2212-2213年EVT--实施Mamominarch结论

Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to 预知 的 future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. To face the various difficulties and widespread discontent, Everstate’s governing authorities decide to follow the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission that recommend to drastically reduce state expenditures.

(The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading – methodological or research note at the bottom of the post).

The Mamominarch conclusions become policy

All governing bodies thus adopt the conclusions of the Mamominarch Commission. New laws are enacted when needed, which is easily done as the major parties seating in Parliament were part of the Commission. The constitution is even changed to incorporate the new ideals and objectives. As top-level civil servants were also either part of the Commission or represented, legislation can be executed without any major impediment. Indeed, a mix of career and organisation related incentives*, as well as normative material and ideological stakes greatly facilitate execution at all levels.

As the major elite groups, including the lenders, were also present, no elite-prompted hidden opposition exists; liquidity and the various resources mastered by the elite, including the traditional mass media, are largely made available. International and Regional support by those organisations that were included in the Commission is strongly emphasised through various diplomatic gains and prestige attention. A few more  Everstatan officials and political figures obtain high level positions in various international fora.

Papers, articles, interviews and books from the various experts, famous people, and academics having been part of the Mamominarch Commission soon reinforce mass media support. “The Mamominarch break-through: reinventing true happiness” written by Novstate’s CEO and founder becomes an international best-seller, while Hollywood starts the production of the next blockbuster on the life-story of the successful businessman.**

As the new measures are heralded as the new type of governance adapted to the reality of Everstate and allowing for a happy future, in line with the worldview and its beliefs, citizens find back meaning and hope and accept the new laws and policies, although with some worries regarding the efforts they will have to consent. A few remain skeptics but their voices are muted by the majority and by the normative deluge of support to the new system. The unions hope that renewed growth will stop unemployment.

As a result, the Occupy Everstate movement loses many of its sympathisers. Furthermore, as the Mamominarch system means less state, the part of the movement that tends to embrace anarchism is satisfied. The presence of Evernet’s CEO within the Commission quells some of the fears regarding over-regulation of the Internet and online networking. Occupy Everstate tends thus to lose even more active supporters and apparently recedes. Its most active members can do nothing else than going back home. Yet, the links between them, notably through social networking are not severed.

Remains now to engineer the reforms and notably the delicate short-term transition.

Implementing the Mamominarch policies 

state and ruler expenditures s3

The variable upon which the Mamominarch Commission plays is “ruler and state spending” (see below methodological and research note).

The drastic reduction of expenses will reduce the deficit, stop borrowing and thus stabilise the interests, notably those paid abroad as a large amount of the debt is held overseas. However, the existing debt must also be reimbursed. This should be made possible overtime and as quickly as possible, notably with a positive current account.

First, Everstate must organise a temporary increase of resources extracted to meet the existing expenses, waiting for those to disappear or be significantly reduced. It must do so without impacting either the lenders’ nexus or the elite groups. However, as the overall situation has not yet changed (see 2012 EVT: Budget Deficit and Liquidity), the only way, as recommended by the Commission, is to sensibly increase taxes on personal income and on consumption, the latter being favoured as it is said to be less felt by citizens. To underline the temporary character of the effort a special contribution is created, “the salvation tax,” which will affect all tax payers incrementally and progressively and is perceived on all incomes (rate between 8% and 12%), will be paid as soon as 2213 EVT. Meanwhile a new tax on consumption of 3% on top of the existing ones, “the anti-debt tax” is applied immediately. Those taxes will be suppressed in five years.

The drastic reduction of public expenses is planned over a five-year period. All public services related to infrastructure will be decentralised and sold to the private sector within the next six to twelve months. All heath care related activities, and the whole pensions and retirement sector will similarly be privatized over the next two years. By 2217, aiming at  reducing the central civil service by 50%, whole sections of ministries will be priced and then sold, if the mission of the unit is seen as economically viable and better externalised, or transferred to a local administration. Services will then be paid either by the state or local administration through contracts following the outsourcing method, or directly by people, according to cases. Within the central state administration, the management of outsourcing is reinforced on an interagency or interministerial basis, while exchanges with The Regional Union for analysis and direction are increased. The education and university systems are considerably privatised and localised; Everstate, working hand in hand with the Regional Union, will keep only a mission of orientation and accreditation.***

With cuts equally divided in 5 steps, one per year, the foreign and diplomatic services, defense, intelligence and police budget are further reduced. Most operations of cooperation and aid will be the responsibilities of volunteer organisations and private firms within the year. Only the bare minimum of diplomatic presence will be kept, while analysis increasingly will rely on both private contractors and The Regional Union. The army will be further reduced across all functions, with a staggering increase in the use of private contractors, mainly operated by Novstate. The new cyber-division that was about to be created is contracted to a Novstate’s friend company. Police forces become localised and use of outsourcing through private security companies must become the norm. Novstate offers a centralised access to information and communication, besides operating many local police posts.

Within a year, state expenditures are already strongly reduced, but not sufficiently. As hoped, Everstate is upheld as model for having so efficiently and swiftly solved the problems that plague so many countries. The debt has been reduced through the flow of money generated by the privatizations. Income, notably taxes, is still insufficient to pay for  expenses, but the deficit is on its way to be reduced.

The success and the favourable environment attracts foreign capital, notably new banks, insurances and financial institutions developing new products, as well as foreign companies taking over some of the state services of Everstate, when those are not provided by Novstate and its friends companies. They mainly settle in Everstate’s capital. Foreign capital is also very active in allowing for the privatization of Everstate’s state infrastructure. CEOs, who think it would be more interesting for them to produce part of their goods in the Western provinces of Everstate, start building factories and hire local people. Meanwhile, medium to high-end tourism, notably in the snowy and mountainous North and on the coastal areas, is flourishing. Interestingly, the seaside area also attracts internet companies specialised in online shopping and electronic payments.

Unemployment, by mid-2213 EVT seems to be stabilised, even if it is not reduced. However, the brutal change of system has introduced a rampant fear, yet compounded by hope, in Everstatans as they see their income reduced and have to adapt to the new healthcare, pension system and to the whole new now privatized services. The answer to fear is a new harshness and selfishness in social relationships as each compete to try to earn more.

After those years of worry and stagnation, a real boom is starting to appear possible for Everstate, and its growth rate, although still low, is above those of its neighbours.

待续…

* See for an example of the way those incentives can interact, Nolan, Janne E., and MacEachin, Douglas, with Kristine Tockman, 在不确定的时代制定美国安全政策的话语、异议和战略惊奇. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University, Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, 2007; Chester A. Crocker, “Thirteen Reflections on Strategic Surprise,” Georgetown University, 2007.

** For dynamics between national security issues and apparatus and the movie industry, see Jean-Michel Valantin, Hollywood, the Pentagon and Washington. Anthem Press, 2005.

*** Some countries within the OECD are currently downsizing their civil service sector and  using privatization, with noticeable variations according to countries, see, for a study on the EU members, Forward Planning and International Affairs Bureau (B2), General, Directorate for Public Administration and the Civil Service, “Administration and the Civil Service in the EU 27 Member States: 27 country profiles” Republique Francaise, MINISTÈRE DU BUDGET, DES COMPTES PUBLICS ET DE LA FONCTION PUBLIQUE, 2008. With the 2010-2011 renewal of the crisis, downsizing in the public sector has increased, as for example, in the UK; government statistics on civil service employment since 1902. However, compared with the scenario used here, those changes have been or are  implanted over longer periods of time. For example, in Austria “The number of federal administration employees has fallen from 300,000 in 1985 to 133,000 at present” (2008). Further research on variations in the speed of the reforms and their impact would need to be undertaken.

——-

Methodological and research note

Working backward with ego networks

The method remains to use ego networks as previously. However, the model has been created in a forward manner, using existing work on state-building that takes as assumption an increase in needs and resources. Here the decisions taken in the scenario answer to a slightly different logic, as underlined in the 上一篇文章: they do not consider needs or state-building, but only a reduction of expenses.
We shall thus, in terms of ego network, sometimes have to work backwards, following the arrows from target to source to identify the value the source node could have, given the value attributed to the target node (this may also be seen as a variation on the method known as backcasting.)

Further research

Ideally, with more resources, notably a team of researchers, the values attributed to variables should be quantified, when the variables are about quantities. This will become even more obvious with the next posts.  Notably, it would be very interesting, assuming we were able to enter specific times for each link, to test the variation of those time periods according to changes in quantities, and vice versa. It is indeed possible – or even likely – that thresholds and tipping points may occur according to such variations. More broadly, such hypothesis could also be tested on qualitative variables, methodology to be defined.

匿名者：一种新的政治力量？

匿名者：一种新的政治力量？

匿名者、匿名运动、想法或"网络流行语用维基百科的描述，"已经成为全球政治舞台上一个越来越重要的角色，再也不能忽视了。

然而，它很少被视为一个政治行为者，尽管匿名者的演变，因为 半岛电视台的优秀时间线 正如《连线》杂志的奎恩-诺顿（Quinn Norton）在她非常有趣的文章中所详述的那样，这一点非常清楚。 由三部分组成的系列，研究匿名者的历史或者如视频中所示 匿名者的简短而奇怪的历史 由Ryan Singel为Wired发布。

相反，它通常被称为由黑客活动家（大多数媒体）、黑客和IT罪犯组成的团体（如 国际刑警组织)，甚至最近还出现了黑客，他们 "可能在未来一两年内有能力通过网络攻击在美国造成有限的停电"，正如美国媒体报道的那样。 华尔街日报引用国家安全局美国网络司令部主任的评论。 基思-亚历山大将军，完成"在白宫和其他地方的私人会议上“(CNET).

相反，对于匿名参与者（Anons）来说，匿名者确实是"一个想法，"（美联社援引twitter）"人民的意志"（CNET采访）。据此，匿名者在很大范围内产生了强烈的反应，从同情和钦佩到恐惧和厌恶。 正在进行的网络调查 由SodaHeadNews完成。

在时间允许的情况下，我将尝试从政治学的角度关注并记录匿名者作为一个政治行为体的演变。

———-

参考文献

Gorman, Siobhan "警惕黑客的权力游戏：美国官员对匿名团体的能力表示越来越多的关注"。 华尔街日报, 2012年2月21日。2012年3月5日访问。

Haddad, Mohammed, "互动时间轴。匿名者--全球网络行动主义运动的历史，从 "大笑 "到革命，" 半岛电视台, 最后修改。19 May 2011.2012年3月5日访问。

国际刑警组织，媒体报道，"据称与'匿名'组织有关的黑客在国际刑警组织支持的全球行动中成为目标"，2012年2月28日。2012年3月5日访问。

Keller, Greg "国际刑警组织称匿名者黑客嫌疑人被捕，"美联社，2012年2月29日。2012年3月5日访问。

Mills, Elinor, "匿名者如何引导 "人民的意志--问答"，2012年2月28日。 CNET.2012年3月5日访问。

诺顿。 奎因。 由三部分组成的系列，研究匿名者的历史2011年12月至2012年1月。 联网.2012年3月5日访问。

Reisinger, Don, "害怕匿名者？国家安全局局长说你应该害怕，" CNET, 2012年2月21日。2012年3月5日访问。

辛格尔。 瑞安。 匿名者的简短而奇怪的历史 (视频），2012年1月6日。 有线。 2012年3月5日访问。

SodaHead新闻民意调查, "警方逮捕了25名 "匿名 "黑客。匿名者是令人钦佩的还是不利的？"始于2012年2月29日。 SodaHead新闻.2012年3月5日，1,034票和1,198条意见。2012年3月5日访问。

维基百科，"匿名者（团体）"。2012年3月5日访问。

2212 EVT - 情景1 - Mamominarch。与国家决裂

Last episodes’ summary: 在 2212 EVT 中、 Everstate (与我们现实中的国家相对应的理想类型，其目的是 预知 的 future of governance and of the modern nation-state) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population. Plagued with a deepening budget deficit and an increasing need for liquidity, a creeping appropriation of resources while the strength of central public power weakens to the profit of various elite groups and with an outdated worldview that promotes misunderstanding, disconnect and thus inadequate actions, the political authorities are increasingly unable to deliver the security citizens seek. Thus, risks to the legitimacy of the whole system increase. Alarmed by the rising difficulties and widespread discontent, the governing authorities decide to do something. Three potential scenarios or stories will be told: “Mamominarch: Off with the State,” “Panglossy: Same Old, Same Old,” and “Genuisy: the Making of History.” Here we start the first scenario: “Mamominarch: Off with the State,”

(The reader can click on each picture to see a larger version in a new tab – a navigating map of posts is available to ease reading).

The Mamominarch Commission

Considering the difficulty of the problems at hand, and the need for a consensus among powerful elite groups, as well as regional and international actors, to see the array of measures applied, once they would be identified, Everstate’s government convenes a high level commission that must find out what has to be done.

The highest level of the government thus hand-picks to participate in the work: high level government and state officials, the latter representing civil servants, parliamentary representatives of the major parties, who had been in power alternatively for the last seven decades, famous economists Everstatan and foreign, the director of the Everstatan School of Liberal Politics, management experts, business leaders, notably the CEOs of Novstate and its friends companies, the CEOs of the largest banks and largest financial funds, business consultants, experts in new technologies, high level officials of the IMF and WTO and of the Regional Union. All powerfully stand for the 规范性秩序 to which Everstate belongs and for the major entrenched elite groups. As an exception to this rule, the CEO of a very performing high-tech Everstatan company, Evernet, is also invited to represent the emerging elite group related to computing and networking.

After two months of intense debates and work, most often done by the staff of those personalities that participate in the high level working group, the Mamominarch Commission, as it is now known, reaches the conclusion that the root cause of the problems is an impossibility to match public expenses with public income, even in times of economic growth, and thus that the obvious solution is to drastically lower public expenses.

Structure of general government expenditures 2008 (OECD 2010)

Of course, this solution is designed in terms of expenses and not of needs, but is it really a problem? The normative model of the time, which has been just so successful into bringing wealth and growth, upholds free entrepreneurship, free trade and free market as ideal. Meanwhile, the state and especially its bureaucracy tend to be seen as expensive and inefficient, obviously unable to adapt to the new conditions as the deteriorating situation proves, and furthermore unable to contribute to ensure its primary mission, the security of its population as, again, the protests and the increasing tension shows. It thus makes complete sense to push the normative order one step further and to finally apply it fully: to rely on free entrepreneurial forces and on the market to provide for goods and services as much as possible, to always work in this direction, while the state must wither away. After a short period of adaptation everyone will be happy and definitely better off as balance will have been restored and this time permanently.

What will be more delicate to engineer is the short-term future, when further efforts in terms of income will be asked from the population, as existing debts must be reimbursed and interests paid. But, the difficulties will only exist for a very short period of time, as the renewed growth will rapidly make the effort painless.

Some civil servants will have to be laid off but as services will be taken over by the private sector, they will certainly find work again very rapidly, on the model of Novstate. Such a move may even enhance their career, as the economy will certainly be greatly boosted by this new system.

Furthermore, selling whole parts of the state, as has already been started, will bring in more money that will be used to reimburse debts, thus helping stabilise taxes. There will be no need to find really new taxes, except, maybe, for a short period of time, and especially no need to truly start thinking about ways to make the 贷款人的关系 pay more tax – which is, anyway, something really difficult to craft as the whole financial system has become so complex, and would ask for international treaties, which would demand too long to obtain, assuming it were possible.*

The Shadow Banking System, Conceptualized, designed and created by Zoltan Pozsar, The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, November, 2009

Finally, as many members of the Commission underline, this will be good for business, attract investment, and put Everstate in rank to compete with the top financial and businesses orientated places in the world.

Only a minimum army and police will remain at state level. Most of the police force will now be under the responsibility of local towns, as, anyway, criminality has to be solved by proximity actions, on the ground, and through a better understanding of criminals. Operations against existing national threats will be shared between what remains of the defence forces, with a rising use of private contractors. Novstate’s CEO has pledged during the debates that his company and its friends businesses would do their utmost to fulfill any need Everstate would have in this matter.

PR, communication and advertisement specialists, as well as lobbyists, are now brought in to make sure that the conclusions and message of the Mamominarch Commission are delivered at best so that they become policy decisions adopted by Everstate’s governing bodies.

Everything goes indeed very smoothly and all Mamominarch’s conclusions are adopted.

待续…

——

参考文献

* Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft, and Hayley Boesky, Shadow Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 458, July 2010; “According to one measure of the size of the shadow banking system, it grew rapidly before the crisis, from an estimated $27 trillion in 2002 to $60 trillion in 2007, and remained at around the same level in 2010.” Financial Stability Board (FSB), Shadow Banking: Strengthening Oversight and Regulation, October 2011, p.1;  Brook Masters (2011-10-27). “Shadow banking surpasses pre-crisis level”. 金融时报. accessed 2012-02-10.

 

2212 EVT：过时的世界观中的物质利害关系（《Everstate编年史》）。

Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to 预知 的 现代民族国家的未来) knows a rising dissatisfaction of its population as authorities cannot anymore deliver security. The last phenomenon driving Everstatan governing bodies’ rising inefficiency in ensuring their mission is an outdated worldview that leads to misunderstanding and disconnect, which is first upheld by ideological stakes.


The knowledge institutions and related people, which are guardians of norms and thus have ideological stakes in upholding an outdated worldview, are also motivated by material stakes in seeing norms respected, upheld and continuing. Indeed, their institutional  survival depends on the continuation of those models, for example, through funding and employment.

Even if some or most within those institutions (again with variations according to their exact normative function) are increasingly aware that models have to be revised – but how far and how deep – being the first to do so could mean being cast away and thus losing both status and income. Individuals within institutions are caught in a system similar to traders on the stock exchange in the period preceding the burst of a bubble.

Furthermore, as the lender nexus and other elite groups benefit from the new means to appropriate public power, as those appropriations are permitted by the current model and underlying norms and thrive from the lack of real understanding, then those elite groups also have a material stake in seeing the current model and norms remaining in power. This is even more the case that some of those elite groups gained status as well as income only because of the absence of adequate models. If another model of socio-political organisation existed that allowed Everstate to face the new pressures, ensure security and thus bring back the satisfaction of the population then those elite groups would lose power. They are thus most unlikely to willingly abandon their new found or reinforced privileges.

If or when new understanding and new models, possibly with the slower creation of new norms and beliefs emerge, this will create new elite groups.

The discarded model will imply the disappearance of existing elite group. Those new and disappearing elite groups will not only be related to understanding and knowledge as well as needed skills but also to the disappearing and emerging needed resources, that will then be fully integrated within the new model.

Any attempt at proposing something new or different is thus, for now, either muted or remoulded in agreement with the existing paradigm. Its authors, if they are too weak institutionally, are either marginalised or bought in to the price of the novelty of their ideas. In one way or another, new ideas are not heard.

Thus beliefs outlast the situation. As beliefs constrain understanding, which in itself conditions actions, a growing disconnect takes place between reality and actions. As actions disregard reality, they may only imply further dissatisfaction and become essentially increasingly escalating in terms of tension and scope of grievances.

For example, in other countries, protests then violence had followed an escalating pattern. For the initial phases, that looks very much like what is happening in Everstate. There, the trigger had been, surprisingly for the government and the elite, an increase in food prices. Yet, such increases had been constant over the past three years. This new price rise had not even been major. People had been thought to be used to those increases that were, anyway, expected. Furthermore, people had been repeatedly told that such inflation was not that important because the prices of so many other items, including wages, were not increasing, which showed, from the economy and monetary experts’ point of view that there was no real generalised inflation. Obviously, the monetary and economy gurus had forgotten to consider that seeing constant increase in food prices while wages were remaining stable would soon become a major problem in real life for real people. They had also forgotten that despite beliefs in the law of the market, the demand for some vital goods was inelastic, and that related shortage was not an option. Those would be translated in political terms rather than nicely remain within the sole economic field. Thus, the analytical tools set up by experts were congruent with the model and the norms, but so far away from reality that escalation and tension could not only rise unnoticed, but also be dismissed. When violence exploded, it took everyone by surprise. The strength of the norm is such that quickly an explanation fitting the model and avoiding possibly questioning it surfaces: the revolutions that took place could be explained by the need to embrace the democratic model, not by any other need.* Thus, from the normative point of view, Everstate, being a democracy and having been for quite a while, can learn no lessons from those other protests and their escalation, as they bear no resemblance whatsoever with what is happening in Everstate… or so the model says.

The situation into which Everstate and the normative world to which it belongs find themselves is blocked.

The people and the nation, composed actually of the same people, are twice discontented: first, as people, they have to pay for the elite, adjust to new less than pleasant working and living conditions; second, as ruler, they are seeing their power dwindling. Furthermore, fear and anxiety starts spreading as understanding either lacks or appears by bursts, soon to be muted while meaninglessness settles.

The situation is increasingly unsustainable and leads Everstate to its loss.

As the people and the nation start taking actions to express their discontent and see their goals met, their representatives begin considering changing the situation as continuing delivering security to citizens is the only way for them to still govern thus to remain in power.

But what can be done? And by whom?

待续…

*The inspiration for this paragraph comes from the 2008 food riots, as well as from the winter and spring protests and rebellions that occurred in the Middle East and North Africa. For a very interesting article on Egypt suggesting very early a different interpretation, read, for example, Walter Armbrust: “A revolution against neoliberalism? If rebellion results in a retrenchment of neoliberalism, millions will feel cheated,” Al Jazeera English, 24 Feb 2011, This article first appeared on Jadaliyya.

俄罗斯 2045年

俄罗斯 2045年 - 战略性社会运动

俄罗斯 2045年
俄罗斯2045网站的标志和左角 - 点击图片进入网站。

俄罗斯2045》是俄罗斯对未来的一个有趣的倡议。它希望不仅仅是这样，它是一个新模式的运动，实际上是一个新的意识形态，根据其 宣言围绕创建 "工作控制论生物体 "而组织起来的，以俄罗斯为首。它接近于 奇异性 想法，而且，确实如此。 雷-库兹韦尔 作为演讲者的特色 期间 2045年全球未来大会 2012年2月16日至20日在莫斯科举行*。 为GF2045制作的视频（如下）很好地解释了该运动的原因和目标。俄罗斯2045和GF2045的网站上都有许多非常有趣的文章和视频。

俄罗斯2045》最初于2011年2月由新媒体之星总裁Dmitri Itskov（又名《俄罗斯2045》）创建。 在内华达州拉斯维加斯成立的国内有限责任公司)，并将俄罗斯科学家列入其 倡议小组.顺便说一句，它也得到了一位美国演员的支持 史蒂芬-西格尔，他在2011年5月要求普京支持这一运动。

据网站介绍，GF 2045得到了欧亚大历史与系统预测中心、东方研究所和俄罗斯科学院的支持。T他 欧亚大历史与系统预测中心 2011年5月25日，由中国人民大学学术委员会成立。 东方研究学院 的。 俄罗斯科学院 (RAS)。其 任务说明 内容如下。"欧亚大历史与系统预测中心（ECBSF）寻求发展宇宙、地球、生命和人类的统一和跨学科的历史。它还寻求发展区域和全球层面的社会、政治、人口、民族和文化进程的系统预测"。在其任务中，人们发现 "政治咨询"，这使该中心牢牢地定位在当前的科学领域。 演变。 并显示了科学界为夺回其作为决策顾问的地位而做出的全球努力，这一点也以不同的方式体现在由伦敦经济学院领导的 社会科学项目的影响.

下一届GF2045大会应于2013年春季在纽约市举行。

* 里卡多-K-苏尔兹巴赫瓦斯 @rkucerasulzbach 最初在Twitter上提到了GF2045。

浏览Everstate的编年史

This page presents ways to follow and access the series of posts constituting The Chronicles of Everstate beyond usual linear menus.This idea, mapping the very posts of The Chronicles of Everstate, is a direct result of the interactive quality of this foresight experiment. One faithful reader, indeed, underlined that, as the number of posts increased, reading and understanding was becoming more complex, notably for newcomers. He suggested that a map would be very helpful to allow users and readers to navigate among posts. We then discussed various ways to implement this idea. Here are the results of this idea. The Chronicles of Everstate Mapped with PearltreesClick on the image to access the interactive map of the articles on Pearltrees. There, the …

继续阅读“Navigating the Chronicles of Everstate”

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2212 EVT：过时的世界观中的意识形态利害关系（《Everstate编年史》）。

Last episodes’ summary: In 2212 EVT, Everstate (the ideal-type corresponding to our very real countries created to 预知 的 现代民族国家的未来)知道民众的不满情绪在不断上升。政治当局越来越无力保障公民所寻求的安全，这增加了整个体制合法性的风险。导致埃弗斯塔坦政治当局无力提供安全保障的前两个现象是：预算赤字不断加深，对流动资金的需求不断增加，以及与此相关的资源侵占，而中央公共权力的力量却在削弱，从而使各种精英集团获利。第一类是贷方集团。第二类精英集团正在发展以 Everstate 所需的资源为重点的据点，Novstate 公司的极端外包形式就是一个例子。

过时的世界观导致误解和脱节

Discontent settles in Everstate, with its corollary of slowly rising tension, widening scope of grievances, and creeping feeling of injustice. People continue, in vain, to seek security. Everstatans try to give meaning to their hardship, to understand what is happening to them and why.

Meanwhile, Everstate’s governing bodies also look for ways to solve the various problems they face, which demand understanding the situation.

功能日益失调的模式（规范和社会政治）S3

这种追求意味着，"Everstate "以及更广义地说，"Everstate "所属的自由秩序目前所持的规范模式越来越失灵和过时。事实上，如果对这些模式进行调整，它们将为高效、令人满意的行动和意义提供正确的框架。而现在，一切都不再有意义，情况几乎每天都在恶化。经济效率越来越低；政治当局的行动一再无法确保安全；不满情绪增加；国家机器的正式官僚机构在许多层面上受到质疑，包括官僚机构本身；国家基础设施现在似乎无法履行其职能；对公共资源和权力的侵占增加。这些都是所遵循的模式出现问题的信号或症状。

但是，既然如此，为什么新的模式还没有出现呢？到底发生了什么，为什么？

事实上，Everstate 和它的伙伴国家现在必须面对一个社会可能面临的最严峻的挑战之一，如果不是最严峻的挑战的话。他们面临的内在困难是，必须改变构成其生活和相关机构的各种模式。

目前，只有一种主要的社会政治秩序模式决定着世界上大多数国家（包括 Everstate ）的组织和行为：现代民族国家，其自由民主的版本只关注公民物质福利的改善。其他变体，如共产主义，正如冷战所显示的那样，已经失败了，我们已经从其他国家的经验中吸取了教训。除此之外，别无他法。因此，如果需要变革，就必须创造新的东西，而这确实非常困难。

规范性信念 第 3 步

首先，意识形态的利害关系在起作用。社会政治秩序的模式既植根于过去，也植根于日益深化的信仰体系，而这些信仰体系本身又是历史性地建构起来的*。

The first layer is a system of norms or beliefs, which can be seen as an 意识形态 (a set of ideas), and quite akin to a religious system of beliefs, with all the sacred connotations and emotional attachment that may go with it.

It will also contain the culture and mores of a specific society or country.  It evolves slowly with time. From this level are derived, for example, the legal concepts applied in each country.

然后，这一层又包含在系统层面的规范性信仰中，并与之相互作用，这些规范性信仰是由不同的信仰体系和行为者之间的相互作用构建而成的。例如，国家是领土、主权、独立的存在，现代化（现代化）的重要性，这是从 19 世纪末开始构建并强加给世界的准则**。

然后，我们会发现最深层次的规范，可以称之为范式，其中包含那些最关键、最深刻和最基本的价值观。 例如，关于生与死、关于人类在宇宙中的地位、关于宇宙的进化、关于基本伦理等的基本思想都可能位于这一层次。

每一层规范都是过去演变和过去规范的结果，是集体努力面对过去历史状况的产物。每一层都以不同的速度演化，其程度越深，改变它的难度就越大，任何潜在的改变都会带来更大的威胁，在集体和个人层面上，改变它的经历也会更加喋喋不休。然而，由于更表层的社会政治模式以其特定的 Everstatan 形式存在于其他层面之中，并包含了其他层面的元素，因此任何改变都同样会带来恐惧。

除了人类在面对新的证据时难以修正模式****之外，考虑到改变社会政治秩序模式的困难和后果，保持这种模式的意识形态利害关系也是如此。最后，由于这些模式是规范性的，对其提出质疑就会产生一种被群体抛弃的恐惧，而这种恐惧又是内化的，因为如果一个人被排斥在群体之外，他就不可能独自生存。因此，可能质疑这些模式的新证据要么被忽视，要么被有意无意地否定。这种否定的可能性随着所触及的信念的深度而增加。

大学、知识机构

知识和理解机构是意识形态和规范体系的保障。因此，根据它们所维护和代表的规范，它们也为社会中的管理机构提供合法性。至少在一开始，根据其特定的规范立场，它们倾向于进一步禁止质疑，阻止新思想和新模式的出现。与此同时，由于现实与准则之间的脱节日益加剧，以及由此产生的功能障碍和困难，人们越来越强烈地要求另一种理解，一种适应当前现实的理解，这为其他知识传播者的崛起或传统知识传播者的重大革新提供了力量。

考虑到 Everstate 在历史上和规范上的地位，知识和理解机构主要位于学术界，特别是那些设计和维护最新社会政治秩序模式的部门：经济学系和商学院，并得到一些最自由和最具经济头脑的政治学研究的支持，以及一些更专注于技术和应用科学的部门。

Everstate 拥有非常优质的大学，在过去的 60 年里，它们提供了越来越多公认的科学知识和理解，尤其是在经济、商业和技术等主要规范领域。它们培养了一代又一代的公务员，同时也发挥着智囊团的作用。由此提供的分析在全国范围内得到广泛认可，被认为具有解释性，并为统治机构提供了良好的建议，从而促进了善治，并使国家的合法性神圣化。这些大学融入了全球学术网络，"Everstate "学者的足迹遍布世界各地，在国际研讨会上也能听到他们的声音，同时他们也为全球知识做出了贡献。

有趣的是，在 Everstate 中，科学机构不再被视为一个单一的机构，作为一个单一的行为者，它将保护所有的规范。在过去的几个世纪中，学科组织被那些坚持以现代化和唯物主义方式划分世界的人所掌控，使少数人获得了权力，但学科组织本身也蕴含着潜在革新的种子。事实上，随着对新的充分理解的需求增加，如果必须修改规范，如果必须摒弃某些信仰，那么学科的分离就意味着科学没有必要完全消亡，而只需要修改甚至摒弃其中的一部分。这也意味着，在不久的将来，大学内部、Everstate 和全球范围内都可能发生争斗。

一些教会，至少是那些适应现代生活中更物质化部分的教会，也有助于维护规范。然而，由于埃弗斯塔特人对宗教相对不感兴趣，教会的影响迄今为止还微不足道。然而，人们注意到，随着公民寻求意义和理解，一些宗教正在复兴，而主流信仰已不再带来这种理解。因此，在未来的岁月里，教会很可能会发挥越来越重要的作用，尤其是在科学无法在需要时得到更新的情况下。

国际机构，如国际货币基金组织（IMF）、世界银行或联合国各机构，诞生于最新的制度规范，为了维持这些规范，它们也为加强这些规范的普遍性和正统性做出了贡献。最新诞生的全球性机构是私营机构，它是一个强大的全球性公司协会，甚至可以影响国家元首。它维护所有与商业有关的准则。为实现进一步的或不同的地区和全球治理而做出的努力，让我们期待着在这一层面出现新的参与者，以及即将到来的相关规范之争。任何质疑或改变这些组织所维护的准则的企图都会遭到激烈的反对。

为了完善这一结构，我们发现在这些机构中接受过培训的专业人员，在掌握了对这一在过去条件下建立的系统的运作至关重要的技能之后，也充当了规范的守护者。例如，来自企业界的商业顾问或高级管理人员，尤其是在与金融相关的领域，充当着不容置疑、不容置疑的大师的角色。考虑到其混合特性，Novstate 在规范领域尤为活跃，从为大学和智囊团的研究项目提供专项资金，到充分利用其朋友网络，尤其是在主流媒体中。

待续…

———-

* 四层准则和信念的组织结构在此只是一个假设。它们中的每一层都可能是一个复杂的系统，对它们之间的相互作用、产生和演变方式进行更多的研究将是非常有价值的。

** 尤其见 Bull, H.、 无政府主义社会。世界政治中的秩序研究(London: MacMillan,1979); Bull, H. and A.Watson、 国际社会的扩展(牛津：Clarendon Press, 1984); Gong, G. W..、 国际社会的 "文明 "标准(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1984), Lavoix, Helene、 民族主义 "和 "种族灭绝"：民族性、权威和反对的构建--柬埔寨的案例（1861-1979）--博士论文--东方和非洲研究学院（伦敦大学），2005年关于现代化，参见吉登斯，安东尼、 现代性的后果剑桥：政治出版社，1990 年）。

*** 小理查德-豪雅、 情报分析的心理学, 中央情报局情报研究中心，1999 年，将认知偏差定义为 "由我们简化的信息处理策略造成的心理误差"，源于 "处理信息的潜意识心理程序"。认知偏差是一种具有一致性和可预测性的心理错误"。第 9 章。除其他偏差外，在这里起作用的还有一种偏差，即所谓的 "基于不可靠证据的印象持久性（难以抛弃最初创建的因果模型）"。- Anderson, Craig A., Mark R. Lepper, and Lee Ross."社会理论的持久性。解释在信誉不佳的信息持续存在中的作用." J杂志 人格与社会心理学》，1980 年，第 39 卷，第 6 期，1037-1049 页。

2212 EVT：Novstate的力量（Everstate的编年史）

Last episodes’ summary:在 2212 EVT 年，长期预算赤字不断加深，对流动资金的需求不断增加。 Everstate (与我们现实中的国家相对应的理想类型，其目的是 预知 的 现代民族国家的未来)使贷款人精英集团的权力越来越大，从而允许以新的形式侵占公共权力。Everstate 陷入了恶性循环。

关于与精英团体合作的困难

导致埃弗斯塔坦政治当局无力提供安全保障的第二种现象是相关的新的公共资源侵占和中央公权力的削弱，从而使各种精英集团获利，其中第一个精英集团是放贷集团. 由于流动性之外的许多需求依然存在，Everstate 的统治者（现代国家、民选管理机构和国家）别无选择，只能求助于那些掌握所需资源的精英。 由于 Everstate 面临新的压力，需要新的工作人员来进行管理，因此与精英合作的必要性增加了。

与此同时 各种压力的加剧 这意味着对人力的重新需求，而这些人力迄今为止一直被各种精英集团所使用（这里的人力包括军队、警察和部分垄断国家暴力的平民；工作人员包括所有其他公务员）。例如，由于 Everstate 想要保持其对暴力的垄断，网络威胁和新的网络安全领域的加强意味着迄今为止主要为 IT 跨国集团工作的 IT 专家和专家现在也需要并被国家招募。同样，所有军事技术都会影响国家对人力的需求。与此同时，管理机构满足这一需求的能力也会影响军队的表现和规模。

由于精英集团寻求保护和增加其权力、地位和资源，这种与精英合作的需求已经并仍在导致以 Everstate 政府和议会为一方、以精英为另一方的一系列谈判。这些谈判的结果直接影响到军队的规模和表现、国家的正式官僚机构，当然也影响到侵占公共权力的各种方式。

自 21 世纪 90 年代以来，EVT、Everstate 经常输给自己的精英，特别是通过一种极端形式的外包现象。尽管国家与私人企业和专家签订合同并非新现象，而且确实有必要，但必须保持微妙的平衡。在 21 世纪 90 年代，外包开始呈现出新的特点。与治理直接相关的整个领域现在都掌握在私营公司手中，特别是实力雄厚的 Everstatan 公司 Novstate，该公司专门从事战略和技术咨询。年复一年，Novstate 公司获得了同样的合同，这些合同最终几乎被视为专有合同，并赢得了新的合同。然而，竞争和获得公共市场的合法竞标制度是存在的，并且受到尊重。即使是 Everstate 的直接安全机构也不再完全公开，因为 Everstatan 和国际上的几家私营公司在其中发挥着越来越重要的作用，从多方参与军队（因规模缩小而面临挑战）到各种安全职能，如后勤或机场安检。

Everstate的正式国家官僚机构无力与这种新型的公共权力占有作斗争，除非像许多埃弗斯塔特人认为的那样，它 "实现了只有通过私人管理才能获得的效率"。事实上，首先，这种官僚机构的建立和设立是为了应对过去的状况。然后，随着它逐渐受到外包的影响，随着 Everstate 统治机构整体权力的削弱，它开始将外包视为一种常态，甚至视为一个革新的、具有前瞻性的官僚机构的标志。更有甚者，一些国家代表、政治家和政治任命的官员，以及一些高级公务员，越来越多地加入了这些外包公司。他们进入这个系统，就使这种极端形式的外包合法化了，因为他们在做出选择时，仍然拥有原来职位的身份。这样，进入极端外包体系的人在继续参与国家治理的过程中保留了原有的地位，同时他们又通过加入私营部门获得了新的地位、资源和特权。因此，他们构成了一个特殊的精英群体。

与此同时，由于同样的人保留同样的职能，而不允许通常的代际更替发挥作用，整个年龄段的埃弗拉斯坦年轻人，尽管受教育程度很高，却既没有被纳入政治权力机构，甚至也没有被公平地纳入外包机构。志愿服务和无偿实习得到了推广，这几乎是受过高等教育的新青年获得经验和工作的唯一途径，尽管这越来越多地只导致其他实习。因此，在 Everstate 中，社会向上流动的一个关键因素被阻断了。与此同时，长期以来一直是 Everstate 特色的正规现代官僚机构也开始销声匿迹，即使它还保留着自己的名称和伪装。

由于更新和复兴受阻，本应与新思想和社会演变保持联系的外包公司再也无法扮演这一角色。已经掌权的 Everstatan 精英集团当然不愿意看到自己的特权被削弱，否则又怎么可能呢？任何可能意味着（实际上或表面上）失去相关性的想法，都是在放弃作为精英群体消失的可能性，而这是他们无法接受的。恰恰相反，他们正在那些最初赋予他们精英地位的资源基础上，建立越来越大、越来越强大的据点。例如，"Novstate "不仅为治理机构提供建议，而且还提供治理服务，通常是在有顾问的领域，因为它在其 "朋友公司 "网络中联合了小型安保公司、准军事部队、高科技创业公司、生物技术实验室等--"朋友公司 "是一个源自社交网络的新商业概念。

因此，管理机构与精英集团之间任何新的谈判都是对公共权力更多占有的匆忙行为，并扩大了精英集团的据点。

与此同时，这些为排他性群体的利益而进行的斗争只会进一步增加整个社会的压力。

Everstate 所处的情况与流动性类似，但精英群体不同，即使有时群体之间存在联系，特别是通过 "朋友圈"。如果统治者的权力继续弱于精英阶层的权力，那么精英阶层就会继续侵占部分公共权力，而这种侵占方式只是被现有的社会政治模式和绕过仍然存在的公私分离准则的方式所掩盖。因此，新攫取的资源很可能仍然不足，从而对国家的基础设施、治理、军队的规模和表现，进而对统治者（国家、政府和议会以及协助前者执行任务的国家）的暴力垄断以及预算赤字造成影响。

在这种日益困难的条件下与精英集团谈判，只会导致公共财产被侵占，中央权力进一步削弱，从而导致精英集团的权力增加，形成恶性循环。然而，似乎别无选择。

因此，民众的不满情绪与日俱增。Everstate 系统的合法性已经开始受到损害。如果不做出任何改变，合法性面临的风险只会增加。

待续…

2212 EVT：公共资源和贷款人（Everstate的编年史）

Last episodes’ summary:在 2212 EVT、 Everstate (与我们现实中的国家相对应的理想类型，其目的是 预知 的 现代民族国家的未来)看到安装 人民的不满 因为它已成为 不安全 考虑到仍被误解的新情况的影响。三个相关现象导致埃弗斯塔坦政治当局无力提供安全保障。首先，"Everstate "面临着不断变化的资源组合，这意味着收入相对过低，而累积的威胁和压力导致成本和支出不断增加。再加上对形势的不了解和使用过去的方法，这就导致了长期和不断加深的 预算赤字和日益增长的流动性需求.公民个人也面临同样的挑战，这就更需要流动性。 

对流动性的需求和 "贷方网络 "精英集团

导致埃弗斯塔坦政治当局无力提供安全保障的第二个现象，是相关的新的公共资源侵占和中央公共权力的削弱，从而使各种精英集团获利.

一方面，Everstate 需要流动性，另一方面，不仅在 Everstate 内部，而且在全球范围内，潜在贷款人的一致性和相互依存性导致其相对稀缺，这赋予了 "贷款人网络 "强大的权力和精英地位。因此，银行、评级机构和各种基金以及为它们工作的人发现自己在与统治者（即人民、国家及其代议制政府和议会）的谈判中处于极为有利的地位。

反过来，这种讨价还价的地位又使这一放贷精英集团得以对公共权力进行新型的占有：通过税收收入本已不足的情况下，大量的国民收入被转移到全球范围内的这一放贷机构，包括所谓的影子银行系统。 无论利率高低，都要在市场上借贷--以及过度借贷、 支付这些利息，在放松管制和有利的货币政策方面给予馈赠，在破产情况下提供保 障，或更广泛地说，无论这些私人借贷者承担何种风险，都提供保护，实行有利的税收政 策，等等。

更糟糕的是，随着多年来情况的恶化，对流动资金的需求不断增加，国家的一些资源将不得不通过长期租赁和各种法律手段出售或转让给那些拥有必要流动资金的人：国内或国外的私人精英集团或外国政府。如果说这样的安排有望带来短期的缓解，那么从中长期来看，它们更有可能加速 Everstate 所陷入的恶性循环：更少的资源（被出售或长期租赁的资源）可能只意味着日后更少的收入，从而需要更多的流动资金。最后，这种安排也可以被看作是对公共财产的进一步侵占，这将削弱中央权力，从而为更多的公共权力侵占敞开大门。

并不是埃弗勒斯坦政府和议会真的想选择这种解决方案，而是他们还有什么其他解决方案可供选择呢？

至于目前的资源开采战略，如果 故态 因此，必须从人口中提取大部分资金。然而，由于人口压力越来越大，榨取的收入很可能不足以满足日益增长的收入和流动性需求。此外，由于埃弗斯塔特人越来越不满意，并感到相对匮乏，因此，如果他们看不到自己的境况有所改善或至少趋于稳定，或者不相信这种积极的演变是可能的，那么他们很可能会千方百计地抵制更多的税收。

在 Everstate 之前，大多数情况类似的国家都采取了这类政策。由于这是最近才出现的现象，因此无法真正评估此类政策的实际影响，但 Everstate 的理事机构认为 如果以前选择过该政策，则意味着 不可能那么糟糕。

此外，从 Everstatan 管理机构的角度来看，从公共财产的公共管理转变为商品的私人管理可能才是正确的解决方案，因为它符合自由主义的社会政治组织模式（其 "新自由主义"--20 世纪末、21 世纪初--版本）。这种模式难道没有凸显出国家与私营部门相比是多么的低效吗？难道这一点没有被反复证明，尤其是在苏联解体时？总之，没有其他可用的模式。因此，Everstatan 的管理机构认为，他们不仅在解决暂时的问题，而且还在做真正对国家有利的事情，也许他们以前就应该这样做。

考虑到 过去 在当前需求顽固不化的情况下，要采取经典的资源开采战略，还必须采取其他措施：求助于那些拥有所需资源的人，并请求他们的合作，即求助于精英群体。困难在于，与这些集团进行谈判会自动增加他们的权力和地位，这反过来又会加强他们的精英集团地位，甚至有可能创造这种地位（如果这种地位之前并不存在的话）。精英集团与统治者--这里指现代国家、民选管理机构和民族--之间旷日持久的斗争即将开始新的一幕。

待续...

——

* 希腊的情况显然是本段叙述的灵感来源，本段写于 2011 年春季。例如，参见埃莱娜-莫亚，"希腊开始出售岛屿土地以挽救经济,” 卫报，2010 年 6 月 24 日；George Petalotis，致《卫报》的信，"希腊是非卖品,” 卫报，2010 年 6 月 29 日；《每日电讯报》，"中国 "将向债务缠身的希腊投资数十亿美元2010 年 6 月 15 日；希腊驻华盛顿大使馆新闻办公室，"中国远洋接管比雷埃夫斯港"， 2009 年 10 月 1 日 (更新日期：2015 年 1 月 29 日 - 由于超链接指向 404 页面，且无法找到缓存版本，因此已将其删除。感兴趣的读者可以使用 此链接 访问所有希腊大使馆名单)；《今日疏浚》，"希腊：中远集团将斥资 $.07 亿美元升级比雷埃夫斯港口设施2010 年 7 月 15 日。

** 本段还使用了弗雷德-哈利迪的同质性原则、 重新思考国际关系关于弗雷德-哈利迪对国际关系和政治学的贡献，见 Alex Colas 和 George Lawson、 "弗雷德-哈利迪成就、矛盾、开放"千年》，第 39（2）卷，2010 年。

全球水安全

国家安全的战略预见和警告问题

鉴于2012年1月31日美国国家情报局局长詹姆斯-克拉珀（James R. Clapper）的 "为参议院情报特别委员会提供的关于美国情报界全球威胁评估的非保密声明"，其中指出 水安全 在有关章节中 重大的国家和非国家情报威胁 (第29页)，这是最初发表在《世界日报》上的一篇文章的更新版本。 水的编年史, 2011年12月8日。

全球水危机的出现似乎是一个几乎每天都被各行为体重申的事实，即使与恐怖主义等相比，致力于该主题的全球网络总流量仍然微不足道，正如下面两张图所示。

见证了这种重要性和相对缺乏认识的双重特点，例如，《国家地理》在2005年有一整个栏目专门讨论水危机，或者更确切地说，淡水危机，以促进提高人们的兴趣：《国家地理》的淡水倡议。. 它仍然是（2021年）作为 淡水危机.

世界水资源耗损情况（2005年数据）
世界水资源消耗（2005年数据）--地图由CC © Copyright SASI Group（谢菲尔德大学）和Mark Newman（密歇根大学）授权。

这场全球水危机不会放过任何一个国家，从最强大的国家，正如2011年12月4日再次强调的那样。 汤普森。威廉-德布伊斯，《西部的枯萎》（The Parching of the West 对美国来说，这是对更富有的国家，例如新加坡，它面临着一个""。缺少天然的水资源."同时Mapelcroft在2011年确定了 巴林、卡塔尔、科威特和沙特阿拉伯是 "世界上水资源最紧张的国家，"--各自在财富方面的排名都很靠前。 第3届、第34届、第1届、第14届、第41届，2010年国际货币基金组织.新兴国家也不能幸免：例如，印度面临着从污染到水枯竭的许多水问题，而最贫穷的国家有时会面临进一步的荒漠化。这种广泛而不懈的地理范围也进一步质疑从自决时期和三个世界的冷战世界观中继承下来的逐渐消失的发达国家-富国/发展中国家-穷国的认知模式，要求我们重新审视我们的看法，如果我们要理解当代的挑战和危机，并希望解决或更温和地缓解它们。

同时，世界各地的大学和智囊团的各种相关研究项目也得到了发展。作为指示。 Academia.edu参考文献 有100个项目、53所大学和39个学术期刊关注水问题。其中，自1991年以来，组织了一个世界水周，最初是由斯德哥尔摩Vatten AB，市政供水和污水处理供应商，代表斯德哥尔摩市（SIWI，历史）。它导致了 "世界水周 "的建立。 斯德哥尔摩国际水研究所 在1997年。据其组织者称，世界水周已成为 "全球水问题的年度焦点"。

世界经济论坛2012年全球风险报告
世界经济论坛2012年全球风险报告--按影响和可能性划分的风险

此外，《全球风险报告》已经确认了与水有关的风险。 世界经济论坛 (自2007年以来，达沃斯世界经济论坛（WEF-Davos）都有这样或那样的标签。 ǞǞǞ 2012年全球风险报告 该报告强调了水威胁的严重性，它现在属于五大风险：供水危机在可能性方面排名第五，而在影响方面排名第二。 涵盖的 "水安全 "已经被单独列出来了。 2011年全球风险报告 作为 "可能性和影响相结合的第10大风险"。该风险不仅被认为是非常可能的，而且还具有接近5000亿美元的预期影响。与2010年的感知影响相比（当时是针对水短缺--风险22--而不是水安全），感知影响从估计的不到400亿美元急剧上升。

重心和风险的相互联系--WEF 2012年全球风险报告

此外，在2011年，水安全风险被视为与其他八个风险相互关联，而在2012年，供水危机与十九个风险相关联，这要归功于报告在线呈现的非常有趣的互动方式所实现的数字。 水-粮食-能源的风险关系在2011年的报告中得到了充分的阐述，并有具体的倡议的好处：http://www.weforum.org/water。自2008年以来，水已被列入世界经济论坛全球理事会的议程。

世界经济论坛2011年全球风险报告
世界经济论坛2011年全球风险报告

同时，正如《2011年全球风险报告》所显示的相互关联性所预期的那样，水被广泛地视为冲突和争斗的原因，正如《纽约时报》最近的一篇博客所回顾的那样，""。水资源争夺的权力政治着重于水力霸权的想法，这是一个分析跨界水冲突的框架，由加拿大人提出的概念。 Mark Zeitoun博士 的东安格利亚大学。正如在一份文件中解释的那样 文章 在Zeitoun和Warner看来，"水力霸权是流域层面的霸权，通过资源控制战略实现，如资源获取、整合和遏制。这些战略是通过一系列战术（如胁迫-压力、条约、知识建设等）实施的，这些战术是在薄弱的国际体制背景下利用现有的权力不对称而实现的"（2006）。

事实上， 太平洋研究所的水和可持续性项目在其 世界水冲突年表地图 在互动地图上展示了225个水冲突的详尽年表，显示了其全球历史和地理范围。该项目确定的冲突始于苏美尔神话中讲述的公元前3000年左右的大洪水，这强调了水问题的另一个潜在的关键维度，即它与神话、象征主义和神圣的关系，在更大的文化维度上，如以下所规定的那样 罗伯托-梅尔维尔和克劳迪娅-西雷利 (2000).最近一次更新的冲突与2010年印度的暴力水事抗议有关，从而显示了水对国内问题的影响，而更常规的、有可能升级和战争的争端也没有被遗忘，例如印度和巴基斯坦的印度河争端（1947-1960年代）。

因此，我们有了这个全球水危机的要素：战争和对外国敌人的看法，秩序的瓦解和抗议，对粮食安全的威胁，以及更普遍的生命，以及象征和习惯的意义。这些无非是潜在的和出现的症状，可能导致安全的失败，这是统治者的使命。事实上，Moore（1978，22）"将当局的安全使命定义为包括三个要素：防止外敌，外敌是指不属于'我们'领域的东西，维护和平与秩序，以及促进'物质安全'，或'防止超自然、自然和人类对食物供应和其他习惯性日常生活的物质支持的安全'" （Lavoix，2010）。由于我们仍然生活在民族国家中，对绝大多数人来说，这种安全无非就是国家安全（常规安全往往指严格的军事事务，而非常规安全则被用于任何其他相关问题）。

为了避免这种不仅会造成直接的严重后果，而且会影响到合法性的安全失败，统治者（更主要的是所有可能受到影响或作为参与者的行为者）有一个过程和分析工具，帮助他们预测不确定的变化，从而防止它们，最多是减轻它们，或在这些变化成为机会时利用它们。这个过程被称为 "战略远见和警告"（SF&W）。它 "是一个有组织、有系统的过程，以减少对未来的不确定性（Fingar，2009）。它的目的是让政策制定者和决策者在做出决定时有足够的准备时间，以看到这些决定在最好的情况下得到实施（Davis; Grabo 2004; Knight, 2009）。因此，它必须帮助我们确定我们周围的变化在特定时期内最有可能发生的可信度边界，以便我们能够根据这些即将发生的变化，最好地协调我们的社会安全活动"（Lavoix, 2011）。

———-

参考文献

Academia.edu

戴维斯，杰克，"战略警告。如果惊奇是不可避免的，那么分析的作用是什么？"谢尔曼-肯特情报分析中心，不定期论文，第2卷，第1号，2010年6月28日访问。

德布伊斯，威廉，托姆勒。威廉-德布伊斯。 西方的枯萎, Tomdispatch.com, December 4, 2011.

Fingar, Thomas, "预测机会。利用智慧塑造未来和 "神话、恐惧和期望"，佩恩杰出讲座系列2009 减少不确定性：情报和国家安全，讲座3和1，FSI斯坦福，CISAC讲座系列，2009年10月21日和2009年3月11日，2010年6月28日访问。

新加坡政府。 PUB 新加坡的国家水务局.

Grabo, Cynthia M., Anticipating Surprise:扬-戈德曼编辑的《战略预警分析》，（马里兰州兰哈姆：美国大学出版社，2004年5月）。

骑士，肯尼斯，"专注于预见性。采访美国负责预警的国家情报官员，"麦肯锡季刊，2009年9月，2010年6月28日访问。

Lavoix, Helene, "使得21世纪的安全。情报与战略预见和警告，"RSIS工作文件第207号，2010年8月。

Lavoix, Helene, Ed. 战略预见和警告。驾驭未知领域.新加坡:rsis-cens, 2011.

马佩尔克罗夫特，"Maplecroft指数认为巴林、卡塔尔、科威特和沙特阿拉伯是世界上用水压力最大的国家。主要新兴经济体和石油富国通过非洲 "抢地 "输出水问题以确保粮食安全," 25/05/2011.

Melville, Roberto 和 Cirelli, Claudia, "LA CRISIS DEL AGUA.Sus dimensiones ecológica, cultural y política"。(la crise de l'eau.它的生态、文化和政治层面), Memoria # 134 en abril del año 2000; 进一步的翻译.

Moore, Barrington, Injustice:The Social Bases of Obedience and Revolt, (London: Macmillan, 1978).

国家地理》杂志。 国家地理杂志的淡水倡议.

Nuwer, Rachel, "水资源争夺的权力政治"纽约时报博客，2011年11月28日。

太平洋研究所。 世界水冲突年表地图

斯德哥尔摩国际水研究所, "历史"

世界经济论坛。

  • 世界经济论坛2006年全球风险报告。
  • 世界经济论坛2007年全球风险报告。
  • 世界经济论坛2008年全球风险报告》。
  • 世界经济论坛2009年全球风险报告。
  • 世界经济论坛2010年全球风险报告》。
  • 世界经济论坛2011年全球风险报告》。
  • 世界经济论坛2012年全球风险报告》。

维基百科，"按人均GDP（购买力平价）排列的国家名单."

World Mapper，"水的消耗地图"。 水系列，地图323,

Zeitoun, Mark, and Warner, Jeroen, " Hydro-hegemony - a framework for analysis of trans-boundary water conflicts," Water Policy Vol 8 No 5 pp 435-460 © IWA Publishing 2006 doi:10.2166/wp.2006.054.

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