Real World Examples of Scenarios Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/category/how-to-foresee-and-warn/creating-scenarios-for-the-future/scenarios-real-world-examples/ Strategic Foresight & Early Warning ･ Political & Geopolitical Risk · Scenarios Tue, 14 Oct 2025 10:15:06 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://redanalysis.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/cropped-RTAS-Logo-Vectorise-Disque-Blanc-PNG-1000-x-1000-32x32.png Real World Examples of Scenarios Archives • The Red Team Analysis Society https://redanalysis.org/category/how-to-foresee-and-warn/creating-scenarios-for-the-future/scenarios-real-world-examples/ 32 32 128105080 Scenarios to Navigate the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Possible Futures (1) https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/24/scenarios-to-navigate-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-its-possible-futures-1/ https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/24/scenarios-to-navigate-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-its-possible-futures-1/#respond Thu, 23 Jul 2020 22:05:00 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=27395 Continue reading "Scenarios to Navigate the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Possible Futures (1)"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/24/scenarios-to-navigate-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-its-possible-futures-1/feed/ 0 27395 Scenarios for the Covid-19 and Post-Covid-19 Worlds – a Bibliography https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/03/scenarios-for-covid-19-and-post-covid-19-worlds-a-bibliography/ https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/03/scenarios-for-covid-19-and-post-covid-19-worlds-a-bibliography/#comments Fri, 03 Jul 2020 15:15:51 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=27109 Continue reading "Scenarios for the Covid-19 and Post-Covid-19 Worlds – a Bibliography"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2020/07/03/scenarios-for-covid-19-and-post-covid-19-worlds-a-bibliography/feed/ 1 27109 Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic https://redanalysis.org/2020/03/13/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios/ https://redanalysis.org/2020/03/13/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios/#respond Fri, 13 Mar 2020 16:48:09 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=26031 Continue reading "Worst Case Baseline Scenarios for the COVID-19 Pandemic"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2020/03/13/covid-19-worst-case-baseline-scenarios/feed/ 0 26031 Scenario The Rise of the Renminbi – Futures of the US Dollar Supremacy https://redanalysis.org/2018/04/03/scenario-the-rise-of-the-renminbi-futures-of-the-us-dollar-supremacy-free/ Tue, 03 Apr 2018 10:18:37 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=17823 In this article, part of our series on the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we focus our attention on the scenario “The Rise of the Renminbi”, which we deem more interesting in the way it would unfold. In the previous article, we highlighted three different main lead scenarios that could potentially describe the developments that will take place in the future, “The Rise of the Renminbi” being one of them. With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading …

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]]> 17823 Scenarios for the Future of the US Dollar Supremacy https://redanalysis.org/2018/03/05/scenarios-future-us-dollar-supremacy/ Mon, 05 Mar 2018 09:16:33 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=17634 With this series, trying to understand the possible futures of the US dollar supremacy, we have analysed the currency functions (medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account) that make the dollar the necessary currency together with the challenges looming over the petrodollar system, the perspective of the renminbi as a leading international currency and the possible impacts of cryptocurrencies over the international monetary system. We shall now outline the main lead scenarios (and eventual sub-scenarios) regarding the future of the US dollar supremacy, out of the corresponding set of scenarios covering the whole range possibilities for the future. In the next article, we shall focus our attention on the scenario we deem more interesting in the way it would …

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]]> 17634 Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods https://redanalysis.org/2017/10/16/final-scenario-for-the-future-of-libya-and-their-likelihoods/ https://redanalysis.org/2017/10/16/final-scenario-for-the-future-of-libya-and-their-likelihoods/#respond Mon, 16 Oct 2017 09:19:13 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=16482 Continue reading "Final Scenario for the Future of Libya and their Likelihoods"

]]> https://redanalysis.org/2017/10/16/final-scenario-for-the-future-of-libya-and-their-likelihoods/feed/ 0 16482 Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Lasting Salafist Victory https://redanalysis.org/2017/09/11/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-lasting-salafist-victory/ Mon, 11 Sep 2017 07:55:06 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15887 In this article, however unlikely it would appear currently*, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the Salafists — in other words, the ability of Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the initial victory of both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, finding that an Al-Qaeda victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered to be sub-scenarios of …

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]]> 15887 Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – A Salafist Victory? https://redanalysis.org/2017/07/10/evaluating-likelihoods-future-libya-salafist-victory/ Mon, 10 Jul 2017 08:54:04 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15706 In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory in Libya in the medium term by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the lasting victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Salafist Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in the indicators, mapping and likelihoods. Indeed, as events unfolded and intervention took …

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]]> 15706 Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (2) https://redanalysis.org/2017/06/19/evaluating-likelihoods-for-the-future-of-libya-scenarios-of-victories-2/ Mon, 19 Jun 2017 08:30:09 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15491 In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR—in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for the initial victory of each government, finding that a COR victory was least unlikely. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Total Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in …

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]]> 15491 Evaluating Likelihoods for the Future of Libya – Scenarios of Victories (1) https://redanalysis.org/2017/05/29/evaluating-likelihoods-for-libya-scenario-32-a-total-victory-1/ Mon, 29 May 2017 08:03:13 +0000 https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=15339 In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a total victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR. By total victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers. In the previous article, we evaluated the likelihood for various spillover scenarios occurring both in the event of partition and without partition. Now that intervention is already occurring, as we saw in our article on intervention scenarios, the “Total Victory” scenarios are considered sub-scenarios of Scenario 2: Intervention instead of independent scenarios. As such, this will be reflected in the indicators, mapping and likelihoods. Indeed, as events unfolded and intervention took place scenarios 3, which were about …

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