{"id":8749,"date":"2014-12-18T15:49:49","date_gmt":"2014-12-18T14:49:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=8749"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:10:13","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:10:13","slug":"%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-183-%e6%96%b0%e5%86%b7%e6%88%98-%e5%8a%a0%e5%89%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2014\/12\/18\/red-team-analysis-weekly-183-new-cold-war-heightens\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u520a183--\u4ece\u53e4\u5df4\u5230\u5362\u5e03\uff0c\"\u65b0\u51b7\u6218 \"\u52a0\u5267"},"content":{"rendered":"

Each week our\u00a0scan collects weak \u2013 and less weak \u2013 signals\u2026 We present below some of the most interesting or relevant features for\u00a0each section.<\/p>\n

World<\/strong> (all matters related to\u00a0war, international and national security) \u2013 Some\u00a0analysts seem to hail\u00a0the move towards the normalization of\u00a0\u00a0U.S.-Cuba relations as an evidence that the U.S. is truly ending the Cold War (e.g. Karen De Young<\/a>, Washington Post)<\/em>. This is, however, not to consider all dimensions of one of the major transitions that the world order is currently knowing.\u00a0This is to ignore power and international politics, which are played on the global stage. It seems indeed, that the U.S. move towards Cuba, added to the ruble crisis and China’s potential consequent actions argue, on the contrary, for a heightened power struggle\u00a0in\u00a0the fight for or against\u00a0a unipolar world that would be dominated by the U.S..<\/p>\n

Although being a rather classical power struggle that may be described in terms of realpolitik and strategy, mirages and blindness seem to preside over this “New Cold War”and to hide its escalation, including maybe because it tends to be solely cast against\u00a0Russia and especially his President, Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n

In this regard, the article by Friedman (Stratfor) is a must read as it shows how much the U.S. (as well as\u00a0“the West”)\u00a0is blind as far as Russia and Russians are concerned, not understanding at all their interest, perceptions, as well as\u00a0“the Russian soul”, what matters to Russians, what they want. The capacity and willingness of Russians to withstand economic hardship – for example as far as the ruble and oil prices are concerned – for things that matter to them more and most is obviously completely lost on what has become of the West, a consumerist, hyper-materialistic society, most of the time\u00a0gone astray\u00a0“into the having” and having forgotten what was “being”, to use the great insight of the great\u00a0socio-psychatrist Erich Fromm<\/a> (e.g. To have or To b<\/a>e,\u00a0<\/em>1976;\u00a0The Sane Society<\/a>,\u00a0<\/em>1955). As a result, if some actors were hoping to see the financial and economic crisis forcing Russia\u00a0to change its policy and strategy, they would most probably be mistaken. On the contrary, its\u00a0resolve is likely to be\u00a0reinforced.<\/p>\n

Mirage and blindness again, this time for analysts and media, regarding the evolution of\u00a0U.S.-Cuban relationships, which is cast\u00a0in lights most often related to democracy, liberalism, freedom and business interest, when, most probably, the change is\u00a0part of the new American power struggle against Russia. Indeed, according to two crowdsourced articles, behind these apparently solely\u00a0diplomatic developments are American concerns over, first, a new security deal signed between Russia and Cuba in\u00a0May 2014, which\u00a0would notably allow “the use of [Cuban] airfields for Russia\u2019s Tu-95 nuclear capable bombers”, which could then threaten the U.S. coast \u00a0(see “Intel concerns about Russia-Cuba ties preceded Obama\u2019s deal to dismantle sanctions”, The\u00a0Washington Times; <\/em>see also The Voice of Russia; <\/em><\/a>Consortium of Defense Analyst<\/em>s<\/em><\/a>)<\/a>. Then, the U.S. would be worried about the reopening of a SIGINT (signals intelligence) facility in Cuba and a negotiation for\u00a0an oil deal between Russian Rosneft and Cuban\u00a0CUPET to exploit the 4 to\u00a020 bn barrels estimated\u00a0Cuban reserves, both announced in July 2014 (see Power Moves: US-Cuba deal isolates and weakens Russia; and also The Wire<\/a><\/em>; The Diplomat<\/em><\/a> for the original articles). \u00a0We are thus definitely in the realm of a power struggle.\u00a0Will the U.S. succeed in cutting Russia off from Cuba, this is extremely doubtful considering the long-standing friendship and relations between the two countries.<\/p>\n

Blindness and mirage again for not seeing the role that China seems ready to play, how it might\u00a0stand by Russia and how,\u00a0should it do so as far as the ruble crisis is concerned, the impact for the US dollar and its supremacy could be damaging (see “China Prepares To Bailout Russia”, Zerohedge<\/em> and “Rouble vs. Dollar Games – From a Perspective of a Russian Businessman”, Information Clearing House – ICH<\/em>). In turn, the “new Cold War” may only be heightened and accelerated. The new military involvement of China in Iraq, however outside the U.S.-led coalition, should also be noted, as it may signals a novel phase in China’s role in the world, which tended so far\u00a0to be more economically oriented, save in its near abroad. Should such a signal be confirmed by further indications, then we would be witnessing an acceleration of the world order transition.<\/p>\n

Energy, economy and environment security<\/strong> \u2013 As the impact of the fall of oil prices are starting to be felt across actors, as tensions rise, climate change and related problems seem to become increasingly a remote, uninteresting issue.\u00a0Dr Keith Daum underlines that \u201cThe COP20 climate conference in Lima was\u00a0not very positive, as shown by the various comments made, from a failure to deliver a useful outcome (WWF) to modest agreement with serious divisions remaining between rich and poor nations (Politico) or\u00a0a compromise that sets the stage for an upcoming meeting in Paris (NPR). Meanwhile, the NYT stresses that the driving force behind the deal was not the threat of sanctions, but global peer pressure.\u201d And if peer pressure is not there anymore because “peers” are busy elsewhere, the prospect for a real deal with a real outcome coming into being are not very bright. Yet, as Dr Daum stresses science repeatedly documents that climate change is serious, relentless and with negative impacts, for example, with \u201ca new understanding regarding the rate of icecap melting in Greenland, or an article in Nature calling into question\u00a0one of the assumptions of climate models which was that\u00a0with increasing CO2 concentration forests will have increased growth.”<\/p>\n

Tech and Weapons<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Three articles notably stand out: the US Navy new underwater drone, India’s continuing space exploration as well as, again in space, potential collaboration between US Lockheed Martin and Boeing\u00a0and … Russia.<\/p>\n

Ebola<\/strong> \u2013 According to the WHO latest situation report<\/a>, we now have \u201ca total of 18603\u00a0confirmed, probable, and suspected cases of EVD and 6915 deaths \u2026 reported up to the end of 14\u00a0December\u00a02014.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read the 18 December\u00a0scan <\/strong>\u2192\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The Weekly is the scan of The Red (Team) Analysis Society and it focuses on national and international security issues. It was started as an experiment with Paper.li as a way to collect ideas, notably through Twitter. Its success and its usefulness led to its continuation.<\/em><\/p>\n

The information collected (crowdsourced) does not mean endorsement but points to new, emerging, escalating or stabilizing problems and issues.<\/em><\/p>\n

If you wish to consult the scan after the end of the week period, use the \u201carchives\u201d directly on The Weekly.<\/em><\/p>\n

Featured image:\u00a0\u201cC-band Radar-dish Antenna\u201d. Licensed under Public domain via Wikimedia Commons<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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