{"id":4660,"date":"2013-06-24T02:12:15","date_gmt":"2013-06-24T00:12:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=4660"},"modified":"2022-05-30T18:39:27","modified_gmt":"2022-05-30T16:39:27","slug":"%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/the-syrian-war-bibliography-and-sources\/","title":{"rendered":"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89--\u4e66\u76ee\u548c\u8d44\u6599"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5185\u5bb9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group textfutura\" style=\"font-size:0.8em\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"#refugees\">\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u5458\u3001\u96be\u6c11\u548c\u5883\u5185\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\u8005<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#analysis\">\u65b0\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u6536\u96c6<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#syriandom\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u6218\u573a<\/a><ol><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#General Resources and Blogs\">\u4e00\u822c\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u535a\u5ba2<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Causes of conflict\">\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#General Syrian War\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u6982\u51b5<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Actors\">\u6f14\u5458<\/a><ol><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#NC, SJMCC or SMC, and FSA*\">NC\uff0cSJMCC\u6216SMC\uff0c\u548cFSA*\u3002<\/a> <ol><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#General\">\u4e00\u822c<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Muslim Brotherhood\">\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5144\u5f1f\u4f1a<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Sufism\">\u82cf\u83f2\u4e3b\u4e49<\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Pro Al-Assad Groups\">\u652f\u6301\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u7684\u56e2\u4f53<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Salafi and Sunni Islamist\">\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u548c\u900a\u5c3c\u6d3e\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Jihadi in Syria\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5723\u6218\u8005<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Kurds\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Alawites\">Alawites<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Christians\">\u57fa\u7763\u5f92<\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Maps\">\u5730\u56fe<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#scenarios\">\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u8bbe\u60f3<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/#Some Primary Sources\">\u4e00\u4e9b\u539f\u59cb\u8d44\u6599<\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/li><\/ol>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a id=\"Casualties, refugees and internally displaced people\" name=\"Casualties, refugees and internally displaced people\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"refugees\">\u4f24\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u3001\u96be\u6c11\u548c\u5883\u5185\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\u8005\u3001\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u63f4\u52a9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/2013-03-02_Gravestone_without_name_fallen_teddy_bear_symbolising_child_and_children_killed_by_war_stone_with_painted_syrian_flag.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aBernd Schwabe in Hannover (\u81ea\u6709\u4f5c\u54c1), CC-BY-SA-3.0, via Wikimedia Commons\" width=\"256\" height=\"341\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4683 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/2013-03-02_Gravestone_without_name_fallen_teddy_bear_symbolising_child_and_children_killed_by_war_stone_with_painted_syrian_flag.jpg\" alt=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u5185\u6218a\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/2013-03-02_Gravestone_without_name_fallen_teddy_bear_symbolising_child_and_children_killed_by_war_stone_with_painted_syrian_flag.jpg 256w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/2013-03-02_Gravestone_without_name_fallen_teddy_bear_symbolising_child_and_children_killed_by_war_stone_with_painted_syrian_flag-250x333.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/2013-03-02_Gravestone_without_name_fallen_teddy_bear_symbolising_child_and_children_killed_by_war_stone_with_painted_syrian_flag-225x300.jpg 225w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/><\/a>\u96be\u6c11\u7f72-&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/data.unhcr.org\/syrianrefugees\/regional.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5730\u533a\u96be\u6c11\u54cd\u5e94 - \u673a\u6784\u95f4\u4fe1\u606f\u5171\u4eab\u95e8\u6237<\/a><\/li><li>\u5185\u90e8\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\u95ee\u9898\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e2d\u5fc3- <a href=\"http:\/\/www.internal-displacement.org\/countries\/syria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a<\/a><\/li><li>\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u9645\u5f00\u53d1\u7f72- <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usaid.gov\/what-we-do\/working-crises-and-conflict\/responding-times-crisis\/where-we-work\/syria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a<\/a><\/li><li>\u6c49\u5a1c-\u65af\u7279\u5170\u5947\u548c\u673a\u6784\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/worldnews\/middleeast\/syria\/10118274\/Syria-death-toll-reaches-93000-UN.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8054\u5408\u56fd\uff1a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u8fbe\u52309.3\u4e07\u4eba<\/a>, 2013\u5e746\u670813\u65e5\u300a\u7535\u8baf\u62a5\u300b<\/li><li>\u56fd\u9645\u5371\u673a\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.crisisgroup.org\/~\/media\/Files\/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa\/Iraq%20Syria%20Lebanon\/Syria\/128-syrias-mutating-conflict.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4e0d\u65ad\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u51b2\u7a81<\/a>2012\u5e748\u6708<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/syrianrefugees.eu\/?page_id=163\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6b27\u6d32\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u96be\u6c11<\/a> - 2011\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u8f74<\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(2013\u5e747\u670815\u65e5)<\/span>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/acaps.org\/en\/pages\/syria-snap-project\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9700\u6c42\u5206\u6790<\/a> \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aACAPS<\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(2013\u5e747\u670815\u65e5)<\/span>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/syriahr.com\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u6743\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/a><a id=\"New type of analysis and collection\" name=\"New type of analysis and collection\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"analysis\">\u65b0\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u6536\u96c6<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Joanna Paraszczuk\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.enduringamerica.com\/home\/2013\/4\/2\/syria-feature-how-independent-analysts-are-breaking-the-stor.html\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4e13\u9898\u3002\"\u72ec\u7acb\u5206\u6790\u5e08 \"\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u6253\u7834\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\u7684<\/a>EA WorldViews, 2013\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/syriavideo.net\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u89c6\u9891<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HLavoix\/syria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u63a8\u7279\u540d\u5355<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GLiuni\/syria-experts\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4e13\u5bb6<\/a>&nbsp;\u7531&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GLiuni\">Gian Marco Liuni<\/a>&nbsp;(Twitter)<\/li><li><span style=\"color: #008000;\">(2014\u5e742\u670821\u65e5)<\/span>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.firstmilegeo.com\/case_studies\/aleppo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u963f\u52d2\u9887\u5b89\u5168<\/a> First Mile Geo\u516c\u53f8\uff08\"First Mile Geo\u516c\u53f8\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u6536\u96c6\u3001\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u6765\u81ea\u963f\u52d2\u9887\u5e02\u5185\u4ecd\u5728\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4eba\u7c7b\u60b2\u5267\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u9010\u4e2a\u8857\u9053\u8857\u533a\u7684\u6570\u636e\"\uff0c\u5176\u7ed3\u679c\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u3001\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u72b6\u51b5\u3001\u6cbb\u7406\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5fe0\u8bda\u5ea6\u6709\u5173\uff09\u3002<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/beta.syriadeeply.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6df1\u5165\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a<\/a>&nbsp;(\"\u63a2\u7d22\u56f4\u7ed5\u5168\u7403\u5371\u673a\u8bb2\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u65b0\u6a21\u5f0f\"\u3002- \u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u91c7\u8bbf\u3001\u8f6c\u8d34\u548c\u5b9a\u671f\u5ba1\u67e5\uff0c\u53c2\u8003\u4e3b\u8981\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4e13\u9898\u81ea2013\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u6ca1\u6709\u66f4\u65b0)<a id=\"The Syrian Civil War, mainly domestic, battlefield\" name=\"The Syrian Civil War, mainly domestic, battlefield\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"syriandom\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56fd\u5185\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u6218\u573a<a id=\"General Resources and Blogs\" name=\"General Resources and Blogs\"><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e00\u822c\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u535a\u5ba2<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u5fc5\u987b\u9605\u8bfb<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u7ea6\u4e66\u4e9a-\u5170\u8482\u65af\u7684&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a \u8bc4\u8bba<\/a>&nbsp;(\u7ecf\u5e38\u6027\u7684\u3001\u539f\u521b\u6027\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u5305\u62ec\u5bf9\u6709\u5173\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\uff09<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #008000;\">(2014\u5e741\u670817\u65e5)<\/span>&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/carnegieendowment.org\/syriaincrisis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a<\/a>&nbsp;- \u5361\u5185\u57fa\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u5e73\u57fa\u91d1\u4f1a\uff08\u5b9a\u671f\uff0c\u539f\u521b\u5206\u6790\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\uff09<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aymennjawad.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Aymenn Jawad Al Tamimi\u535a\u5ba2<\/a>&nbsp;(\u539f\u59cb\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u5723\u6218\u8005\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u6765\u6e90)<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u6218\u4e89\u7814\u7a76\u6240 -&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/project\/syria-project\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9879\u76ee<\/a>&nbsp;\u548c\uff082013\u5e7410\u67087\u65e5\uff09\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u65b0\u535a\u5ba2\uff08\u59cb\u4e8e2013\u5e748\u670830\u65e5\uff09\uff1a\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/iswsyria.blogspot.fr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6218\u4e89\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6700\u65b0\u6d88\u606f<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/brown-moses.blogspot.fr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e03\u6717-\u6469\u897f\u7684\u535a\u5ba2<\/a>&nbsp;- \u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u6b66\u5668\u3001\u90e8\u961f\u3002<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.memri.org\/middle-east-media-research-institute.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7814\u7a76\u6240&nbsp;<\/a>- \u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u539f\u59cb\u548c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u6587\u4ef6\u7684\u7ffb\u8bd1<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/jonathanspyer.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e54\u7eb3\u68ee-\u65af\u6d3e\u5c14\u535a\u5ba2<\/a>&nbsp;(\u4e0d\u5b9a\u671f)<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/syriareport.net\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u62a5\u544a<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u5176\u4ed6\uff08\u548c\u5076\u5c14\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u56fd\u4f1a\u7814\u7a76\u670d\u52a1\u62a5\u544a :&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fas.org\/sgp\/crs\/mideast\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e16\u754c<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.syrianrevolutiondigest.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u6587\u6458<\/a> (2013\u5e746\u670813\u65e5\u505c\u4e1a)<\/li><li>\u632a\u5a01\u5efa\u8bbe\u548c\u5e73\u8d44\u6e90\u4e2d\u5fc3- <a href=\"http:\/\/www.peacebuilding.no\/Regions\/Middle-East-and-North-Africa\/Syria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a<\/a><\/li><li>EAW\u4e16\u754c\u89c2 -&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.enduringamerica.com\/home\/category\/ea-middle-east-and-turkey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e2d\u4e1c\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176<\/a>&nbsp;(\u4e0d\u5b9a\u671f)<\/li><li>CFR- <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cfr.org\/region\/syria\/ri414\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u539f\u56e0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8482\u59c6-\u9ea6\u514b\u5510\u7eb3\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/blue-marble\/2013\/03\/how-climate-change-worsened-violence-syria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u5982\u4f55\u52a0\u5267\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u66b4\u529b<\/a>, 2013\u5e743\u67086\u65e5\uff0c\u743c\u65af\u6bcd\u4eb2\u3002<a href=\"http:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/blue-marble\/2013\/03\/how-climate-change-worsened-violence-syria\"><br><\/a><a id=\"General Syrian War\" name=\"General Syrian War\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u6982\u51b5<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><span style=\"color: #008000;\">(2014\u5e741\u670822\u65e5)<\/span> Basma Atassi\u548cMohammed Haddad\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/indepth\/interactive\/2013\/07\/20137188552345899.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7ed8\u5236\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u53db\u4e71\u5730\u56fe\u3002\u4e92\u52a8\u5f0f<\/a>\"--\u534a\u5c9b\u7535\u89c6\u53f0\uff0c2013\u5e747\u670819\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/blogsofwar.com\/2013\/03\/07\/interview-phillip-smyth-on-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u91c7\u8bbf\u3002Phillip Smyth\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u8bb2\u8bdd<\/a>, 2013\u5e743\u67087\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>CFR\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cfr.org\/syria\/syrias-continuing-civil-war\/p30168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u83ab\u5a1c-\u4e9a\u5e93\u6bd4\u5b89\u8c08\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5185\u6218<\/a>, 2013\u5e743\u67087\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Syrian_civil_war\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218<\/a> - \u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1<\/li><li>\u83ab\u5a1c-\u4e9a\u5e93\u6bd4\u5b89&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.stimson.org\/experts\/mona-yacoubian\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7cbe\u9009\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>, \u65af\u8482\u59c6\u68ee\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6f14\u5458<a id=\"NC, SJMCC or SMC, and FSA*\" name=\"NC, SJMCC or SMC, and FSA*\"><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NC\uff0cSJMCC\u6216SMC\uff0c\u548cFSA*\u3002<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>*\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u529b\u91cf\u5168\u56fd\u8054\u76df\uff08NC\uff09\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u8054\u5408\u519b\u4e8b\u6307\u6325\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08SJMCC\u6216SMC\uff09\u548c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u81ea\u7531\u519b\uff08FSA\uff09--\uff08\u89c1&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/22\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6e38\u620f\u72b6\u6001I<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u4e00\u822c<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(2013\u5e7410\u670821\u65e5)<\/span>&nbsp;<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.etilaf.org\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u548c\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u529b\u91cf\u5168\u56fd\u8054\u76df<\/a>&nbsp;\u5b98\u65b9\u7f51\u7ad9<\/li><li>\u4f0a\u4e3d\u838e\u767d-\u5965\u8d1d\u5409 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/report\/free-syrian-army\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u81ea\u7531\u519b<\/a>\u4e2d\u4e1c\u5b89\u5168\u62a5\u544a9\u300b\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff0c2013\u5e743\u6708\u3002<\/li><li>\u963f\u4ec0-\u4f2f\u66fc\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/syriasurvey.blogspot.fr\/2013\/03\/the-yarmouk-martyrs-brigade-and-capture.html?spref=tw\">\u4e9a\u5c14\u7a46\u514b\u70c8\u58eb\u65c5\u548c\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u90e8\u961f\u7684\u4fd8\u864f<\/a>\"\uff0c\u300a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8c03\u67e5\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e743\u67086\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>Ken Sofer\u548cJuliana Shafroth\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.americanprogress.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/StructureAndOrganizationSyrianOpposition-copy.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u548c\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u6b65\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c2013\u5e745\u670814\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u5927\u536b-\u4f0a\u683c\u5185\u4fee\u65af\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/in-defeat-at-qusair-syrian-rebels-painful-failings\/2013\/06\/06\/35cbe428-cef3-11e2-8845-d970ccb04497_story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5728\u5e93\u8d5b\u5c14\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u4e2d\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u53db\u519b\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u5931\u8d25<\/a>\"\uff0c\u300a\u534e\u76db\u987f\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e746\u67087\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(3\/07\/2013) <\/span>\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279-\u91d1\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.vice.com\/read\/interviews-with-syrian-army-defectors-0002345-v19n11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u91c7\u8bbf\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u519b\u961f\u53db\u9003\u8005--\u4eb2\u5386\u8005<\/a>, 2012\u5e7412\u6708, ViceBeta.<a id=\"Muslim Brotherhood\" name=\"Muslim Brotherhood\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5144\u5f1f\u4f1a<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>MEMRI- <a href=\"http:\/\/www.memri.org\/report\/en\/0\/0\/0\/0\/0\/0\/5432.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5144\u5f1f\u4f1a\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u5206\u9636\u6bb5\u5b9e\u65bd\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559\u6cd5 2011\u5e747\u67085\u65e5<\/a>.<a id=\"Sufism\" name=\"Sufism\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u82cf\u83f2\u4e3b\u4e49<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u9a6c\u4fee-\u5df4\u4f2f\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8bc4\u8bba <ol><li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/sheikh-al-yaqoubi-elected-to-the-nc\/\">\u8c22\u8d6b-\u4e9a\u5e93\u6bd4\u5f53\u9009\u4e3a\u5168\u56fd\u653f\u534f\u59d4\u5458--\u5168\u56fd\u653f\u534f\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u975e\u5144\u5f1f\u4f1a\u6210\u5458\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u4eba\u58eb<\/a>, \u661f\u671f\u4e09, 2013\u5e745\u670822\u65e5<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/brotherhood-figures-block-yaqoubis-appointment-post-confirmation\/\">\u5144\u5f1f\u4f1a\u4eba\u58eb\u963b\u6b62\u96c5\u5e93\u6bd4\u7684\u4efb\u547d\uff0c\u786e\u8ba4\u540e<\/a>, \u661f\u671f\u4e00, 2013\u5e745\u670827\u65e5<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/sheikh-muhammad-al-yaqoubi-interviewed-by-syria-comment\/\">\u8c22\u8d6b-\u7a46\u7f55\u9ed8\u5fb7-\u4e9a\u5e93\u6bd4\u63a5\u53d7\u300a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8bc4\u8bba\u300b\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf<\/a>, 2013\u5e745\u670830\u65e5\uff0c\u661f\u671f\u56db\u3002 <\/li><\/ol><\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/sufism-and-salafism-in-syria-by-itzchak-weismann\/\">\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559\u7684\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u548c\u82cf\u83f2\u5f71\u54cd\u7684\u7cfb\u5217\u62a5\u9053<\/a> \u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c2007\u5e74\u3002<\/li><li>\u4fdd\u7f57-\u5e73\u6258\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ojcs.siue.edu\/ojs\/index.php\/ssa\/article\/view\/1468\/492\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u4e2d\u7684\u82cf\u83f2\u4e3b\u4e49<\/a>\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7814\u7a76\u534f\u4f1a\u516c\u62a5\u300b\uff0c\u7b2c16\u5377\uff0c\u7b2c1\u671f\uff0c2011\u5e74\u3002<a id=\"Pro Al-Assad Groups\" name=\"Pro Al-Assad Groups\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u652f\u6301\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u7684\u56e2\u4f53<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(\u89c1&nbsp;<a title=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff082\uff09--\u4e8b\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206--\u4eb2\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u56e2\u4f53\u548c\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u529b\u91cf\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/22\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-2\/\">\u6e38\u620f\u72b6\u6001I<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u7ea6\u745f\u592b-\u970d\u5229\u8fea&nbsp;<em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.understandingwar.org\/report\/assad-regime\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\uff1a\u4ece\u53cd\u53db\u4e71\u5230\u5185\u6218<\/a>,&nbsp;<\/em>2013\u5e743\u6708\uff0cISW\u3002<\/li><li>\u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/world\/186769--quot-hezbollah-bites-on-granite-in-syria-quot\">\u771f\u4e3b\u515a\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u54ac\u4f4f\u82b1\u5c97\u5ca9\u4e0d\u653e<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e745\u670827\u65e5\uff0c\uff08\u6700\u540e\u66f4\u65b0\u65f6\u95f4\uff1a2013\u5e745\u670828\u65e501:45\uff09\uff0c\u963f\u7eb3\u591a\u5362\u673a\u6784\u3002<\/li><li>\u6770\u91cc\u7c73-M-\u590f\u666e\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/fpc.state.gov\/documents\/organization\/171370.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u52a8\u8361\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bf9\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u7684\u5236\u88c1<\/a>\uff0c2011\u5e748\u67089\u65e5\uff0cCRS\u3002<\/li><li>\u67ef\u514b-S-\u574e\u8d1d\u5c14&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/udini.proquest.com\/view\/civil-military-relations-and-pqid:1609302961\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u519b\u6c11\u5173\u7cfb\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u3002\u5bf9\u57c3\u53ca\u3001\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u548c\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u519b\u961f\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u5316\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4ef7\u503c\u89c2\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u7814\u7a76<\/a>, 2009\u5e74\uff0c\u5b66\u4f4d\u8bba\u6587\u3002<\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(2\/07\/2013)<\/span> \u82cf\u963f\u8fbe-\u8428\u5229\u8d6b\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2013\/04\/10\/us-syria-crisis-iraq-idUSBRE9390OB20130410\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u4ec0\u53f6\u6d3e\u6b66\u88c5\u5206\u5b50\u5f00\u59cb\u627f\u8ba4\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/a>, 2013\u5e744\u670810\u65e5\uff0c\u8def\u900f\u793e\u3002<\/li><li><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(2\/07\/2013)<\/span>&nbsp;\u83ab\u5a1c-\u9a6c\u54c8\u8302\u5fb7\uff0c\u548c\u9a6c\u4e01-\u4e18\u6d1b\u592b\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/world\/2013\/jun\/04\/syria-islamic-sunni-shia-shrines-volunteers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u6269\u5927\u4e86\u900a\u5c3c\u6d3e\u548c\u4ec0\u53f6\u6d3e\u7684\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u5916\u56fd\u5723\u6218\u8005\u52a0\u5165\u4e86\u4e89\u593a\u5723\u5730\u7684\u6218\u6597<\/a>\uff0c2013\u5e746\u67084\u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u536b\u62a5\u300b\u3002<a id=\"Salafi and Sunni Islamist\" name=\"Salafi and Sunni Islamist\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u548c\u900a\u5c3c\u6d3e\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(\u89c1 <a title=\"\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff084\uff09--\u4e8b\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e5%9b%9b%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\">\u7ade\u6280\u72b6\u6001III<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u963f\u9686-\u4f26\u5fb7\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ui.se\/eng\/Files.aspx?f_id=86861\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u53db\u4e71\u5206\u5b50\uff1a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u9635\u7ebf\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77<\/a>UI\u4e0d\u5b9a\u671f\u6587\u4ef617\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u56fd\u9645\u4e8b\u52a1\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff0c2013\u5e743\u6708\u3002<\/li><li>\u963f\u9a6c\u5c14-\u963f\u535c\u675c\u52d2\u54c8\u7c73\u5fb7\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.syrianrevolutiondigest.com\/p\/syria-2013-rise-of-warlords.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2013\u5e74\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3002\u519b\u9600\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77<\/a>\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9769\u547d\u6587\u6458\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e741\u670815\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u54c8\u5c3c\u4e9a-\u7a46\u5c14\u5854\u8fbe\u548c\u91cc\u514b-\u683c\u62c9\u5fb7\u65af\u901a\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2013\/04\/13\/world\/middleeast\/syrian-rebels-break-with-radical-group.html?pagewanted=all\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u53cd\u653f\u5e9c\u6b66\u88c5\u56e0 \"\u57fa\u5730 \"\u7ec4\u7ec7\u8054\u76df\u4e0e\u96c6\u56e2\u51b3\u88c2<\/a>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670812\u65e5\u3002<a id=\"Jihadi in Syria\" name=\"Jihadi in Syria\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5723\u6218\u8005<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(\u89c1&nbsp;<a title=\"\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff084\uff09--\u4e8b\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7b2c\u4e09\u90e8\u5206\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e5%9b%9b%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\">\u7ade\u6280\u72b6\u6001III<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u963f\u4f0a\u66fc-\u8d3e\u74e6\u5fb7-\u5854\u7c73\u7c73\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/?p=18186\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5723\u6218<\/a>, <\/li><li>\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002&nbsp;<\/li><li>2013\u5e743\u670820\u65e5<\/li><li>\u9a6c\u4fee-\u5df4\u4f2f <a title=\"\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5ba3\u5e03\u6210\u7acb\" href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/al-qaida-and-jabhat-al-nusra-declare-islamic-state-in-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5ba3\u5e03\u6210\u7acb<\/a>\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670814\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/pietervanostaeyen.wordpress.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u76ae\u7279-\u8303-\u5965\u65af\u6cf0\u56e0\u7684\u535a\u5ba2<\/a><\/li><li>Aaron Y.\u6cfd\u6797\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/icsr.info\/2013\/04\/icsr-insight-european-foreign-fighters-in-syria-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b\u3002\u6b27\u6d32\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u6218\u6597\u4eba\u5458<\/a>, 2013\u5e744\u67082\u65e5, ICSR<\/li><li>Aaron Y.Zelin, Evan F. Kohlmann, Laith al-Khouri, <a href=\"http:\/\/azelin.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/06\/convoy-of-martyrs-in-the-levant-a-joint-study-charting-the-evolving-role-of-sunni-foreign-fighters-in-the-armed-uprising-against-the-assad-regime-in-syria2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9ece\u51e1\u7279\u5730\u533a\u7684\u6b89\u9053\u8005\u8f66\u961f<\/a>:\u900a\u5c3c\u6d3e\u5916\u56fd\u6218\u58eb\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u53cd\u5bf9\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u7684\u6b66\u88c5\u8d77\u4e49\u4e2d\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u8054\u5408\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u300b\uff0c2013\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u95ea\u70b9\u4f19\u4f34\u3002<\/li><li>\u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/english.ruvr.ru\/2013_05_06\/Kadyrov-confirms-several-Chechens-fight-in-Syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5361\u5fb7\u7f57\u592b\u8bc1\u5b9e\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u8f66\u81e3\u4eba\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4f5c\u6218<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e745\u67086\u65e5\uff0c\u5854\u65af\u793e\uff0c\u300a\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4e4b\u58f0\u300b\u3002<\/li><li>\u8fbe\u8389\u4e9a-\u7d22\u6d1b\u7ef4\u8036\u5a03\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2013\/04\/chechen-jihad-syria-boston-bombing.html#ixzz2SaqSuVzo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8f66\u81e3\u4eba\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5723\u6218\u8005\u4e2d<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670826\u65e5\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/contents\/authors\/daria-solovieva.html\">Al-Monitor<\/a>.<\/li><li>Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/brown-moses.blogspot.fr\/2013\/05\/jabhat-al-nusra-and-islamic-state-of.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u52aa\u65af\u62c9\u9635\u7ebf\u548c\u4f0a\u62c9\u514b\u548c\u6c99\u59c6\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e745\u670817\u65e5\uff0c\u5e03\u6717-\u6469\u897f\u535a\u5ba2\u3002<\/li><li>Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.meforum.org\/3099\/moderate-islamist\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6e29\u548c\u7684 \"\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005 \"\u610f\u5473\u7740\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<\/li><li>2011\u5e7411\u670817\u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u8036\u8def\u6492\u51b7\u90ae\u62a5<\/li><li><b>\u963f\u9686-\u4f26\u5fb7\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.joshualandis.com\/blog\/is-jabhat-al-nosra-breaking-apart\/\">Jabhat al-Nosra\u6b63\u5728\u89e3\u4f53\uff1f<\/a>\u201c,<\/b>&nbsp;2013\u5e745\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002<\/li><li>\u963f\u4f0a\u66fc-\u8d3e\u74e6\u5fb7-\u5854\u7c73\u7c73\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aymennjawad.org\/2013\/05\/syria-jihad-and-the-battle-for-qusayr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3002\u5723\u6218\u4e0e\u5e93\u8d5b\u5c14\u4e4b\u6218<\/a>, 2013\u5e745\u670827\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u6b27\u6d32\u5211\u8b66\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.europol.europa.eu\/content\/te-sat-2013-eu-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TE-SAT 2013<\/a>:\u6b27\u76df\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u5f62\u52bf\u548c\u8d8b\u52bf\u62a5\u544a<\/li><li>Christopher M. Blanchard,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.fas.org\/sgp\/crs\/terror\/RL32759.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u57fa\u5730\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002\u58f0\u660e\u548c\u4e0d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001<\/a>\uff0c2007\u5e747\u67089\u65e5\uff0cCRS\uff0c\u8ba2\u5355\u4ee3\u7801RL32759<\/li><li>\u96f7\u624e-\u6f58\u514b\u8d6b\u65af\u7279\u535a\u58eb\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rezapankhurst.net\/2011\/08\/understanding-calls-to-caliphate.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e86\u89e3\u5bf9\u54c8\u91cc\u53d1\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u547c\u5401<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"http:\/\/jihadology.net\/\">JIADOLOGY<\/a>:\u5723\u6218\u539f\u59cb\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548c\u7ffb\u8bd1\u670d\u52a1<a id=\"Kurds\" name=\"Kurds\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>(\u89c1&nbsp;<a title=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u7565\u60c5\u62a5\u8bc4\u4f30\uff083\uff09--\u4e8b\u6001\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206--\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/29\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5%e7%9a%84%e6%83%85%e5%86%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%ba%8c%e9%83%a8\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7ade\u6280\u72b6\u6001II<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u7f51\u7ad9<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mesop.de\/category\/west-kurdistan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MESOP - \u897f\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u65af\u5766<\/a>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mesop.de\/2013\/04\/21\/west-kurdistan-syria-kurdwatch-newsletter-april-2013\/\">\u897f\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u65af\u5766\uff08\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff09\u3002\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u89c2\u5bdf\u901a\u8baf - 2013\u5e744\u6708<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li><li>Wladimir van Wilgenburg\u7684\u535a\u5ba2\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/vvanwilgenburg.blogspot.fr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8de8\u56fd\u4e2d\u4e1c\u89c2\u5bdf\u5bb6<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u4e66\u7c4d\u3001\u62a5\u544a\u3001\u5e16\u5b50\u548c\u6587\u7ae0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"\u7531\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u97f3\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\u3002\u65af\u79d1\u7279-\u535a\u5e03\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u963f\u592b\u6797\u62a5\u9053\u3002\u516c\u5171\u9886\u57df\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ef4\u57fa\u5171\u4eab\u8d44\u6e90\" width=\"256\" height=\"141\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4682 alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/PYD_funeral_2_Afrin_Syria.jpg\" alt=\"\u5e73\u6c11\u515a\uff0c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/PYD_funeral_2_Afrin_Syria.jpg 256w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/PYD_funeral_2_Afrin_Syria-250x138.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 256px) 100vw, 256px\" \/>\u6258\u5c14\u8fea-\u7279\u6770\u5c14 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kurdipedia.org\/books\/74488.PDF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba<\/a>, Routledge, 2009 (pdf).<a href=\"http:\/\/www.kurdipedia.org\/books\/74488.PDF\"><br><\/a><\/li><li>Ilhan Tanir, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, and Omar Hossino,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/henryjacksonsociety.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/10\/HJS_Unity-or-PYD-Power-Play_-Report.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u56e2\u7ed3\u8fd8\u662fPYD\u7684\u6743\u529b\u6e38\u620f\uff1f\u57c3\u5c14\u6bd4\u52d2\u534f\u8bae\u540e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u7684\u52a8\u6001<\/a>\u4ea8\u5229-\u6770\u514b\u900a\u534f\u4f1a\uff0c2012\u5e7410\u670815\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/syriareport.net\/insurgents-declare-war-on-syrias-kurds\/\">\u53db\u4e71\u5206\u5b50\u5411\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u5ba3\u6218<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e745\u670827\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u4e9a\u5386\u5c71\u5fb7\u62c9-\u54c8\u5fb7\u68ee\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/syrian-kurds-fear-increasing-attacks-assad-forces-190729376.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u62c5\u5fc3\u6765\u81ea\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u90e8\u961f\u7684\u653b\u51fb\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670818\u65e5\uff0c\u8def\u900f\u793e\u3002<cite>&nbsp;<\/cite><\/li><li>AFP-JIJI, \"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.japantimes.co.jp\/news\/2013\/04\/23\/world\/kurdish-militia-decides-to-align-with-syria-rebels\/#.UXagYiuSDC4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u6c11\u5175\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e0e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u53db\u519b\u7ed3\u76df<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670823\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>Wladimir van Wilgenburg\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2013\/04\/kurdish-clashes-syria-pyd-kdp-pkk-ocalan-barzani.html#ixzz2RIdDjgDz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u56e2\u4f53\u4e4b\u95f4\u7206\u53d1\u51b2\u7a81<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e744\u67084\u65e5\uff0cAl-Monitor Iraq Pulse\u3002<\/li><li>&nbsp;Wladimir van Wilgenburg\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2013\/04\/conflict-intensifies-syrian-kurdish-region.html#ixzz2RN7Pfq3N\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u5730\u533a\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u6108\u6f14\u6108\u70c8<\/a>2013\u5e744\u67085\u65e5\uff0c\"Al-Monitor\"\u3002<\/li><li>\u56fe\u6797-\u8fbe\u6d1b\u683c\u9c81\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2013\/04\/talks-akp-pkk-turkey-kurdish-peace-process-move-ahead.html#ixzz2RNNaCwCw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u571f\u8033\u5176-\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u5de5\u4eba\u515a\u4f1a\u8c08\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0cAl-Monitor\u571f\u8033\u5176\u8109\u640f\u7f51<\/a>, 2013\u5e744\u67083\u65e5, Al-Monitor.<\/li><li>\u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/mideastwire.wordpress.com\/2013\/04\/18\/kurdish-pyd-leader-details-the-real-end-game-threat-in-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4ebaPYD\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8be6\u7ec6\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u7ec8\u7ed3\u6e38\u620f\u5a01\u80c1<\/a>\"\u6458\u81ea\u571f\u8033\u5176\u62a5\u7eb8\u300aRadikal\u300b\u5bf9\u6c11\u4e3b\u8054\u76df\u515a\uff08PYD\uff09\u8054\u5408\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8428\u5229\u8d6b-\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf...2013\u5e744\u670815\u65e5\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/mideastwire.wordpress.com\/\">Mideastwire\u535a\u5ba2<\/a>.<\/li><li><span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\">Bayram Sinkaya,&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/politics\/2013\/03\/iran-cautious-turkey-kurds.html#ixzz2RNRcI7ol\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4f0a\u6717\u4e0d\u5e0c\u671b\u571f\u8033\u5176\u89e3\u51b3\u5176\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u95ee\u9898\uff1f<\/a> \u4f5c\u8005\uff1a, 2013\u5e743\u670816\u65e5 <a title=\"\u70b9\u51fb\u8fd9\u91cc\u67e5\u770b\u6765\u81eaORSAM\uff08\u571f\u8033\u5176\uff09\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6587\u7ae0\" href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/about\/sources\/orsam\">ORSAM (\u571f\u8033\u5176)<\/a>\uff0c\u8f6c\u8d34\u4e8e\u3002  2013\u5e743\u670820\u65e5\uff0c\u7ffb\u8bd1\uff1aTimur Goksel\uff0cAl Monitor\u3002<\/li><li>Wladimir van Wilgenburg, \u4f0a\u6717\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u6c11\u519b\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\uff0c\u800c\u5fb7\u9ed1\u5170\u653f\u6743\u5728\u5d29\u6e83\uff0c2013\u5e741\u670831\u65e5\u3002 <em>\u5415\u9053<\/em>.<\/li><li>\u4e54\u7eb3\u68ee-\u65af\u6d3e\u5c14 <a href=\"http:\/\/jonathanspyer.com\/2013\/03\/09\/the-kurds-are-for-the-kurds\/\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba<\/a>,<b>&nbsp;<\/b>2013\u5e743\u67089\u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u6807\u51c6\u5468\u520a\u300b\u3002<\/li><li>\u4e54\u7eb3\u68ee-\u65af\u6d3e\u5c14&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/jonathanspyer.com\/2013\/05\/17\/erdogans-kurdish-gambit\/\">\u57c3\u5c14\u591a\u5b89\u7684\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u8d4c\u6ce8<\/a><b>,&nbsp;<\/b>2013\u5e745\u670817\u65e5\uff0c\u300a\u8036\u8def\u6492\u51b7\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u3002<\/li><li>\u963f\u5c24\u5e03-\u52aa\u91cc\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/rudaw.net\/english\/opinion\/190520131\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4ee5\u8272\u5217\u548c\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u65af\u5766\u3002\u4e24\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5730\u7406<\/a>, 19\/5\/2013, Rudaw<a id=\"Alawites\" name=\"Alawites\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alawites<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u9a6c\u4e01-W-\u5218\u6613\u65af\uff0c\uff08\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66\u5386\u53f2\u5730\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\uff09\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/geocurrents.info\/geopolitics\/confusion-about-syrias-alawites\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u963f\u62c9\u7ef4\u6d3e\u7684\u56f0\u60d1<\/a>\"\uff0c2011\u5e743\u670829\u65e5\uff0cGeoCurrents\u3002<a id=\"Christians\" name=\"Christians\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u57fa\u7763\u5f92<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u8ba9-\u963f\u9f50\u5179\uff0c\"<a href=\"http:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/pulse\/originals\/2013\/04\/syria-christians-threatened-ideology-geography.html#ixzz2RNAqYQWO\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u5f92\u53d7\u5230\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u548c\u5730\u7406\u73af\u5883\u7684\u5a01\u80c1<\/a>\"\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670823\u65e5\uff0cAl-Monitor Lebanon Pulse\u3002<a id=\"Maps\" name=\"Maps\"><\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5730\u56fe<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u7ef4\u57fa\u767e\u79d1\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Template:Syrian_civil_war_detailed_map\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218<\/a>&nbsp;\u6bcf\u6708\u66f4\u65b0<\/li><li>\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5730\u7406\u5b66\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.polgeonow.com\/search\/label\/syria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5730\u56fe \u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u51b2\u7a81<\/a>\uff0c\u5b9a\u671f\u66f4\u65b0<\/li><li>@2wainu&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/2wainu\/status\/256115995071098880\/photo\/1\/large\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u63a8\u7279\u5730\u56fe<\/a> 2012\u5e7410\u6708\uff08\u89c1\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u5fae\u535a\u6765\u6e90\uff09<\/li><li>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2013\/03\/13\/world\/middleeast\/a-snapshot-of-the-dispute-in-syria.html?ref=middleeast&amp;_r=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u4e89\u7aef\u5730\u56fe<\/a>, 2013\u5e743\u670812\u65e5<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a id=\"scenarios\" name=\"scenarios\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u524d\u7ebf\u3002 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/wgbh\/pages\/frontline\/foreign-affairs-defense\/syria-undercover\/interactive-map-syrias-uprising\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u6297\u8bae\u6d3b\u52a8<\/a> (2011\u5e743\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u81f311\u6708)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u8bbe\u60f3<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>\u6cf0\u5fb7-\u76d6\u4f26-\u5361\u5f6d\u7279\uff0c\"<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/the-skeptics\/four-syrian-scenarios-7307\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u56db\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5<\/a>\"\uff0c\uff08\u6ca1\u6709\u6307\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u6846\u67b6\uff09\u3002&nbsp;<em style=\"color: #000000;\">\u56fd\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca<\/em>\uff0c2012\u5e748\u67087\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>CGA\u65b9\u6848, \"<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/cgascenarios.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/08\/syria-scenarios-final.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SYRIA 2018<\/a>\"\uff0c\uff08\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u548c\u7814\u7a76\uff09\u7ebd\u7ea6\u5927\u5b66\u5168\u7403\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08CGA\uff09\uff0c2013\u5e748\u6708\u3002<\/li><li>\u83f2\u5229\u666e-\u970d\u5c14\u7279\u66fc\uff0c\"<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.terrorismanalysts.com\/pt\/index.php\/pot\/article\/view\/275\/554\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a--\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u548c\u4e24\u4e2a\u6700\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5<\/a>\u201c.&nbsp;<em style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5bf9\u6050\u6016\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<\/em>\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5317\u7f8e\u6d32\uff0c7, jun. 2013\u3002\u8bbf\u95ee\u65e5\u671f\u300219 Dec. 2013.<\/li><li>Jonathan Githens-Mazer\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c\"<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.exeter.ac.uk\/media\/universityofexeter\/strategyandsecurityinstitute\/reports\/Syria_Workshop_Web_Report_(with_quotes).pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff1a\u5176\u4ed6\u89c2\u70b9\u548c\u5bf9\u82f1\u56fd\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/a>\"\uff08\u81f32017\u5e74\u7684\u8bbe\u60f3\uff0c\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u62a5\u544a\uff09\uff0c\u57c3\u514b\u585e\u7279\u5927\u5b66\uff0c\u6218\u7565\u4e0e\u5b89\u5168\u7814\u7a76\u6240\uff0c2012\u5e7411\u6708\u3002<\/li><li>Floor Janssen\u7b49\u4eba\uff0c\"<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.clingendael.nl\/sites\/default\/files\/20120800_syria_2013_scenarios.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2013\u5e74\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u52a8\u8361\uff1f<\/a>\"\uff0c\uff08\u7814\u8ba8\u4f1a\u62a5\u544a\uff09\uff0cClingendael\u5b66\u9662\uff0c2012\u5e748\u6708\u3002<\/li><li>\u5e03\u83b1\u6069-\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14-\u8a79\u91d1\u65af\uff0c\"<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.rand.org\/blog\/2012\/08\/syrian-scenarios.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5<\/a>\"\uff0c\uff08\u6ca1\u6709\u6307\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u6846\u67b6\uff09\u3002&nbsp;<em style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5170\u5fb7\u535a\u5ba2<\/em>\uff0c\u5170\u5fb7\u516c\u53f8\uff0c2012\u5e748\u67088\u65e5\uff0c\u53e6\u89c1\u67e5\u5c14\u65af-\u5e03\u83b1\u5c14\uff0c\"\"\u3002<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.thebulletin.org\/ruinous-road-damascus-can-us-avoid-it\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e00\u6761\u901a\u5f80\u5927\u9a6c\u58eb\u9769\u7684\u6bc1\u706d\u4e4b\u8def\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u907f\u514d\u5417\uff1f<\/a>\u201c,&nbsp;<em style=\"color: #000000;\">\u539f\u5b50\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u516c\u62a5<\/em>, 2013\u5e749\u670827\u65e5\u3002<\/li><li>\u57c3\u83b1\u5a1c-\u62c9\u6c83\u514b\u65af\u3002&nbsp;<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/07\/15\/%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a-%e5%9c%a8%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%b7%e9%9b%be%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%ba%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%bd%9c%e5%9c%a8%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u4e2d\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u672a\u6765<\/a>\uff0c\uff08\u52302018\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5+\uff09\u3002&nbsp;<a style=\"font-style: normal;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/10\/07\/portal-to-strategic-intelligence-assessments-for-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u66f4\u65b0<\/a>&nbsp;\u5728\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\uff09\u3002&nbsp;<em style=\"color: #000000;\">\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790<\/em>\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a\uff0c2013\u5e747\u6708\u3002<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a id=\"Some Primary Sources\" name=\"Some Primary Sources\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">\u4e00\u4e9b\u539f\u59cb\u8d44\u6599<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/syriavideo.net\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u89c6\u9891<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/syriahr.com\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u6743\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ec4\u7ec7<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(12\/12\/2013)<\/span>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/syriaohr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba\u6743\u89c2\u5bdf\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684Facebook\u9875\u9762<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.znobia.com\/index.php?page=show_det&amp;id=16997\">\u4eb2\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u7684\u7f51\u7ad9\u540d\u4e3aZanobia<\/a> (\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6587)<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/documents.sy\/videos.php?id=1723&amp;lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6587\u4ef6<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ahraralsham.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-islamiya<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(09\/10\/13)&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/leuaaltawheed.com\/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D9%82%D9%85-1-%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81-%D9%88-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Liwa al-Tawhid (Tawhid\u65c5)<\/a> \u7f51\u7ad9<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.liveleak.com\/c\/syria\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u73b0\u573a\u6cc4\u5bc6--\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u9891\u9053&nbsp;<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/SyriaLiberationFront\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u89e3\u653e\u9635\u7ebf\u5728Facebook\u4e0a<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">(08\/07\/2013)<\/span>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Islamic.Syrian.Front\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u9635\u7ebf\u5728Facebook\u4e0a<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/news.siteintelgroup.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd<\/a>\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7f51\u4e0a\u5723\u6218\u6750\u6599\u7684\u534e\u76db\u987f\u7ec4\u7ec7\u3002<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ict.org.il\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u901a\u4fe1\u6280\u672f<\/a>&nbsp;Jihadis website monitoring group \u2013<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ict.org.il\/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=yWR-HgrY19Q%3D&amp;tabid=344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&nbsp;<\/a><span style=\"color: #333333; font-style: normal; line-height: 24px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ict.org.il\/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=yWR-HgrY19Q%3D&amp;tabid=344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6d1e\u5bdf\u529b 2012\u5e7412\u6708\u4e0a\u534a\u6708<\/a>&nbsp;<\/span><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.kavkazcenter.info\/eng\/about\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5361\u592b\u5361\u5179\u4e2d\u5fc3<\/a>:\u8f66\u81e3\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u673a\u6784\uff08\u72ec\u7acb\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\uff09\u3002<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/KtaybAlhaq\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u54c8\u514b\u8425\u7684\u805a\u4f1a<\/a> (Tajammou Kataeb al-Haqq) on Facebook<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/fisyria.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5883\u5185\u7684\u4fc4\u8bed\u5723\u6218\u5206\u5b50\u7f51\u7ad9<\/a><\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/jihadology.net\/\">JIADOLOGY<\/a>:\u5723\u6218\u539f\u59cb\u8d44\u6599\u7684\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e2d\u5fc3\u548c\u7ffb\u8bd1\u670d\u52a1<\/li><li style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/shaykhabulhuda\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sheikh al-Ya'qoubi\u7684Facebook\u9875\u9762<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a id=\"International Actors, Regionalization and the Syrian War\" name=\"International Actors, Regionalization and the Syrian War\"><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5185\u5bb9 \u4f24\u4ea1\u3001\u96be\u6c11\u548c\u5883\u5185\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\u8005 \u65b0\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u5206\u6790\u548c\u6536\u96c6 \u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5185\u6218\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56fd\u5185\uff0c\u6218\u573a \u4e00\u822c\u8d44\u6e90\u548c\u535a\u5ba2 \u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u539f\u56e0 \u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u8005 NC\uff0cSJMCC\u6216SMC\uff0c\u548cFSA* \u4e00\u822c\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5144\u5f1f\u4f1a \u82cf\u83f2\u4e3b\u4e49 \u4eb2\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u56e2\u4f53 \u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u548c\u900a\u5c3c\u6d3e\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u5723\u6218\u8005 \u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba \u963f\u62c9\u7ef4\u5179\u4eba \u57fa\u7763\u6559\u5f92 \u5730\u56fe ... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/the-syrian-war-bibliography-and-sources\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89--\u53c2\u8003\u4e66\u76ee\u548c\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2499,252],"tags":[18,166,1602,1601,1599,170,612,2560,1600,2058,522],"class_list":["post-4660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-syria","tag-bibliography","tag-civil-war","tag-conflict","tag-constructive-peace","tag-fog-of-war","tag-geopolitics","tag-middle-east","tag-open-access","tag-strategic-environment","tag-syria-issues","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Syrian 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\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cThe Syrian War &#8211; Bibliography and Sources\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89-\u4e66\u76ee\u548c\u8d44\u6599\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-06-24T00:12:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-05-30T16:39:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/900px-Flag_of_Syria_2011_combined-20141.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"448\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD 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