{"id":6850,"date":"2014-03-20T13:22:22","date_gmt":"2014-03-20T12:22:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=6850"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:11:14","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:11:14","slug":"%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-144-%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e6%94%bf%e6%b2%bb-%e5%af%b9%e4%bc%81%e4%b8%9a%e4%b9%9f%e5%be%88%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/20\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u62a5144\uff0c\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Editorial &#8211; <strong>Geopolitics also matters for businesses<\/strong> &#8211; Among the big changes that the &#8220;Ukraine and Crimea crisis&#8221; are bringing or catalyzing, we may be seeing the end of the hegemonic belief that economics, and &#8220;business&#8221; only matter. Now that the E.U., its European members and the U.S. could be moving towards sanctions against Russia &#8211; at least if they want to be true to what they have said &#8211; \u00a0the corporate world seems to be discovering the huge impact those sanctions may have on each of them, as, for example, they may not be able to honour contracts and deliver goods as in the case of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/03\/19\/us-rheinmetall-russia-germany-idUSBREA2I1QF20140319\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">German Rheinmetall<\/a>\u00a0and may have to reimburse payments and pay heavy penalties, as in the case of <a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-admin\/post-new.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">French shipyard STX<\/a>. Profits will of course be lowered, corporate strategy impacted, while employment and growth at macroeconomic level will be impacted. That Reuters underlines in its title that &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/2014\/03\/20\/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-business-idUSBREA2I1TQ20140320\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sanctions rhetoric <strong>shakes<\/strong> companies, investors<\/a>&#8221; [my emphasis] indicates the level to which geopolitics and international matters had been thought secondary to the rest over the last twenty to thirty years. The wake up call could be brutal and go as far as signifying bankruptcy for smaller businesses depending directly or indirectly upon those contracts newly questioned by potential sanctions and Russian potential counter-attacks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yet, there was no fatality here. First, the separation between geopolitics, economy, finance, monetary policy, domestic political dynamics, etc. has never existed in the real world. It was at best a convenient way to study different complex disciplines and at worst a (dangerous) ideological statement. Second, businesses, even small ones, can, as much as governments, access and develop strategic foresight and warning analysis for geopolitical matters. I am not here talking about a political risk approach that would only look at elections, or sovereign default risk, with as only policy options &#8220;we invest or not&#8221;, nor at economic intelligence aka industrial espionage nor either at the hardcore security approach to tactically protect employees and investment. I am here talking about real strategic foresight and warning, which allows for the development of scenarios and thus for the consideration of a whole range of actions BEFORE it is too late, from lobbying, to hedging, to treasury and financial policy to weather correctly complicated times, to real communication and search for solutions with partners in countries where sanctions may apply (that could at least mitigate medium to long-term negative impact), to even relocation of subsidiaries, of course considering second, third and fourth level impacts on reputation, trust, respect from partners, staff and governments, etc.. to a process which, them, through warning, helps steer properly policy and strategy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Will businesses embrace this new uncertain geopolitical world or will they choose to become its victim? From their choice, and how it develops collectively at country (or actor to remain more neutral) level, will also depend the evolution of norms we evoked with the two previous issues of the Weekly (<a title=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 142 \u2013 Beyond Ukraine, towards Change in the World Order?\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/03\/06\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no142-6-march-2014-beyond-ukraine-towards-change-in-the-world-order\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a> and <a title=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 143, Towards a 19th Century Order?\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/2014\/03\/13\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-no143-towards-a-19th-century-order\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>), and the shape of the emerging world order.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Check also the extremely important paper regarding the possibility to have <a href=\"http:\/\/www.voxeu.org\/article\/there-room-more-one-international-currency\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more than one international currency<\/a>, which could lead to mammoth developments internationally. Those developments could potentially be accelerated by U.S. and E.U. financial\/banking sanctions against Russia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Click on the image to access the Weekly<a href=\"https:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992?edition_id=ee9ed030-b004-11e3-a986-00259071bfed\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-6851\" title=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/RTAW144.jpg\" alt=\"weak signals, warning, businesses, Ukraine, Crimea\" width=\"550\" height=\"432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/RTAW144.jpg 550w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/RTAW144-250x196.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/RTAW144-300x235.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u793e\u8bba--\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981--\u5728 \"\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u5371\u673a \"\u5e26\u6765\u6216\u50ac\u5316\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u53d8\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c \"\u5546\u4e1a \"\u624d\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u9738\u6743\u4e3b\u4e49\u4fe1\u5ff5\u7684\u7ec8\u7ed3\u3002\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u6b27\u76df\u3001\u5176\u6b27\u6d32\u6210\u5458\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u8d70\u5411\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u5236\u88c1...... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/20\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u300b\u7b2c 144 \u5468\uff1a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13292,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1078,2457,3249],"tags":[1897,1843,61,1842,1837,576,289,80,81,1789,170,2057,2060,2560,1844,220,2058,2175,2067,343],"class_list":["post-6850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-new-paradigm","category-geopolitics-uncertainty-and-business","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-business","tag-businesses","tag-china","tag-corporate","tag-crimea","tag-crisis","tag-egypt","tag-euro","tag-europe","tag-featured","tag-geopolitics","tag-india","tag-libyan-war","tag-open-access","tag-rupee","tag-russia","tag-syria-issues","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine-issues","tag-yuan","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/20\/\u7ea2\u961f-\u5206\u6790-\u5468\u62a5-144-\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb-\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Editorial &#8211; Geopolitics also matters for businesses &#8211; Among the big changes that the &#8220;Ukraine and Crimea crisis&#8221; are bringing or catalyzing, we may be seeing the end of the hegemonic belief that economics, and &#8220;business&#8221; only matter. Now that the E.U., its European members and the U.S. could be moving towards sanctions against Russia &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cThe Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/20\/\u7ea2\u961f-\u5206\u6790-\u5468\u62a5-144-\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb-\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-03-20T12:22:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:11:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/dishes-star-night-featured.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1038\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"576\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-03-20T12:22:22+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T08:11:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":561,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2016\\\/11\\\/dishes-star-night-featured.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"business\",\"businesses\",\"China\",\"corporate\",\"Crimea\",\"crisis\",\"Egypt\",\"Euro\",\"Europe\",\"featured\",\"geopolitics\",\"India\",\"Libyan war\",\"Open Access\",\"Rupee\",\"Russia\",\"Syria issues\",\"U.S\",\"Ukraine issues\",\"Yuan\"],\"articleSection\":[\"International Order and New Paradigm\",\"Strategic Foresight and Geopolitics for Business\",\"The Weekly Scan - Editorial Archives\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/2014\\\/03\\\/20\\\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-144-geopolitics-also-matters-for-businesses\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses &#8226; 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. She has been a lecturer (Master level) and taught the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA in France, the Ecole Sup\u00e9rieure des Forces de S\u00e9curit\u00e9 Int\u00e9rieure in Tunisia and the ENA Tunis, Institute of Leadership. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, supply and uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China\u2019s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/HLavoix\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/author\\\/helenelavoix-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"\u300a\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u62a5\u300b\u7b2c144\u671f\uff1a\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981 \u2022 The Red Team Analysis Society","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/03\/20\/\u7ea2\u961f-\u5206\u6790-\u5468\u62a5-144-\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb-\u5bf9\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\/","og_locale":"zh_CN","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 144, Geopolitics also matters for businesses &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society","og_description":"Editorial &#8211; Geopolitics also matters for businesses &#8211; Among the big changes that the &#8220;Ukraine and Crimea crisis&#8221; are bringing or catalyzing, we may be seeing the end of the hegemonic belief that economics, and &#8220;business&#8221; only matter. 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