The Islamic State is one of the contemporary most serious and novel threats to the transitioning (or not) current world order. The fact that war is part and parcel of the Islamic State and its Caliphate or Khilafah (خلافة) very existence is only one of the many challenges and novelties that most of the rest of the world must face.

The merging of different wars and issues is another mammoth challenge. For example, the wars in Libya, Syria and Iraq merged with the Islamic State war. When it became clear that a new war had started, one key question was to find out is there were different theatres of operations for a theatre of war itself limited to the Middle East and North African Region, or if we should revise the way we apply those strategic concepts, or if the very concept of the theatre of war, understood as an ideal-type of a defined quasi-independent system (Carl Von Clausewitz, 关于战争, 第五册,第二章) 由于哈里发和它对我们所处的全球化网络世界的利用,也需要修订。这些问题在2017年5月仍然至关重要,尽管许多人似乎开始相信--有点早?- 打击伊斯兰国的战争已经胜利。

As far as the theatres of operations are concerned, who are those who define them? If we use the American definition of “theatre” – “The geographical area for which a commander of a geographic combatant command has been assigned responsibility. (JP 1-02. SOURCE: JP 1)” – then, again, who defines the geographical area as well as determines when responsibility for command should be attributed? If there is no US or coalition theater, does that mean that there is indeed no theater, for now? But what about the future? Are concepts exclusively defined in geographical terms sufficient? Or might they enhance the probability that we would remain on the defensive, granting the initiative to the enemy?

Those are only samples of the many questions that must asked before we can hope finding proper answers and strategies, not only militarily and across governments but also across societies and actors.

We explore here those concerns and work towards providing actionable strategic foresight and warning on the Islamic State war, building upon and looking for best ways to incorporate the more specific War in Syria, the War in Libya and other current and future issues (and related sections).

每日监测整个社会媒体对伊斯兰国的战争。 迦勒底的战争标志.



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由Dr Helene Lavoix (MSc PhD Lond)发布

Helene Lavoix博士伦敦大学博士(国际关系) ,是Red Team Analysis Society的总裁/CEO。她专门研究国际关系、国家和国际安全问题的战略预见和早期预警。她目前的工作重点是乌克兰战争、国际秩序和中国的崛起、行星越轨行为和国际关系、战略预见和预警方法、激进化以及新技术和安全。