{"id":644,"date":"2018-11-05T10:47:33","date_gmt":"2018-11-05T09:47:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=644"},"modified":"2021-10-01T20:00:39","modified_gmt":"2021-10-01T18:00:39","slug":"%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%92%8c%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e7%9a%84%e6%98%a0%e5%b0%84-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/11\/05\/mapping-risk-and-uncertainty-1\/","title":{"rendered":"\u52a8\u6001\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5efa\u6a21 (1) : \u7ed8\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u56fe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(\u672c\u6587\u662f2011\u5e7411\u6708\u4ee5 \"\u521b\u5efa\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u6a21\u578b \"\u4e3a\u9898\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u5168\u9762\u66f4\u65b0\u7248\u3002\u7ed8\u5236\u52a8\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\u56fe\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u300b\uff09\u3002\u7ed8\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u3002  \u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u4ece\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u63cf\u8ff0\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u624b\u5934\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6216\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5141\u8bb8\u9884\u6d4b\u6216\u9884\u77e5\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u5176\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ee5... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/11\/05\/mapping-risk-and-uncertainty-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u52a8\u6001\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff081\uff09\uff1a\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6620\u5c04\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=644\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(\u672c\u6587\u662f2011\u5e7411\u6708\u4ee5 \"\u521b\u5efa\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u6a21\u578b \"\u4e3a\u9898\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u5168\u9762\u66f4\u65b0\u7248\u3002\u7ed8\u5236\u52a8\u6001\u7f51\u7edc\u56fe\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u300b\uff09\u3002\u7ed8\u5236\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u6b63\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u548c\u7ba1\u7406\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6b63\u786e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b65\u3002  \u8fd9\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u4ece\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u63cf\u8ff0\u548c\u89e3\u91ca\u624b\u5934\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u6216\u8bae\u9898\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5141\u8bb8\u9884\u6d4b\u6216\u9884\u77e5\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u4f60\u5df2\u7ecf\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u4e2a\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u5176\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6846\u67b6\u548c\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4ee5... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/11\/05\/mapping-risk-and-uncertainty-1\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u52a8\u6001\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5efa\u6a21\uff081\uff09\uff1a\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6620\u5c04\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=644\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19674,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3236],"tags":[188,54,27,1034,49,1031,200,76,1032,1789,1955,205,193,202,97,98,354,194,198,1210,2334,190,123,236,195,197,1035,1033,196],"class_list":["post-644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-building-a-model","tag-analysis","tag-arab-spring","tag-bias","tag-critical-uncertainty","tag-customer","tag-driver","tag-dynamic-network","tag-dynamics","tag-factor","tag-featured","tag-future-of-nation-state","tag-governance","tag-graph","tag-ideal-type","tag-map","tag-mapping","tag-modern-nation-state","tag-network","tag-probability","tag-risk","tag-risk-management","tag-scenarios","tag-strategic-foresight","tag-strategic-warning","tag-structural-change","tag-time","tag-trend","tag-uncertainty","tag-variable","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Modeling for Dynamic Risks and Uncertainties (1) : Mapping Risk and Uncertainty &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Mapping a risk and uncertainty: what is it, how to do it and why it is useful for best risk management, anticipation and strategic foresight and warning.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/11\/05\/\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6620\u5c04-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Modeling for Dynamic Risks and Uncertainties (1) : Mapping Risk and Uncertainty &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Mapping a risk and uncertainty: what is it, how to do it and why it is useful for best risk management, anticipation and strategic foresight and warning.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2018\/11\/05\/\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6620\u5c04-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-11-05T09:47:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-10-01T18:00:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/brunier-fisheye2-cropped-1038-credit-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1038\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta 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