Image: Council of Representatives Government posted on the Council of Representatives Facebook Page, 1 September 2016 In our previous article, we detailed a spillover scenario where conflict spills over in all directions, including Europe, Algeria, Niger, and Egypt. This article is focusing on possible scenarios depicting Libya’s partition that could stem from the Libyan war. In the first scenario, the Amazigh, Tuareg, and Toubou tribes move from ideas of autonomy to outright declaring independence and breaking away from the Libyan state as a result of marginalization and lack of security. In the second scenario, Libyans begin declaring independence and breaking away from the rest of Libya along provincial lines. In the last scenario, Libya splits apart along a north-south axis …

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发布者:Jon Mitchell (Ma)

他是一名独立的研究人员和作家,在美国自由大学攻读公共政策-国际事务硕士学位。他曾为一个非营利性国际组织撰写政治经济分析报告,为美国国会委员会编撰关于博科圣地的非官方分析报告,并为《外交政策杂志》撰写文章。在哈德逊研究所实习期间,他研究了关键的区域安全问题,并在其政治-军事分析中心分析了复杂的国际挑战。

ZH