{"id":42488,"date":"2025-11-28T10:12:14","date_gmt":"2025-11-28T09:12:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=42488"},"modified":"2025-11-29T08:46:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-29T07:46:35","slug":"%e4%bf%a1%e4%bd%bf%e8%a7%86%e9%a2%91","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4ecd\u4f1a\u4e2d\u67aa--\u4ee5\u53ca\u60a8\u80fd\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48--\u89c6\u9891"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right alignright wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:16.5px\">(Art design &#8211; featured image: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/%E2%9C%B8-jean-dominique-lavoix-carli-359958181\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During a meeting with senior leaders and decision-makers, one participant remarked how difficult it is to warn about impending or future danger. Doing so entails the risk of being labelled negative or unpleasant, and ultimately pushed aside. In such conditions, how can we carry out proper strategic foresight and early warning if telling inconvenient truths puts us at risk of exclusion?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This story is not an isolated case, but repeats itself again and again across all organisations. It permeates our social and personal life. It blinds politics and geopolitics. Crises often end in congratulations for the way they were \u201cmanaged,\u201d when many should never have occurred in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is happening and how can we overcome this challenge? Can ancient wisdom and current research help us understand\u2014and solve\u2014the problem? And how can we ensure we deliver strategic foresight and early warning <em>without<\/em> being silenced?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To explore these questions, start with the short video below <strong>\u201cWhy the Messenger Gets Shot\u201d<\/strong>, then dive deeper into the issue with the article<strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2021\/04\/14\/why-the-messenger-got-shot-and-how-to-avoid-this-fate\/\">&#8216;Why the Messenger Got Shot and how to Avoid this Fate\u2019<\/a><\/strong>, which also served as the basis for the video (created with NotebookLM) and includes the complete bibliography. Finally, discover a concrete illustration of these dynamics, which contribute, along other factors, to shape our world today: the outcome of <strong>COP30<\/strong> and Iceland\u2019s new commendable stance on the potential slowing of the <strong>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Watch the video<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XIAo3OwE0Lo?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">For the subtitles in French: in settings, you need to choose &#8216;on&#8217; for subtitle, then English auto-generated, then automatic translation: French.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Read the article<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-the-red-team-analysis-society wp-block-embed-the-red-team-analysis-society\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\nhttps:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2021\/04\/14\/why-the-messenger-got-shot-and-how-to-avoid-this-fate\/\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Motivated Ignorance at Work?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The outcome of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/news\/ng-interactive\/2025\/nov\/09\/amid-squabbles-bombast-and-competing-interests-what-can-cop30-achieve\">30th UN climate conference&nbsp;<\/a> (COP30) can be seen as the result of a case of motivated ignorance at work, besides a host of operating and interacting factors related to international relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The COP30 is finally hailed as &#8220;not a failure&#8221;, when, for example, neither the transition away from fossile fuels, nor deforestation were tackled practically and included in the final document, and thus when the COP30 fell truly short of success (e.g. Fiona Harvey,&#8221;\u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2025\/nov\/25\/fossil-fuel-giants-finally-in-the-crosshairs-cop30-avoids-total-failure-with-last-ditch-deal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fossil fuel giants finally in the crosshairs\u2019<\/a>: Cop30 avoids total failure with last-ditch deal&#8221;, The Guardian, 25 Nov 2025; Damian Carrington<em>&nbsp;<\/em>et al., &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2025\/nov\/23\/un-warns-world-losing-climate-battle-but-fragile-cop30-deal-keeps-up-the-fight\">UN warns world losing climate battle but fragile Cop30 deal keeps up the fight<\/a>&#8220;, The Guardian, 23 Nov 2025). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, according to Simon Stiell, the UN\u2019s climate chief,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cCOP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet, with a firm resolve to keep 1.5C within reach [<em>see UNEP assessment below<\/em>]. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m not saying we\u2019re winning the climate fight. But we are undeniably still in it, and we are fighting back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here in Belem, nations&nbsp;chose unity, science, and economic common sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year there has been a lot of attention on one country stepping back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But amid the gale-force political headwinds, 194 countries&nbsp;stood firm in solidarity &#8211; rock-solid in support of climate cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the first time, 194 nations said in unison:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2018&#8230;the global transition to low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilience is irreversible and the trend of the future.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">194 nations agreed this word by word, because it is the truth &#8211; backed up by investment flows into renewables that now double fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a political and market signal that cannot be ignored&#8230;.&#8221;<\/p>\n<cite>Simon Stiell closing speech: \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/news\/simon-stiell-closing-speech-cop30-showed-that-climate-cooperation-is-alive-and-kicking-keeping\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet<\/a>\u201d 22 November 2025, United Nations Climate Change. [<em>my comments<\/em>] <\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Worse still, thirty climate conferences have resulted in greenhouse gases being emitted at ever increasing levels, with global temperatures likely <strong>exceeding 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial<\/strong> <strong>levels<\/strong> <strong>over the next decade<\/strong>, to say nothing of the following decades, as explained by the United Nations Environment Programme: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.unep.org\/news-and-stories\/story\/world-likely-exceed-key-global-warming-target-soon-now-what\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The world is likely to exceed a key global warming target soon. Now what?<\/a>&#8220;. Yet, year after year, the same system with the same consequences is applied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result too of the repeated failure to address climate change, another expected consequence is starting to be increasingly likely: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is possibly slowing down (e.g. Gerard McCarthy,&nbsp;Maynooth University et al. &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/brainstorm\/2025\/0910\/1532666-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-wobble-ireland-climate\/\">Is the Atlantic ocean&#8217;s &#8220;wobble&#8221; a warning for Ireland<\/a>?&#8221;, Raidi\u00f3 Teilif\u00eds \u00c9ireann, 10 September 2025). In a nutshell, at best, this slowing down would mean that, in Europe but also in the tropics, and along the North Atlantic track for storms, &#8220;drier summers and stormier conditions will exacerbate the impacts of climate change, even if warming is muted&#8221; (Ibid).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6ad7bca191a7c&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6ad7bca191a7c\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2067\" height=\"1310\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade.png\" alt=\"Figure from Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, J\u00fcrgen Kurths, and\u00a0Ricarda Winkelmann\ufffc\n &quot;Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming&quot;, Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License, Articles, Volume 12, issue 2, ESD, 12, 601\u2013619, 2021\" class=\"wp-image-42568\" style=\"object-fit:cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade.png 2067w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-473x300.png 473w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-1485x941.png 1485w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-768x487.png 768w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-1536x973.png 1536w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-2048x1298.png 2048w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-18x12.png 18w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-1568x994.png 1568w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-1320x837.png 1320w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-250x158.png 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Wunderling_2021_tipping_cascade-1038x658.png 1038w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2067px) 100vw, 2067px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-light-gray-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1 wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:0.6em\">Figure from Nico Wunderling<a href=\"mailto:nico.wunderling@pik-potsdam.de\"><\/a>, Jonathan F. Donges, J\u00fcrgen Kurths, and&nbsp;Ricarda Winkelmann<a href=\"mailto:ricarda.winkelmann@pik-potsdam.de\"><\/a><br> &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/esd.copernicus.org\/articles\/12\/601\/2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming<\/a>&#8220;, Distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License, <a href=\"https:\/\/esd.copernicus.org\/\">Articles<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/esd.copernicus.org\/articles\/12\/issue2.html\">Volume 12, issue 2<\/a>, ESD, 12, 601\u2013619, 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Already, in October 2024, 42 scientists had addressed a letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers warning of the risks related to the AMOC, as those risks had been previously underestimated (ICOS, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.icos-cp.eu\/news-and-events\/news\/scientists-warn-collapse-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc\">Scientists warn of collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation AMOC<\/a>&#8220;, November 2024).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The threat is serious enough for Iceland to declare the potential failure of the AMOC a national security threat (e.g. Steve Hanley, &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2025\/11\/13\/iceland-warns-slower-amoc-is-a-security-threat-to-the-nation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Iceland Warns Slower AMOC Is A Security Threat To The Nation<\/a>&#8220;, CleanTechnica, 13 Nov 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here, Iceland appears not to have shot the messenger, on the contrary. It has overcome the bias of motivated ignorance and seriously considers the threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Will other countries follow Iceland and overcome motivated ignorance? Indeed impact will not be limited to countries directly hit but have ripple effects on the entire world, including China and India, for example. Will considering an AMOC slowdown be done soon enough to allow for necessary actions? How would the international world look like in that case?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(\u827a\u672f\u8bbe\u8ba1--\u4e13\u9898\u56fe\u7247\uff1aJean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli\uff09\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u4e0e\u9ad8\u5c42\u9886\u5bfc\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e0e\u4f1a\u8005\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c31\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u6765\u6216\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5371\u9669\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u544a\u662f\u591a\u4e48\u56f0\u96be\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8d34\u4e0a\u8d1f\u9762\u6216\u4e0d\u6109\u5feb\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u88ab\u6324\u5230\u4e00\u8fb9\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5c55\u671b\uff1f <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u201c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4ecd\u4f1a\u4e2d\u67aa--\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f60\u80fd\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48--\u89c6\u9891\u201d<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":42536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3337,31,2860,4352],"tags":[27,1789,2560],"class_list":["post-42488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change-and-security","category-communication","category-featured","category-oceans-and-seas","tag-bias","tag-featured","tag-open-access","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It - Video &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2025\/11\/28\/\u4fe1\u4f7f\u89c6\u9891\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It - Video &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(Art design &#8211; featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) During a meeting with senior leaders and decision-makers, one participant remarked how difficult it is to warn about impending or future danger. Doing so entails the risk of being labelled negative or unpleasant, and ultimately pushed aside. In such conditions, how can we carry out proper strategic foresight &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cWhy the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It &#8211; Video\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2025\/11\/28\/\u4fe1\u4f7f\u89c6\u9891\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-28T09:12:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-29T07:46:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1568\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It &#8211; Video\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-28T09:12:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-11-29T07:46:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":992,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"bias\",\"featured\",\"Open Access\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Climate Change and Security\",\"Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning\",\"Featured\",\"Oceans and Seas\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It - Video &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-28T09:12:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-11-29T07:46:35+00:00\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/28\\\/messenger-video\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg\",\"width\":1568,\"height\":941},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"description\":\"Strategic Foresight &amp; Early Warning \uff65 Political &amp; Geopolitical Risk \u00b7 Scenarios\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/03\\\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Red Team Analysis Society\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/pages\\\/Red-Team-Analysis\\\/341280995886057\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/helenelavoix\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/5403964\\\/admin\\\/dashboard\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\",\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"description\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4ecd\u7136\u4f1a\u88ab\u51fb\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f60\u80fd\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48 - \u89c6\u9891 \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2025\/11\/28\/\u4fe1\u4f7f\u89c6\u9891\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It - Video &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"(Art design &#8211; featured image: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli) During a meeting with senior leaders and decision-makers, one participant remarked how difficult it is to warn about impending or future danger. Doing so entails the risk of being labelled negative or unpleasant, and ultimately pushed aside. In such conditions, how can we carry out proper strategic foresight &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cWhy the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It &#8211; Video\u201d","og_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2025\/11\/28\/\u4fe1\u4f7f\u89c6\u9891\/","og_site_name":"The Red Team Analysis Society","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","article_published_time":"2025-11-28T09:12:14+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-11-29T07:46:35+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1568,"height":941,"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@HLavoix","twitter_site":"@HLavoix","twitter_misc":{"\u4f5c\u8005":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4":"5 \u5206"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4"},"headline":"Why the Messenger Still Gets Shot \u2014 And What You Can Do About It &#8211; Video","datePublished":"2025-11-28T09:12:14+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-29T07:46:35+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/"},"wordCount":992,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg","keywords":["bias","featured","Open Access"],"articleSection":["Climate Change and Security","Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning","Featured","Oceans and Seas"],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/","name":"\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fe1\u4f7f\u4ecd\u7136\u4f1a\u88ab\u51fb\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f60\u80fd\u505a\u4e9b\u4ec0\u4e48 - \u89c6\u9891 \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg","datePublished":"2025-11-28T09:12:14+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-29T07:46:35+00:00","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2025\/11\/28\/messenger-video\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg","width":1568,"height":941},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#website","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","name":"\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240","description":"\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u4e0e\u65e9\u671f\u9884\u8b66 \uff65 \u653f\u6cbb\u4e0e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669 \u00b7 \u60c5\u666f\u5206\u6790","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"zh-Hans"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#organization","name":"\u8fdc\u666f\u6d1e\u5bdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"zh-Hans","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/logo-Sans-fond-interior-white-thick-circle-3-1-250.png","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Red Team Analysis Society"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/helenelavoix\/","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/5403964\/admin\/dashboard\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/#\/schema\/person\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4","name":"Helene Lavoix \u535a\u58eb\uff08\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u7406\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u3001\u535a\u58eb\uff09","description":"\u662f Red Team Analysis Society \u7684\u603b\u88c1\u517c\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u3002\u5979\u62e5\u6709\u4f26\u6566\u5927\u5b66\u4e9a\u975e\u5b66\u9662\uff08SOAS\uff09\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u548c\u4e9a\u6d32\u56fd\u9645\u653f\u6cbb\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff08\u4f18\u5f02\u6210\u7ee9\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u7855\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\uff08\u6cd5\u56fd\u5927\u5b66\u6821\u6bd5\u4e1a\uff09\u3002\r\n\r\n\u5979\u62e5\u6709 30 \u5e74\u7684\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u8fd1 20 \u5e74\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u7ecf\u9a8c\uff0c\u662f\u6218\u7565\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u62c9\u6c83\u74e6\u535a\u58eb\u66fe\u5728\u4e94\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u751f\u6d3b\u548c\u5de5\u4f5c\u8fc7\uff0c\u5728\u53e6\u5916 16 \u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u6267\u884c\u8fc7\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u57f9\u8bad\u8fc7\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5b98\u5458\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6b27\u6d32\u9879\u76ee\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5728\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u548c\u7ea6\u65e6\u3002\r\n\r\n\u5979\u66fe\u5728\u65b0\u52a0\u5761 RSIS\u3001SciencesPo-PSIA \u6216\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u56fd\u5185\u6cbb\u5b89\u90e8\u961f\u9ad8\u7b49\u5b66\u6821\u548c\u7a81\u5c3c\u65af\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u548c\u822a\u5929\u5c40\u9886\u5bfc\u529b\u5b66\u9662\u7b49\u8457\u540d\u673a\u6784\u62c5\u4efb\u8bb2\u5e08\uff08\u7855\u58eb\uff09\uff0c\u8bb2\u6388\u6218\u7565\u524d\u77bb\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0e\u5b9e\u8df5\u3002\r\n\u5979\u5b9a\u671f\u53d1\u8868\u5173\u4e8e\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u548c\u94c0\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u79e9\u5e8f\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u5d1b\u8d77\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u4e3b\u9898\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\r\n\r\n\u62c9\u6c83\u74e6\u535a\u58eb\u81f4\u529b\u4e8e\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u8fdb\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c06\u5b66\u672f\u4e13\u957f\u4e0e\u5b9e\u5730\u7ecf\u9a8c\u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6311\u6218\u3002.","sameAs":["https:\/\/redanalysis.org","https:\/\/x.com\/HLavoix"],"url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/author\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/RTAS-nb-messngr-2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42488"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42583,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42488\/revisions\/42583"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}