{"id":391,"date":"2019-04-29T10:46:07","date_gmt":"2019-04-29T08:46:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=391"},"modified":"2024-11-13T18:18:31","modified_gmt":"2024-11-13T17:18:31","slug":"%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/29\/future-of-state\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9884\u89c1\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff1aEverstate\u7684\u7f16\u5e74\u53f2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Riots and protests have been progressively, and in an accelerating way, occurring in many countries. Starting with France in 2005, they spread throughout most of the world, from the Arab Spring to Thailand through Hong Kong, the U.S. or, more recently Venezuela, Algeria and France, again, with the Yellow Vest movement at the end of 2018 and beginning of 2019. Meanwhile global environmental movements spread (see &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2018\/12\/04\/protest-movements-mobilisation-geo-temporal-spread-some-lessons-from-history-1\/\">Understanding the French Yellow Vest Movement and its Crescendo<\/a>&#8221; and &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2019\/01\/29\/stabilising-escalating-french-yellow-vest-movement\/\">Stabilising Or Escalating the French Yellow Vest Movement?<\/a>&#8220;,<em>The Guardian<\/em>, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2019\/apr\/25\/global-youth-movements-tell-us-about-your-grassroots-campaigns\">Global youth movements: tell us about your grassroots campaigns<\/a>&#8220;, 25 April 2019). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the meantime, public deficits have become structural and entrenched (see e.g. Luca Ventura, &#8220;<a aria-label=\"Percentage of Public Debt to GDP Around the World 2018 (opens in a new tab)\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gfmag.com\/global-data\/economic-data\/public-debt-percentage-gdp\" target=\"_blank\">Percentage of Public Debt to GDP Around the World 2018<\/a>&#8220;, <em>Global Finance<\/em>, 17 December 2018). The financial and economic crisis the sub-primes triggered in 2007 made these deficits even more acute (Ibid.).<\/p>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-250x150.png\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-250x150.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Broadcast-Map-of-Yemen-in-Studio-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">RTAS Expertise Highlighted on Italian Television Channel LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Featured image of the article &quot;The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport&quot; by Dr H\u00e9l\u00e8ne Lavoix for RTAS - Image by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Houthis-Mandeb.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/RTAS-Lithium-Article.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">The Strange Mystery of Bolivia&#8217;s Lithium Reserves<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/RTAS-Toynbee-Challenges-Pressures-1568-x-941.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/RTAS-watch-saudi.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">WATCH OUT &#8211; The Iran War, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Illustration by Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-blackhole.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/12\/chronicles-hyperwar-ai-new-energy-frontier-1\/\">Chronicles of the Hyperwar &#8211; AI: AI, the New Energy Frontier (1)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><div class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__featured-image alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"250\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg\" class=\"attachment-thumbnail size-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"max-width:63px;max-height:38px;\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-250x150.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-500x300.jpg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-768x461.jpg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1536x922.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1320x792.jpg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome-1038x623.jpg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/RTAS-golden-dome.jpg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 34.9rem) calc(100vw - 2rem), (max-width: 53rem) calc(8 * (100vw \/ 12)), (min-width: 53rem) calc(6 * (100vw \/ 12)), 100vw\" \/><\/div><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL &#8211; The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some elections have resulted in completely unexpected results, such as, in 2016, most famously, the Brexit and the choice of Donald Trump as President of the U.S.. This led many to denounce the come back of a dangerous &#8220;populism&#8221; (see <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/02\/27\/beyond-end-globalisation-brexit-u-s-president-trump\/\">Beyond the End of Globalisation \u2013 From the Brexit to U.S. President Trump<\/a>; <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/03\/20\/investigating-the-rise-of-populism-a-perfect-definition\/\">Investigating the Rise of Populism \u2013 A Perfect Definition? <\/a>and <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2017\/04\/10\/investigating-the-rise-of-populism-2-populism-labelling-and-its-dangers\/\">Investigating the Rise of Populism (2) \u2013 Populism-Labelling and its Dangers)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, the signals we had identified back in 2011, with the first edition of this article and of The Chronicles of Everstate, not only did not relent but, on the contrary, strengthened. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Back in 2011 and 2012, to explain there was something amiss and, that, yes, it was highly likely that the &#8220;liberal democracy&#8221; system would change was met with incredulity at best. Government officials, even in countries most advanced in terms of foresight, and corporate high level executives tended to be most skeptical. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, things have changed, and are still changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is everyday increasingly clear that something is happening at the very heart of our societies. The political systems in which we live are under stress. Changes are in the making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The end of the modern nation-state?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those very real events reflect a concern that has been underlined and debated in social sciences, notably international relations theory and political science, for a long while. It has most often been expressed as the impending demise of the modern nation-state and related system. Already in 1977, Hedley Bull in his masterful <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=jD31G1ZjI0EC&amp;dq=the+anarchical+society&amp;hl=en&amp;ei=_AKoTsm1N4nd8QOv2vXRDw&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=1&amp;ved=0CC0Q6AEwAA\" target=\"_blank\"><em>The<\/em> <em>Anarchical Society<\/em><\/a> was, among other, testing various hypotheses related to possible future evolutions of political systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"#mailpoet_form-3\">Subscribe for new articles<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, the strength or fragility of the state generates a lot of interest (e.g. OECD, <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"States of Fragility 2018 (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.oecd.org\/dac\/states-of-fragility-2018-9789264302075-en.htm\" target=\"_blank\">States of Fragility 2018<\/a><\/em>, July 17, 2018; Paul Collier, <em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"A new approach to state fragility (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/research\/a-new-approach-to-state-fragility\/\" target=\"_blank\">A new approach to state fragility<\/a><\/em>, Brookings, 11 January 2019). Indeed a growing fragility could lead to civil war, state collapse and generalised warfare. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The state is this political entity that is so difficult to define precisely and universally, and, yet, that we immediately recognize when we deal with it or when it is not there anymore. It is Hobbes\u2019 <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/books.google.com\/books?id=-Q4nPYeps6MC&amp;lpg=PP1&amp;ots=_vXv1BoIY4&amp;dq=hobbes%20leviathan&amp;pg=PP1#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false\" target=\"_blank\">Leviathan<\/a>, and, without it, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe life of man [is] solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.\u201d<\/p>\n<cite>Thomas Hobbes<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The type of state that is prevalent nowadays is described as modern (the modern state), centralized and rational. It is linked to the nation (the nation-state). The&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Favalon.law.yale.edu%2F17th_century%2Fwestphal.asp&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFrqEzfzKGw1CIrV7M8jkZxuLSlyJk5VTQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">1648 Treaty of Westphalia<\/a>&nbsp;marks the birth of the modern state system.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1038\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Westfaelischer_Friede_in_Muenster_Gerard_Terborch_1648-1568-1038x624.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-22109\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Westfaelischer_Friede_in_Muenster_Gerard_Terborch_1648-1568-1038x624.jpeg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Westfaelischer_Friede_in_Muenster_Gerard_Terborch_1648-1568-300x180.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Westfaelischer_Friede_in_Muenster_Gerard_Terborch_1648-1568-768x461.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Westfaelischer_Friede_in_Muenster_Gerard_Terborch_1648-1568.jpeg 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Westfaelischer_Friede_in_Muenster_Gerard_Terborch_1648-1568-1320x793.jpeg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Westfaelischer_Friede_in_Muenster_Gerard_Terborch_1648-1568-250x150.jpeg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1038px) 100vw, 1038px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The Ratification of the Treaty of M\u00fcnster, 15 May 1648, byGerard Terborch, public domain<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As human beings, we all live under one form or another of state. The state is the guarantor of security writ large, from the protection of foreign enemies to domestic peace to the foundation for material and immaterial security (Barrington Moore, <em>Injustice: Social bases of Obedience and Revolt<\/em>, London: Macmillan, 1978). Hence, fragile states could mean strife and death. Thus, the state&#8217;s potential disappearance, as well as its changes, primarily concern us all. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We must be able to envision its plausible futures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The question is absolutely crucial because from the answer will depend how we shall deal with all other issues facing us, from climate change to geopolitics through food and energy security, among others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is even more important because, to these challenges that were obvious back in 2011, we must now add the paradigmatic changes that <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"artificial intelligence (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/category\/artificial-intelligence\/\" target=\"_blank\">artificial intelligence<\/a> and <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"quantum information science (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/category\/quantum\/\" target=\"_blank\">quantum information science<\/a> will bring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to foresee the future(s) of the modern nation-state? The Chronicles of Everstate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As methodologies such as <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Strategic Foresight and Warning (SF&amp;W) - with risk management (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2019\/02\/25\/when-risk-management-meets-strategic-foresight-and-warning\/\" target=\"_blank\">strategic foresight and warning (SF&amp;W) or risk management<\/a> exist to properly envision changes and imagine possible futures, we applied SF&amp;W to this debated and complex issue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our foresight question is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What will be the future of the modern nation-state, this ideal-type form of polity into which most of us live nowadays, over the next twenty years?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"mce_34\">Developing an adapted foresight methodology<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Building upon existing methods and tools, we designed a tailor-made methodology to serve a quadruple purpose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1- Scenarios as groundwork to explore the future of nation-states<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, the methodology had to lay the groundwork to explore the futures of modern nation-states over the next twenty years. This means we wanted to be able to use our work for all states, of course adapting it to the specificities of each one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Considering the wide range of states, we needed to work with ideal-types. As a result, the methodology builds scenarios for a fictional state created to imagine and tell the story of potential futures for our \u2013 very real \u2013 states or countries. All the related articles and narratives were gathered under the name of &#8220;The Chronicles of Everstate&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The narrative focuses on fundamental political dynamics, which lead to three scenarios. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We explore in detail a first scenario, &#8220;<em>Mamominarch: Off with the State\u201d,<\/em> where the liberal logic is exacerbated and where the search for profits tends to take precedence over any other concern. We stress test the scenario with a set of catastrophes deemed likely, considering the selected variables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button aligncenter\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\">Become a member<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We then turn to a second scenario, &#8220;<em>Panglossy: Same Old, Same Old&#8221;<\/em>, where a milder type of liberalism with <em>laissez-faire<\/em> rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The third scenario, more optimistic, was assessed as so unlikely at the time of writing, that we chose then not to develop it further before more interest emerged. If we had been building of a full set of scenarios for a corporate of public clients, and not for publication on the web, then we would had also developed this scenario and related sub-scenarios. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The current evolution, including in terms of beliefs, of transition of the international order, rise of Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Information System, while the threat of climate change does not relent, suggests that enlightened actors could now become interested in the development of this third scenario and offshoots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2- Sense-Making for reality<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, and in a related way, the Chronicles help illustrate the various political dynamics at work in the world, and how they could evolve &#8211; or not &#8211; in the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As they are presented as ideal-types, readers can use them to identify the dynamics at work in the real world. Using the Chronicles, s\/he will then have a better idea of the highly likely impacts of the phenomena they observe and that inform their lives and activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3- Methodological objectives<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Third, the Chronicles fulfils methodological objectives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They are an experiment in constructing an extremely detailed scenario analysis and narrative. We used the experiment to improve the overall methodology of the Red (Team) Analysis Society. Meanwhile, we also tested the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"use of ego networks to develop a narrative (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2012\/01\/02\/using-ego-networks-in-foresight-scenarios\/\" target=\"_blank\">use of ego networks to develop a narrative<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Building upon a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"methodology (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2018\/12\/28\/foresight-method\/\" target=\"_blank\">methodology<\/a> evolving out of classical structural foresight analysis, we creatively yet scientifically adapted our design and tools to the issue at hand. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We used the software <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Gephi (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/gephi.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">Gephi<\/a> to create the model, then throughout the whole foresight analysis. In the meantime, we tested various <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/category\/how-to-foresee-and-warn\/delivery\/visual-tools-design\/\" target=\"_blank\">visual tools<\/a> and designs to enhance the <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/category\/how-to-foresee-and-warn\/delivery\/logic-of-delivery\/\" target=\"_blank\">delivery<\/a>. For example, to illustrate the scenarios, we used the famous triptych by master Hieronymus Bosch, <em>The Garden of Earthly Delights.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We adopted an imaginary time, <a style=\"font-style: normal;\" title=\"Creating Evertime\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2011\/12\/19\/creating-evertime\/\" target=\"_blank\">Evertime<\/a> (in short EVT). The timelines or sequences of events and the durations are, nonetheless, similar to what we experiment in real life. As real events unfold, the Chronicles thus give us elements to test and improve our understanding of time. It helps documenting if political science-based estimates were too short or too long, if dynamics took longer than expected, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4- Strategic foresight analysis as an investment<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, the Chronicles seek to demonstrate the advantage to develop in-depth and serious scenarios, using necessary resources and grounding them in science. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The continuing pertinence of the Chronicles of Everstate over time shows indeed that scenarios may be relevant long after they have been written. When updates are necessary, then the existence of a strong underlying model allows for a &#8211; relatively &#8211; easy improvement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, actors can understand strategic foresight as an investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Who are the &#8220;clients&#8221;? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SF&amp;W only exists if clients receive its products (Cynthia Grabo, <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ni-u.edu\/ni_press\/pdf\/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning<\/em><\/a>, 2004). Thus, we had to identify who were the customers or clients for the Chronicles of Everstate, knowing they would be published on the web. Then we had to imagine the best possible form for the product considering those customers and web constraints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ideal point of view we took was that those clients and users were all those concerned with the modern nation-state and its changes as explained in detail in <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Meeting the Need to Foresee and Warn \u2013 Our Philosophy (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/about-2\/concept-philosophy\/\" target=\"_blank\">Meeting the Need to Foresee and Warn \u2013 Our Philosophy<\/a>: primarily the contemporary rulers of the state, i.e. the nation and the citizens, the corporate sector, and the civil servants working for the state apparatus that supports the ruler, .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The format of the Chronicles of Everstate, which we are now re-publishing considering their relevance, is an answer to those various concerns. We aimed for relatively short pieces, each starting with a  summary of the previous articles. We thus actually developed a serialised narrative. It can be read in order to focus on dynamics but also according to themes, using the title of the article. The Table of Contents is available <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"here (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/portal-to-the-chronicles-of-everstate\/\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first section presents the rationale behind the Chronicles of Everstate, why Everstate, and how to use the concept. It includes a series of articles that are methodological in focus and explain the nuts and bolts of the Chronicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then, we tell the Chronicles of Everstate. All articles are at the same time a didactic practical application of the methodology and the development of the narratives of the various scenarios for the future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light alignfull\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-0 has-background-dim\"><\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1569\" height=\"941\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-21707\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568.jpeg\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568.jpeg 1569w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-500x300.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-250x150.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-768x461.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-1536x921.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-16x10.jpeg 16w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-1320x792.jpeg 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-1038x623.jpeg 1038w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-300x180.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/Garden_delights-2-1568-1568x940.jpeg 1568w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1569px) 100vw, 1569px\" \/><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center has-large-font-size\"><strong>Welcome to the Chronicles of Everstate!<\/strong><br><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/portal-to-the-chronicles-of-everstate\/\">Enter<\/a>&#8230;<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Notes and References<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2012\/06\/09\/future-of-state-and-governance-bibliography\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bibliography on nations, governance and the modern state<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anderson, Craig A., Mark R. Lepper, and Lee Ross. &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=perseverance%20of%20social%20theories%3A%20the%20role%20of%20explanation%20in%20the%20persistence%20of%20discredited%20information&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;ved=0CB0QFjAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fciteseerx.ist.psu.edu%2Fviewdoc%2Fdownload%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.130.933%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf&amp;ei=ihaoTsK7PI2cOqfmsQI&amp;usg=AFQjCNHP6tzhTqD_ETVoj77ZVhkyYccL4g&amp;sig2=5dxgtZihxs_QnwgurbPomg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Perseverance of Social Theories: The Role of Explanation in the Persistence of Discredited Information<\/a>.&#8221; J<em>ournal of Personality and Social Psychology<\/em> 1980, Vol. 39, No.6, 1037-1049.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bull, Hedley, <em>The Anarchical Society: <\/em><em>A Study of Order in World Politics<\/em>. London: MacMillan, 1977.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gross, Leo (January 1948), \u201c<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fjstor.org%2Fstable%2F2193560&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFrqEzeekyGIJ0f4-3FiJY5KrFEVG_QBMQ\" target=\"_blank\">The Peace of Westphalia<\/a>\u201c, The American Journal of International Law 42\/1 (1): 20\u201341, <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FDigital_object_identifier&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFrqEzftmTevy-hutiCLczhsiGBMgmCCVw\" target=\"_blank\">doi<\/a>:<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fdx.doi.org%2F10.2307%252F2193560&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFrqEzcxLpOIu9FEvCdkBzoR9yh_201ZuA\" target=\"_blank\">10.2307\/2193560<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Grabo, Cynthia M.,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ni-u.edu\/ni_press\/pdf\/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning<\/em><\/a>, edited by Jan Goldman, (Lanham MD: University Press of America, May 2004)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moore, B.,&nbsp;<em>Injustice: Social bases of Obedience and Revolt<\/em>, (London: Macmillan, 1978).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u9a9a\u4e71\u548c\u6297\u8bae\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u9010\u6b65\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u52a0\u901f\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u3002\u4ece2005\u5e74\u7684\u6cd5\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u8513\u5ef6\u5230\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u4ece \"\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625 \"\u5230\u6cf0\u56fd\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u9999\u6e2f\u3001\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u3001\u963f\u5c14\u53ca\u5229\u4e9a\u548c\u6cd5\u56fd\uff0c\u518d\u5230\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u9ec4\u80cc\u5fc3\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/29\/future-of-state\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u9884\u89c1\u73b0\u4ee3\u6c11\u65cf\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\uff1aEverstate \u7f16\u5e74\u53f2\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22420,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[160,2860],"tags":[188,27,62,166,48,49,551,1789,159,156,170,88,287,1509,354,178,676,2560,110,165,113,400,161,174,190,139,46,47,169],"class_list":["post-391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chronicles-of-everstate","category-featured","tag-analysis","tag-bias","tag-citizens","tag-civil-war","tag-client","tag-customer","tag-delivery-to-clients","tag-featured","tag-foresight-product","tag-future","tag-geopolitics","tag-government","tag-instability","tag-methodology","tag-modern-nation-state","tag-narrative","tag-nationalism","tag-open-access","tag-policy-maker","tag-political-science","tag-protest","tag-radicalisation","tag-riots","tag-ruler","tag-scenarios","tag-the-chronicles-of-everstate","tag-tool","tag-user","tag-warfare","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Foreseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/29\/\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Foreseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Riots and protests have been progressively, and in an accelerating way, occurring in many countries. Starting with France in 2005, they spread throughout most of the world, from the Arab Spring to Thailand through Hong Kong, the U.S. or, more recently Venezuela, Algeria and France, again, with the Yellow Vest movement at the end of &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cForeseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/04\/29\/\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u672a\u6765\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-04-29T08:46:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-13T17:18:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Leviathan_by_Thomas_Hobbes-2-1568-red-yellow.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"9 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/29\\\/future-of-state\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/29\\\/future-of-state\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Foreseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-04-29T08:46:07+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-13T17:18:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/29\\\/future-of-state\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1862,\"commentCount\":3,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/29\\\/future-of-state\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/Leviathan_by_Thomas_Hobbes-2-1568-red-yellow.jpeg\",\"keywords\":[\"analysis\",\"bias\",\"citizens\",\"civil war\",\"client\",\"customer\",\"delivery to clients\",\"featured\",\"foresight product\",\"future\",\"geopolitics\",\"government\",\"instability\",\"methodology\",\"modern nation-state\",\"narrative\",\"nationalism\",\"Open Access\",\"policy-maker\",\"political science\",\"protest\",\"radicalisation\",\"riots\",\"ruler\",\"scenarios\",\"The Chronicles of Everstate\",\"tool\",\"user\",\"warfare\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Chronicles of Everstate - Scenarios\",\"Featured\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/29\\\/future-of-state\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/29\\\/future-of-state\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2019\\\/04\\\/29\\\/future-of-state\\\/\",\"name\":\"Foreseeing the Future of the Modern Nation-State: the Chronicles of Everstate &#8226; 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