影响和后果

Resulting from the Google AI China Center’s opening and then operations, we estimate rising likelihoods to see :

  • Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines
  • Rising competition regarding AI between U.S. and Chinese mammoth Companies
  • Human talents as stake in rising AI competition
  • “Forced” introduction of “open source” AI work in China
  • AI further progress and developments
  • Rising U.S. ability to stem the declining tide in terms of AI
  • Rising China’s influence in terms of AI
  • Rising China’s strength and capability to further develop AI
  • Strengthening capability of Chinese government and State to “keep in check” mammoth IT companies
  • Strengthening of Chinese political authorities
  • Increased China’s influence
  • 中国上升到顶级大国地位
  • US decline from sole superpower to major power status (in relative terms, the U.S. capability to stem decline out of this specific signal does not compensate for the corresponding Chinese gains)
  • Escalating Tension U.S. – China

(The corresponding symbolic board is located after the “facts and analysis section)

事实和分析

On 13 December 2017 during the 13 and 14 December Google Developer Days event in Shanghai, Fei-Fei Li Chief Scientist AI/ML *Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning), Google Cloud announced the creation of the Google AI China Center, their “first such center in Asia”. the center will focus on basic AI research, and is located in Beijing to attract as many talents as possible.

It follows logically from Eric Schmidt, Executive Chairman, Alphabet Inc. (Google) and Chair, Defense Innovation Board’s perception and assessment we singled out in a previous signal, according to which

“These Chinese people are good… It’s pretty simple. By 2020, they will have caught up; by 2025, they will be better than us; and by 2030, they will dominate the industries of AI.” (Eric Schmidt, Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Summit, CNAS, 1 Nov 2017)

相关的

人工智能何时为地缘政治提供动力 - 呈现AI

信号。中国在超级计算机领域的世界霸主地位和在人工智能领域的领先地位

中国的人工智能革命

信号。谷歌Alphabet首席执行官认为中国将在2025年引领人工智能发展

As a result Google is positioning itself to be present on a market that they see as being dominant in the future. In the meantime, by attracting these Chinese AI talents, they also potentially slow the AI development of their Chinese competitors, which are Alibaba, Huawei, TenCent or Baidu.

As underlined by the Chinese official viewpoint, such a competition may only be healthy and stimulating and promote innovation at Chinese level, notably in a field that is so close to the heart of China, which aims at becoming leader in AI. The Google AI Center shows the attractiveness of China, and will help China attracting notably Asian talents to China, de facto favouring China’s goals.

Finally, Google is certainly an interesting actor for the Chinese government as it is allowed on the Chinese-Global AI board, in as much as it can be also possibly used to check the mammoth power garnered by the IT Chinese giants. For example, according to a Huawei Director there is a Chinese lag in “developing open-source software”. Assuming that this position is shared by the Chinese political authorities, allowing Google to enter the AI competition in China is likely to be a perfect way to force Chinese companies towards more open-source efforts (yet of course without overestimating Google open efforts, as we are dealing here with for profit companies).

The Chinese government and state thus ensures it strengthens its hand in remaining master of China’s destiny.

对问题和不确定性的影响

? How threatening would a leadership of China in terms of artificial intelligence (AI) be perceived? What would mean escalating tensions between China and the U.S. involving AI and how would they play out? Are mammoth U.S. companies first global or American? (关键的不确定因素)

➚➚ Redrawing of the power map of the world along AI-power status lines

Rising competition regarding AI between U.S. and Chinese mammoth companies
Human talents as stake in rising AI competition

“Forced” introduction of “open source” AI work in China
AI further progress and developments

U.S. ability to stem the declining tide in terms of AI
China’s influence in terms of AI
China’s strength and capability to further develop AI

Capability of Chinese government and State to “keep in check” mammoth IT companies
Strengthening of Chinese political authorities

中国的影响
中国上升到顶级大国地位
➙➚ 美国从唯一的超级大国衰退到大国地位

 Potential for escalating tension U.S. – China

来源和信号

Opening the Google AI China Center

Since becoming a professor 12 years ago and joining Google a year ago, I’ve had the good fortune to work with many talented Chinese engineers, researchers and technologists. China is home to many of the world’s top experts in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning.

Google’s Beijing AI center can become global talent magnet – Global Times

Google announced Wednesday that it is opening an artificial intelligence (AI) research center in Beijing. This may serve as a springboard for China to attract top-ranking talent from around the world.

由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。

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