{"id":9899,"date":"2019-01-30T10:35:01","date_gmt":"2019-01-30T09:35:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.redanalysis.org\/?p=9899"},"modified":"2021-10-04T17:25:18","modified_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:25:18","slug":"%e6%97%b6%e9%97%b4-%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5-%e8%bf%9c%e8%a7%81-%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9-%e7%ae%a1%e7%90%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/01\/30\/time-strategic-foresight-warning-risk-management\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u4f01\u4e1a\u754c\u5230\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bfb\u6c42\u9003\u907f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u610f\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u751f\u5b58\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4fdd\u62a4\u6211\u4eec\u514d\u53d7\u5a01\u80c1\u3001\u5371\u9669\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9700\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u96c6\u4f53\u60f3\u8c61\u4e2d\uff0c\u7a7a\u95f4\u6216\u5bfb\u627e\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4e2a\u4eba\uff0c\u5982\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u6216\u7f6a\u72af\uff0c\u6bd4\u65f6\u95f4\u66f4\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\u7684\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u7535\u5f71\u63cf\u7ed8\u4e86\u6218\u4e89\u3001\u5371\u673a\u5904\u7406\u5ba4\u548c\u60c5\u51b5\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u5730\u56fe\u4e0a\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7ebf\u6761\u548c\u95ea\u70c1\u7684\u706f\u5149\uff1f\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u901a\u8fc7\u900f\u660e\u7684\u6db2\u6676\u8868\u63cf\u7ed8\u4e86\u5bf9\u6050\u6016\u5206\u5b50\u7684\u8ffd\u6355\uff0c\u7279\u5de5\u6216\u5206\u6790\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\u83b7\u5f97\u6570\u5343\u5146\u5b57\u8282\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u6709\u65f6\u4ed6\u4eec\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u5168\u606f\u663e\u793a\u5668\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image wp-image-9902 size-full\"><figure class=\"alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"350\" height=\"229\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Star-Trek-1.jpg\" alt=\"\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u3001\u65f6\u7a7a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ad9\u3001\u65f6\u7a7a\u51b7\u6218\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u3001\u6218\u7565\u9884\u77e5\u548c\u8b66\u544a\" class=\"wp-image-9902\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Star-Trek-1.jpg 350w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Star-Trek-1-250x164.jpg 250w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/Star-Trek-1-300x196.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><figcaption>\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u4f01\u4e1a\u300b\u5267\u7167\uff0c\"\u51b7\u950b \"\u7b2c11\u96c6\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff0c2001\u5e7411\u670828\u65e5\uff0c\u6d3e\u62c9\u8499\u7f51\u7edc\u7535\u89c6\u53f0--\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a \"\u516c\u5e73\u4f7f\u7528\"\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u65f6\u95f4\u662f\u65e0\u4e3b\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5bf9\u300a\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u7684\u7c89\u4e1d\u6765\u8bf4\u6700\u4e3a\u8457\u540d\u3002\u5728\u7535\u89c6\u5267\u7684\u5236\u4f5c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u3002 <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/en.memory-alpha.wikia.com\/wiki\/Star_Trek:_Enterprise\" target=\"_blank\">\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u4f01\u4e1a\u53f7<\/a> (2001-2005)\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u662f\u5267\u60c5\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u91cc\uff0c\u65f6\u7a7a\u4ee3\u7406\u4eba\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u4e00\u573a\u65f6\u7a7a\u51b7\u6218\u3002\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u7684\u573a\u666f\u8bbe\u8ba1\u5e08\u4eec\u60f3\u8c61\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u7a7a\u89c2\u6d4b\u7ad9\uff0c\u5982\"\"\u4e2d\u6240\u793a\u3002<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0572192\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u51b7\u950b\u300b\u7b2c11\u96c6<\/a>\u5b63\u82821\uff0c2001\u5e7411\u670828\u65e5\uff0c\u6d3e\u62c9\u8499\u7f51\u7edc\u7535\u89c6\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=m8T2rRi1Avg\" target=\"_blank\">\u5267\u96c6\u6458\u5f55<\/a>&nbsp;(\u4ece2:04\u5f00\u59cb\uff09\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u4e2a \"\u65f6\u7a7a\u60c5\u51b5\u5ba4 \"\u5728\u672a\u6765\u7684\u6837\u5b50\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u5728 \"\u65f6\u95f4\u6d41 \"\u4e2d\u6d41\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube aligncenter wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/m8T2rRi1Avg?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=zh-CN&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><figcaption>(C) \u516c\u5e73\u4f7f\u7528<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u957f\u671f\u6c89\u9ed8\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u300a\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\uff082017\uff09\u3002 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u53d1\u73b0\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\" href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt5171438\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u53d1\u73b0<\/a>\u5176\u4e2d\u53c8\u5305\u62ec\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u65c5\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f00\u59cb\u8dcb\u6d89\u5f88\u91cd\u8981<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728 \"\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u8083\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5b89\u5168\u4e8b\u52a1\u4e2d\"\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8981\u5173\u6ce8\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83 \"\u53ea\u662f \"\u79d1\u5e7b\u5c0f\u8bf4\u548c\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u597d\u5427\uff0c\u52aa\u529b\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u822a\u5929\u5c40\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u7684\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u5e76\u4e0d\u5bb3\u6015\u4f7f\u7528\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u60f3\u8c61\u529b(<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/topics\/technology\/features\/star_trek.html\" target=\"_blank\">\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u7684\u79d1\u5b66<\/a>, 05.05.09).\u73b0\u5728\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u300a\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u5177\u6709\u79d1\u5b66\u7684\u8fdc\u89c1\u5462\uff1f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u59cb\u4e8e1966\u5e74\u7684\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\u7684\u6f2b\u957f\u5386\u53f2\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u8fc7\u5f88\u591a\u6b21\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300a\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u751a\u81f3\u9884\u89c1\u5230\u4e86\u73b0\u5728\u8457\u540d\u7684\u5e73\u677f\u7535\u8111\uff08Paul Hsieh\uff0c\"8\u9879\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u6280\u672f\u4ece\u79d1\u5e7b\u8d70\u5411\u79d1\u5b66\u4e8b\u5b9e\"\u3002 <em><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/paulhsieh\/2014\/06\/24\/8-star-trek-technologies\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u798f\u5e03\u65af\u300b\u6742\u5fd7<\/a><\/em>\uff0c2014\u5e746\u670824\u65e5\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u80fd\u5c06\u300a\u8d77\u70b9\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u7684\u9884\u89c1\u80fd\u529b\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u89c1\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f1a\u600e\u4e48\u6837\uff1f\u7684\u786e\u786c\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u6280\u672f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u9700\u8981\u643a\u624b\u5e76\u8fdb\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a2017\u5e74\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u300a\u8d77\u70b9\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u4e2d\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u65c5\u884c\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u89c6\u4e3a\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u91cd\u65b0\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5fae\u5f31\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u53ca\u8b66\u544a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u65f6\u95f4<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u4e0e\u9884\u8b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u54ea\u4e9b\u65f6\u95f4\u6210\u5206\uff1f <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u8003\u8651\u65f6\u673a\uff08\u67d0\u4e8b\u6216\u67d0\u573a\u666f\u4f55\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\uff09\u3001\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\uff08\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u8fde\u7eed\u6027\uff09\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\uff08\u4e00\u4e2a\u73b0\u8c61\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u4e45\uff09\u3002\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u60f3\u4fdd\u62a4\u81ea\u5df1\u514d\u53d7\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5a01\u80c1\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e2a\u98ce\u9669\u6216\u5a01\u80c1\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u3001\u4e00\u5e74\u6216\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u7528\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u5c06\u6839\u636e\u65f6\u95f4\u6210\u5206\u800c\u53d8\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ece\u6218\u7565\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5f53\u6211\u4eec\u5904\u7406\u65b0\u7684\u3001\u8fc4\u4eca\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u6280\u672f\u548c\u79d1\u5b66\uff0c\u5982\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u4fe1\u606f\u79d1\u5b66\uff08QIS\uff09\u65f6\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6216\u90a3\u4e2a\u6280\u672f\u4f55\u65f6\u80fd\u6295\u5165\u4f7f\u7528\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4f55\u65f6\u4f1a\u6709\u901a\u7528\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff1f\u591a\u4e45\u624d\u80fd\u8ba9\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6216\u90a3\u4e2a\u4efb\u52a1\u4e2d\u53d6\u4ee3\u4eba\u7c7b\uff1f\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u81ea\u4e4c\u514b\u5170\u548c\u514b\u91cc\u7c73\u4e9a\u5e76\u5165\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u53d1\u73b0 \"\u56fd\u5bb6\u95f4\u51b2\u7a81\u7684\u7206\u53d1 \"\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e3b\u8981\u5a01\u80c1\uff08WEF.Net\uff09\u3002 <em><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.weforum.org\/reports\/global-risks-report-2015\" target=\"_blank\">2015\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u98ce\u9669\u62a5\u544a<\/a><\/em>)\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5185\u6218\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u7684\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u548c\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u4e49\u9738\u6743\u7684\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8003\u8651\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6218\u7565\u5c40\u52bf\u4e2d\u6700\u5173\u952e\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u884c\u4e3a\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u6218\u7565\u5f62\u52bf\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6709\u591a\u5feb\uff1f\u5728\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u4e0a\uff0c\u6218\u7565\u73af\u5883\u6700\u5bb9\u6613\u63a5\u53d7\u6216 \"\u6210\u719f \"\u7684\u5e72\u9884\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u5e94\u8be5\u6bd4\u5bf9\u624b\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u66f4\u53ca\u65f6\u5417\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u548c\u6218\u7565\u5bb6\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u662f\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6027\u3001\u6218\u7565\u8fdc\u89c1\u3001\u8b66\u544a\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6216\u66f4\u666e\u904d\u7684 \"\u65f6\u95f4\"\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u548c\u5e38\u8bc6\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6846\u67b6\u5916\uff0c\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u5f88\u5c11\u6574\u5408\u65f6\u95f4\u3002  \u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u6700\u7ec8\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u627e\u5230\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u5927\u81f4\u5206\u4e3a\u4e09\u7c7b\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8de8\u5ea6<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u7b54\u6848\u548c\u4ea7\u54c1\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\uff1a\u5982\u7f8e\u56fd\u60c5\u62a5\u5c40&nbsp;<em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"2035\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\u3002\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dni.gov\/index.php\/global-trends-home\" target=\"_blank\">2035\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6096\u8bba<\/a><\/em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"2035\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216\u8fdb\u6b65\u7684\u6096\u8bba\uff0c\uff08\u5728\u65b0\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\u3002\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dni.gov\/index.php\/global-trends-home\" target=\"_blank\">,<\/a> \u6216\u82f1\u56fd\u56fd\u9632\u90e8 <em><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/348164\/20140821_DCDC_GST_5_Web_Secured.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u5168\u7403\u6218\u7565\u8d8b\u52bf--\u52302045\u5e74<\/a>, <\/em>\u4ee5\u53ca\u6700\u65b0\u7248\u672c\u300a\u5c55\u671b2050\u300b\uff082018\u5e7410\u6708\uff09\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/771309\/Global_Strategic_Trends_-_The_Future_Starts_Today.pdf\">\u5168\u7403\u6218\u7565\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u672a\u6765\u4ece\u4eca\u5929\u5f00\u59cb\uff08\u7b2c\u516d\u7248\uff09\u3002<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em> <\/em>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u5185\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u65f6\u95f4\u6027\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u5e76\u4e0d\u5341\u5206\u660e\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6839\u636e\u53d1\u75c5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u8fdc\u8fd1\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u53d1\u75c5\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u8fdc\u8fd1\uff0c\u5bf9\u98ce\u9669\u6216\u5a01\u80c1\u8fdb\u884c\u5206\u7c7b\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u82f1\u56fd\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u548c\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709 <em>\u77ed\u671f\u89c6\u91ce\u626b\u63cf<\/em>&nbsp;\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u653f\u5e9c\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\uff0c\u5e76\u5173\u6ce8\u5728\u672a\u67656\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u5206\u7c7b\uff08\u4e0d\u516c\u5f00\uff09 <em>\u56fd\u5bb6\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\uff08NRA<\/em>)\u91cd\u70b9\u5173\u6ce8\u4e94\u5e74\u5185\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u98ce\u9669(<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.publications.parliament.uk\/pa\/cm201011\/cmselect\/cmsctech\/498\/49807.htm\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e0b\u8bae\u9662<\/a>).\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u4f7f\u7528 <em>\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\uff08NSRA\uff09&nbsp;<\/em> \u4e3a5\u81f320\u5e74\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u6700\u540e\u662f <em>\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30<\/em> \u5c55\u671b\u672a\u676580\u5e74\uff08\u82f1\u56fd\u5185\u9601\u529e\u516c\u5ba4\uff0c\"<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/drr.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/Portals\/0\/Partnerships\/Seminar\/1F%2020141016%20-%20%20Cabinet%20Office%20UK%20%20approach%20to%20assessing%20risk%20unclass_IDL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u82f1\u56fd\u8bc4\u4f30\u98ce\u9669\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/a>\u201c;<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.publications.parliament.uk\/pa\/cm201011\/cmselect\/cmsctech\/498\/49807.htm\" target=\"_blank\">\u4e0b\u8bae\u9662<\/a>; <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/uploads\/system\/uploads\/attachment_data\/file\/62484\/Factsheet2-National-Security-Risk-Assessment.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">\u6982\u51b5\u4ecb\u7ecd NSRA<\/a>;&nbsp;<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"http:\/\/www.theccc.org.uk\/tackling-climate-change\/preparing-for-climate-change\/climate-change-risk-assessment-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\">CCRA<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4eba\u4eec\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u65f6\u95f4\u6027\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7559\u7ed9 \"\u4e13\u5bb6\u5224\u65ad \"\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u8b66\u544a\u548c\u65f6\u9650\u6307\u6807<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u8fd9\u6d89\u53ca\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4-\u6307\u6807\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u5e8f\u5217\u6392\u5217\u6307\u6807\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\u8ddf\u8e2a\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002  \u6211\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\u6765\u76d1\u6d4b\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c\u6536\u96c6\u5404\u79cd\u8ff9\u8c61\uff08\u53c2\u89c1H Lavoix\uff0c\"<a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2012\/06\/22\/horizon-scanning-and-monitoring-for-anticipation-definition-and-practice\/\" target=\"_blank\">\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u626b\u63cf\u548c\u76d1\u6d4b\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5b9a\u4e49\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5<\/a>\u201c, <em>\u7ea2\u8272\uff08\u56e2\u961f\uff09\u5206\u6790\u534f\u4f1a<\/em>\uff0c2012\u5e746\u670822\u65e5\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5267\u60c5\u4e5f\u5305\u62ec\u8fd9\u79cd\u52a8\u6001\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3002\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u573a\u666f\u6dfb\u52a0\u5230\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u6307\u6807\u4e2d\uff0c\u4f1a\u4ee5\u67d0\u79cd\u65b9\u5f0f\u521b\u9020\u51fa\u65f6\u95f4 \"\u7ebf\"\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u300a\u661f\u9645\u8ff7\u822a\u300b\u4e2d\u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u663e\u793a\u975e\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8b66\u544a\u548c\u60c5\u666f\u4e2d\uff0c\u65f6\u95f4\u6027\u662f\u6839\u636e\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u548c\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u7edd\u5bf9\u662f\u5173\u952e\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u8db3\u591f\uff1f\u4e24\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u591a\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u6307\u6807\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff1f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\u5ea6\u662f\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u8fd8\u662f\u9759\u6b62\u7684\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u54ea\u4e9b\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u800c\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5462\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u98ce\u9669\u548cSF&amp;W\u5206\u6790\u5458\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u4f9d\u9760\u653f\u6cbb\u79d1\u5b66\u548c\u56fd\u9645\u5173\u7cfb\u6765\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u5426\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u6211\u4eec\u5904\u7406\u6765\u81ea\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u4e0d\u662f\u5f88\u4e50\u89c2\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\u5bf9\u6269\u6563\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u5174\u8da3\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e00\u4e2a\u60f3\u6cd5\u6216\u89c4\u8303\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\uff08\u4f8b\u5982Elie Kedourie, <em>\u6c11\u65cf\u4e3b\u4e49<\/em>\uff0c\u725b\u6d25\uff1aBlackwell\uff0c1960\u5e74\uff0c2000\u5e74\u7b2c4\u7248\uff09\u3002\u6709\u65f6--\u592a\u5c11\u4e86--\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f1a\u8003\u8651\u65f6\u95f4\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4ee5\u68c0\u67e5\u4e3a\u67d0\u4e00\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u6846\u67b6\u662f\u5426\u6b63\u786e\u3002\u66f4\u4e3a\u7f55\u89c1\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c06\u5173\u952e\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6392\u5e8f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89e3\u91ca\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u57c3\u7279\u66fc\u5728\u300a\u4e2d\u56fd\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u51fa\u8272\u5730\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u90a3\u6837\u3002 <em><a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/books.google.fr\/books\/about\/Birth_of_the_Leviathan.html?id=dQ53vjKiwR0C&amp;redir_esc=y\" target=\"_blank\">\u5229\u7ef4\u5766\u7684\u8bde\u751f<\/a><\/em> (Cambridge University Press, 1997)\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ece\u6574\u4f53\u4e0a\u770b\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u5bb6\u5728\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u878d\u5165\u4efb\u4f55\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b63\u5982\u4fdd\u7f57-\u76ae\u5c14\u68ee\uff08Paul Pierson\uff09\u6240\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u90a3\u6837&nbsp;<em>\u65f6\u95f4\u4e2d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\uff1a\u5386\u53f2\u3001\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u5206\u6790<\/em>&nbsp;(Princeton University Press, 2004)\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"\u5f53\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5ffd\u89c6\u73b0\u5b9e\u793e\u4f1a\u8fdb\u7a0b\u7684\u6df1\u523b\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u5ea6\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u5f80\u5f80\u8981\u4ed8\u51fa\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7......\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u6027\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u7a81\u51fa\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u4ece\u975e\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u6709\u5229\u5730\u4f4d\u6765\u770b\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u770b\u4e0d\u89c1\u7684\u3002\u5c06\u653f\u6cbb\u7f6e\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6781\u5927\u5730\u4e30\u5bcc\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u611f\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u503c\u5f97\u89e3\u91ca\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u672c\u8eab\u3002(<a href=\"https:\/\/books.google.fr\/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=nVtptUoWuO4C&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA1&amp;dq=timing+social+science&amp;ots=OEJZIa1iPS&amp;sig=lkgpzUrWRO1h1tkWU2QiXLk2Lco#v=onepage&amp;q=timing%20social%20science&amp;f=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u76ae\u5c14\u68ee\uff0c2004: 2<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u5bf9\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/World_line2-blue.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"267\" src=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/World_line2-blue.jpg\" alt=\"\u4e16\u754c_\u7ebf2\u84dd\u8272\" class=\"wp-image-9929\" srcset=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/World_line2-blue.jpg 300w, https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/World_line2-blue-250x223.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9e\u8df5\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba9\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u8005--\u6700\u597d\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u5730--\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6216\u90a3\u4e2a\u60c5\u666f\u4f55\u65f6\u53d1\u751f\uff08\u65f6\u95f4\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u5b83\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u7eed\u591a\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\uff08\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\uff09\u4e00\u65e0\u6240\u77e5\u3002  \u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u6218\u7565\u5bb6\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\u53ef\u5229\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u5145\u5176\u91cf\u53ea\u80fd\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u5b8c\u5168\u7eb3\u5165\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u9884\u8b66\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\u63d0\u5021\u7684\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u548c\u9884\u8b66\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u6240\u6539\u5584\u3002\u51b3\u7b56\u8005\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6216\u90a3\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5c06\u88ab\u5176\u4ed6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u6240\u8ddf\u8e2a\u6216\u63d0\u524d\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff08\u65f6\u95f4\u8f74\uff09\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5728\u519b\u4e8b\u754c\uff0c\u6709\u65f6\u662f\u60c5\u62a5\u754c\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u548c\u4ece\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u5f88\u5c11\u5728\u6218\u7565\u9884\u89c1\u6216\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u52a0\u5165\u9884\u8b66\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u5f80\u5f80\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u5bf9\u65f6\u95f4\u6027\u7684\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e86\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u5bf9\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u6218\u7565\u7684\u8bbe\u8ba1\u3001\u9009\u62e9\u548c\u89c4\u5212\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u7528\u9014\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u800c\u672a\u6765\u5462\uff1f<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u8fd9\u91cc\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u53bb\u54ea\u91cc\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u6240\u77e5\u9053\u548c\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u7ee7\u7eed\u52aa\u529b\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5e94\u8be5\u7279\u522b\u8003\u8651\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u91cf\u5b50\u4fe1\u606f\u79d1\u5b66\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u4e0d\u53ef\u601d\u8bae\u7684\u65b0\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u65b9\u9762\u53d6\u5f97\u65b0\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u4f46\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">---<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7279\u8272\u56fe\u7247\u3002\u91cf\u5b50\u5f15\u529b\u5149\u5b50\u7ade\u8d5b--\u5728\u8fd9\u5e45\u56fe\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5149\u5b50\uff08\u7d2b\u8272\uff09\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u5149\u5b50\uff08\u9ec4\u8272\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u767e\u4e07\u500d\u3002\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u8bba\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u9ad8\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u5149\u5b50\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u65c5\u884c\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u4eec\u4e0e\u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u65f6\u7a7a\u6ce1\u6cab\u6027\u8d28\u7684\u4e92\u52a8\u66f4\u5f3a\u70c8\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u4f3d\u9a6c\u5c04\u7ebf\u66b4\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5149\u5b50\u7684\u8d39\u7c73\u6570\u636e\u672a\u80fd\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u5bf9\u65b0\u7684\u5f15\u529b\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u7684\u52a8\u753b\u94fe\u63a5\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u66fe\u671f\u671b\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u5ef6\u8fdf\u3002\u4fe1\u7528\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/mission_pages\/GLAST\/news\/first_year.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u5bb6\u822a\u7a7a\u822a\u5929\u5c40\/\u7d22\u8bfa\u739b\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\/\u6b27\u7f57\u5c14-\u897f\u8499\u5c3c\u7279\uff08\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u6807\u7b7e\u4e2d\u6253\u5f00\uff09\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u5b87\u822a\u5c40\/\u7d22\u8bfa\u739b\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b66\/\u6b27\u7f57\u5c14-\u897f\u8499\u5c3c\u7279<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4ece\u4f01\u4e1a\u754c\u5230\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bfb\u6c42\u9003\u907f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u610f\u5916\u3002\u8fd9\u5bf9\u751f\u5b58\u548c\u53d1\u5c55\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4fdd\u62a4\u6211\u4eec\u514d\u53d7\u5a01\u80c1\u3001\u5371\u9669\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7684\u9700\u8981\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u6574\u4f53\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8bc6\u522b\u5a01\u80c1\u7684\u80fd\u529b--\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u613f\u610f\u7684\u8bdd--\u5df2\u7ecf\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u9a8c\u548c\u5b9e\u8df5\u800c\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53d8\u5f97\u76f8\u5bf9\u9ad8\u6548\uff0c\u5728... <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/01\/30\/time-strategic-foresight-warning-risk-management\/\" class=\"more-link\">\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\"\u6218\u7565\u8fdc\u89c1\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u4e2d\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\"<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20572,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1731],"tags":[188,2051,1789,2560,197,624,2052],"class_list":["post-9899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-basics","tag-analysis","tag-duration","tag-featured","tag-open-access","tag-time","tag-timing","tag-when","entry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Time in Strategic Foresight and Risk Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Time is a crucial component of our ability to prevent surprise, handle threat and manage risk. This article assesses how we integrate time and suggests ways forward.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/redanalysis.org\/zh\/2019\/01\/30\/\u65f6\u95f4-\u6218\u7565-\u8fdc\u89c1-\u9884\u8b66-\u98ce\u9669-\u7ba1\u7406\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Time in Strategic Foresight and Risk Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Time is a crucial component of our ability to prevent surprise, handle threat and manage risk. 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