{"id":44516,"date":"2026-07-15T13:05:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-15T11:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/?p=44516"},"modified":"2026-09-07T12:36:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T10:36:25","slug":"%e7%8e%bb%e5%88%a9%e7%bb%b4%e4%ba%9a%e9%94%82%e5%82%a8%e9%87%8f%e7%9a%84%e8%b0%9c%e5%9b%a2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/","title":{"rendered":"\u73bb\u5229\u7ef4\u4e9a\u9502\u50a8\u91cf\u7684\u79bb\u5947\u4e4b\u8c1c"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Art direction and design; illustration
created with AI: Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When exploring how geopolitics and critical mineral supply chains \u2014 here, Lithium \u2014 may interact and impact each other, the first thing to do is to find out where the deposits of a critical mineral are located, how much resource is estimated within those deposits and, finally, which part of those resources can be estimated as reserves. This is the fundamental basis for analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, when seeking the most recent assessment of the amount of Lithium resources and reserves worldwide, if we follow the data provided by the European Commission RMIS \u2013 Raw Materials Information System<\/a>, we discover that the country holding the largest reserve of Lithium in the world would be Bolivia, with 39 million tonnes (data for 2023 \u2014 latest data available).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
Screenshot of the RMIS Lithium factsheet (accessed 10 July 2026)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

This would represent 57% of world reserves according to RMIS, 1.9 times the entire world reserves of 2023 according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)<\/a>, Mineral Commodity Summaries<\/a>, 2024<\/a>, “Lithium” (pp.110\u2013111, data for 2023), considered internationally as the “Gold Standard” for such information, and 1.05 times the entire world reserves of 2025, according to USGS 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

We are thus faced with a strange mystery. How much lithium does Bolivia actually hold as reserves? Do those reserves truly reach 39 million tonnes, or should we rather trust the USGS? How and why does the EC-RMIS reach such a figure for a mineral that is critical for the EU, notably used in Lithium batteries necessary for Electric Vehicles and electrification? Should all actors involved in the Lithium supply chain rush to Bolivia? Or are the reserves given by the EC-RMIS simply a mistake?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is what we shall investigate in this article. In the first part, we explain why it matters, in geopolitical terms, to know which actors produce which knowledge and what status that knowledge holds in the world. Along the way we present the USGS, the major actor in the production of knowledge on mineral resources and reserves worldwide (and thus on lithium), and the European Commission RMIS \u2013 Raw Materials Information System, alongside other European actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the second part we focus on the mystery itself \u2014 the discrepancies between the official figures given by the European Commission and those of the USGS \u2014 and seek to explain where the difference could come from. Along the way we highlight elements that should be strengthened to ensure decision-makers have access to better knowledge on this critical mineral.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n

Geopolitics for Lithium 2040: Eight Scenarios for the Upstream Supply Chain<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Art \u00a9 Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli [2026] –
jdlavoixcarli.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most reports on critical minerals acknowledge that geopolitics matters. This one focuses on what this actually means \u2014 through eight scenarios built on a causal model of 383 variables and 1,528 relationships, using structural analysis (Godet, revisited with network centrality measures). Read more<\/a>…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Official sources, knowledge production and geopolitics<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Why the source of knowledge matters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As political scientists, we do not transform ourselves into geologists or resource-and-reserve specialists. We rely on serious assessments provided by official sources and reputable experts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which reserves of Lithium \u2014 or of any other critical mineral or resource, for that matter \u2014 a country holds is key to any political and geopolitical analysis pertaining to the Lithium supply chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

Which reserves our own country holds, compared with the reserves held by other countries, in the context of demand and international competition for the resource, is critical for a government, as it determines its strategy regarding Lithium and its exploitation, through both domestic and international actors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Which reserves exist in the world, and what the status of our influence and diplomatic relations is with each country holding reserves \u2014 compared with the influence and relations of other countries also seeking Lithium \u2014 is key for any state needing Lithium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These calculations are then complicated by the international situation, geology, technology, the capital necessary for mining and extraction, the specifics of the supply chain, and so on. Yet for government officials and strategists, building a first picture of who holds what is the foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because this vision will determine what governments do regarding Lithium, international relations analysts, business strategists, and firms involved in the supply chain \u2014 from mining to capital investment \u2014 must also understand it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means that we must understand who officially says what and who sets the norms for knowledge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\n

The Architecture of the Critical Minerals Competition: Mapping Geopolitical Risk<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Art \u00a9 Jean-Dominique Lavoix-Carli [2026] –
jdlavoixcarli.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This strategic foresight report based on a 161-variable Causal Graph Model uses centrality measures to reveal the levers shaping the future of supply chain and how the system can structurally evolve.<\/em> Read more<\/a>…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

The IEA, the USGS, and the making of normative knowledge<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

For Lithium, the first two official sources to consult are the USGS for reserves and production, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) for supply and demand. For another mineral such as uranium, for example, we would also need to take into account the “recognised global reference on uranium,” jointly prepared by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)<\/a> \u2014 the “Red Book.”<\/p>\n\n\n