{"id":7333,"date":"2014-05-22T17:17:31","date_gmt":"2014-05-22T15:17:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=7333"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:11:12","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:11:12","slug":"%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/05\/22\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-153-the-paradox-of-change\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u520a153--\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Editorial &#8211; <strong>The paradox of change?<\/strong>\u00a0Reading through the multiple crowd-sourced articles of the Weekly,\u00a0what stands out is\u00a0a perception of an acceleration of change.\u00a0In itself, each flashpoint or\u00a0problem is not new, and has been either underlined or monitored for months and even for years for some of them. Yet, when we look at all of them together, then it seems that they tend to become real, accumulate, or worsen in an accelerating way.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">We may wonder if the acceleration &#8211; assuming it is not &#8220;just&#8221; a question of perception &#8211; does not come from the following phenomenon, among certainly others: despite stressing upcoming changes, these emphases may\u00a0remain at a very shallow level when those changes are &#8211; consciously or not &#8211; equated with something undesirable. As a result, real assessment of situations and decisions taken are one step &#8211; to be optimistic &#8211; behind, done out of past habits. Then, refusal\u00a0to consider properly ongoing changes\u00a0ends up accelerating them, possibly in a way that is more adverse than what could have happened.\u00a0Take, for example, the awareness of the end of the U.S. dominated unipolar world. It has been underlined for years, including in the U.S.:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;With the rapid rise of other countries, the \u201cunipolar moment\u201d is over and Pax Americana\u2014the era of American ascendancy in international politics that began in 1945\u2014is fast winding down.&#8221; (Global Trends 2030, Dec 2012 : x)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yet, when those countries that were known to be\u00a0part of the new poles of the multipolar world &#8211; among them, for example,\u00a0Russia and China &#8211; act accordingly, then surprised outrage\u00a0results, while complex explanations to crises recede (read for example Oliver Bullough &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2014\/may\/19\/ukraine-narrative-moscow-versus-washington-oligarchs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stop forcing Ukraine into a narrative of Moscow versus Washington<\/a>&#8221; The Guradian). This immediately puts everyone on an escalating path, considering the power available to all actors in\u00a0this multipolar world, the aim of the ascending poles to see the\u00a0changed world happening and the intrinsic escalating power of erroneous explanations and related misunderstandings.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thus, when change is coming &#8211; and it always is &#8211; what would matter is not only identifying those changes but also the way actors\u00a0truly perceive\u00a0them. From this perception will follow action located on an spectrum ranging from resistance and fear, which will accelerate change and possibly make the result less favourable, to\u00a0acceptation and ability to seize opportunities to bend changes to one&#8217;s advantage.\u00a0Assuming this hypothesis is correct, then it\u00a0pleads methodologically for an abundant use of scenarios, simulations and role playing. \u00a0At the level of analysis, it emphasises, if it still needed to be considering the existing literature on the topic, the importance of the role of perceptions in international politics.<\/p>\n<p>Click on the image below to read the Weekly on Paper.li<a href=\"https:\/\/paper.li\/HLavoix\/1323337992?edition_id=1eb45990-e186-11e3-abc3-00259071bfed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7335 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/RTAS-153-sc.jpeg\" alt=\"political risk, international system, weak signals\" width=\"550\" height=\"536\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/RTAS-153-sc.jpeg 550w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/RTAS-153-sc-250x244.jpeg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/RTAS-153-sc-300x292.jpeg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Featured image: High speed by\u00a0By Paolo Neo [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u793e\u8bba - \u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff1f\u901a\u8fc7\u9605\u8bfb\u300a\u5468\u520a\u300b\u7684\u591a\u7bc7\u4f17\u7b79\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u7a81\u51fa\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u53d8\u5316\u52a0\u901f\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u5c31\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u70ed\u70b9\u6216\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u65b0\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5f3a\u8c03\u6216\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e9b\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u76d1\u6d4b\u4e86\u51e0\u5e74\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5ba1\u89c6\u6240\u6709\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u65f6...... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/05\/22\/the-red-team-analysis-weekly-153-the-paradox-of-change\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u520a153--\u53d8\u9769\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff1f\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7336,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1078,2479,3249],"tags":[604,61,1856,721,1789,2057,2560,220,1455,2058,1831,2175,2067],"class_list":["post-7333","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-new-paradigm","category-monitoring-and-warning","category-the-weekly-scan","tag-change","tag-china","tag-dollar-supremacy","tag-energy-security","tag-featured","tag-india","tag-open-access","tag-russia","tag-shale","tag-syria-issues","tag-thailand","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine-issues","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 - The Paradox of Change? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/05\/22\/\u7ea2\u8272\u56e2\u961f-\u5206\u6790-\u5468\u62a5-153-\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6096\u8bba\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 - The Paradox of Change? &#8226; The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Editorial &#8211; The paradox of change?\u00a0Reading through the multiple crowd-sourced articles of the Weekly,\u00a0what stands out is\u00a0a perception of an acceleration of change.\u00a0In itself, each flashpoint or\u00a0problem is not new, and has been either underlined or monitored for months and even for years for some of them. Yet, when we look at all of them &hellip; \u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb\u201cThe Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 &#8211; The Paradox of Change?\u201d\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/05\/22\/\u7ea2\u8272\u56e2\u961f-\u5206\u6790-\u5468\u62a5-153-\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u6096\u8bba\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Red Team Analysis Society\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Red-Team-Analysis\/341280995886057\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-05-22T15:17:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-04-14T08:11:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/1024px-High-speed-2014.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"372\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@HLavoix\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"\u4f5c\u8005\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9884\u8ba1\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u95f4\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 \u5206\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/22\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/22\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6886ef37ab2b2804bc70995f4ba653d4\"},\"headline\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 &#8211; The Paradox of Change?\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-05-22T15:17:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-14T08:11:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/22\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":489,\"commentCount\":3,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/22\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/1024px-High-speed-2014.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"change\",\"China\",\"dollar supremacy\",\"energy security\",\"featured\",\"India\",\"Open Access\",\"Russia\",\"Shale\",\"Syria issues\",\"Thailand\",\"U.S\",\"Ukraine issues\"],\"articleSection\":[\"International Order and New Paradigm\",\"Scanning and Monitoring for Warning on Global Issues\",\"The Weekly Scan - Editorial Archives\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-Hans\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/22\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/22\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/redanalysis.org\\\/zh\\\/2014\\\/05\\\/22\\\/%e7%ba%a2%e8%89%b2%e5%9b%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-153-%e5%8f%98%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84%e6%82%96%e8%ae%ba\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Red (Team) Analysis Weekly 153 - The Paradox of Change? 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She holds a PhD in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande \u00c9cole, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines 30 years of experience in international relations and almost 20 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 16 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia and Jordan. 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