{"id":9093,"date":"2015-02-12T17:41:51","date_gmt":"2015-02-12T16:41:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=9093"},"modified":"2023-04-14T10:10:12","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T08:10:12","slug":"%e7%ba%a2%e9%98%9f-%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90-%e5%91%a8%e6%8a%a5-191-%e6%98%8e%e6%96%af%e5%85%8b-%e6%a6%82%e7%8e%87-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u5c0f\u7ec4\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u520a191--\u660e\u65af\u514b\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6bcf\u5468\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u626b\u63cf\u90fd\u4f1a\u6536\u96c6\u8584\u5f31\u7684--\u548c\u4e0d\u592a\u8584\u5f31\u7684--\u4fe1\u53f7......\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6bcf\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u6216\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u9605\u8bfb2\u670812\u65e5\u7684\u626b\u63cf\u62a5\u544a\u2192\u4e16\u754c\uff08\u6240\u6709\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6709\u5173\u7684\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09--\u5c31\u4e3b\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e00\u5468\u548c\u4e0b\u4e00\u5468\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e8b\u52a1\u53d8\u5f97\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3001\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u8fd8\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u7ea6\u745f\u592b-\u5948\uff08Joseph Nye\uff09\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u5c0f\u800c\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u300a\u7406\u89e3\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u300b\uff08Understanding International Conflicts\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u5bfc\u8bba\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6070\u5982\u5176\u5206\u5730\u88ab\u547d\u540d\u4e3a \"\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6f0f\u6597\"\u3002\"\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9010\u6e10\u903c\u8fd1\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u4e27\u5931\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6982\u7387\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4f9b\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6f0f\u6597\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u6253\u5f00\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd......\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u520a191--\u660e\u65af\u514b\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n \t\t<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n\t\t\t\t<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=9093\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\t\t    <\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6bcf\u5468\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u626b\u63cf\u90fd\u4f1a\u6536\u96c6\u8584\u5f31\u7684--\u548c\u4e0d\u592a\u8584\u5f31\u7684--\u4fe1\u53f7......\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e0b\u9762\u4ecb\u7ecd\u6bcf\u4e2a\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u6709\u8da3\u6216\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u3002\u9605\u8bfb2\u670812\u65e5\u7684\u626b\u63cf\u62a5\u544a\u2192\u4e16\u754c\uff08\u6240\u6709\u4e0e\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u56fd\u9645\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u6709\u5173\u7684\u4e8b\u52a1\uff09--\u5c31\u4e3b\u8981\u95ee\u9898\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4e00\u5468\u548c\u4e0b\u4e00\u5468\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e8b\u52a1\u53d8\u5f97\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e2d\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u90fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u3001\u6f14\u53d8\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u8fd8\u4f1a\u51dd\u805a\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u3002\u7ea6\u745f\u592b-\u5948\uff08Joseph Nye\uff09\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u5c0f\u800c\u4f18\u79c0\u7684\u300a\u7406\u89e3\u56fd\u9645\u51b2\u7a81\u300b\uff08Understanding International Conflicts\uff09\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\u3002\u7406\u8bba\u4e0e\u5386\u53f2\u5bfc\u8bba\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6070\u5982\u5176\u5206\u5730\u88ab\u547d\u540d\u4e3a \"\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6f0f\u6597\"\u3002\"\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u9010\u6e10\u903c\u8fd1\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u4e27\u5931\uff0c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u6982\u7387\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4f9b\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u6f0f\u6597\u53ef\u80fd\u518d\u6b21\u6253\u5f00\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5ea6\u53ef\u80fd......\u3002 <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2015\/02\/12\/red-team-analysis-weekly-191-minsk-probability-war\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u5468\u520a191--\u660e\u65af\u514b\u548c\u6218\u4e89\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"woocommerce\">\n<div class=\"woocommerce-info wc-memberships-restriction-message wc-memberships-message wc-memberships-content-restricted-message\">\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u4e3a\u6211\u4eec\u7684 <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81\/%e6%88%90%e5%91%98-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6210\u5458<\/a>. .\u786e\u4fdd\u60a8\u6536\u5230\u7684\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u66f4\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5047\u65b0\u95fb\u3002. <a style=\"color: #fff\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/my-account\/?wcm_redirect_to=post&amp;wcm_redirect_id=9093\">\u767b\u5f55<\/a> \u5e76\u8bbf\u95ee\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3002<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7831,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2503,2502,1078,2498,3249,1784],"tags":[1968,1856,81,1690,1628,792,2060,220,2175,2067,522,1686],"class_list":["post-9093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-europe","category-new-paradigm","category-russia","category-the-weekly-scan","category-ukraine","tag-boko-haram","tag-dollar-supremacy","tag-europe","tag-international-system","tag-islamic-state","tag-japan","tag-libyan-war","tag-russia","tag-u-s","tag-ukraine-issues","tag-war","tag-world-order","membership-content","access-restricted","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin 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