一个问题,在警告和延伸到SF&W方面,是 "一个情况,一个目标,一个机会,一个危险,一个威胁或一个风险,它是具体和确定的"。(Grabo, 2004)

例如,SF&W问题可以是国家间的和民事的 战争, 脆弱国家,不稳定, 能源安全, 石油,经济危机。 全球水安全,流行病和大流行病,如 COVID-19等等。我们在这里的 "全球问题 "部分讨论这些问题。

一个问题可以通过战略性的方式进行探讨 先见之明.在警告期间 过程,它将是 被监控的,通常要归功于基于以下因素的指标 模型.分析师将评估其潜在的发展(以获得对未来的判断)。

监测问题将允许识别警告问题,然后再通过适当的模型和相关指标对其进行监测。如果我们用能源作为元问题的例子,那么问题可以是 "石油安全"、"石油峰值"、"铀峰值"、"石油价格的波动"、"煤炭安全如果我们把资源看成是一个元问题,那么,"欧洲和俄罗斯之间的能源政治"、"太空采矿 "等问题以及更具体的 "Gasprom政策"、"北溪"、"东地中海的石油和天然气紧张局势 "等问题。 深海资源安全 是其中一个问题。

必要信息的收集是在监测和监督阶段进行的。该模型和相关指标引导着数据和信息的收集。

参考文献

Grabo, Cynthia M. , 预测突发事件。战略预警的分析Jan Goldman编辑,(Lanham MD: University Press of America, May 2004)。

特色图片 Fathromi Ramdlon 德 淘宝网 

发布者:Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)

Helene Lavoix博士 is President and Founder of The Red Team Analysis Society. She holds a doctorate in political studies and a MSc in international politics of Asia (distinction) from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London, as well as a Master in finance (valedictorian, Grande École, France). An expert in strategic foresight and early warning, especially for national and international security issues, she combines more than 25 years of experience in international relations and 15 years in strategic foresight and warning. Dr. Lavoix has lived and worked in five countries, conducted missions in 15 others, and trained high-level officers around the world, for example in Singapore and as part of European programs in Tunisia. She teaches the methodology and practice of strategic foresight and early warning, working in prestigious institutions such as the RSIS in Singapore, SciencesPo-PSIA, or the ESFSI in Tunisia. She regularly publishes on geopolitical issues, uranium security, artificial intelligence, the international order, China’s rise and other international security topics. Committed to the continuous improvement of foresight and warning methodologies, Dr. Lavoix combines academic expertise and field experience to anticipate the global challenges of tomorrow.

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