编者注:中国已计划推出衍生品合同或 原油期货合约 在 上海国际能源交易中心 (在过去的两年中,以人民币计价的INE公司。该合同最初应该在2015年底开始,然后,在2016年9月,它又被推迟了一年(亨利-桑德森。 金融时报,2016年9月15日)。 该合同现在将在2017年底前推出(报道,2017年10月25日)。假设这确实最终发生了,我们是否将见证对美元霸主地位的挑战,更何况它与石油有关?什么是可能因此被藐视的石油美元体系?这个 "石油美元体系 "与整个美元霸主地位的关系如何?哪些行为者参与了这一特定的可能变化?中国的角色是什么?这些都是这里涉及的一些问题。

本文主要关注作为美元霸主地位核心的石油美元体系,以及它所遇到的挑战。同时,这些试验开始勾勒出国际货币体系的潜在未来。

As we investigate the possible futures of the USD supremacy in this series of articles, we 之前 highlighted that some international currency functions have important effects not only on the issuer’s private economic sector but also on its international stance in power terms. These are the store of value function at both the private and the public level and the trade function. In the case of the USD supremacy, the petrodollar system is at the heart of the trade function. We thus here dig deep not only into its role in upholding the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency but also into the challenges that this geo-political-economic arrangement is currently facing.

执行摘要

As we pursue our in-depth analysis of the tests to the US Dollar supremacy so as to foresee the future of the international currency system and the possible resulting political and geopolitical changes, this article, focusing on one of the main pivot of the American currency hegemony, analyses the petrodollar system and the challenges looming over it.

The petrodollar system is at the heart of American power. In a nutshell, the petrodollar system is grounded in the fact that if a country needs oil and oil is priced in dollars, this country has to own dollars or dollar-denominated assets to buy the oil needed. It results from a 1973 agreement between U.S. President Richard Nixon and King Faisal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia, according to which the U.S. bought Saudi oil in USD in exchange for Saudi American protection and purchase of American military equipment. The overall system allowed the U.S. to finance the mounting American debt, effectively sustaining not only the large current account deficits Washington has run but also its various military foreign operations.

The petrodollar system is facing a series of trials, which are likely to further develop in the near to medium-term future. First, geopolitical “rivals” to the U.S., such as Iran, Venezuela or Russia, promote and sign oil trade agreements denominated in currencies others than the USD. Second, China is likely favouring the rise of the Petroyuan. Two main drivers, notably when operating together, would allow for this dynamics to develop. First, by moving towards energy independency, the U.S. is itself 事实上 buying less oil, which decreases the amount of USD circulating and fragilise the system, unless other countries continue buying their oil in USD. It is the very initial agreement at the start of the petrodollar system that is as stake. Second, and relatedly, China has become the first world importer of oil. It may thus have more leverage with exporting countries, such as Saudi Arabia, to promote the Yuan. Meanwhile, China diversifies its portfolio of suppliers, thus spreading the possible use of its currency when purchasing oil. 

The challenges to the petrodollar system are supported by an array of trade agreements not related to oil, and denominated in currencies other than the USD. The actors involved are not only China, Russia and Iran, but also Turkey and Japan.

In conclusion, we highlight that Beijing, Moscow and Teheran are bound together by a deep convergence of interests that could lead to a profound transformation of the global monetary system.

Full article 3723 words – pdf 17 pages

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特色图片。 Shell Oil Refinery at Dusk 由 James Daisa, Flickr C.C. 2.0 Some rights reserved

关于作者:  Leonardo Frisani (巴黎大学硕士)目前专注于对美元霸主地位的挑战。除此之外,他的专业是国际安全,他的主要兴趣是地缘政治学、宏观经济学、气候变化、国际能源和历史。

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