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	<title>战略前瞻 存档 • The Red Team Analysis Society</title>
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	<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/标签/战略-展望/</link>
	<description>战略前瞻与早期预警 ･ 政治与地缘政治风险 · 情景分析</description>
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	<title>战略前瞻 存档 • The Red Team Analysis Society</title>
	<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/标签/战略-展望/</link>
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<site xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">128105080</site>	<item>
		<title>关于地缘政治、战略前瞻、预警等问题的常见问答</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2022/03/10/faq-geopolitics-strategic-foresight-early-warning-and-more/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2022/03/10/faq-geopolitics-strategic-foresight-early-warning-and-more/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2022 14:39:54 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Definitions and process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Open Access]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight and warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">https://redanalysis.org/?p=34006</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[什么是战略远见？战略远见是一种分析的过程和方法。它旨在预测未来，并减少潜在的风险。
继续阅读]]></description>
		
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			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">34006</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>水符咒</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2022/03/09/%e6%b0%b4%e8%99%8e%e9%98%9f/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2022/03/09/%e6%b0%b4%e8%99%8e%e9%98%9f/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Mar 2022 19:44:17 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Sigils]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Water Security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[issue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monitoring]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Open Access]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red teaming]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sigils]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[water security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weak signal]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2132</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[水之符号 "的目标是每日扫描，重点关注水安全。我们目前正在研究新的人工智能方法，以提供更好的 "水之符号"。最初的免费版本从 2012 年 5 月持续到 2023 年 4 月。水之符号 "是一系列扫描，旨在探索地平线上与各种水安全相关的微弱信号。 <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2022/03/09/%e6%b0%b4%e8%99%8e%e9%98%9f/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"水纹"（The Water Sigils</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">2132</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>评估战略突发事件中的 "战略 "问题</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/11/29/%e6%83%8a%e5%96%9c%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/11/29/%e6%83%8a%e5%96%9c%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Nov 2021 19:30:03 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis and Assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ageing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[drone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iran]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Israel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[military forces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pentagon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pollinator]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic factor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic significance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic surprise]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic-level impact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategist]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategy]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=3005</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[战略预见和预警的基础是防止意外，更具体地说是防止战略意外。然而，如果我们脱离 "战略突袭 "的一般概念，并试图将其具体化，也就是说，如果我们试图将这一概念应用于我们试图预测的特定威胁或问题，那么......。 <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/11/29/%e6%83%8a%e5%96%9c%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e8%af%84%e4%bc%b0/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"评估战略突发事件中的 "战略""</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">3005</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>战略预见、警告和情报产品和文件</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/04/28/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd-%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81%e5%92%8c%e6%96%87%e4%bb%b6/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/04/28/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd-%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81%e5%92%8c%e6%96%87%e4%bb%b6/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Apr 2021 17:04:46 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Delivery]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foresight product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[warning]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=17797</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[以下是各国、国际组织和私营机构发布的与战略展望、预警、风险分析和情报有关的公开文件和产品。有趣的文件将逐步添加。最近，我们添加了美国国家情报总监办公室刚刚发布（2021 年 4 月 28 日）的视频，以宣传他们最近发布的... <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/04/28/%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5%e9%a2%84%e8%a7%81%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e6%99%ba%e8%83%bd-%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81%e5%92%8c%e6%96%87%e4%bb%b6/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"战略预见、警告和情报产品及文件"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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			<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">17797</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>战略前瞻和预警的传播</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/03/03/%e4%ba%a4%e4%bb%98-%e6%b2%9f%e9%80%9a-%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5-%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b-%e6%97%a9%e6%9c%9f%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/03/03/%e4%ba%a4%e4%bb%98-%e6%b2%9f%e9%80%9a-%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5-%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b-%e6%97%a9%e6%9c%9f%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Mar 2021 16:32:19 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Communication of Strategic Foresight and Early Warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[actionable foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bias]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[client]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[communication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[customer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[decision-maker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[delivery to clients]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[intelligence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[map]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mapping]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mind-set]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monitoring]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[policy-maker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reception]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recipient]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SF&W process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tool]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[user]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">http://helenelavoixredanalysis.wordpress.com/?p=93</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[如果不发出警告，警告就不存在。著名的预警专家辛西娅-格拉博（Cynthia Grabo）曾在 1942 年至 1980 年间担任美国政府的情报分析师（《预测意外：战略预警分析》，编者序言）。同样，预测产品（如情景模拟）............ <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2021/03/03/%e4%ba%a4%e4%bb%98-%e6%b2%9f%e9%80%9a-%e6%88%98%e7%95%a5-%e5%b1%95%e6%9c%9b-%e6%97%a9%e6%9c%9f%e9%a2%84%e8%ad%a6-%e4%ba%a7%e5%93%81/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"战略预见和预警的沟通"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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			<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">429</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>表达和理解估计性语言</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2020/02/24/%e8%a1%a8%e8%be%be%e5%92%8c%e7%90%86%e8%a7%a3%e4%bc%b0%e8%ae%a1%e6%80%a7%e8%af%ad%e8%a8%80/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2020/02/24/%e8%a1%a8%e8%be%be%e5%92%8c%e7%90%86%e8%a7%a3%e4%bc%b0%e8%ae%a1%e6%80%a7%e8%af%ad%e8%a8%80/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Feb 2020 17:21:02 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Definitions and process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[horizon scanning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[impact]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[probability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk assessment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[warning]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=25772</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[在处理未来问题时，我们使用的语言包括一些特定的概念，如概率和影响的表达。例如，在概率方面，我们使用 "很可能 "等词语，在影响方面，我们使用 "严重 "等词语。此外，为了真正完整，我们还应该加上置信度判断。正如......所解释的那样。 <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2020/02/24/%e8%a1%a8%e8%be%be%e5%92%8c%e7%90%86%e8%a7%a3%e4%bc%b0%e8%ae%a1%e6%80%a7%e8%af%ad%e8%a8%80/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"表达和理解估计性语言"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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			<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		
		
		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">25772</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>绘制量子计算竞赛图。英国国家量子技术计划</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/07/03/%e7%bb%98%e5%88%b6%e9%80%9a%e5%be%80%e9%87%8f%e5%ad%90%e8%ae%a1%e7%ae%97%e7%9a%84%e5%9c%b0%e5%9b%be-%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e9%87%8f%e5%ad%90%e6%8a%80%e6%9c%af%e8%ae%a1%e5%88%92/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/07/03/%e7%bb%98%e5%88%b6%e9%80%9a%e5%be%80%e9%87%8f%e5%ad%90%e8%ae%a1%e7%ae%97%e7%9a%84%e5%9c%b0%e5%9b%be-%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e9%87%8f%e5%ad%90%e6%8a%80%e6%9c%af%e8%ae%a1%e5%88%92/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jul 2019 09:08:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Quantum Information Science and the Future Quantum World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cyber-security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[national security]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Open Access]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[QKD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantum]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantum communication]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantum computing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantum sensing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[UK]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=23309</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[量子计算和更广泛的量子信息科学（QIS）比以往任何时候都更多地被列入全球议程。我们在此重点讨论英国国家量子技术计划和政策，以及英国在量子技术竞赛中的表现。这篇文章是我们对这个问题持续研究的一部分。随着第一项... <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/07/03/%e7%bb%98%e5%88%b6%e9%80%9a%e5%be%80%e9%87%8f%e5%ad%90%e8%ae%a1%e7%ae%97%e7%9a%84%e5%9c%b0%e5%9b%be-%e8%8b%b1%e5%9b%bd%e5%9b%bd%e5%ae%b6%e9%87%8f%e5%ad%90%e6%8a%80%e6%9c%af%e8%ae%a1%e5%88%92/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"绘制量子计算竞赛图：英国国家量子技术计划"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">23309</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Everstate：设置舞台（I）</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/04/07/%e8%ae%be%e7%bd%ae%e8%88%9e%e5%8f%b0-1/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/04/07/%e8%ae%be%e7%bd%ae%e8%88%9e%e5%8f%b0-1/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Apr 2019 08:25:25 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Creating Everstate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ecological setting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geographical location]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[geopolitics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[governance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[legitimacy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[modern nation-state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monopoly of violence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scenarios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Setting the stage]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Chronicles of Everstate]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=225</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Everstate 是我们为预见现代民族国家的未来而创建的一个理想类型。在这一具体的情景构建中，我们为 Everstate 搭建舞台，为关键的影响变量赋值，以便能够制定情景。关于制定方案所使用的方法的说明将在...... <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/04/07/%e8%ae%be%e7%bd%ae%e8%88%9e%e5%8f%b0-1/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"Everstate：设置舞台（一）"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">225</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>如何阅读大量的信息并与假新闻作斗争</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/04/03/%e9%98%85%e8%af%bb%e5%a4%a7%e9%a2%9d%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/04/03/%e9%98%85%e8%af%bb%e5%a4%a7%e9%a2%9d%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Apr 2019 08:20:50 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Information, data and sources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fake news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[propaganda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[skills]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[uncertainties]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[warning]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">https://www.redanalysis.org/?p=12754</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[当今令人难以置信且不断增长的信息量给我们带来了需要克服的具体挑战。同时，宣传的重新发现和社交网络上传播的谣言的力量，现在被称为 "假新闻"，只会使我们更需要在大量的信息中找到方向。这甚至是... <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/04/03/%e9%98%85%e8%af%bb%e5%a4%a7%e9%a2%9d%e4%bf%a1%e6%81%af/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"如何阅读海量信息，打击假新闻"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">12754</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>地平线扫描和预警监测：定义和实践</title>
		<link>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/03/04/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice/</link>
					<comments>https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/03/04/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Mar 2019 08:00:21 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Methodology of Early Warning and Scanning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[indications]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[issue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monitoring]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Open Access]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[scan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sigils]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic foresight and warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weak signal]]></category>
		<guid ispermalink="false">http://www.redanalysis.org/?p=2607</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[(重写和修订版）地平线扫描和监测预警是用于预见未来、预测不确定性和管理风险的一系列活动的一部分。它们的实践对于成功的战略预见和预警、风险管理、未来主义或任何预测性活动都至关重要。虽然监测是一个通用的和常见的术语，用于许多 ... <p class="link-more"><a href="https://redanalysis.org/zh/2019/03/04/horizon-scanning-monitoring-definition-practice/" class="more-link">继续阅读<span class="screen-reader-text">"早期预警的地平线扫描和监测：定义和实践"</span></a></p>]]></description>
		
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">2607</post-id>	</item>
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