{"id":4906,"date":"2013-09-16T13:11:32","date_gmt":"2013-09-16T11:11:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=4906"},"modified":"2024-03-11T17:12:16","modified_gmt":"2024-03-11T16:12:16","slug":"%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb-%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e9%94%ae-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/16\/democracy-the-key-to-avoiding-future-wars-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff1f(2)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5eb7\u5fb7\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u8ffd\u6c42\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u516c\u6c11\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u7c7b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u63a2\u8ba8\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u771f\u6b63\u9075\u5b88\u6c11\u4e3b\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u884c\u4e8b\u3002 <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u53cd\u53db\uff0c\u4f55\u65f6\u53cd\u53db\uff1f\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u652f\u6301\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u662f\u54ea\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u53cd\u601d\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5b83\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u57c3\u53ca\u548c \"\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u89c9\u9192\"\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca2010\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u53ef\u4ee5\u9605\u8bfb <a title=\"\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff1f(1)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/09\/%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb-%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e9%94%ae-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a <a title=\"\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff1f(3)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/23\/%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb-%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e9%94%ae-3\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=4906\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u5eb7\u5fb7\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u5728\u4e09\u4e2a\u5c42\u9762\u4e0a\u8ffd\u6c42\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5185\u90e8\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u3001\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e4b\u95f4\u4ee5\u53ca\u56fd\u5bb6\u4e0e\u516c\u6c11\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u7c7b\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u63a2\u8ba8\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\u60f3\u8981\u771f\u6b63\u9075\u5b88\u6c11\u4e3b\u539f\u5219\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5982\u4f55\u884c\u4e8b\u3002 <\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p><!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u53cd\u53db\uff0c\u4f55\u65f6\u53cd\u53db\uff1f\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u5e94\u8be5\u652f\u6301\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u662f\u54ea\u79cd\u7c7b\u578b\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u7cfb\u5217\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5185\u53cd\u601d\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5b83\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u8054\u7cfb\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u3001\u57c3\u53ca\u548c \"\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u89c9\u9192\"\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca2010\u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u53ef\u4ee5\u9605\u8bfb <a title=\"\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff1f(1)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/09\/%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb-%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e9%94%ae-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u4e2a <a title=\"\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff1f(3)\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/23\/%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb-%e9%81%bf%e5%85%8d%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e5%85%b3%e9%94%ae-3\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u8fd9\u91cc<\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=4906\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,1604],"tags":[166,75,289,1694,2055,305,1687,113,1693,2058,1391,1695,522,1686],"class_list":["post-4906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-protest-movements","category-war","tag-civil-war","tag-democracy","tag-egypt","tag-intervention-strike","tag-new-opposition-nexus","tag-palestine","tag-peace","tag-protest","tag-rebellion","tag-syria-issues","tag-tunisia","tag-u-n","tag-war","tag-world-order","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (2) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/16\/\u6c11\u4e3b-\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? (2) &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the Kantian framework, different kinds of agents pursue democracy at three levels: the individuals within a nation, the states in their relationships with one another and also with their citizens, and humankind. In this article, we shall look at how individuals within a nation should behave if they want to truly abide by democratic principles.   Should they rebel and when? Should they support war, and which type of war if any?  This article is the second part of a series reflecting upon Democracy, especially its link to war, in the framework of events, notably regarding Syria, Egypt and the &quot;Arab Awakening&quot; but also the 2010s European and American opposition movements. The first article can be read here, and the next and final one here. This content is restricted to members only. Please log in or become a member to gain access.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/16\/\u6c11\u4e3b-\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-09-16T11:11:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-03-11T16:12:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/2-democracy-war-copy.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1564\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"941\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/09\\\/16\\\/democracy-the-key-to-avoiding-future-wars-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2013\\\/09\\\/16\\\/democracy-the-key-to-avoiding-future-wars-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u6c11\u4e3b\uff1a\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e\uff1f\uff082\uff09\u2022 Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/09\/16\/\u6c11\u4e3b-\u907f\u514d\u672a\u6765\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u5173\u952e-2\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"Democracy: the Key to Avoiding Future Wars? 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