Image: Libyan dialogue participants in Skhirat, Morocco, posted on UNSMIL Facebook page, 26 June 2015r After having focused on understanding the actors in Libya’s civil war, and presented our basic scenarios outline (see previous post), with this article we shall begin detailing the scenarios and evaluating their likelihood, starting with assessing the potential for a peaceful solution for Libya’s future within the next three to five years. Scenarios 1: Towards Peace The Council of Representatives (COR) and General National Congress (GNC) have agreed to participate in diplomatic talks for the sake of achieving peace and ending Libya’s civil war. Click to access larger image Scenario 1.1: The Peace Negotiations, Brokered by External Forces, are Successful and a Peace Treaty is …

Continuer la lecture " Scénarios pour l'avenir de la Libye - Scénarios 1 : Vers la paix ? (1) "