{"id":3671,"date":"2019-03-18T19:08:23","date_gmt":"2019-03-18T18:08:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=3671"},"modified":"2026-05-27T10:54:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T08:54:57","slug":"%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-%e6%94%b9%e5%96%84%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d-%e6%84%9f%e8%b0%a2%e5%81%8f%e8%a7%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/18\/scenarios-improving-the-impact-of-foresight-thanks-to-biases\/","title":{"rendered":"\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u504f\u89c1\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u5c55\u671b\u7684\u5f71\u54cd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>Foreseeing the future, whatever the <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2018\/09\/21\/intelligence-strategic-foresight-and-warning-risk-management-forecasting-or-futurism\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"name (opens in a new tab)\">name<\/a> given to the endeavour, includes two major tasks.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>The first one is, of course, the <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2011\/11\/28\/sfw-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">analysis<\/a>, the process according to which the foresight, forecast, warning, or, more broadly, anticipation is obtained. <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>The second one is less obvious, or rather so evident that it may be overlooked. It is, however, no less vital than analysis. We need to <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2011\/07\/13\/delivery-of-strategic-foresight-warning-products-learning-from-the-social-and-mobile-web\/\" target=\"_blank\">deliver<\/a> the output of the analytical process to those who need the foresight, the decision-makers or policy-makers. Ideally, the recipients must understand that output, because they will act on it. They need to integrate the new knowledge received in the decisions they will take.* <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>A huge challenge runs across these tasks: biases. <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>We must overcome the various natural and constructed biases &#8211; systematic mental errors &#8211; that limit human understanding. This article will present first the classical way we deal with biases: we consider them &#8211; quite rightly &#8211; as &#8220;enemies&#8221; and we devote much effort to mitigate them. Then, considering the specificity of the delivery stage, this article suggests that another strategy is necessary. We need to turn our usual strategy on its head and befriend biases. In that case, scenarios become a tool of choice for an enhanced delivery of our foresight to decision-makers [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=3671\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>Foreseeing the future, whatever the <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2018\/09\/21\/intelligence-strategic-foresight-and-warning-risk-management-forecasting-or-futurism\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"name (opens in a new tab)\">name<\/a> given to the endeavour, includes two major tasks.<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>The first one is, of course, the <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2011\/11\/28\/sfw-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">analysis<\/a>, the process according to which the foresight, forecast, warning, or, more broadly, anticipation is obtained. <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>The second one is less obvious, or rather so evident that it may be overlooked. It is, however, no less vital than analysis. We need to <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2011\/07\/13\/delivery-of-strategic-foresight-warning-products-learning-from-the-social-and-mobile-web\/\" target=\"_blank\">deliver<\/a> the output of the analytical process to those who need the foresight, the decision-makers or policy-makers. Ideally, the recipients must understand that output, because they will act on it. They need to integrate the new knowledge received in the decisions they will take.* <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>A huge challenge runs across these tasks: biases. <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>We must overcome the various natural and constructed biases &#8211; systematic mental errors &#8211; that limit human understanding. This article will present first the classical way we deal with biases: we consider them &#8211; quite rightly &#8211; as &#8220;enemies&#8221; and we devote much effort to mitigate them. Then, considering the specificity of the delivery stage, this article suggests that another strategy is necessary. We need to turn our usual strategy on its head and befriend biases. In that case, scenarios become a tool of choice for an enhanced delivery of our foresight to decision-makers [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=3671\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6499,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3237],"tags":[188,1007,27,551,1789,1448,1447,216,198,190,1450,779,236,1449],"class_list":["post-3671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-communication","category-scenario-building","tag-analysis","tag-anticipation","tag-bias","tag-delivery-to-clients","tag-featured","tag-forecasting","tag-foresight","tag-futurism","tag-probability","tag-scenarios","tag-story-telling","tag-strategic-intelligence","tag-strategic-warning","tag-vividness","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Scenarios: Improving the Impact of Foresight thanks to Biases &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/18\/\u573a\u666f-\u6539\u5584\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd-\u611f\u8c22\u504f\u89c1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scenarios: Improving the Impact of Foresight thanks to Biases &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Foreseeing the future, whatever the name given to the endeavour, includes two major tasks.  The first one is, of course, the analysis, the process according to which the foresight, forecast, warning, or, more broadly, anticipation is obtained.   The second one is less obvious, or rather so evident that it may be overlooked. It is, however, no less vital than analysis. We need to deliver the output of the analytical process to those who need the foresight, the decision-makers or policy-makers. Ideally, the recipients must understand that output, because they will act on it. They need to integrate the new knowledge received in the decisions they will take.*   A huge challenge runs across these tasks: biases.   We must overcome the various natural and constructed biases - systematic mental errors - that limit human understanding. This article will present first the classical way we deal with biases: we consider them - quite rightly - as &quot;enemies&quot; and we devote much effort to mitigate them. Then, considering the specificity of the delivery stage, this article suggests that another strategy is necessary. We need to turn our usual strategy on its head and befriend biases. In that case, scenarios become a tool of choice for an enhanced delivery of our foresight to decision-makers [...] This content is restricted to members only. 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u501f\u52a9\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u89c1\u63d0\u5347\u524d\u77bb\u6027\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u529b \u2022 Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/18\/\u573a\u666f-\u6539\u5584\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd-\u611f\u8c22\u504f\u89c1\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Scenarios: Improving the Impact of Foresight thanks to Biases &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"Foreseeing the future, whatever the name given to the endeavour, includes two major tasks.  The first one is, of course, the analysis, the process according to which the foresight, forecast, warning, or, more broadly, anticipation is obtained.   The second one is less obvious, or rather so evident that it may be overlooked. It is, however, no less vital than analysis. We need to deliver the output of the analytical process to those who need the foresight, the decision-makers or policy-makers. Ideally, the recipients must understand that output, because they will act on it. They need to integrate the new knowledge received in the decisions they will take.*   A huge challenge runs across these tasks: biases.   We must overcome the various natural and constructed biases - systematic mental errors - that limit human understanding. This article will present first the classical way we deal with biases: we consider them - quite rightly - as \"enemies\" and we devote much effort to mitigate them. Then, considering the specificity of the delivery stage, this article suggests that another strategy is necessary. We need to turn our usual strategy on its head and befriend biases. In that case, scenarios become a tool of choice for an enhanced delivery of our foresight to decision-makers [...] This content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/03\/18\/\u573a\u666f-\u6539\u5584\u9884\u89c1\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd-\u611f\u8c22\u504f\u89c1\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2019-03-18T18:08:23+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-05-27T08:54:57+00:00","og_image":[{"width":672,"height":372,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/The_War_Room_Dr._Strangelove_or_How_I_Learned_to_Stop_Worrying_and_Love_the_Bomb-2014.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u4f5c\u8005":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4":"9 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