{"id":5716,"date":"2019-11-15T13:00:34","date_gmt":"2019-11-15T12:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=5716"},"modified":"2021-10-04T17:23:09","modified_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:23:09","slug":"%e5%9c%ba%e6%99%af-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/11\/15\/scenarios-war\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u6790\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\uff084\uff09\u3002\u60c5\u666f\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap wp-block-paragraph\">This article focuses on scenarios for war. It explains first why scenarios need to be mutually exclusive. Then it provides logical templates for building scenarios dealing with war. Finally it offers an updated bibliography of scenarios for Syria over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"related wp-block-list\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/11\/18\/operational-methodology-security-threats\/\">Towards an Operational Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats and Political Risk (1)<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/12\/02\/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-2-a-game-of-chess\/\">Methodology to Analyse Future Security Threats (2): a Game of Chess<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/12\/16\/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-3-scenarios\/\">How to Analyse Future Security Threats (3): Scenarios as an Organic Living System<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2013\/12\/30\/methodology-to-analyze-future-security-threats-4\/\">How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/01\/13\/how-to-analyze-future-security-threats-5-scenarios-and-crises\/\">How to Analyse Future Security Threats (5): Scenarios and Crises<\/a><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This text is part of a series that seeks to practically speed and ease the methodology to analyse future security threats, including scenario-building, yet without sacrificing quality. Throughout this series we thus share ways to fulfil the&nbsp;<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/2013\/11\/18\/operational-methodology-security-threats\/\" target=\"_blank\">challenging criteria<\/a> demanded by our time for future and risk analysis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We clarified with the previous article the approach and mindset for the building of scenarios. Now, we address the practical part, how to concretely help speed the process of scenarios-building using logical ideal-type categories. Here, we focus on scenarios for war. With the next article, we move to scenarios for situations qualified as non-violent crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mutually exclusive scenarios<\/h2>\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__list alignright wp-block-latest-posts is-layout-flow wp-block-latest-posts-is-layout-flow\"><li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/16\/rtas-expertise-italian-television-channel-la7\/\">RTAS Expertise Highlighted on Italian Television Channel LA7<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/10\/08\/houthis-bab-el-mandeb-maritime-transport\/\">The Houthis, Bab el-Mandeb, and Maritime Transport<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/07\/15\/mystery-bolivia-lithium-reserves\/\">The Strange Mystery of Bolivia&#8217;s Lithium Reserves<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/04\/09\/beyond-geopolitics-critical-pressures\/\">Beyond Geopolitics: Understanding the Critical Pressures Reshaping Our World.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/03\/30\/watch-out-saudi-arabia-winner-iran-war\/\">WATCH OUT &#8211; The Iran War, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/09\/golden-dome-technological-frontier\/\">SIGNAL &#8211; The Golden Dome, a New Technological Frontier<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"wp-block-latest-posts__post-title\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2026\/02\/06\/watch-out-yemen-saudi-arabia\/\">WATCH OUT &#8211; Yemen and Saudi Arabia<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a preamble, it is necessary to emphasize a crucial rule. To quote Glenn and The Futures Group International:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;When a set of scenarios is prepared, each scenario usually treats the same or similar parameters, but the evolution and actual value of the parameters described in each scenario are different.&#8221;<\/p><cite>Glenn, Jerome C. and The Futures Group International, \u201cScenarios,\u201d p.4<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\t\t<div class=\"wp-block-woocommerce-memberships-member-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p class=\"has-background has-primary-background-color message-nonmember\">This is a premium article. To access this article, you must become one of our <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/membership-2\/\" target=\"_blank\">members<\/a> or have registered for an <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/product\/course-global-risk-analysis-analytical-model\/\" target=\"_blank\">online course<\/a>. In these cases, please, <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=3671\">log in<\/a>. <br>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Featured image: 3&nbsp;Possible scenarios of the Soviet invasion of Iran from the same CIA estimate 1985 by Central Intelligence Agency Office of Public Affairs Washington, D.C. &nbsp;[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator is-style-wide\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e3b\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u3002\u5b83\u9996\u5148\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u60c5\u666f\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u4e92\u6392\u65a5\u3002\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6784\u5efa\u5904\u7406\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u903b\u8f91\u6a21\u677f\u3002\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u5b83\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u5173\u4e8e\u53d9\u5229\u4e9a\u7684\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u4e66\u76ee\u3002\u8fc8\u5411\u5206\u6790\u672a\u6765\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u65b9\u6cd5 (1) \u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/11\/15\/scenarios-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u5982\u4f55\u5206\u6790\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u5a01\u80c1\uff084\uff09\uff1a\u60c5\u666f\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24652,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2860,3237,2499],"tags":[188,576,1789,170,1786,1780,1210,190,236,282,196,522],"class_list":["post-5716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-scenario-building","category-middle-east-and-north-africa","tag-analysis","tag-crisis","tag-featured","tag-geopolitics","tag-logic","tag-probabilities","tag-risk","tag-scenarios","tag-strategic-warning","tag-timeline","tag-variable","tag-war","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How to Analyse Future Security Threats (4): Scenarios and War &#8226; 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. 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