381\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay22022_0-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35382\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35382\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay032022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35383\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35383\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay082022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" 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https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay92022_0-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay92022_0-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay92022_0-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay92022_0-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay92022_0-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay92022_0-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35379\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35379\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTMay172022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35375\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune82022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35376\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35376\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJune142022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1412\" data-id=\"35418\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35418\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022-212x300.jpg 212w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022-666x941.jpg 666w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly32022-250x353.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u7b2c3-2\u9636\u6bb5--\u5f81\u670d\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\uff0c\u4fdd\u7559\u88ab\u593a\u8d70\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5e76\u7ed3\u675f\u6218\u4e89\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53c8\u662f\u53cd\u5c04\u6027\u7684\u63a7\u5236\uff1f<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5fc5\u987b\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u6765\u5f81\u670d\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u514b\u670d\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u7684\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u9632\u5fa1\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u8fd8\u5fc5\u987b\u4fdd\u7559\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\uff0c\u5373\u4e0e\u5b83\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u76ee\u6807\u76f8\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u88ab\u5f81\u670d\u7684\u9886\u571f\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u4e5f\u610f\u5473\u7740\u53cd\u51fb\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u57288\u670829\u65e522\u65e5\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u53cd\u653b\uff0c\u4f46\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u66f4\u65e9\uff08\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/ukraine-says-long-anticipated-southern-offensive-has-begun-2022-08-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u79f0\u671f\u5f85\u5df2\u4e45\u7684\u5357\u90e8\u653b\u52bf\u5df2\u7ecf\u5f00\u59cb<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e748\u670829\u65e5\uff0cOleksiy Yarmolenko\uff0cTetyana Lohvynenko\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/babel.ua\/en\/texts\/82859-the-russian-army-sacrificed-a-massive-offensive-in-donbas-to-strengthen-its-position-in-the-south-we-analyze-the-situation-at-the-front-on-the-170th-day-of-the-full-scale-invasion-with-maps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4fc4\u519b\u727a\u7272\u5728\u987f\u5df4\u65af\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u653b\u52bf\u4ee5\u52a0\u5f3a\u5176\u5728\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d<\/a>'\uff0c8\u670822\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u622a\u81f39\u670814\u65e5\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u961f\u5df2\u7ecf\u91cd\u65b0\u5f81\u670d\u4e86\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde8000\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u571f\u5730\uff08DW\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/ukraine-stabilizes-counteroffensive-gains-in-northeast\/av-63113310\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5728\u4e1c\u5317\u5730\u533a\u7a33\u5b9a\u53cd\u653b\u6210\u679c<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670814\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u961f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c03\u52a8\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u4eba\u5458\uff0c\u4ee5\u5de7\u5999\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u6765\u7a81\u51fb \"\u7531\u5206\u6563\u7684\u72ec\u7acb\u90e8\u961f\u52a0\u5f3a\u7684\u7b2c144\u6469\u6258\u5316\u5e08\u7684\u76f8\u5f53\u5c0f\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u90e8\u961f\"\uff08\u7c73\u6b47\u5c14-\u6208\u96c5\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com\/2022\/09\/1918-en-ukraine.html\">1918\u5e74\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\uff1f<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u57c3\u4f69\u7684\u58f0\u97f3\u300b\uff08La Voix de l'Ep\u00e9e<\/em>\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670811\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u4fc4\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u6ca1\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u6253\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\"\u9a7b\u624e\u5728Izium\u7684\u5927\u91cf\u4fc4\u56fd\u519b\u961f\u5411\u4e1c\u64a4\u9000\"\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002Izium\u88ab\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u91cd\u65b0\u593a\u53d6\uff08\u540c\u4e0a\uff09\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u5730\u56fe\uff0c\u88ab\u89e3\u653e\u7684\u9886\u571f\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u7ecf\u57289\u670812\u65e5\u7a33\u5b9a\u4e0b\u6765\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u52309\u670818\u65e5\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u7136\u800c\uff08\u89c1\u4e0b\u6587\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery alignwide has-nested-images columns-5 is-style-default wp-block-gallery-4 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1553\" data-id=\"35414\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine.jpeg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-193x300.jpeg 193w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-606x941.jpeg 606w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-768x1193.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-989x1536.jpeg 989w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-8x12.jpeg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/estimated-russian-aims-in-ukraine-250x388.jpeg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35377\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly92022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35378\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35378\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTJuly122022-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-scaled.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1813\" height=\"2560\" data-id=\"35372\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-scaled.jpg 1813w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-213x300.jpg 213w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-667x941.jpg 667w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-1088x1536.jpg 1088w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-1451x2048.jpg 1451w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-9x12.jpg 9w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-1568x2214.jpg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-1320x1864.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-250x353.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember102022-1-1038x1465.jpg 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1813px) 100vw, 1813px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1412\" data-id=\"35454\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35454\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022-212x300.jpg 212w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022-666x941.jpg 666w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember122022-250x353.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1412\" data-id=\"35452\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022-212x300.jpg 212w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022-666x941.jpg 666w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember132022-250x353.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1412\" data-id=\"35453\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35453\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022-212x300.jpg 212w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022-666x941.jpg 666w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCOTSeptember142022-250x353.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1412\" data-id=\"35476\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35476\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022-212x300.jpg 212w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022-666x941.jpg 666w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022-768x1084.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/DraftUkraineCoTSeptember182022-250x353.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022-.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1740\" data-id=\"35477\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022-.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35477\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022-.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022--172x300.jpg 172w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022--541x941.jpg 541w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022--768x1336.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022--883x1536.jpg 883w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022--7x12.jpg 7w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Kharkiv-Battle-Map-Draft-August-18-2022--250x435.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65e0\u8bba\u7528\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u8f9e\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5728\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u519b\u961f\u64a4\u79bb\u4ee5\u91cd\u65b0\u90e8\u7f72\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\uff08\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/mod_russia\/19719\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u56fd\u9632\u90e8\u7535\u62a5<\/a>)\u6216\u5931\u53bb\u9886\u571f\u7684\u7b80\u5355\u5931\u8d25(\u897f\u65b9\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u519b\u4e8b\u535a\u5ba2\u548c\u675c\u9a6c\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\uff0c\u5982ISW\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\"<a href=\"https:\/\/isw.pub\/RusCampaignSept13\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c9\u670813\u65e5<\/a>\"\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u5361\u5c14\u57fa\u592b\u7684\u9886\u571f\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u6218\u672f\u3001\u884c\u52a8\u548c\u6218\u7565\u7528\u9014\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e0d\u662f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u524d\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u6ca1\u6709\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u83b7\u5f97\u9886\u571f\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5982\u679c--\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7684 \"\u5982\u679c\"--\u6cbf\u5965\u65af\u57fa\u5c14\u6cb3\u6216\u6cbf\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u5dde\u8fb9\u754c\u5efa\u7acb\u65b0\u7684\u524d\u7ebf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5931\u53bb\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u5e76\u4e0d\u50cf\u8bc4\u8bba\u5bb6\uff08\u65e0\u8bba\u5176\u56fd\u7c4d\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\uff09\u6240\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u5173\u952e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af \"\u627f\u8ba4 \"\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u7684\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u88ab\u8a89\u4e3a\u65b0\u4e8b\u7269\uff08\u8be6\u89c1\u300a\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u6742\u5fd7\u300b\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/isw.pub\/RusCampaignSept13\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c9\u670813\u65e5<\/a>\"\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u90a3\u4e48\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5b83\u4e4b\u540e\u6ca1\u6709\u5728\u4e0e\u4e3b\u8981\u9886\u571f\u76ee\u6807\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\u7684\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u5176\u4ed6\u5931\u8d25\u6216\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u6709\u9274\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c9\u670810\u65e5\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u5dde\u6781\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u7684\u635f\u5931\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u91cd\u8981\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u4e4b\u540e\u8fd8\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u635f\u5931\u7684\u8bdd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u53cd\u5c04\u6027\u63a7\u5236\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u6218\u672f\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5e94\u5fd8\u8bb0\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5728\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u6539\u53d8\u8a00\u8f9e--\u5373\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u627f\u8ba4\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u7684\u5931\u8d25--\u800c\u4e14\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u9886\u571f\u635f\u5931\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4fe1\u606f\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7248\u672c\u7684 <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Operation_Fortitude\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u575a\u97e7\u884c\u52a8<\/a>\u5f53\u76df\u519b\u5728D\u65e5\u767b\u9646\u7684\u5730\u70b9\u4e0a\u6b3a\u9a97\u4e86\u5fb7\u56fd\u4eba\u3002\u5c31\u53cd\u5c04\u6027\u63a7\u5236\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u8c61\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u65b9\u5f0f\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u56fd\u51b3\u5b9a\u5bf9\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\u8fdb\u884c\u519b\u4e8b\u653b\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6b3a\u9a97\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u8fd9\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u519b\u4e8b\u4e13\u5bb6\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u4e13\u5bb6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4fc4\u519b\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d1\u73b0 \"\u5179\u7c73\u592b\u524d\u7ebf\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u88c5\u7532\u673a\u68b0\u5316\u65c5 \"\u611f\u5230\u7591\u60d1\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6709\u5404\u79cd\u60c5\u62a5\u80fd\u529b\uff08\u6208\u96c5\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com\/2022\/09\/1918-en-ukraine.html\">1918\u5e74\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\uff1f<\/a>\").\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u662f\u6307\u6325\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u6218\u672f\u8bc4\u4f30\u5931\u8d25\u548c\u6700\u9ad8\u5c42\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u5931\u8d25\uff08\u5982\u6208\u96c5\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com\/2022\/09\/1918-en-ukraine.html\">1918\u5e74\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\uff1f<\/a>\").\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89e3\u91ca\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u8bbe\u60f3\u5230\u7684\uff1a\u4f1a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u68c0\u6d4b\uff0c\u800c\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u505a\uff0c\u6545\u610f\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u522b\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5728\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u786e\u5b9e\u662f\u6b3a\u9a97\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u601d\u8003\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u5bf9\u4e0d\u9632\u5b88\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u5931\u53bb\u9886\u571f\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u5174\u8da3\uff1f\u7136\u540e\u627f\u8ba4\u5931\u8d25\uff1f\u8fd9\u80fd\u4e3a\u54ea\u4e9b\u76ee\u6807\u670d\u52a1\uff1f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u662f\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5c31\u627f\u8ba4\u6218\u8d25\u800c\u8a00\uff0cISW <a href=\"https:\/\/isw.pub\/RusCampaignSept13\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u7ec6\u8282<\/a> \u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6709\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u56fd\u5185\u653f\u6cbb\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u5e94\u8be5\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e9b\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4e0e\u771f\u6b63\u5c06\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u4eb2\u4fc4\u90e8\u961f\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4f4d\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u4e0a\u6709\u5173\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4e0e\u5c06\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u90e8\u961f\u4ece\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u4e0a\u51fb\u57ae\u6709\u5173\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0e\u521b\u9020\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u90e8\u961f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6709\u5173\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u60c5\u62a5\u90e8\u95e8\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u5de7\u5999\u5730\u5229\u7528\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u786e\u5b9e\u8bd5\u56fe\u5c06\u5176\u6218\u4e89\u52aa\u529b\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u5982\u679c \"\u53cd\u5c04\u6027\u63a7\u5236 \"\u884c\u52a8\u5728\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5c31\u4f1a\u9002\u5f97\u5176\u53cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\u4e5f\u9884\u793a\u7740\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u6240\u5360\u636e\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5173\u952e\u9635\u5730\u7684\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u800c\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u4ecd\u6709\u5f85\u653b\u514b\u3002\u5fc5\u987b\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u6761\u65b0\u7684\u6218\u7ebf\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4fdd\u62a4\u5362\u7518\u65af\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u9632\u7ebf\uff0c\u5373\u4ece\u4eb2\u4fc4\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u662f\u4fdd\u62a4LPR\u3002\u8fd9\u6761\u65b0\u7684\u6218\u7ebf\u53ef\u4ee5\u6cbf\u7740\u5965\u65af\u57fa\u5c14\u6cb3\uff0c\u4ee5\u6d1b\u52a0\u4e54\u592b\u5361-\u5fb7\u6c83\u91cc\u67e5\u7eb3-\u5e93\u6bd4\u626c\u65af\u514b-\u535a\u7f57\u624e-\u83b1\u66fc\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u52a0\u5165\u897f\u7ef4\u5c14\u65af\u57fa\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u6cb3\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u80fd\u591f\u7ee7\u7eed\u4f7f\u7528\u94c1\u8def\uff0c\u5e76\u4fdd\u62a4LPR\u7684 \"\u8fb9\u754c\"\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u52309\u670819\u65e522\u65e5\uff0c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u4e1c\u5cb8\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8bd5\u56fe\u51fb\u9000\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u519b\u961f\u65f6\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u4e3a\u4fdd\u6301\u8fd9\u4e00\u4f4d\u7f6e\u800c\u6218\u6597\uff08\u4f8b\u5982ISW, \"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/backgrounder\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-18\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u8fdb\u653b\u6027\u8fd0\u52a8\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0c9\u670818\u65e5<\/a>\"\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u6839\u636e\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u6b66\u88c5\u90e8\u961f\u548c\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u5b83\uff08\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"\"\uff09\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/ukrainians-search-grave-site-relatives-after-russians-driven-out-2022-09-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u79f0\u519b\u961f\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u5965\u65af\u57fa\u5c14\u6cb3\uff0c\u6cfd\u4f26\u65af\u57fa\u53d1\u8a93\u4e0d\u4f1a\u653e\u677e\u8b66\u60d5<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670819\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u88ab\u8bc1\u660e\u65e0\u6cd5\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u5b88\u4f4f\u8fd9\u6761\u65b0\u7684\u524d\u7ebf\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5982\u679c\u5b83\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5bf9\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5a01\u80c1\u5df2\u7ecf\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u524d\u7ebf\u540e\u9762\u5347\u7ea7\u66f4\u8fdc\u7684\u653b\u51fb\uff0c\u4ee5\u7834\u574f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u6b63\u59829\u6708\u4e0a\u65ec\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u6240\u8868\u660e\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u300a\u536b\u62a5\u300b\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/sep\/11\/russian-strikes-knock-out-power-and-water-in-ukraines-kharkiv-region\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6253\u51fb\u4f7f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u7535\u529b\u548c\u4f9b\u6c34\u4e2d\u65ad<\/a>\"\uff0c9\u670811\u65e5\uff09\uff0c\u6216\u4ee5\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002 <strong>\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5411\u6269\u5927\u6218\u4e89\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u8f6c\u53d8\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7c7b\u4f3c\u6218\u7565\u6765\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u653b\u51fb\u8fa9\u62a4\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u73b0\u5728\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u66f4\u8fdc\u7684\u6b66\u5668\u3002 <strong>\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5982\u60c5\u62a5<\/strong> <strong>\u7531\u5176\u76df\u53cb\u63d0\u4f9b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba<\/strong>\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u56fd \"\u96c7\u4f63\u5175 \"\u548c \"\u987e\u95ee\"\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e00\u65e6\u64a4\u9000\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u575a\u5b88\u65b0\u7684\u524d\u7ebf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u4f4d\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u4eb2\u4fc4\u90e8\u961f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u628a\u91cd\u70b9\u653e\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6807--\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u8fdb\u884c\u9632\u5fa1\uff0c\u8d6b\u5c14\u677e\u5dde\u7684\u7b2c\u8042\u4f2f\u6cb3\u53f3\u5cb8--\u5305\u62ec\u8d6b\u5c14\u677e--\u662f\u5357\u90e8\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u7126\u70b9\u9632\u7ebf\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9009\u62e9\u5bf9\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\u7684\u653b\u52bf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u57289\u6708\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5468\u5728\u5df4\u54c8\u59c6\u7279\u4ee5\u5357\u7684\u63a8\u8fdb\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u6240\u793a\u3002Spirne\u3001Adviivka\u548cMarinka\u5357\u90e8\u4e5f\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u6218\u6597\u3002\u4ece\u9762\u79ef\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u5c0f\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u524d\u8fdb\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u53ea\u53d1\u751f\u4e86\u4e0d\u5230\u4e00\u5468\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u5904\u4e8e\u4fe1\u53f7\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u9886\u57df\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-4 is-cropped is-style-default wp-block-gallery-5 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1581\" data-id=\"35449\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35449\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022-190x300.jpg 190w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022-595x941.jpg 595w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022-768x1214.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022-972x1536.jpg 972w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September092022-250x395.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1581\" data-id=\"35451\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35451\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022-190x300.jpg 190w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022-595x941.jpg 595w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022-768x1214.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022-972x1536.jpg 972w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-132022-250x395.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1581\" data-id=\"35450\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022-190x300.jpg 190w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022-595x941.jpg 595w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022-768x1214.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022-972x1536.jpg 972w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-142022-250x395.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"1581\" data-id=\"35478\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35478\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022-190x300.jpg 190w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022-595x941.jpg 595w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022-768x1214.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022-972x1536.jpg 972w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022-8x12.jpg 8w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Donetsk-Battle-Map-Draft-September-18-2022-250x395.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ed3\u675f\u6218\u4e89\uff1f\u8010\u5fc3\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u957f\u5ea6...<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u601d\u8003\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5c06\u5f81\u670d\u6574\u4e2a\u987f\u6d85\u8328\u514b\u5dde\uff0c\u5e76\u6210\u529f\u5730\u4fdd\u7559\u5b83\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\u5f81\u670d\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u5b83\u5c06\u5982\u4f55\u7ed3\u675f\u6218\u4e89\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u53ca\u5176\u76df\u53cb--\u5373\u7f8e\u56fd\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e24\u6781\u5206\u5316\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7981\u6b62\u4efb\u4f55\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u987f\u5df4\u65af\u7684\u5206\u79bb\u4e3b\u4e49\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u4fdd\u7559\u88ab\u5f81\u670d\u7684\u9886\u571f\u3002(\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/ukrainians-search-grave-site-relatives-after-russians-driven-out-2022-09-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u79f0\u519b\u961f\u8d8a\u8fc7\u4e1c\u5317\u90e8\u7684\u5965\u65af\u57fa\u5c14\u6cb3\uff0c\u6cfd\u4f26\u65af\u57fa\u53d1\u8a93\u4e0d\u4f1a\u653e\u677e\u8b66\u60d5<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670819\u65e5) <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5047\u8bbe\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u9886\u5bfc\u5c42\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u7684\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u60f3\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u4e89\u53d6\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u51c6\u5907\u597d\u7b49\u5f85\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u6761\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u53d8\u5316\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9700\u8981\u6539\u53d8\u7acb\u573a\u7684\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272\u662f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u76df\u53cb\u3002\u4ece\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u9700\u8981\u8d5e\u6210\u505c\u6b62\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u8c08\u5224\u8fbe\u6210\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u3001\u671d\u9c9c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e3b\u4e49\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u548c\u671d\u9c9c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e3b\u4e49\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u6240\u5f81\u670d\u7684\u9886\u571f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u4e2d\u7acb\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u653f\u6cbb\u5f53\u5c40\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u81f3\u5c11\u6301\u7eed\u52302022-2023\u5e74\u51ac\u5b63\u7684 \"\u6fc0\u70c8\u7684\u51b7\u51bb\u6218\u4e89 \"\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8d4c\u6ce8\u662f\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u663e\u7136\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u80fd\u6e90\u6216\u80fd\u6e90\u72b6\u51b5\u590d\u6742\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7ef4\u6301\u4e00\u4e2a\u51ac\u5929\uff0c\u800c\u6781\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u53d1\u6df1\u5ea6\u8870\u9000(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/corporate\/literature\/market-commentary\/weekly-investment-commentary-en-us-20220912-energy-shock-spurs-europe-recession.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9ed1\u77f3\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba<\/a> 2022\u5e749\u670812\u65e5\uff1bJennifer Sor\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/commodities\/europe-energy-crisis-inflation-recession-risk-winter-russia-supply-blackrock-2022-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8d1d\u83b1\u5fb7\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u4f7f\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5e76\u62d6\u7d2fGDP\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u5c06\u9677\u5165\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670812\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f8\u5bf9\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u8f83\u5c11\u906d\u53d7\u5b83\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u5236\u88c1\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u662f\u5b83\u4ece\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e2d\u83b7\u76ca\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7ecf\u6d4e\u90e8\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u6587\u4ef6\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\"\u4eca\u5e74\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u51fa\u53e3\u6536\u5165\u5c06\u8fbe\u52301375\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6bd42021\u5e74\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u6536\u5165\u589e\u52a0\u4e86381\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\"(<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/exclusive-russia-forecasts-export-gas-price-will-more-than-double-2022-2022-08-17\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8def\u900f\u793e<\/a>\uff0c22\u5e748\u670817\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4ecd\u7136\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u9762\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u957f\u671f\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u635f\u5bb3\uff08\u5f6d\u535a\u793e\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-09-05\/russia-risks-bigger-longer-sanctions-hit-internal-report-warns\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u79c1\u4e0b\u8b66\u544a\u8bf4\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5c06\u957f\u671f\u53d7\u5230\u4e25\u91cd\u7834\u574f<\/a>\"\uff0c9\u67086\u65e522\u65e5\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e0e\u6b27\u6d32\u4eba\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e5f\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee5\u66f4\u5e73\u548c\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u627f\u53d7\u75db\u82e6\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u4eba\u5df2\u7ecf\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u5bf9\u80fd\u6e90\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u53cd\u53db\u8ff9\u8c61\uff08\u8def\u900f\u793e\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/cant-pay-dont-pay-italian-group-urges-energy-bill-strike-2022-09-15\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4e0d\u80fd\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u8981\u652f\u4ed8\"--\u610f\u5927\u5229\u56e2\u4f53\u6566\u4fc3\u80fd\u6e90\u8d26\u5355\u7f62\u5de5<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670815\u65e5\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright related wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5\u3001\u5df4\u5e03\u5c14\u66fc\u5fb7\u8d1d\u8d6b\u6e2f\u548c\u6d77\u4e0a\u8fd0\u8f93<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">\u8d85\u8d8a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u4e86\u89e3\u91cd\u5851\u6211\u4eec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5173\u952e\u538b\u529b\u3002.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">\u5c0f\u5fc3--\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u6c99\u7279\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88c5<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/02\/threat-greenland-us-eu-trade-deal\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u683c\u9675\u5170\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd-\u6b27\u76df\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u3001\u6b27\u76df\u8bae\u4f1a\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u672a\u6765<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/01\/21\/us-threat-greenland-when-watch\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u683c\u9675\u5170\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff1a\u4f55\u65f6\u5e94\u89e6\u53d1\u76d1\u89c6\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u65e8\u5728\u4fdd\u6301\u4e16\u754c\u9886\u8896\u5730\u4f4d\u548c\u6267\u884c\u5176\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u9488\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53ea\u4f1a\u52a0\u5f3a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4f19\u4f34\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u53cb\u8c0a\uff08\u5982\u534a\u5c9b\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/9\/8\/french-us-delegations-visit-taiwan-as-tension-with-china-festers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6cd5\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4ee3\u8868\u56e2\u8bbf\u95ee\u53f0\u6e7e\uff0c\u4e0e\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5173\u7cfb\u6301\u7eed\u53d1\u9175<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u67088\u65e5\uff1bHelene Lavoix\uff0c\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/07\/04\/%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e4%b8%8e%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e4%b9%8b%e9%97%b4%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e8%a7%84%e8%8c%83%e7%9a%84%e5%b1%82%e9%9d%a2\/\">\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6218\u4e89--\u89c4\u8303\u6027\u95ee\u9898<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e747\u67084\u65e5\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\"<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/06\/22\/%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%88%a9%e7%9b%8a\/\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca<\/a>\"\uff0c6\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u4e2d\u534e\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\uff0c\"Red Team Analysis Society\"\u3002<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fmprc.gov.cn\/eng\/zxxx_662805\/202209\/t20220915_10766678.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e3b\u5e2d\u4e60\u8fd1\u5e73\u4f1a\u89c1\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u5f17\u62c9\u57fa\u7c73\u5c14-\u666e\u4eac<\/a>\"\uff0c2022\u5e749\u670815\u65e5\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6709\u65f6\u95f4\u4e0a\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u7acb\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6270\u4e71\u5168\u7403\u6218\u7565\u683c\u5c40\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u7b49\u5f85\u548c\u7ee7\u7eed\u7b49\u5f85\uff0c\u800c\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u4ecd\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u5e76\u4f34\u968f\u7740\u75db\u82e6\u548c\u8270\u8f9b\uff0c\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u90fd\u906d\u53d7\u7740\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u51ac\u5929\u6765\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002\u4fc4\u7f57\u65afT-90\u5766\u514b\u5728\u4f0f\u5c14\u52a0\u683c\u52d2\u5730\u533a\u7684\u9605\u5175\u5f0f\u4e0a\uff1b2010\u5e74\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/commons.wikimedia.org\/wiki\/File:Russian_T-90_tanks,_parade.jpg\">www.volganet.ru<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0<\/a>\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5171\u4eab\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(\u827a\u672f\u6307\u5bfc\uff1aJean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\uff092022\u5e749\u6708\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u53cd\u653b\u88ab\u8d5e\u8a89\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u603b\u7edf\u6c83\u6d1b\u57fa\u7c73\u5c14-\u6cfd\u4f26\u65af\u57fa\u611f\u8c22 \"\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u82f1\u96c4\"\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f7f8000\u5e73\u65b9\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u571f\u5730\u57289\u670822\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d \"\u5728\u4e1c\u90e8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u54c8\u5c14\u79d1\u592b\u5dde\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5357\u90e8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u8d6b\u5c14\u677e\u5dde \"\u5f97\u5230 \"\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u7684\u89e3\u653e\"\uff0c... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/09\/19\/alternative-red-scenario-war-ukraine-russia\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span 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