每年,《经济学人》都会在其"......的世界 "系列中评估其过去年度预测(如2012年)的成功和失败。这是一个值得所有从业者借鉴的行为:如果我们要提供良好的、可操作的战略预见和警告,并改进我们的流程、方法,从而改进我们的最终产品,那么我们就应该经常评估我们的工作。现在我们已经完成了关于叙利亚战争状况的最后一系列更新,我们现在可以开始评估我们自己的情景和指标到目前为止的表现,如果它们需要更新,以及我们应该努力的潜在方法改进。评估情景 随着日内瓦会议的召开(见前文...
发布者:Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)
Helene Lavoix博士 is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow. 查看更多文章