{"id":3746,"date":"2013-01-21T15:42:52","date_gmt":"2013-01-21T14:42:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=3746"},"modified":"2024-05-24T17:17:02","modified_gmt":"2024-05-24T15:17:02","slug":"talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u3002\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Since\u00a0Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u00a0published his bestseller The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable back in 2007, \u201cBlack Swans\u201d and \u201cBlack Swans events\u201d have become part of everyday language. They are used as a catchphrase to mean two different things. First, as was the case in the Brookings interesting interactive \u201cbriefing book\u201d Big Bets and Black Swans: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama\u2019s Second Term, \u201cblack swans\u201d represent high impact, low probability events, what is also known as wild cards.[i] Second, \u201cblack swans\u201d refer to events that could absolutely not be predicted, as, for example for the Economist in \u201dThe prediction games: Our winners and losers from last year\u2019s edition\u201d. Unfortunately, in this case, the label \u201cblack swans\u201d excuses foresight &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cTaleb&#8217;s Black Swans: The End of Foresight?\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=3746\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since\u00a0Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u00a0published his bestseller The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable back in 2007, \u201cBlack Swans\u201d and \u201cBlack Swans events\u201d have become part of everyday language. They are used as a catchphrase to mean two different things. First, as was the case in the Brookings interesting interactive \u201cbriefing book\u201d Big Bets and Black Swans: Foreign Policy Challenges for President Obama\u2019s Second Term, \u201cblack swans\u201d represent high impact, low probability events, what is also known as wild cards.[i] Second, \u201cblack swans\u201d refer to events that could absolutely not be predicted, as, for example for the Economist in \u201dThe prediction games: Our winners and losers from last year\u2019s edition\u201d. Unfortunately, in this case, the label \u201cblack swans\u201d excuses foresight &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201cTaleb&#8217;s Black Swans: The End of Foresight?\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>The remaining part of this article is for our <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">members<\/a>. Make sure you get real analysis and not opinion, or, worse, fake news. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=3746\">Log in<\/a> and access this article.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20835,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1206,1731],"tags":[188,1007,1466,1469,1472,1464,297,1447,1470,216,1471,894,1465,1463,1468,295,198,1473,1033,1467],"class_list":["post-3746","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","category-basics","tag-analysis","tag-anticipation","tag-black-swan","tag-despair","tag-epistemology","tag-falsifiability","tag-forecast","tag-foresight","tag-fractal","tag-futurism","tag-gray-swan","tag-hope","tag-induction","tag-popper","tag-predictability","tag-prediction","tag-probability","tag-taleb","tag-uncertainty","tag-wild-card","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Taleb&#039;s Black Swans: The End of Foresight? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Taleb&#039;s Black Swans: The End of Foresight? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Since\u00a0Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u00a0published his bestseller The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable back in 2007, \u201cBlack Swans\u201d and \u201cBlack Swans events\u201d have become part of everyday language. They are used as a catchphrase to mean two different things. First, as was the case in the Brookings interesting interactive \u201cbriefing book\u201d Big Bets and &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cTaleb&#8217;s Black Swans: The End of Foresight?\u201dThis content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-01-21T14:42:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-24T15:17:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/swan-10410_1038-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1038\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"10 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/21\\\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/21\\\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Taleb&#8217;s Black Swans: The End of Foresight?\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-01-21T14:42:52+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-05-24T15:17:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/21\\\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2246,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/21\\\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/swan-10410_1038-2.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"analysis\",\"anticipation\",\"black swan\",\"despair\",\"epistemology\",\"falsifiability\",\"forecast\",\"foresight\",\"fractal\",\"Futurism\",\"gray swan\",\"hope\",\"induction\",\"Popper\",\"predictability\",\"prediction\",\"probability\",\"Taleb\",\"uncertainty\",\"wild card\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis and Assessment\",\"Definitions and process\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/21\\\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/21\\\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/01\\\/21\\\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\\\/\",\"name\":\"Taleb's Black Swans: The End of Foresight? 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Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u5854\u52d2\u5e03\u7684\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\uff1a\u9884\u89c1\u529b\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\uff1f \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/01\/21\/talebs-black-swans-the-end-of-foresight\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Taleb's Black Swans: The End of Foresight? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"Since\u00a0Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u00a0published his bestseller The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable back in 2007, \u201cBlack Swans\u201d and \u201cBlack Swans events\u201d have become part of everyday language. 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