{"id":5044,"date":"2022-05-30T18:53:28","date_gmt":"2022-05-30T16:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=5044"},"modified":"2026-01-14T17:49:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T16:49:44","slug":"understanding-the-war-in-syria-2013-to-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2022\/05\/30\/understanding-the-war-in-syria-2013-to-2017\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e86\u89e3\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89--2013 \u5e74\u81f3 2017\/18 \u5e74"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u4ece2013\u5e74\u52302017\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u884c\u52a8\u8005\u6d4f\u89c8\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5e74\u4efd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u65e9\u671f\uff1a\u76f4\u52302013-2014\u5e74<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u73b0\u72b6\u548c\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u672c\u8282\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u53d1\u73b0\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5883\u5185\u548c\u4e0a\u7a7a\u7684\u6218\u6597\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u5404\u7c7b\u884c\u4e3a\u4f53\u30022013\u5e747\u6708\u4e4b\u524d\u64b0\u5199\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u662f\u5f00\u653e\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6982\u51b5\u548c\u6f14\u53d8<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/15\/%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e4%b9%8b%e9%9b%be%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%bd%9c%e5%9c%a8%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u4e2d\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u672a\u6765<\/a>\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670815\u65e5\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/07\/08\/%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e5%9c%ba%e4%b8%8a%e7%9a%84%e5%8a%9b%e9%87%8f\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8bc4\u4f30\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u90e8\u961f<\/a>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aHelene Lavoix, 8 July 2013<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/02\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e6%96%b0%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5%e7%9a%84%e5%bc%80%e7%ab%af\/\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\uff1a\u65b0\u9636\u6bb5\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u3002&nbsp;<\/a><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aHelene Lavoix\uff0c2014\u5e742\u670824\u65e5\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">(\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b8c\u6574\u7684&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/07\/15\/%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a-%e5%9c%a8%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%b7%e9%9b%be%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%ba%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%bd%9c%e5%9c%a8%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">pdf\u7248\u62a5\u544a--\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u4e2d\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u672a\u6765<\/a>\u62a5\u9053\u79f0\uff0c2013\u5e747\u670815\u65e5\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u4e5f\u662f\u5982\u6b64\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u96c6\u56e2<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/04\/22\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u4eb2\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u56e2\u4f53\u548c\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u6d3e\u529b\u91cf<\/a>\uff0c2013\u5e744\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u66f4\u65b0\u81f32013\u5e747\u6708\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/10\/07\/%e9%9d%a2%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%b7%e9%9b%be-%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%e6%83%85%e5%86%b5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9762\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5--\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u653f\u6743\u7684\u56e2\u4f53<\/a>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aHelene Lavoix\uff0c2013\u5e7410\u67087\u65e5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u300b\uff082013 \u5e74\u30012014 \u5e74\u30012017 \u5e74\u30012018 \u5e74\uff09<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a 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Lavoix\uff0c2013\u5e7411\u67084\u65e5\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a style=\"line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/02\/10\/%e5%88%9b%e9%80%a0-rojava\/\">\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u548c\u7f57\u8d3e\u74e6\uff0c\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u4e2d\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5efa\u8bbe<\/a><span style=\"line-height: 1.5;\">\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aHelene Lavoix\uff0c2014\u5e742\u670810\u65e5\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u65af\u548c\u5723\u6218\u8005<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/06\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e7%ac%ac%e5%9b%9b%e9%98%b6%e6%ae%b5-%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e9%83%a8%e5%88%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer 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Lavoix\uff0c2013\u5e7410\u670821\u65e5\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/01\/27\/%e9%9d%a2%e5%af%b9%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%b7%e9%9b%be-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5-%e8%90%a8%e6%8b%89%e8%8f%b2%e6%b0%91%e6%97%8f%e4%b8%bb%e4%b9%89%e8%80%85\/\">\u9762\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\uff1a\u8428\u62c9\u83f2\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\uff1f<\/a>&nbsp;\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aHelene Lavoix\uff0c2014\u5e741\u670827\u65e5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u672a\u6765\u8bbe\u60f3\uff082013\u5e74<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65e9\u57282013\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u4e3a\u672a\u6765\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u8bf7\u8bb0\u4f4f\uff0c\u7406\u60f3\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\u5047\u8bbe\u968f\u540e\u5e94\u88ab\u7528\u4e8e\u76d1\u6d4b\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u6218\u573a\u4e0a\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u548c\u6240\u6709\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/13\/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e4%b8%ba%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-5-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af-1-%e6%97%a5%e5%86%85%e7%93%a6%e5%92%8c%e5%b9%b3%e8%80%8c%e8%ae%be\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f1\uff1a\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u7684\u548c\u5e73<\/a> <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/20\/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-5-%e6%83%85%e6%99%af-2-%e6%b2%a1%e6%9c%89%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e4%ba%ba%e5%9c%a8%e6%97%a5%e5%86%85%e7%93%a6\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f2\uff1a\u65e5\u5185\u74e6\u6ca1\u6709\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u4eba<\/a> - <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/27\/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-7-%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-3-1-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0-%e9%98%bf%e5%8b%92%e6%b2%99%e5%a7%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f3\uff1a\u5728\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u53d6\u5f97\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u80dc\u5229<\/a>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/05\/27\/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-7-%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-3-1-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0-%e9%98%bf%e5%8b%92%e6%b2%99%e5%a7%86\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f3.1:\u4e00\u4e2a\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u7684\u6c99\u59c6\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/03\/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f3.2\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/03\/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8bbe\u60f33.3:\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e16\u4fd7\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff1f<\/a>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/03\/sia-for-syria-8-scenario-3-a-nationalist-islamic-syria-or-a-muslim-brotherhoods-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f3.3.1.\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u5144\u5f1f\u4f1a\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/10\/sia-for-syria-9-scenario-3-a-secular-syria\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f3.3.2.\uff1a\u4e00\u4e2a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e16\u4fd7\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/17\/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e6%83%85%e6%8a%a5-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a-%e7%ac%ac3-4%e5%8f%b7%e6%96%b9%e6%a1%88-%e5%9b%9e%e5%88%b0%e5%ae%89-%e9%98%bf%e8%90%a8%e5%be%b7-%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f3.4\u3002\u56de\u5230\u963f\u8428\u5fb7\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\uff1f<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/10\/%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e5%92%8c%e6%8c%87%e6%a0%87\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u8bc4\u4f30\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u6307\u6807<\/a>, \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aHelene Lavoix, 2014\u5e743\u670810\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6253\u51fb\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u4e3b\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bbf\u95ee\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u8be6\u7ec6\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5728 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/11\/25\/portal-islamic-state-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u76f8\u5e94\u90e8\u5206<\/a>&nbsp;\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u6bd4\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u66f4\u5e7f\uff08\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u89c1\u3002&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2015\/11\/02\/%e4%bb%8e%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e5%88%b0%e8%af%a5%e5%9c%b0%e5%8c%ba%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%8d%e4%bc%8a%e6%96%af%e5%85%b0%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\/\">\u5bf9\u6297\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u4e89--\u4ece\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u5230\u5730\u533a<\/a>&nbsp;\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aH Lavoix\uff0c2015\u5e7411\u67082\u65e5\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2016\u5e74\u548c2017\u5e74\u7684\u60c5\u51b5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u8f83\u8fd1\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c\u53732016\u5e74\u5e95\u81f32017\u5e74\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u4fe1\u53f7\u5206\u6790\u6765\u5904\u7406\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/-3\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81%e5%92%8c%e6%9c%8d%e5%8a%a1\/%e7%9b%91%e6%b5%8b%e5%92%8c%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a\/%e5%9c%b0%e5%b9%b3%e7%ba%bf%e6%89%ab%e6%8f%8f%e6%9d%bf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u677f<\/a>, \u5728\u300a\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u7684\u957f\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/02\/%e6%8b%89%e5%8d%a1%e4%b9%8b%e6%88%98-%e5%ba%93%e5%b0%94%e5%be%b7%e4%ba%ba%e5%92%8c%e5%9c%9f%e8%80%b3%e5%85%b6%e4%ba%ba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u62c9\u5361\u4e4b\u6218\u3001\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176<\/a>&nbsp;- \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aH Lavoix\uff0c2017\u5e745\u67082\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/05\/22\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e7%9a%84%e5%ba%93%e5%b0%94%e5%be%b7%e4%ba%ba-%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e5%bb%ba%e8%ae%be-%e6%96%b0%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba--\u5efa\u56fd\u3001\u65b0\u6a21\u5f0f\u548c\u6218\u4e89<\/a>&nbsp;- \u4f5c\u8005\uff1aH Lavoix\uff0c2017\u5e745\u670822\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/06\/12\/%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%9c%e7%9a%84%e7%81%ab%e8%8d%af%e6%a1%b6%e5%92%8c%e4%ba%89%e5%a4%ba%e6%8b%89%e5%8d%a1%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%a7%e6%88%98%e5%bd%b9\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u706b\u836f\u6876\u548c\u62c9\u5361\u7684\u4f1f\u5927\u6218\u5f79&nbsp;<\/a>-<a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/06\/12\/%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%9c%e7%9a%84%e7%81%ab%e8%8d%af%e6%a1%b6%e5%92%8c%e4%ba%89%e5%a4%ba%e6%8b%89%e5%8d%a1%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%a7%e6%88%98%e5%bd%b9\/\">&nbsp;<\/a>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aH Lavoix\uff0c2017\u5e746\u670812\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/07\/03\/%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e5%ba%93%e5%b0%94%e5%be%b7%e4%ba%ba%e5%92%8c%e5%9c%9f%e8%80%b3%e5%85%b6%e7%9a%84%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e7%9c%8b%e6%b3%95\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u8d70\u5411\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u518d\u8d77\uff1f\u5e93\u5c14\u5fb7\u4eba\u548c\u571f\u8033\u5176<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2017\/06\/12\/%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%9c%e7%9a%84%e7%81%ab%e8%8d%af%e6%a1%b6%e5%92%8c%e4%ba%89%e5%a4%ba%e6%8b%89%e5%8d%a1%e7%9a%84%e5%a4%a7%e6%88%98%e5%bd%b9\/\">&nbsp;<\/a>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aH Lavoix\uff0c2017\u5e747\u67083\u65e5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e66\u76ee <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a title=\"\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89--\u4e66\u76ee\u548c\u8d44\u6599\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/06\/24\/%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89-%e4%b9%a6%e7%9b%ae%e5%92%8c%e8%b5%84%e6%96%99\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89--\u4e66\u76ee\u548c\u8d44\u6599<\/a>&nbsp;(\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6700\u521d\u51e0\u5e74)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u65b9\u6cd5<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u53e6\u8bf7\u53c2\u89c1\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u7ae0\u8282 <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/-3\/%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e9%a2%84%e9%98%b2%e5%92%8c%e8%ad%a6%e5%91%8a\/%e5%88%9b%e9%80%a0%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e6%83%85%e6%99%af\/%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e5%bb%ba%e8%ae%be\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u60c5\u666f\u5efa\u8bbe<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a style=\"text-align: justify;\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/10\/%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e6%83%85%e6%99%af%e5%92%8c%e6%8c%87%e6%a0%87\/\">\u8bc4\u4f30\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u6307\u6807<\/a>&nbsp;<span style=\"text-align: justify;\">(2014\u5e743\u670810\u65e5)\u3002<\/span><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5173\u4e8e\u66f4\u65b0\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u9762\u5bf9\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u8ff7\u96fe\u3002&nbsp;<a title=\"\u9762\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2013\/10\/07\/%e9%9d%a2%e5%af%b9%e5%8f%99%e5%88%a9%e4%ba%9a%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e7%9a%84%e8%bf%b7%e9%9b%be-%e6%9c%80%e6%96%b0%e6%83%85%e5%86%b5\/\">\u9762\u5bf9\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u6218\u4e89\u8ff7\u96fe\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5<\/a>&nbsp;(2013\u5e7410\u67087\u65e5)\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u9274\u4e8e\u6709\u65f6\u9700\u8981\u8f83\u957f\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u6765\u4fdd\u6301\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u90e8\u5206\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u91cd\u65b0\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u8be5\u7cfb\u5217\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u8d77\u59cb\u9875\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6b63\u5728\u6dfb\u52a0\u622a\u81f32013\u5e7410\u6708\u7684\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15327,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2499,252],"tags":[1716,1715,2560,190,1714,2058,522],"class_list":["post-5044","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","category-syria","tag-battlefield","tag-international-actors","tag-open-access","tag-scenarios","tag-state-of-play-2","tag-syria-issues","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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