{"id":4462,"date":"2013-05-13T16:35:43","date_gmt":"2013-05-13T14:35:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=4462"},"modified":"2022-05-30T21:05:36","modified_gmt":"2022-05-30T19:05:36","slug":"%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e4%b8%ba%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-5-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af-1-%e6%97%a5%e5%86%85%e7%93%a6%e5%92%8c%e5%b9%b3%e8%80%8c%e8%ae%be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/13\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-5-scenario-1-peace-in-geneva\/","title":{"rendered":"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u60c5\u666f - 1\uff1a\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u7684\u548c\u5e73\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(2013\u5e745\u670822\u65e5\u66f4\u65b0\uff09\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u77e5\u9053\u548c\u4e86\u89e3\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f00\u59cb\u6982\u8ff0\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u548c\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u548c\u5e73\u524d\u666f\u7684\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u533a\u57df\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u5730\u7f18\u6218\u7565\u5c42\u9762\u6b63\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u6e05\u6670\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u60c5\u666f1\uff1a\u5728\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u4e3a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8fdb\u884c\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Secretary_Kerry_Meets_With_Russian_President_Putin_and_Foreign_Minister_Lavrov_2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"256\" height=\"162\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Secretary_Kerry_Meets_With_Russian_President_Putin_and_Foreign_Minister_Lavrov_2.jpg\" alt=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4f1a\u8c08\" class=\"wp-image-4471\" title=\"2013\u5e745\u67087\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u7ea6\u7ff0-\u514b\u91cc\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u9a7b\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5927\u4f7f\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14-\u9ea6\u514b\u798f\u5c14\u7684\u966a\u540c\u4e0b\uff0c\u5728\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u4f1a\u89c1\u4e86\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u603b\u7edf\u5f17\u62c9\u57fa\u7c73\u5c14-\u666e\u4eac\u548c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u957f\u8c22\u5c14\u76d6-\u62c9\u592b\u7f57\u592b\u3002 by \u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u52a1\u9662, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Secretary_Kerry_Meets_With_Russian_President_Putin_and_Foreign_Minister_Lavrov_2.jpg 256w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Secretary_Kerry_Meets_With_Russian_President_Putin_and_Foreign_Minister_Lavrov_2-250x158.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"> \u4fc3\u8fdb\u901a\u8fc7\u8c08\u5224\u89e3\u51b3\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u4f1a\u8c08\u53d6\u5f97\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u8c08\u5224\u5f00\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6b21\u60c5\u666f1.1:\u9664\u5723\u6218\u8005\u5916\u7684\u6240\u6709<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u88ab\u5e26\u5230\u684c\u5b50\u5468\u56f4\u7684\u6f14\u5458\u6709 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/22\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\u548c\u6700\u9ad8\u8054\u5408\u519b\u4e8b\u6307\u6325\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08SMC\uff09\u3002<\/a>\uff0c\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/22\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5df4\u6c99\u5c14-\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u7684\u653f\u6743<\/a> \u7531\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u653f\u6743\u6709\u9762\u5b50\u7684\u4eba\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5176\u4ed6\u5404\u65b9\u90fd\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u4eba\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u6765\u4ee3\u8868\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/29\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5%e7%9a%84%e6%83%85%e5%86%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e9%83%a8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u6700\u9ad8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08SKC\uff09<\/a> \u548c <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e5%9b%9b%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8428\u62c9\u83f2-\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u56e2\u4f53<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6b21\u60c5\u666f1.1.1:\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5916\u90e8\u548c\u5e73<\/h4>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Bombed_out_vehicles_Aleppo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"256\" height=\"139\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Bombed_out_vehicles_Aleppo.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4476\" title=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\u671f\u95f4\u88ab\u70b8\u6bc1\u7684\u8f66\u8f86\u963f\u52d2\u9887\uff0c2012\u5e7410\u67086\u65e5\uff0c\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u3002\u65af\u79d1\u7279-\u6ce2\u5e03\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u963f\u52d2\u9887\u7684\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5171\u4eab\u8d44\u6e90\u3002\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Bombed_out_vehicles_Aleppo.jpg 256w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Bombed_out_vehicles_Aleppo-250x136.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5916\u90e8\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c03\u505c\u7684\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u548c\u5e73\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u5723\u6218\u800c\u6218\u7684\u4eba\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u5347\u7ea7\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u6700\u6781\u7aef\u6d3e\u522b\u7684\u610f\u56fe\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u60f3\u589e\u52a0\u770b\u5230\u771f\u6b63\u79ef\u6781\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027--\u4e0e\u8bb8\u591a\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5ba3\u5e03\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u613f\u666f\u76f8\u5bf9\u5e94\uff0c\u7ef4\u62a4\u6cd5\u6cbb\u548c\u4eba\u6743--\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u786e\u4fdd\u5305\u62ec\u4ee5\u4e0b\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u56fd\u9645\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u5b58\u5728\u548c\u652f\u6301\uff08\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u4e0a\u8ff0\u516c\u5171\u8d64\u5b57\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff09\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6218\u7565\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5f53\u5fc5\u987b\u505c\u6b62\u7684\u662f\u6781\u7aef\u4e3b\u4e49\u6d3e\u522b\u7684 \"\u4eba\u6c11\u6218\u4e89 \"\u7684\u6709\u6548\u653f\u7b56\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u627f\u8bfa\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u5347\u7ea7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e00\u65e6\u4fc3\u6210\u548c\u5e73\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u4e5f\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u901f\u5ea6\u548c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6548\u7387\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u5386\u8fc7\u5185\u6218\u7684\u6c11\u65cf\u7684\u9ad8\u5ea6\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b97\u6559\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5e94\u8be5\u907f\u514d\u8150\u8d25\u548c\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u5e73\u5e72\u9884\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u529f\u80fd\u969c\u788d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u6240\u6709\u53cc\u8fb9\u548c\u591a\u8fb9\u5408\u4f5c\u6e20\u9053\uff0c\u5c3d\u5feb\u5f00\u59cb\u5236\u5b9a\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u5efa\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5212\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u3002\u4e3a\u786e\u4fdd\u548c\u5e73\u5efa\u8bbe\u8fdb\u7a0b\u5f97\u5230\u59a5\u5584\u5b9e\u65bd\uff0c\u5e94\u4ece\u4e00\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u89c4\u5212\u548c\u6784\u5efa\u53ef\u64cd\u4f5c\u7684\u9884\u8b66\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Damascus_Checkpoint.jpeg.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"256\" height=\"168\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Damascus_Checkpoint.jpeg.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4470\" title=\"2012\u5e741\u670814\u65e5\uff0c\u5927\u9a6c\u58eb\u9769\u68c0\u67e5\u7ad9\u3002\u7167\u7247\u7531VOA\u4e2d\u4e1c\u8bb0\u8005\u4f0a\u4e3d\u838e\u767d-\u963f\u7f57\u7279\u5728\u653f\u5e9c\u62a4\u9001\u4e0b\u7a7f\u8d8a\u5927\u9a6c\u58eb\u9769\u65f6\u62cd\u6444\uff0c\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5a92\u4f53\u5171\u4eab\u3002\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Damascus_Checkpoint.jpeg.jpeg 256w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Damascus_Checkpoint.jpeg-250x164.jpeg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5230\u5341\u5e74\u4ecd\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u975e\u5e38\u5fae\u5999\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u91cd\u65b0\u5347\u7ea7\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u52a0\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6b21\u60c5\u666f1.1.2.\uff1a\u56de\u5230\u5185\u6218--\u5723\u6218\u8005\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8c08\u5224\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u518d\u6b21\u9677\u5165\u5185\u6218\uff0c\u4f46\u6761\u4ef6\u6709\u6240\u6539\u53d8\uff1a\u6839\u636e\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u53c2\u4e0e\u65b9\u90fd\u5c06\u4ed8\u51fa\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002\u5168\u7403\u5723\u6218\u7ec4\u7ec7\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53d7\u76ca\u6700\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6b21\u7ea7\u65b9\u68481.2.\uff1a\u9664\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u6d3e\u5916\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4eba<\/h3>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Syrian_National_Coalition_Members_11-11-2012_Press_photo.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"256\" height=\"113\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Syrian_National_Coalition_Members_11-11-2012_Press_photo.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4472\" title=\"2012\u5e7411\u670818\u65e5\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u529b\u91cf\u5168\u56fd\u8054\u76df\u6210\u5458\u5728\u5361\u5854\u5c14\u591a\u54c8\u7684\u7167\u7247\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u56fd\u5bb6\u8054\u76df\uff0cCC-BY-SA-2.0\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5171\u4eab\u8d44\u6e90\u3002 \" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Syrian_National_Coalition_Members_11-11-2012_Press_photo.jpg 256w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Syrian_National_Coalition_Members_11-11-2012_Press_photo-250x110.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8c08\u5224\u684c\u65c1\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u662f\u5168\u56fd\u5927\u4f1a\u515a\u548cSMC\uff0c\u5df4\u6c99\u5c14-\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u7684\u4ee3\u8868\u662f\u8be5\u653f\u6743\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u9762\u5b50\u4eba\u7269\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5176\u4ed6\u5404\u65b9\u90fd\u80fd\u63a5\u53d7\u7684\u4eba\uff08\u5047\u8bbe\u5b58\u5728\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u4eba\uff09\u4ee5\u53caSKC\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u56e2\u4f53\uff08\u5168\u90e8\u6216\u5927\u90e8\u5206\uff09\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0eSMC\u6709\u8054\u7cfb\u7684\u56e2\u4f53\uff0c\u5c06\u62d2\u7edd\u53c2\u52a0\u8c08\u5224\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6b21\u60c5\u666f1.2.1.\u3002\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u975e\u5e38\u8106\u5f31\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u548c\u5e73<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8c08\u5224\u6210\u529f\u4e86\u3002\u65a1\u65cb\u51fa\u6765\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u548c\u5e73\u66f4\u52a0\u8106\u5f31\u3002\u6210\u529f\u5b9e\u65bd\u548c\u5e73\u7684\u524d\u666f\u5c06\u5927\u5927\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u5728\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u573a\u666f\uff081.1.1\uff09\u4e2d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u6240\u6709\u98ce\u9669\u90fd\u5c06\u88ab\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u5728\u6743\u529b\u6c34\u5e73\uff08\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u519b\u961f\u548c\u884c\u52a8\uff09\u4e0e\u6b21\u60c5\u666f1.1.1\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c06\u4e0e\u8428\u62c9\u83f2-\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u56e2\u4f53\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u884c\u52a8\u6210\u53cd\u6bd4\uff0c\u4ece\u53ea\u62d2\u7edd\u53c2\u4e0e\u8c08\u5224\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u5230\u79ef\u6781\u8c34\u8d23\u548c\u6253\u51fb\u4ed6\u4eec\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u589e\u52a0\u6210\u529f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u6309\u6bd4\u4f8b\u63d0\u9ad8\u9002\u7528\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5fc5\u987b\u589e\u52a0\u8fd9\u79cd\u6743\u529b\u6240\u9700\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\u5ea6\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u90e8\u961f\u548c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6587\u804c\u4eba\u5458\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u5c06\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5728\u66f4\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6295\u5165\u5230\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6b21\u60c5\u666f1.2.2.\uff1a\u56de\u5230\u5185\u6218--\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u65af\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff1f<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8c08\u5224\u5931\u8d25\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u518d\u6b21\u88ab\u62d6\u5165\u5185\u6218\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e0e1.1.2\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4f46\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u7ec4\u7ec7\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u5927\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662f\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u8fd8\u662f\u5723\u6218\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4f30\u8ba1\u60c5\u666f1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u9ad8\u770b\u5230\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff1f  \u6709\u54ea\u4e9b\u652f\u6301\u6027\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u60c5\u666f1\u7684\u5408\u7406\u6027\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5185\u6218\u4ecd\u5728\u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c2012\/2013\u5e74\u51ac\u5b63\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u6f14\u53d8\u548c\u52a8\u6001\u6709\u5229\u4e8e\u56fd\u9645\u5927\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u8c08\u5224\uff08\u89c1\u672c\u62a5\u544a\u672b\u5c3e\uff09\u3002&nbsp;<a title=\"\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff084\uff09--\u4e8b\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e5%9b%9b%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e16\u5b50<\/a>);<\/li><li>\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u5bb3\u6015\u770b\u5230\u5316\u5b66\u6b66\u5668\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4f7f\u7528\u548c\u6269\u6563\u3002<\/li><li>\u5916\u90e8\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u51b2\u7a81\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8513\u5ef6\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5176\u533a\u57df\u548c\u5168\u7403\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5fc5\u7136\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u652f\u6301&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e5%9b%9b%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u57fa\u5730\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5173\u7cfb 4\u6708\u58f0\u660e<\/a>\u9ece\u5df4\u5ae9\u771f\u4e3b\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u54c8\u6851-\u7eb3\u65af\u9c81\u62c9\uff08Hassan Nasrallah\uff09\u53d1\u8868\u58f0\u660e\uff0c\u627f\u8ba4\u4ed6\u7684\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9664\u4e86\u5df4\u6c99\u5c14-\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u4e4b\u5916\u8fd8\u5728\u6218\u6597\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/world\/2013\/apr\/30\/hezbollah-syria-uprising-nasrallah\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e03\u83b1\u514b\u548c\u7f57\u4f2f\u8328\uff0c\u300a\u536b\u62a5\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670830\u65e5<\/a>)\uff0c5\u67083\u65e5\u548c5\u65e5\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u653b\u51fb(\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u7684\u6709\u8da3\u5206\u6790)\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2013\/05\/airstrike-in-syria-big-hint-to-iran.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ben Caspit, 2013\u5e745\u67085\u65e5, AlMonitor<\/a>)\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u662f2013\u5e745\u670811\u65e5\u5bf9\u571f\u8033\u5176\u96f7\u6c49\u5229\u9547\u7684\u6050\u6016\u88ad\u51fb(Reyhanli)\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2013\/05\/reyhanli-bombing-turkey-syria-policy.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Daloglu, 12 May 2013 AlMonitor<\/a>)\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u4e5f\u4e0e\u96be\u6c11\u95ee\u9898\u53ca\u5176\u5bf9\u90bb\u56fd\u7684\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u5f71\u54cd\u6709\u5173\u3002<\/li><li>\u96be\u4ee5\u8fc5\u901f\u3001\u6709\u6548\u5730\u5b9e\u65bd\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6210\u529f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5f88\u5927\u3002\u5728\u6f5c\u5728\u5e72\u9884\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u9009\u6c11\u4e2d\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u7f3a\u4e4f\u660e\u786e\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u591a\u56fd\u4fa8\u6c11\u548c\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u707e\u96be\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u610f\u89c1\u5206\u5316\u3002<\/li><li>\u8003\u8651\u5230\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u7684\u516c\u5171\u8d64\u5b57\u95ee\u9898\u548c\u9762\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u6311\u6218\u901a\u5e38\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\uff08\u51cf\u5c11\u516c\u5171\u5f00\u652f\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u79c1\u6709\u5316\uff09\uff0c\u5e72\u9884\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/li><li>\u5bfc\u81f4\u5916\u4ea4\u90e8\u957f\u8c22\u5c14\u76d6-\u62c9\u592b\u7f57\u592b\u548c\u56fd\u52a1\u537f\u7ea6\u7ff0-\u514b\u91cc\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5df2\u540c\u610f \"\u52aa\u529b\u53ec\u5f00\u4e00\u6b21\u56fd\u9645\u4f1a\u8bae\uff0c\u4ee5\u5bfb\u6c42\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\"\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u7ee7\u7eed\u671d\u7740\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u5f00\u5c55\u5916\u4ea4\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-middle-east-22430063\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u82f1\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u516c\u53f8\uff0c2013\u5e745\u67087\u65e5<\/a>)\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u5173\u5404\u65b9\u4e4b\u95f4\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u5916\u4ea4\u4ea4\u6d41\u3002<\/li><li>Increased violence and multiplication of attacks\u00a0\u2013&nbsp;<strong>\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u70b9<\/strong>&nbsp;- \u4f1a&nbsp;<strong>\u4e0d\u662f<\/strong>&nbsp;\u662f\u8868\u660e\u4f1a\u8c08\u6700\u7ec8\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b9e\u73b0\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u8868\u660e\u548c\u5e73\u8c08\u5224\u6b63\u5728\u7834\u88c2\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u4f1a\u5728\u8c08\u5224\u684c\u4e0a\u5bfb\u6c42\u6700\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5730\u4f4d\u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u6218\u6597\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u3002\u91cd\u65b0\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u6218\u6597\u5e94\u8be5\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u6574\u4e2a\u8c08\u5224\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\uff08\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\uff09\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/li><li>\u54ea\u4e9b\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u5fc5\u987b\u53c2\u4e0e\uff1f\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5f53\u5730\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u7684\u591a\u6837\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u7279\u522b\u5fae\u5999\u3001\u5173\u952e\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8bb8\u591a\u8ba8\u8bba\u3001\u58f0\u660e\u3001\u8ba8\u4ef7\u8fd8\u4ef7\u548c\u66f2\u6298\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4e24\u4e2a\u58f0\u660e\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u671f\u5f85\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002\n<ul>\n<li>\u524d\u603b\u7edf\u83ab\u963f\u5179-\u54c8\u63d0\u535c\uff08Moaz Al-Khatib\uff09\u3002&nbsp;<a title=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff082\uff09--\u4e8b\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/22\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u529b\u91cf\u5168\u56fd\u8054\u76df\uff08NC<\/a>)\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\"\u6211\u4eec\u62d2\u7edd\u4efb\u4f55\u6fc0\u8fdb\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u5e76\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u6392\u65a5\u4ed6\u4eec\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u6709\u6743\u5229\u8bf4\u8bdd\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u4e0e\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fdb\u884c\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\uff0c\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u6bd4\u6574\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u66f4\u6709\u4ef7\u503c\"(<a href=\"http:\/\/www.thenational.ae\/news\/world\/middle-east\/former-snc-chief-says-islamic-hardliners-should-be-included\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Phil Sands, The National, 2013\u5e745\u67089\u65e5<\/a>).\u8428\u62c9\u83f2-\u5723\u6218\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u53c2\u4e0e\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u906d\u5230\u56fd\u9645\u52bf\u529b\u548c\u5317\u7ea6\u90e8\u5206\u6d3e\u522b\u7684\u62d2\u7edd\uff0c\u4f46\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u53ef\u4ee5\u8fdb\u884c\u79d8\u5bc6\u5bf9\u8bdd\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5411\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ec4\u7ec7\u63d0\u51fa\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u963f\u535c\u675c\u52d2-\u5361\u5fb7\u5c14-\u8428\u5229\u8d6b\uff08Abdul Qader Saleh\uff09\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u4ee4\u4eba\u60ca\u8bb6\uff0c\u4ed6\u662f \"Al-Tawhid\u65c5 \"\u7684\u6307\u6325\u5b98\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u540d\u6210\u5458\u3002&nbsp;<a title=\"\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff084\uff09--\u4e8b\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e5%9b%9b%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u89e3\u653e\u9635\u7ebf<\/a>&nbsp;\u5411 \"\u571f\u8033\u5176Cihan\u65b0\u95fb\u793e \"\u6307\u8d23\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u9500\u6bc1\u4e86\u5373\u5c06\u88ab \"\u53db\u519b \"\u7f34\u83b7\u7684\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5373\u5c06\u5230\u8fbe\u771f\u4e3b\u515a\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4e0e\u4f0a\u6717\u548c\u771f\u4e3b\u515a\u7ad9\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u963f\u8428\u5fb7(<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ynetnews.com\/articles\/0,7340,L-4379384,00.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ynet, 13 May 2013<\/a>)\u53ef\u80fd\u9884\u793a\u7740SLF\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u5f3a\u786c\uff08Lund, 2013: 27\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u58f0\u660e\u53ef\u80fd\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\u4e3a\u62d2\u7edd\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u8c08\u5224\u6216\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u8ba8\u4ef7\u8fd8\u4ef7\u5730\u4f4d\u5960\u5b9a\u57fa\u7840\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u60c5\u666f2\uff1a\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u6ca1\u6709\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5916\u4ea4\u8c08\u5224\u5931\u8d25......\u3002 <a title=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff085\uff09--\u60c5\u666f2--\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u6ca1\u6709\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/20\/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-5-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af-2-%e6%b2%a1%e6%9c%89%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e4%ba%ba%e5%9c%a8%e6%97%a5%e5%86%85%e7%93%a6\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5f85\u7eed\u3002<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">--<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u4e66\u76ee\u548c\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\u5373\u5c06\u516c\u5e03\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(2013\u5e745\u670822\u65e5\u66f4\u65b0\uff09\u65e2\u7136\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u77e5\u9053\u5e76\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f00\u59cb\u52fe\u52d2\u51fa\u5404\u79cd\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5408\u7406\u672a\u6765\u548c\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u548c\u5e73\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u5176\u6b21\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u533a\u57df\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u533a\u57df\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u5730\u7f18\u6218\u7565\u5c42\u9762...... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/13\/strategic-intelligence-assessment-for-syria-5-scenario-1-peace-in-geneva\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u60c5\u666f--1\uff1a\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u7684\u548c\u5e73\uff1f\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2499,3247,252],"tags":[166,1602,1601,1599,156,170,470,91,304,299,612,1632,1828,220,1627,190,1600,2058,446,2175,522,348],"class_list":["post-4462","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-scenarios-real-world-examples","category-syria","tag-civil-war","tag-conflict","tag-constructive-peace","tag-fog-of-war","tag-future","tag-geopolitics","tag-hezbollah","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-jihad","tag-middle-east","tag-pecae-building","tag-regional-integration","tag-russia","tag-salafi","tag-scenarios","tag-strategic-environment","tag-syria-issues","tag-turkey","tag-u-s","tag-war","tag-wmd","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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prospects for peace over the short to medium term, and second the regional implications of those scenarios, as the regional and even global geostrategic dimensions &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cScenarios for Syria &#8211; 1: Peace in Geneva?\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/13\/\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30-\u4e3a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a-5-\u60c5\u666f-1-\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u548c\u5e73\u800c\u8bbe\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-05-13T14:35:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-05-30T19:05:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" 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